The Royals Have A Bad Farm System!!
by WTM on Aug 8, 2011 8:58 PM EDT
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PrintComing into this season, the Royals had a farm system that was widely regarded as one of the strongest ever. This was mainly because the system appeared to be loaded with impact prospects at the top. They had five prospects in Baseball America's Top 20 and nine in the top 83. And here's how they're doing this year (BA ranking in parentheses):
Eric Hosmer (8) - Doing well (117 OPS+) as a rookie in the majors.
Mike Moustakas (9) - Slipped a little from previous year in AAA. Promoted anyway and appears overwhelmed in majors with an OPS+ of 40 in 164 ABs.
Wil Myers (10) - Moved from catcher to outfield. Having only decent season in AA as power hasn't shown up. Hitting 249/352/372.
John Lamb (18) - Had Tommy John surgery.
Mike Montgomery (19) - Struggling in AAA, largely due to control problems. Has 5.20 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
Christian Colon (51) - Struggling in AA, hitting 254/326/346.
Danny Duffy (68) - Got off to good start in AAA. Promoted to majors after eight games and has struggled, with 5.08 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.
Jake Odorizzi (69) - Got mid-season promotion after pitching well in high A. Has struggled in AA, with 5.31 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. K rate is way down and HR rate is way up.
Chris Dwyer (83) - Struggling in AA, partly due to control problems. Has ERA of 5.77 and WHIP of 1.49.
Out of nine prospects, only one (Hosmer) is having an unequivocally good year. Several struggled after promotions. Myers is having a so-so year, Lamb is hurt, and Montgomery, Colon and Dwyer are just having bad years.
So, are the Royals' prospects just not that good? Or did the team suddenly become incompetent at development?
Or is it possible that four months' stats aren't really the full measure of a prospect?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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But there's a problem here.
I have the advantage of seeing 20 Royals games, but not being emotionally bound to them. And a team that promotes six people to the majors on merit should be graded on a different scale than this.
Hosmer is a stud. He’ll be an All-Star. Moustakas was promoted out of need. He should be back in AAA, where he hit 322 in May and June (vs 229 in April). Giavotella has looked as good in MLB as he did at AAA, and certainly deserved to be promoted. Duffy has great stuff. He still needs to learn how to pitch in the majors, but most people do. Crow is the eighth inning pitcher and has an ERA of 1.89. Coleman is a seventh/eighth inning pitcher with an ERA of 1.77. Tim Collins is in MLB because he’s a LHP, but he’s got an ERA of 3.44 seventh/eighth inning pitcher. These are all rookies. Only Moustakas needs more time in the minors.
This does speak to the vagaries of prospect ranking (i.e., it’s a crap shoot), But Royals’ farm system was highly rated because of its depth of prospects, and the results in the majors suggest that this is correct. There is the issue that NastyNate points to: The team needs starting pitching badly, and it’s a stretch at this point to see Lamb, Montgomery, Odorizzi, or Dwyer helping in the near term.
Viva Clemente!
I agree that the Royals still have a terrific system, but that wasn’t the point. What I see right now is people pointing to mediocre numbers that they’re seeing in much of the Pirates’ system and concluding that the Pirates’ system sucks. But as your post makes clear, you can’t just look at raw numbers. To take just one point, the Pirates’ affiliates are younger, often much younger, than the league weighted average except in the case of the Bradenton pitchers and the West Virginia and State College hitters. WV and SC both have the youngest pitching staffs in their leagues. The GCL Pirates have the youngest hitters in their league, yet they’re the league’s second best hitting team. They also have the youngest pitchers in the GCL by a very large margin.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Stop it..
Stop it WTM.. you and your reason.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 8, 2011 9:06 PM EDT reply actions
I was actually curious about this
since we had discussed here how the Royals farm system all the sudden jumped from terrible to great in a span of a year. Was interested in seeing how it was going this year. Always good to emphasize the ups and downs of prospects.
