Pedro Alvarez Becoming A Serious Concern
I don't really disagree with Tim's general point here, which is that Pedro Alvarez should stick in the majors. But I do think we've reached the point with Alvarez where there are some pretty serious problems that can't be hand-waved away.
Tim compares Alvarez to Aramis Ramirez and Jose Bautista, who both struggled early in their careers. But frankly, I don't think comparisons to those players are flattering to Alvarez. Although they both went on to have success, Ramirez and Bautista have excuses for their early struggles that Alvarez doesn't have. Ramirez was called up to the big leagues at an absurdly young age, then jerked around between Class AAA and the big leagues for the better part of three years. Bautista missed a ton of development time due to the Rule 5 process. And while he eventually had success, it was success that no one saw coming. So if you want to compare Alvarez to Bautista, you've really got some problems, because what it really seems like you're saying is that Alvarez can someday miraculously become a great player after making some adjustments to his swing. Bautista is a historically-unique player, and we shouldn't expect, or even hope for, any other player to develop the way he did.
Now, there's no doubt that some of the 'Get rid of Pedro!' stuff you hear on talk radio is way over the top. The guy began his pro career less than three years ago, and it's true that baseball history is filled with guys who struggled initially but eventually made it.
Unfortunately, it's also filled with guys who struggled initially and never made it. And that includes early-first-round draft picks. And looking back on it, Alvarez's minor-league profile is filled with warning signs that I and others were probably guilty of worrying too little about, due to his pedigree. He did beat up on minor-league pitching, due in part to his tremendous power, but he also struck out way too frequently.
This year, he's hitting .206/.276/.303. That's not, in itself, a good reason to give up on him. But there's also the way he looks out there. His strike-zone judgment is just awful. It's easy for pitchers to get him to swing and miss, and anything low and out of the strike zone, forget it. It reminds me of the way people used to talk about Craig Wilson. Right now, Alvarez actually is as bad as Wilson's detractors thought he was - he has no clue how to harness his power, to the point that it hardly has even showed up this year.
It is possible that Alvarez could go on a tear starting tomorrow. If there's anything that we know about his career so far, it's that he's prone to looking clueless for extended periods and then going on massive homer binges. But at this point, I wish the front office had stuck with its evaluation of him and left him in Class AAA for awhile. (I'm not sure they should send him back now, because I don't want him to be jerked back and forth.) The Pirates only called him up because they needed a bat, and not because they believed his problems were fixed.
It would be ridiculous to give up on Alvarez at this point. But we're also past the point where concerns about him should be dismissed. He might still become a great player. Or his problems making contact might eat him alive. Either one is possible. Is he a bust? No. Is there a strong chance he could become one? Unfortunately, yes, there is.
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I still believe Alvarez was called up too early, and that lack of complete development is the source of his problems.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 12:17 PM EDT reply actions
This is a
realistic, sober (and sobering—sorry cocktails!) assessment. I’m leaning toward the worst case scenario, but then I never liked him from the beginning. Smoak was my preference that draft.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
But Smoak started slow too.
In fact, Pedro had a WAY better rookie year. Smoak’s rookie year was every bit as bad as this year is for Pedro, as he went .218/.307/.371 while playing most of the year in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Majors. And he had an even bigger problem with Ks, striking out about 1/3 of the time.
This year, Smoak’s starting to pick it up. There’s still plenty of hope he can turn it around. We can see that with him, because we’re not emotionally attached – Smoak isn’t our guy. Pedro is, and he’s struggling, and it makes it easy for us to worry about him even while saying that Smoaks has his whole career ahead of him and will probably be fine.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 6, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Pedro showed the same weaknesses in the minors that he’s showing now, whereas Smoak’s minor league career didn’t have those kind of red flags. That’s a non-trivial difference.
by Vlad on Aug 6, 2011 7:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I was only starting to understand baseball at all back then, so I didn’t have a preference in that draft. I just remember everyone calling for him to be called up so early, and I was adamant that he should not, and would not be called up. Obviously, I was entirely wrong since he was called up, but I remain stubborn in saying that he should not have been called up when he was. He needed to get his K% down.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I am not offended by sobriety....
nor do I necessarily embrace it (except in civil discourse!).
But that’s just me *
*Kids, don’t try this at home. Trained professional on closed test track.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 6, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Humphrey Bogart was...
