Analysis: What happened to Pirates' pitching?

Dejan Kovacevik analyzes the Pirates pitching to try and figure out what is going on. It's pretty good work by Dejan and it's one of the first attempts I've read where a member of the mainstream Pittsburgh media uses advance stats to see what's going on beneath the surface.

10 months ago Slick1 9 comments 0 recs |

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i think Maholm's comment sums it up best

by white angus on Aug 8, 2011 12:10 PM EDT reply actions

Sure it's nice to see him use advanced stats

but the only one that was out of line was the strand rate. I mean, really, ooo we’re 6 points of BABIP above average with what has been a good defense… is that really due for any regression? Not that I see.

by Mr. E on Aug 8, 2011 1:17 PM EDT reply actions

The problem is that DK was looking at the wrong cutoff point...

he was using July 25th because that’s when the losing started. However when you break out the numbers the regression started in the beginning of July. I tried expaining that but he was dead set on using the 25th as a cut off. OK, going off memory because I looked these up a couple of nights ago, Mar – Jun the BABIP was .269, HR/FB – 7.9 and strand rate – 79%. Maholm and Mortong started regressing in July. When you take those numbers and look at the last 14 days (which DK has in his article) it’s becoming apparent that this truly is regression and the numbers are just evening out. The last 7 days is even worse: BABIP – .335, strand rate – 56.8% and HR/FB – 20.8 and those numbers bring the season totals to BABIP – .292 (ML avg .295), strand rate – 75.1% (ML avg – 72.5%) and HR/FB – 9.9% (usually regresses to around 10% even the ML avg is 9.1%). So in other words, this piss poor stretch has just about completed a regression to the mean that began in July; not July 25th.

#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!

by Slick1 on Aug 8, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

regression?

this isnt regression, its a flat out implosion of unmatched proportions. now everyones scared of throwing strikes, they are trying to nibble on the corners, not getting the calls, and falling behind, when they come back in the zone the batters know what is coming.

least thats what i think, i could be wrong….chances are i am but just my thoughts.

" Lord Stanley, scratch thier names on your fabled cup" Mike Lange june 12, 2009

by oldtimehockey09 on Aug 8, 2011 1:52 PM EDT reply actions

i agree with you.

especially with Correia. he looks very predictable on the mound right now.

by white angus on Aug 8, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions

this is why Correia's FIP and xFIP are trending down...

he’s becoming a worse pitcher. I notice a lack of movement on his pitches and not as much command. Don’t know if he’s feeling the pressure or tiring out but Correia collapsing in the second half is not new.

#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!

by Slick1 on Aug 8, 2011 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions

It's

just regression. Karstens was really really due.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 8, 2011 3:12 PM EDT reply actions

When you have the 2 starting pitchers that give up the most baserunners in the league (Morton and McDonald worst in WHIP, since Happ was demoted), sooner or later, it’s gonna catch up to you. You can’t keep stranding those baserunners forever, unless, of course, you are the Pirates offense ;)

by Thunder on Aug 8, 2011 6:45 PM EDT reply actions