Sale the Royals
Sale the Taillon and Alvarez too.
s.zielinski
maybe
they will be willing to trade those busts for some real prospects? how about Josh Harrison(jay hay to some of you) and Chase for some of those busts? we can take two or three off their hands. It would be a steal for the Royals. then we can also DFA Pedro Alvarez!
It's an interesting study
Especially when you consider someone like Moustakas, who is kind of analagous to Andy LaRoche – that is, a highly rated prospect who failed at his first go at the bigs. What’s going to happen to this guy?
For all the critics who say that LaRoche was obviously going to fail because his stock was down, what do you think about Moustakas? Would you be willing to accept Mike Moustakas as the centerpiece in a trade for a veteran like Jason Bay?
Sometimes these questions aren’t as clear looking ahead as they are in hindsight.
They aren't clear, you're right in terms of whether one would succeed and one would fail, but
if we’re looking at the time of the LaRoche trade (he was 24) vs. if the Bucs had Bay now and traded for Moustakas (he’s 22) thats a significant difference…not an end-all be-all by any means, but it means something.
Sure
Lots of differences between the two guys – It’s kind of questionable whether Moustakas can even stick at third, whereas LaRoche’s defense was supposed to be an asset. No player is ever an exact comp for any other player, anyway.
Just making the point that these are tough, tough decisions. If the Royals offered a package centered around Moustakas, you’d have to seriously consider it, right? Even though he’s been really bad in the majors this year. Very tough to project prospects.
Agreed
I don’t know much about MM, but I would venture to guess that he offered more with the stick than Luigi, while LaRoche was thought to be more of an all-around 3B.
THANK YOU
For remembering, and getting the “Luigi” moniker right. I’ve seen some strange variations, like “Little Mario” and “Big Luigi,” among others.
For those with lesser memories:
Adam = Mario
Andy = Luigi
Why is this a sticking point? Because it’s 8:30, and I’m only on my first cuppa Joe.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 9, 2011 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Moose was a #2 overall pick, he would be considered more of a bust than Laroche no matter the numbers
kinda ironic that Pedro is also a #2 pick, aint it?
Not specifically. I’m seeing a lot of discussion of this topic, probably because the Pirates are losing lately. I’m just trying to provide some perspective. I thought before now that people place WAY too much weight on one year’s performance with prospects.
On the whole, I think the Pirates’ system has had a mediocre season, but not disastrous. IMO, the system is probably much better on the position player side than it appeared five months ago.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 8, 2011 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
the majority of people sound pretty disappointed in the pitchers as a whole, maybe because the expectation was higher for them than the position players this year. Its far too early to write them off, but that won’t stop some from doing so.
On the whole, I think the Pirates’ system has had a mediocre season, but not disastrous.
Yeah, that’s pretty much how I’d characterize it, too.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 8, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy LaRoche had failed to hit when healthy....
and had a lingering back issue that kept him from seeing the field when the Dodgers needed him. Many people thought Moss and LaRoche (not to mention the two injured arms) were not worth a year and a half of Bay at the top of his game. Those people were right.
It seems that when the argument suits the FO defenders on this forum they point to pre-season prospect rankings to defend the FO and when those rankings indicate our system lacks any impact talent in the upper levels the same people cry out that those rankings are garbage.
In the end the FO evaluates the players independent of rankings and trades value(Bay) for future value(Moss, LaRoche). The Bay trade was poor, other trades have been good. However, there isn’t much in the system now that look like it will EVER lead to enough good players to form a winning team and when you don’t add above average players in free agency that spells trouble.
I notice you didn't answer the question
Would you make Moustakas the centerpiece of a trade for a Bay-like player?
I haven't seen the kid play yet...
so i really couldn’t answer the question. But statistically your comparison makes sense but the FO gets paid to actually evaluate and project players not just check their rankings and their stats.
Heeeey
I see what you did there! You don’t ACTUALLY think they’re bad do you?