"The whole world is three drinks behind."
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
since the recall
10 for 50 18K, 3BB. Although, he has gone opposite field with some hits which is encouraging. He seems at times to be slightly more agressive, although he still swings through a lot of pitches he should be hitting. Idk, Im not ready to start bashing Pedro. If he is still hitting like this by August of next year, than yeah, we got a problem. Until then, I will take the optimistic side
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
first pitch hitting stats
Petey has a slash of 400/403/646. Everyone keeps telling him to be aggressive and maybe this is why. SSS and all but you really cant argue with those numbers. Its over the course of 65AB. I still like those numbers, so hopefully Pedro realizes that he is in fact, allowed to swing at the first pitch more often
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
lol i feel like im rambling but to add on
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=alvarpe01&year=Career&t=b
just look at those numbers when he is ahead in the count, his OPS is through the roof
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
When a player strikes out 40% of the time
he better have good numbers on counts on which a strike is not the third one.
by WestCoastBuc on Aug 6, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
.154 OPS! on 0-2 count
that is embarassing. I’m pretty sure there are many high schoolers who could do better than that. I don’t see why he can’t just shorten up on 0-2 and 1-2, his entire line would wake up
heh this entirely. i really think thats his only glaring problem. his approach in 2 strike counts is still, by and large, horrible.
if he would shorten up as you say and correct that, look to just put the ball in play rather than pull it, he would be instantly better.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Nobody does well in 0-2 counts. I’d think the bigger problem is that he gets to so many of those counts in the first place.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 6, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
Any hitter will have better numbers before two strikes. The problem is that he lets hittable first pitches go by, swings at bad ones, is then down 0-2 and gone on a fadeaway. That, repeated over a game, a week, a month, a season or a (very brief) career, is a surefire recipe for, well, a very brief career. The problem I’m seeing is that he can’t seem to correct the above. In fact, he looks like the proverbial doe in the headlights. It may get better. Or it may not.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
True
but his is absurdly bad.
Cutch career .432 OPS
Jones .376
Derrek Lee .402
Mark Reynolds .354
Pena .237
Pedro can’t even match these guys on 1-2 (.212) and barely tops them on 2-2 (.470). There is no excuse for why he can’t easily add 100-200 points in these situations. Obviously the homerun swing isn’t aiding him at all against sliders in the dirt.
Brandon Wood: .285
Yes, Brandon Wood the historic K machine is still significantly better than Pedro in 0-2 counts. And that’s with striking out 53.5 percent of those at bats.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
(Pedro strikes out 63.9 percent of the time in an 0-2 count. Geeze.)
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
This.
rec.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 6, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
he probably saw what happened to overbay and said not so much
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Well done, Charlie.
And looking back on it, Alvarez’s minor-league profile is filled with warning signs that I and others were probably guilty of worrying too little about, due to his pedigree.
No, I think you, Vlad and some notable others here passed plenty of warnings about Alvarez about his performance at the plate and in the field.
He wasn’t ready at all one day in ‘10, and then the next one he was recalled because the Pirates just HAD to get him to the majors to join other talented young players like Cutch, Walker and Tabata. Then they had to recall him a few weeks ago when Hurdle et al. admitted they really didn’t want to due to his deficiencies in the field and at the plate that had not been remedied.
This has been a mess since midnight August whatever in ‘08 when he supposedly agreed to a contract and then didn’t and then….
My feeling is that they need to be selective with his starts the rest of the year, keep working hard with him on his mechanics and approach at the plate, and then this winter get him moved across the diamond to be a first basemen.
I still have hopes that he will be a good player for us.
パトリック
My Fanpost from April 10....
of this year saying essentially the same thing.
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/4/10/2101960/pedro-alvarez-inside-the-numbers
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
d todd: This part from the April article was really interesting for me:
Simply said, whether you agree with the premise or not, without his numbers from September of last year which may have come against sub-standard pitching, Pedro has not shown very much with the bat thus far in his career. That certainly doesn’t mean he won’t. But, relying on the “he’s a slow starter” seems like too convenient of an answer. His at-bats haven’t looked good to me so far this year and he only has one extra base hit. Fangraphs shows in GB% similar to last year and LD% slightly higher by the same amount FB% is lower, so nothing is evident there.