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Twitter: @shanecglass
They still have a good farm system
Part of the problem here is the Willmington Blue Rocks, the High A team for the Royals. The pitching stats there are always inflated. So people over value the pitchers after they post ridiculous strike out numbers. They they fall short in AA because they are just coming back to earth. Odorizzi will be fine. Dwyer too. They are not going to strike out 10+ a game, but they are not collapsing as prospects.
by SojourningPirate on Aug 8, 2011 9:55 PM EDT reply actions
Braves’ pitching prospects always used to be overrated due to Myrtle Beach.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 8, 2011 9:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Post of the month.
I know you weren’t trying to slap Charlie in the face, but this is the complete counter balance to his article, which I believe was based on fear.
Great work, rec’d.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Fear of what? What are you talking about?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 8, 2011 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Fear of prospects turning into busts.
You wouldn’t have made that post had it not been for a poor short period of performance for some of our prospects.
Basically what I’m saying is I think you piled on to a number of the guys while they are down, and I think changing your opinion of prospects radically over a 4 month period (ex-injury) is not a good way to judge talent or success in the minor league system.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I don’t understand this. When we’re talking about minor leaguers who were drafted in the last few years, we don’t have huge sample sizes to go on for most of them, especially those who spent their first year or two in short-season leagues or were injured last year (and a large number of the Pirates’ prospects fall into one or both groups). Those four months are big chunks of their careers, and because they’re the four months that happened most recently, they’re the most relevant.
Also, when you’re looking at four-month samples for a large group of players, it’s really not that small a sample size. I wasn’t saying that any one player will become a bust. I was saying that, broadly speaking, we haven’t seen a lot of the breakouts you’d like to see of big-bonus kids who have a lot of upside. Maybe that will happen next year. But it hasn’t happened this year.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 8, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions
A number of these kids are drafted at 18 years old...
…and the prime of a major league career is probably somewhere between 26-29. I’m not going to be overly worried about how they perform during a 4 month period when a number of them aren’t even done filling out their frames yet. The kids that were drafted at 18 years old in 2008 are now 21 and probably have roughly 4 more years of development left in them.
On top of that, not every prospect on every top 20 list is going to make it to the majors. The economics of big bonuses still work out even if you have 19 failures out of 20 big bonuses. You can’t control the results, but you can control the process which over time will lead to better results than those teams without a good process.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
The economics of big bonuses still work out even if you have 19 failures out of 20 big bonuses.
the economics might work out with regard to the production you get out of the one guy who turns into a good player, but you’re going to have a lousy team if you’re regularly going two or three years without drafting any useful players…
by Captain Easychord on Aug 8, 2011 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions
That's why there are 50 rounds in a draft, and there are more picks than just big bonus players...
…so you can get more than 1 player at a time.
Look at Huntington’s drafts in 2008, 2009, and 2010. None of those years look to be years where only 1 player makes it to the majors leagues.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Right 2009 is looking like zero might make it...
Or at least any who will contribute. I don’t share the same sense of optimism that a lot of you guys have for this draft class. I see a lot of problems. Dodson and Cain are the stars of this class so far and they are looking like C level prospects to me. Sanchez is having a hard time adjusting to AA like many of us thought. Hopefully he can make the necessarry adjustments. Pounders has been ok, underwhelming for a #2 pick. Black, Inman, Chambers, ZVR, Stevenson, have been downright disappointing. I know a lot could change down the road but I don’t understand why success on the field isn’t as important as scouting to some of you guys? Certainly you realize that next year’s scouting reports will largely be based on how players perform and develop this season.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
You are telling me that 0 players from the 2009 draft class are going to make it 2 years into their pro-career, when some of these kids are still 20?
I don’t even know how to respond to that.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I was counteracting your optimism...
you said it looks like multiple players will make it and the only thing you have to go on is scouting reports coming into the season. Yeah, anyone of those HS kids could develop some velocity and command at any time and turn into a legitimate prospect but right now almost everything is based on projection. That is the difference to me, projection equals potential and that’s all. There are a lot more players in the 2008 class that look as if they have a chance to make it but exactly who in the 2009 class is performing at a level that makes you think there are multiple players who will surely make it to the majors? I’m curious because looking at how these guys have performed there aren’t many unless a few of them fill out and add velocity as hoped. It’s just as likely that none of them add any velocity as they get older.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
Are you talking about just high school pitchers or all players from the 2009 draft?