Maybe it’s just a slow start and he’ll pick up his September pace as the weather warms up today. I hope so. Doesn’t mean I’m not a little concerned.
パトリック
Yup
Go back and read them. Lots of folks warned of this, as well as his defensive challenges. Specific alternatives, such as Smoak, were identified and even begged for. Plenty saw these struggles as not a only possible, but likely.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
the single most ironic/funny thing about this whole ordeal
First let me preface that I agree 100% with your post, he’s stubborn and probably too cocky right now and that may be the cause of his strike zone issues. I believe whole heartily in this simply because of last night. It was a prime example of a guy who is drinking to much of his own kool-aid. “I’m El Friggin Toro, i can pull that low and away breaking ball into the right field seats, well carp its another DP”. I think this may be a cat that needs to have a season like this to get better.
What i find highly entertaining about this whole ordeal is that almost to a man, the people who were screaming for him to be brought up, are now saying he’s a bum and will never be more then a minor leaguer.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 12:40 PM EDT reply actions
derp
wellcarpcrap its another DP"
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I liked it better when he was saying “well carp”.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
carp suck
terrible fish
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly why it’s a good thing to say out of frustration.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree completely...
with your last paragraph. Virtually every media guilty of that for sure.
I don’t agree with the first paragraph saying “he’s stubborn and probably too cocky right now…” From my personal experience and from everything I’ve been told and read, the guy works incredibly hard, is receptive to coaching and teaching and is a good teammate.
His actions on the field are speaking loudly enough right now. We don’t need to be making up attitude issues that don’t exist.
The Hammer Speaks
Extra Innings
Twitter: @DTonPirates and @hammerspeaks
im not saying he has a bad attitude, im saying he thinks to much of himself.
look at all three dp balls. all three were balls he tried to pull, refusing to go with them.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I dont think he made a conscious decision not to pull the ball...
With poor pitch recognition, he is putting basically the same swing on every pitch. It is not because he chooses not to go the other way, he just isnt picking the ball up and reacting.
I agree with dtoddwin
I think it is quite the opposite. I’d bet on confusion, frustration, some measure of fear and a rapidly declining confidence. He is overmatched up here, and I wish they had resisted the injury provoked urge and left him at AAA. And although I know there is no real relationship, because the pitching decline is the root cause, his arrival coincided with the team’s performance beginning to slip, which can’t be a positive feeling for him or for his teammates. It is a bad scene all the way around.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
I'm concerned about Alvarez
I’m concerned, and not bat-shit crazy about his existence, character, baseball play, etc.
s.zielinski
huh?
are you saying your not super anti pedro or have concerns about the above?
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
Something like that. The bashers can get back to the rest of us when Pedro has 1500-2000 PAs.
s.zielinski
gotcha
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that sending Alvarez down at this point should be charachterized as
“jerking him around”. His stay in Indy this year was more of an extended rehab assignment than an actual demotion and his play at the major-league level this year has been poor enough to warrant a demotion. Posters mention that he has already proven that he can handle AAA pitchers, but NH mentioned that a lot of his hits this year at that level were not well struck.
Beyond the possibility that Pedro could benefit from additional development time, I see two additional advantages to sending him down. It gives us a chance to get an extended look at either Brandon Wood or Steve Pearce. Wood has hit a little better than Pedro this year and his fielding has been much better. Pearce has not been good but has never really been given the chance to get regular ABs at the ML level. It is probably against the odds that either one of these guys would develop into solid players, but it seems to me under the circumstances it would be worthwhile to find out.
Since Pedro will still have an option left next season, we might at least think about keeping him in the minors long enough for us to get an extra year of control. This could be huge for us a few years down the road if Pedro actually does develop into the player we thought he could become. I’m not saying we should leave him down there if he demonstrates beyond a reasonable doubt that he is ready for a promotion, but right now it does not appear at all clear that he belongs in the bigs and I don’t see much advantage to the Bucs to keeping him up here.
well
how much more of wood do you really need to see. is been either in the line up or on the bench for the better part of the last two months. while pierce recently returned he has been a regular with this team for quiet a while. there is probably a reason why he’s not an every day guy. while the extra year of control is appetizing, i personally would rather have him suck ass at the big league level and learn he isn’t the next stargell and have him learn to play within himself both at the plate and in the field.
those are things he wont learn in AAA.
and when did nh say lots of his hits were weak? i heard hurdle say that he wanted to see a lot of ab strung togeather with certain results or metrics met but nothing along those lines
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s funny you mention Brandon Wood, since I’m sure Angel fans were once told that his early career struggles were the norm and he would eventually develop into a star. Pedro COULD become Mike Schmidt. But for every Schmidt or ARam there are so many more Brandon Woods.