I think we are talking about two different things.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I don't really see anyone in the 2009 class...
performing like a legitimate prospect yet (I may be forgetting some names). I have concerns about Sanchez’s swing that may have been realized this year in AA. If his new ceiling becomes backup catcher I’m just not going to be as high on the guy as others are. Just my opinion. Fuesser, Dodson and Cain have been ok and everyone else (that I can think of) has been underwhelming or hurt. Again, I realize anyone could develop next year and breakout, but I also think it’s just as likely anyone could flame out and/or get demoted. I don’t see a lot of names in that group that I’d be willing to bet large sums of money on them becoming productive major leaguers? Who are you ready to pencil in as a can’t miss prospect (and by can’t miss I simply mean productive major leaguers, i.e. better than replacement level)?
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
I never said anybody was a lock, I just said I have no idea how you can say 0 are going to make it.
I still think Sanchez becomes a starting MLB catcher at some point if I had to bet on it, I also think ZVR and Cain have better than 50-50 shots to make the majors. We will also probably see a few relief options emerge from that class.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I was using hyperbole when I said zero...
but I did it to show there is as much evidence right now to believe zero will make it as the multiple players (or at least more than one) that you suggested. You’re correct, you didn’t say lock but you did say:
Look at Huntington’s drafts in 2008, 2009, and 2010. None of those years look to be years where only 1 player makes it to the majors leagues.
The question I have is what exactly do you see that makes you believe this about the 2009 draft? Probably would have been better to just ask you that in the first place rather than using the approach I did.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
The things I have listed in other posts in this thread.
Sanchez – the BABIP, K%, defensive reputation, and the fact that the league is full of shitty catchers already
ZVR – Young and probably not done filling out his body, supposedly throwing a few mph up from when he was drafted, great peripherals, wacky HR numbers that look like a fluke
Cain – all around solid improvement since he has been drafted
Relievers – You always get random breakout relievers to end up being average MLB level guys aka Crotta, Watson, whoever.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
On Sanchez:
fact that the league is full of shitty catchers already
This is a really good point. You’re right, given the scarcity of catchers, I think there is a better than 50-50 chance that Sanchez will be a useful major league catcher even if it’s just in a backup role. You win, I cannot in good faith say (even when exaggerating) that I think zero will make it.
On ZVR:
great peripherals, wacky HR numbers that look like a fluke
See I don’t think his peripherals are that great. There are some things to like (K:BB ratio is nice) and some things to be really concerned about (119 hits in 100 IP). He doesn’t roll a lot of GB’s so I don’t know that the HR rate is a fluke. I’m leaning more towards not a fluke right now given how many hits he’s given up. He’s a projection guy so it’s too early to write him off but I think he defintely needs to add velocity or I don’t see him making it as he advances.
On Cain:
Cain – all around solid improvement since he has been drafted
His K’s numbers have dropped with each level he’s advanced. Given that he is not a projection guy this really concerns me. He’s cut down on the BB rate which is nice but he is striking out less than 7 batters per 9 in low A. I thought I also read somewhere that he was working more in the high 80’s and touching 91 this year as opposed to the draft report of working low 90’s touching 94. Haven’t seen him though so I’ll have to rely on others that have.
On relievers:
Relievers – You always get random breakout relievers to end up being average MLB level guys aka Crotta, Watson, whoever.
This sounds more of a numbers argument than it does for a belief in any particular prospect.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
I'm still not worried about the 09 prep pitcher class
There’s progress being made there. If you look at ZVR’s peripheral numbers for instance: his k/9 has gone up from last year, his bb/9 has gone down, his k/bb ratio is 5.5. But his h/9 and hr/9 have also gone up. I’d just attribute this to maybe growing pains and possibly trying to makeover his delivery. If he suddenly adds a few ticks of velocity then we may see a huge breakout next year. That’s what most of these guys were given over slot bonuses on anyway: projection.
I think what we’re seeing with the Altoona 4 were that we may have just over rated our first “real” pitching prospects in some time. And I’m still willing to give Sanchez a mulligan on this season because of what happened to him last year.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Aug 9, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not too worried about ZVR, he's really young, has a decent shot to add velocity, and the K and BB numbers you listed have been improving.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
He was sitting at 90-92 when I saw him about six weeks ago. His stuff right now is better than he gets credit for.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 9, 2011 7:15 PM EDT up reply actions
That's good to hear...
I had not heard any recent reports.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
Is ZVR having any kinks ironed out of his delivery that you know of? Basically his problems have been leaving his FB up in the zone like Taillon, right?
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Aug 9, 2011 7:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I think he just needs to locate his pitches.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 9, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Good
I think that’s about what time said as well. I still like him.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
*Tim
Sorry I’m tired.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I agree...
I’m not giving up on anyone either. I was just using hyperbole to make a point that many of us here overvalue these guys based on them getting larger than normal bonuses. I’m just not ready to credit this system as having tons of depth until a few of these “potential” guys look as if they are starting to develop. I think Huntington is absolutely doing the right thing with stocking the system with tons of projectable throwers. It’s a very interesting strategy and one that could pay big time dividends. I by no means am writing Sanchez off either but there were serious concerns about his bat speed playing at the upper levels of the minors. So far it has not and I simply cannot just ignore it because he was hurt or was a #4 pick in the draft. Obviously next season will give us a much better picture of the type of prospect Sanchez is.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
Obviously Sanchez is not having a great year...
…but I will say two things, firstly he has the lowest K rate that he has had at any of his three major stops (and at the highest level he has played to date obviously), and his BABIP is the lowest of any of those stops. I know many of the SABR people on this board completely throw away minor league BABIP, but I have a very hard time believing that and I haven’t seen any concrete or convincing evidence that minor league BABIP should be completely thrown away.
I’m still under the impression that Sanchez is going to be a starting catcher in the MLB someday, I couldn’t tell you if he is going to be #1 or #30 but I think he’s going to be a starter.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Also the injury plague which hopefully seems to have ended could help his numbers next year.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
You correctky point out all the reasons...
to still be hopeful he could turn out to be a productive player. I agree and by no means am I suggesting Sanchez is a complete bust or anything. But just as you can’t dismiss BABIP or his injuries, I cannot dismiss his long swing and slow bat speed as a possible cause of his struggles this year. I think there are enough questions with Sanchez for me to step back and say I need some more data but it is possible this guy isn’t the surefire solid regular to All-star catcher I hoped he’d be when drafted. Like I said above, given his injury problems last year, and struggles this year, I think next year should give us a better idea of what kind of player he is.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
How am I dismissing BABIP?
I’m the one saying we should look at BABIP.
Many on this site completely ignore minor league BABIP, and I think that is foolish.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
You misunderstand me...
You aren’t dismissing it and I believe you are correct in not doing so. I said that like you cannot dismiss BABIP, I cannot dismiss his scouting reports when evaluating his performance. I also cannot draw any firm conclusions yet as to what type of player Sanchez truly is given his poor performance, low BABIP, good feel for the strike zone, slow bat, injury history etc.,and I feel I need another year’s worth of data. I can’t tell if he’s a good hitter having some back luck or a good lower minors hitter overwhelmed in AA.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
Or somewhere in the middle frankly, he doesn't have to be only a solid regular or a bust.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I know all that. I’m not shutting the book on any of them, and I don’t expect to see all of them succeed. I’m just saying that one would expect more of them to have taken big steps forward this year. Just because there’s still time for them to make progress doesn’t make it wrong to say that it’s unfortunate that most of them haven’t made quick progress yet.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 8, 2011 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Realistically, what were you expecting coming into the season before play started?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Well, as an example, it would have been great to see a pitcher or two from the 2009 class dominate at West Virginia. It would have been nice to see someone from the Altoona 4 step up and start looking like a future rotation staple. It would have been nice to see a lot more from Tony Sanchez. Those are the kinds of things I’m talking about. I’m not expecting everyone to succeed.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 8, 2011 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd say that at the same time you or I didn't expect to see players like...