Brandon Wood only acts in favor to the “don’t jerk him around” argument.
In 5 ML seasons, Wood has only collected 684 PA. He’s probably a bust for sure now, since he’s spent so much time getting bounced back and forth, but who knows? Maybe if the Angels had been a little more patient with him he could have worked on some of his strikeout issues. He was jerked up and down five times before finally getting an extended look last year at the age of 25. You don’t think that had any effect on his career trajectory?
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 6, 2011 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Brandon Wood's 2010 season at the plate
Was the worst season by a player with that many PA’s in 99 years. Not since Bill Bergen put up his 4th such season in 1911 did a player come to bat that often and post an OPS that low.
HOWEVER, I think he has really made big strides this year towards actually establishing himself as at least a ML-caliber bench player. since the end of May, Wood has posted a .777 OPS with a .187 ISO, a 9.7% walk rate and “only” a 24% K rate. I’m not saying he will ever be the guy who hit 43 HRs at Rancho Cucamonga as a 20-year old but maybe the extended look he’s getting this year is showing that he might be learning how to hit big league pitching. He rarely looks overmatched and his pitch recognition is better. His track record is what it is-historically bad-but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a solid contributor.
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 6, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Brandon Wood wRC+ by month:
March/April: 14
May: 31
June: 106
July: 89
August: 380
Clearly, Wood needs to play in August, alongside Ciriaco and his career 163 wRC+. Man do I love small sample sizes.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know how you figured that out about Wood being the worst since Bergan
but thanks for that little tidbit. Thanks also for the additional information about his performance this season. I hope we get the chance to see if his resurgence this season is for real or just a statistical aberration. I’ve always liked players who join the Pirates and exceed the expectations we had for them at that time.
Yeah, 2010 was terrible for Wood
But that’s my entire point as well…they jerked him between the Majors and AAA for years before even giving him a real shot in 2010. He was set up to fail, so of course he’s probably gonna blow it. We need to set Pedro up to succeed, and if he fails, he fails, but we can at least say it wasn’t because he was jerked around too much.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 6, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, let’s look at the original comparison of Aramis Ramirez too.
In 1998, he was called up well before he was ready due to some Dave Littlefield bungling and the failure to protect Joe Randa in the expansion draft, leaving a hole at 3B. He was 20 and CLEARLY not ready, having only 198 PAs in AAA after skipping AA entirely.
In ’99 he was a September call-up and again performed poorly.
In 2000 he was brought up, sent down, and brought up again and performed poorly.
In 2001 the team gave him consistent ABs and he rewarded them with an .885 OPS.
2002 was a step back, but the team stuck with him in the Majors (partly, I’m sure, because he was out of options).
2003 he started hitting well again before The Trade That Shall Not Be Mentioned and he’s been pretty damn good ever since.
I think A-Ram is a great example of giving a guy with pedigree a chance to show what he can do. Yes, by 2003 the team’s hand was forced, but they had to let him sink or swim and he’s been able to swim ever since.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 6, 2011 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Bonifay was GM in 1998. Fear of committing to young players was a signature trait of the Bonifay/Lamont Pirates.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 6, 2011 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
If I recall correctly...
and I may be wrong, but wasn’t 2002 the year he messed up his ankle early in the season and battled it the rest of the year?
Another way to look at it is
that Wood has been better than Pedro by a rather wide margin this season. Whoever is playing the best ball is not a totally unreasonable criteria for deciding who should be the starter on a ML baseball team.
I am sure that there was a post on this site indicating that NH had said that several of Pedro’s hits had been cheap or something to that effect. I am not sure if he actually did say that though.
Agree
But even though he has looked lost at the plate, it’s his all around game that bothers me. He has not been good in the field and his base running hasn’t been good either. He really needs to work on his entire game. I really don’t know what the best is for him at this point, stay up or go back down, but I know the teams record isn’t very good with him in the lineup and when you are trying to actually compete that’s not a good thing. I do know it is disheartening to watch him play right now, those double plays made me sick and wish he actually would’ve struck out instead, those were rally killers. I won’t count him out at this point though but I also won’t count on him to become what we all thought he could be either.