…Curry, Hague, Grossman, McPherson, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Cain, etc turn in seasons better than what was widely expected. At the same time, I bet most of the players I listed don’t take another step forward next year and a number of the players you listed do take steps forward that they did not take this year.
I guess the bottom line is we will have to agree to disagree that using a 4 month sample size is too short of a sample size to judge our prospects.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Re: your first sentence – sure, but Hague, Gonzalez and Cabrera are still pretty small potatoes. Those guys just aren’t great prospects. And I just don’t think Cain’s season has been a breakout, just a reasonably good season.
The stuff about sample sizes is a red herring. We’re all just judging on the limited information we have, and my article was about the minor-league system as a whole – add all those performances up, and you have a very large sample size.
The Pirates need stars. And if they’re going to get stars, they need lots of these kids taking leaps forward – particularly because, as you’ve said, a lot of the guys who take leap forward one year will not do so the next year.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 8, 2011 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, so if we agree on the leap forward not being needed every single year from each guy...
…why not worry about guys who have had 2-3 bad seasons in a row instead of a 4 month bad period?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Aug 9, 2011 7:34 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Guys who have 2-3 bad seasons in a row
aren’t going to be in your system anymore to worry about.
Not true, a good example of that is Freeman.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Even better example: Presley
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 9, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Is Presley the norm though...
or the exception to it?
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
Neither, IMO. Prospect development just isn’t the straight line proposition that many fans imagine it to be. That’s part of the point of the OP.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 9, 2011 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, when you’re looking at four-month samples for a large group of players, it’s really not that small a sample size.
I disagree with this, although I agree with the point that we haven’t seen the breakouts that ultimately need to happen. I think it’s quite possible to have surprising fluctuations system-wide over the course of a year or so. The Royals’ All-World System really came out of nowhere. A year and a half ago they were regarded as being on about the same level the Pirates are now. So even across a whole system, four months can be a SSS, especially in a system where the players across the board are young for their leagues, as I noted above.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
+1
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Excellent point and it kind of supports what I'm saying...
The Royals’ All-World System really came out of nowhere. A year and a half ago they were regarded as being on about the same level the Pirates are now.
Exactly, and they didn’t start gaining recognition as a top system until they had prospects actually perform as top prospects. I agree that their is a ton of potential in the Pirate’s system but I cannot in good faith say that the Pirates are loaded with prospects until a few of these guys start having breakout seasons. But your point is taken about sample sizes. Also very hard to judge numbers alone when there are specific development plans in place they may prohibit certain prospects from achieving breakout type numbers. At some point the chains will be taken off and we’ll find out what our guys are truly made of but until then I think I’ll stay in “wait and see” mode before I can say in good faith that this system has tons of depth. It certainly has a lot of potential. And it absolutely has more depth than the Littlefield days but I don’t think that’s what any of us are talking about here.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
I cannot in good faith say that the Pirates are loaded with prospects until a few of these guys start having breakout seasons.
Agree. I’m not seeing that yet. But I’m also not willing to dismiss the system yet, either, especially when there’s a system-wide phenomenon of players being young for their levels.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Aug 9, 2011 7:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. I mean, what I said is pretty much what independent prospect evaluators who take a close look at the system are going to say here in the next few months.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Aug 8, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
That video is awesome.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Love it!
I started doing this same comparison at the end of work today but didn’t finish it before I left. It was the first thing on my to do list in the morning and you saved the the effort.
The other thing to consider is the cost controlled talent already in the majors and therefore no longer considered prospects. Outside of Butler, Gordon and Soria, the Royals (also) have a fair number of holes that need to be filled.
And wasn't Gordon...
considered a bust last year?
Yes
and the year before.
I also did a mini post in Charlie’s thread about the Royals.
System’s can fluctuate wildly, especially at the top. That’s why I think depth is more important, and while we don’t have significant depth of impact prospects (but who does; rarely anyone) we have plenty of depth of B and B- guys, and interesting C+ guys. Significantly more than we used to and more than other teams have, especially teams in our own divisions.