Pedro is ready for MLB pitching...
He crushed it at the end of the year last year and this year did well against minor league pitching. Maybe he could learn to cut down on strikeouts in the minors but face it his time in Pittsburgh is now. He needs to learn how to hit MLB pitching and only one way of doing that. Send him out there day in and day out. Keep your fingers crossed. The most hype since Barry Bonds could be the biggest flop since Bullington.
by Joey Mooney on Aug 6, 2011 12:59 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Honestly,
I think those three DP’s are getting blown way out of proportion. I’d much rather have him make contact than strike out, and the fact that he made contact three times and each time hit it right at some one is alot more luck I think than anything else. If two of those grounders find a hole (and at least two of them were hit pretty damn hard) then were all talking about how pedro had a great night and grabbed 3 or 4 RBI’s. You can talk about how he shouldn’t be pulling the ball, etc, etc, but only one of those was a weak roller, and the others he hit pretty well. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be a concern, but I don’t think his play last night warrants all this benching bust talk. Hopefully, he gets better, but I dont the sky’s falling cause he grounded into a few DP’s.
when you leave
at a minimum of 7 men on base, its not getting blown out of porpotion. they were all ralley killers. did he make hard contact? yeah, did the 2bman make one hell of a play on at least one? yeah, but those arent the points, the point is they were all ralley killers.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
so he killed a few rallies
in 9 innings rather than over of the course of idk 27 innings? how are they any different?
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
when your looking to punch back its pretty big, particularly the bases loaded one.
that was right after they put up a 6 spot, table was set to have a big inning.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
right after they put up a 6 spot
so now because our pitching sucks, were going to scrutinize Pedro even more for not plating home a few runs. We still lost by 10. He ain’t on the mound, and him driving in 3-4 runs would not have won us the game. In the grand scheme of things, yes, maybe if we score there the whole game is different but in the end, were not going to win games allowing 15 runs. And because of this Pedro should not be scrutinized any further.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
omfg
thats not the point, we had a chance to bail out the pitching and it didnt happen. im AM NOT SAYING PEDRO LOST THE GAME
ffs
im saying thats why people are all pised about the three dp’s and rightly so
jesus
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
im saying thats why people are all pised about the three dp’s and rightly so
its fair to be upset over hitting into 3 dp but players kill rallies all the time. it just so happens that pedro did it multiple times. i dont see the big deal other than it wouldve made no difference to the end result
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
the big deal
is that each time he was presented with the pitch in that location, he did the same thing.it was automatic. thats why this article is up…that and it charlie….and he’s like the man er something
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
i’m still missing the big deal here. he left guys on base and because guys were on base his groundouts were DPs inside of just groundouts.
so why dont we get mad at pedro when he groundouts now regardless of guys on base. were getting upset because he didnt come through in a certain situation 3 seperate times. yet when has pedro ever proven to come through in said situations.
we know he is struggling, what was everyone expecting? a slam or a bases clearing double?
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
yup
because everyone who was screaming to bring him back up doesnt want to look like a fool….
nevermind that he did hit pretty well against the cubbies, although he did strike out his fair share too. but again if hes getting htis i dont understand the issue with the k’s. dude cant have an obp of 750.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Its big in one game, yes,
and it sucks. But I think its as much luck as anything else, and over a full season it doesn’t really matter. I was bummed as hell last night, but I certainly wasn’t ready to tie pedro to a stake and set him on fire. He’s been looking better (better! not good) at the plate the last couple days, he’s been making solid contact, and thats an improvement.
when have i ever said sale the pedro
point it out where im being serious. i have been one of this guys biggest defenders.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Damn...people...
looks like a lynch mob in here. The Pirates left 16 runners on base last night…that’s AFTER Pedro erased 3 of them. So, why isn’t the rest of the roster getting the same treatment? I didn’t see or hear the game, but I can read a boxscore. They had 24 baserunners last night, and Cutch and Doumit had just as many chances with runners in scoring position (TWO).
Find something better to bitch about.
ok
i havent slept in two days and my netflix isnt working
#fml
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
No!
It’s Pedro’s fault. If he’d have driven in all the runners that were on when he came up . . . uh . . . we’d have lost by only two!!