Take a look how horrible the Cubs and Brewers systems are.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Aug 9, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
hosmer isnt a hole at all. and i still think Duffy will be a good pitcher. i think Moose will play better away from Kaufman Stadium.
but i truly believe Butler can be had for the right price.
I wasn't trying to say that Hosmer is a "hole"
But he is still considered a prospect. If Pedro had not been called up to the majors yet but was putting up his 3rd straight dominant season in AAA, he’d still be on the top prospect list (his stock may have fallen but he’d still be there somewhere just like Yonder Alonso). The same could be said of Jose Tabata. If he just hammered away at AAA pitching all season last year as a 21-year old instead of hitting .300 for Pittsburgh, he’d be considered part of the wave of talent about to get to the majors. My point was that Pittsburgh’s minor league system has been weakened by some of it’s best minor leaguers already playing in the bigs.
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 9, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Great point.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Very true...
and the Royals have graduated a lot of big names this year so I’d expect their farm rankings to take a bit of a hit as well.
#FreeJoelHanrahan!
#AndAlltheBuntsAreStillBad!
ive been keeping track of KC and TB's system pretty much the last couple of seasons...
and this crop of KC’s talent, recognized by pretty much everyone as the best system in the game, has underperfomed more than any other top organization that i can remember. they have, i believe, upwards of 10 prospects in the top 100 (depending on the source) and 9 of them have struggled for a majority of this season. i cant recall another farm system that had that much talent do so poorly in a single year.
its mind bottling.
I wanna know how they have a AA catcher putting up Tony Sanchez numbers from the OF and he was in the top 10 of all of baseball. The pitching numbers are dreadful and Christian Colon looks way overrated also.
AND myers is playing in the texas league, which is extremely hitter friendly. his numbers should be WAYYYYYYY better.
maybe hes not taking to his new position.
Well..
he’s not putting up Sanchez numbers since his OPS is about 60-70 points higher. And he’s about 2.5 years younger at the same level.
still, none of that adds up to top 10, unless he is all tools, but since he was a 3rd rounder and drafted as a C I’m assuming he is not. I don’t see how he’s more valuable than Sanchez right now
Because he's supposed to have better tools than Sanchez
And he’s had some extended success in the minors while Sanchez has had little at all…I would say its a combination of tools and performance.
Coming into this season
Sanchez was seen as excellent defensively whereas Myers was a candidate to be moved to the OF. After both were drafted in ‘09 and Sanchez posted .949 and .870 OPS’s at A and high A. Myers was tearing up rookie league then did well in high A last year.
This is not meant to take anything away from Myers, but how exactly has Sanchez had “little (success) at all?”
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 10, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm probably
being too harsh with Sanchez in light of his struggles and you’re right, those are good numbers. But, I kind of took his success in his draft year to be a 21 year old kid kind of old for his competition…maybe I’m wrong.
And you’re also right in that he was doing well last year till he got hit in the face…I really hope this doesn’t hinder his career. I have a question that obviously has the benefit of hindsight now but…in light of that accident, wouldn’t it have been better to start him off back at high-A and then move him up to the Toona when he got going instead of promoting him from the get-go? Didn’t know if anyone else was thinking of that…
Yeah, in the bigs the difference between the average left fielder and the average catcher is 80 points of OPS
according to Kevin Goldstein’s research on BP. So, Sanchez is actually hitting relative to average at his position better if he’s only down by 60-70 points.
The system as a whole doesn't worry me at all
especially given the large number of young pitchers. It is way too early. What concerns me is Pedro. We don’t have enough lower round surprises to make up for all of the accumulated years of early round mistakes that will have piled up if he gets added to the Bullington Moskos scrap heap.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
Pedro would be far worse than either of those two
There are two main reasons in my mind. First of all, because he was the right choice at #2. People can talk all they want about wanting Buster Posey, but truth be told, Pedro was supposed to be a monster at the plate and that’s what the Pirates needed. It’s one thing to make a money-motivated draft pick and have it not work out. It’s quite another to make the right pick, spend the cash, feel great about it all the way through the minors and then have it come crashing down on your head. I’m by no means giving up on Alvarez yet, but I also realize how vital it is to this organization for him to reach (or at least approach) his potential.