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 6, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
hooray for netflix finallaly working
someone wake me up at 7pm…
oh ffs
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
The
slowest bat I have ever seen. Can’t hit the fastball, can’t hit offspeed pitches. What a bust.
Paydro makes Chad Hermansen look like a Hall of Famer. I don’t think Paydro takes instruction well. He is being told to go to left center, so he rolls three ground balls into DP’s.
El Toro is El Busto.
Slowest bat you've ever seen?
You must not have seen very much baseball then. Or ever watched Brad Eldred try to hit.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 6, 2011 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions
charlie....bubba
they have this thing when you make the posts called the jump…its pretty cool. you put like one para up top and the rest below the little jump line thingy, and the piece gets shortened to save space on yer front page. not being trying to be a wisenhimer, just dint know if you knew about it.
and if you spell check wisenhimer, it comes up Eisenhower…coincidence i think not.
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
I know about it. I just don’t really like making people click twice if they don’t want to, unless it’s a really enormous post.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 6, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
to each his own
" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009
by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 6, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Possibly a better analogy for Pedro . . .
Troy Glaus.
Like Pedro, Glaus struggled when he first came up. He got called up later in the year so he got only 165 ABs. He had a 48 OPS+ and fanned a third of the time. The next year he had a huge month in April (1.120 OPS), like Pedro did late last year. He went into an equally huge slump in May, with a .365 OPS. He started hitting in early June, slumped again after a week or so, then finally got going for good in July, at which point he had just a little fewer ABs than Pedro has now.
Glaus was also pretty similar to Pedro overall. He had great power, didn’t hit for a high avg., walked a good bit and fanned a lot. He wasn’t a great hitter, but was very good until back problems started plaguing him.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Is that good or bad?
I wouldn’t mind troy glaus stats but fans might want more.
by Joey Mooney on Aug 6, 2011 2:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It’s better than what we’re getting now, but it’s probably realistic.
I don’t know exactly at what point Glaus’ back problems started being an issue. I think he had some other injury problems, too. I’m just going by memory on that, but his career was shorter than it should have been.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 6, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Troy Glaus was a fantastic player when healthy. I don’t think anyone would be opposed to Pedro turning out that way.
by thecheeseisblue on Aug 6, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Before his injury, Glaus had a career triple-slash of .253/.357/.497, was a two time Silver Slugger winner and a three time All-Star. I’d take that from Pedro, yeah.
(Hell, Glaus was a good player even after his injury. Post-injury he was a .256/.359/.480 hitter and as recently as last year he put up a .240/.344/.400 line.)
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 6, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, Glaus is a much better comparison. I wouldn’t mind if he had Glaus’ career.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 6, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the injury issues earlier this season has
been a real factor in slowing Pedro’s development. He finished 2010 on the upswing, and then early this season goes down for a significant period of time. He returns while the club is contending for the division lead in late July, and may just be pressing too much at the plate and defensively.
He’s still young, but I would expect to see improvement the rest of this season, then take a larger stride in 2012.
Pedro
I can’t help but to keep thinking the whole situation with Pedro and the Pirates has been tainted since day one.
The controversy over his signing with Scott Boras was the beginning,
You almost get the feeling it was never a correct match, but it’s still a bit too early to tell.
Pedro can either be sent down or left in the big leagues
for some kind of “trial by fire” coaching, while filling the hole at third. I don’t think the problem is that he can’t hit major league pitching, it’s just that he’s an unfinished product. Look at his approach pre-injury to post-recall. April and May, Pedro went out whacking, and whiffing a huge percentage of the time. He had trouble recognizing balls and strikes, and couldn’t survive a two-strike count for the life of him. During his stint in AAA, Pedro clearly worked on a number of his issues. He’s swinging less in zero and one strike counts, and shortening up his swing to foul off two-strike pitches. Nowadays, you do see a lot of six-seven pitch ABs that end in a strikeout. As frustrating as that is, it’s progress. But it’s not complete. Pedro needs to learn to recognize pitches early, especially breaking balls, and recognize sliders, well, at all. The book on him has basically been throw sliders low and off the plate. He needs to learn to take pitches in two-strike counts, and not just foul them off because, hey, he has two strikes on him. Ultimately, Pedro’s hitting approach is poor, but improved. Once he becomes comfortable seeing major-league pitching and being able to make contact, he will improve. He can do that at AAA and Brandon Wood can play third for the Bucs, or he can do that in the majors, hoping that he figures it out quickly. It doesn’t much matter, as the problem is his approach, not the difficulty of the opposing pitchers. Pedro will improve. Pedro is 24. We’ll have to live with his struggles, because eventually, he will figure it out and be a very menacing hitter.
Tough stuff Charlie...
that needed to be said. I’m conflicted about Pedro to the point of not longer knowing what to think. And I’ve been fighting a bias since he was drafted. Specifically, my employer fields a pretty fair SEC baseball program so I see quite a bit of conference baseball action both live and on TV. Over the years I’ve come to the belief that SEC hitters are generally overrated whereas it concerns Major League potential. There are exceptions, but it seems to me that most of those (e.g., Albert “Joey” Belle, Will Clark, Rafael Palmero) are from a different era.
"Never mistake motion for action." - Ernest Hemingway
The interesting aspect in all of this to me is how the front-office evaluates this going into next year..
No one’s going to cut Pedro and trading him likely doesn’t make much sense either, but at what point do we move on from considering 3rd base a locked up position for the next few years if nothing changes? End of this season? Middle of next season? ’13?
Not that we close the door on Pedro, but we look at things realistically and admit to ourselves that we don’t have a quality third baseman and we need to get one.
I’m going to re-hash an age old debate here, but Walker’s defense would probably be a massive upgrade from Pedro’s. I think he has hit enough to be tolerable at 3rd if his reported third base defense is as good as it was advertised in the Minors.
Again, I’m not necessarily advocating this, but these are the types of questions we have to start figuring out sooner rather than later. Texas probably felt the same way about Chris Davis before finally conceding he’d never be the 40 HR guy in Arlington they were hoping for.
Agree with moving Walker to 3rd and giving Pedro a shot at 1st
How do the Bucs implement moving Pedro to 1st this in this day and age? Shouldn’t he play winter ball and learn the 1B position skills, not wait until spring training? Is that allowable for someone at his service level? If so, would the Bucs assign someone to coach his plate approach over the winter and assign someone to work on his conditioning?
by Central*Scrutinizer on Aug 7, 2011 3:10 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem then becomes who plays second, though? Right now Walker is an above-average second baseman, the Pirates have Lee at first, and Alvarez is a below average third baseman who would be even worse at 3B. There’s nobody who could really take over at 2B for Walker at the moment, either, unless you want to see Pedro Ciriaco getting regular playing time.
Long term, it probably makes sense to move Pedro to first (assuming he hits well enough to warrant continued playing time at all), but in the immediate future I don’t see it happening.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 7, 2011 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions
*Even worse at 1B
Also, to answer your question, I believe that technically anyone can play fall and winter baseball. I know teams send Major Leaguers there all the time to work on a new position or to get back up to speed after a season-ending injury or that type of thing. I might be wrong, but I THINK anyone can go.
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 7, 2011 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions
He's probably not ready
But I think they’d give Chase a long look at second. I don’t agree with them moving Walker off second, but if they were to shuffle people around, I think that would be their move, at least if they weren’t going to go outside the organization.
Chase to 2nd would be my preference
and other options are Wood and Cedeno. Primary goal should be to improve defensive range at 2nd.
by Central*Scrutinizer on Aug 7, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I whole heartedly disagree with this post,
2011 is over, 2012 is probably another under .500 as well. You ride Pedro to the end, if he doesn’t start producing by mid 2013 I can understand benching him but he is way too young for this type of talk. The replacement options are complete jokes and you don’t abandon 24 year old first round picks, this post is completely against the build long term montra.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Aug 6, 2011 10:32 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
In fact, I think you argued just the opposite by saying in your opening sentence “I don’t really disagree with Tim’s general point here, which is that Pedro Alvarez should stick in the majors.”
www.stealingfirstbase.com
Twitter: @stealing1stbase
by Stealing First Base on Aug 7, 2011 4:11 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess I misunderstood part of the post...
…concerning the part about rather having him in AAA if it weren’t for jerking him around. What I’m saying I would start Pedro until at least mid 2013 before I thought there was a major problem. I believe his track record pre 2011 gives him that right.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Aug 7, 2011 8:22 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

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