Secondly, and more importantly, Pedro represents the only player of his caliber anywhere in the organization including Pittsburgh. There is not one guy right now that projects to be a big time power hitter in the major leagues outside of Petey. Since free agents like that are well outside the Pirates price range, it’s probably Pedro or bust at the cleanup spot for the next several years.
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 11, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
The lack of power hitters in the organization
Was one reason the Pirates were lucky Rendon was available in this draft class. Unfortunately, he injured himself and Smith/Huntington took another pitcher. Bell might be a good-enough replacement for Rendon. But he’ll not be here for another five years if, of course, they sign him.
s.zielinski
If by "Worse" you mean more disappointing
then I agree that Pedro busting would be worse than the Moskoses and Bullingtons of the Pirates’ draft history. But if by “Worse” you mean “stronger evidence of poor management”, then the Moskoses and Bullingtons would be far worse than Pedro being a bust, because they were never even considered to have the potential of a Pedro. If the draft is a lottery ticket, then they were a pick-six from yesterday’s drawing with no matching numbers.
The Pirates do need a few lower found surprises
They also need some of the International Free Agents to make it in a big way.
s.zielinski
Yes...
…for a team that spends a lot of money on the Draft and on International Free Agents. That’s the reason the organization spends that kind of money — it spends a lot of money in order to have at least one player every class step up and perform like a number one draft pick.
Last year, the Pirates drafted Taillon. They also signed:
Allie
Kingham
Heredia
That’s four players who now project to have more than modest success as major leaguers.
This year’s draft class has these players as high-ceiling draftees:
Cole
Bell
Dickerson
Wade
Brown
Gamache is supposedly a better hitter than he showed when in college. Cole, Bell and Dickerson were all first round talents coming into the drat. Wade and Brown were top-150 talents coming into the draft. And this is a deep draft class. Thus, Cole and Bell project to be stars and Dickerson has star potential and could reach his ceiling if his back holds up.
The players have to perform, of course. But only a cynic would doubt that the Pirates have added a lot of talent to its developmental system in the past few years. And acquiring talent in this quantity increases the probability that the team will generate draft pick surprises and International Free Agent finds.
s.zielinski
Don't worry
Sano has posted an .899 OPS in rookie ball…wait…dammit
by KentuckyPirate on Aug 12, 2011 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions
Ya hadda bring up Sano
He and Bell would look good in a Pirates top-ten prospects list.
s.zielinski
Choices not made
We can go over Sano again and again, and it does seem like his agent was an ass, but I fear Rene Gayo overplayed his hand and helped cost us the kid. Alvarez was a consensus choice for us, but we didn’t have to go with the pack. A lot of people liked Posey and Smoak better and it is looking like they were right. We didn’t have to pick Moskos, or Bullington or any of the other mistakes we made. I don’t even know what the hell my point is anymore, except that we haven’t had too many big strikes in the draft, nor have we had our fair share of unexpected surprises. But we sure has hell have left a ton of great players untouched, and they are now somewhere else. And it stinks.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
"But we sure has hell have left a ton of great players untouched, and they are now somewhere else."
A lotta other clubs passed on these players, too. It’s not solely a Pirates’ thing.
Small solace, perhaps, but…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Aug 13, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
'Tis true
and while I know it, it still kills me to see the all star team we could assemble by taking one guy from every first round since Syd Thrift left. Because that is how long this mistake-a-thon has gone on. You get a pass for not catching Pujols when you take a Smoak or a Posey and pass on an Alvarez, or take a Weiters and pass on a Moskos, or take a you pick a name and pass on Bullington, or….well, you get the idea.
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
and how many teams passed on McCutchen?
how many times was Jason Bay traded before going to the Pirates?
how many teams passed on Vogelsong?
And you're point is what exactly?
No one is saying teams don’t pass on good players. By definition, they have to every year since they can’t pick everybody. What I’m saying is that, faced with a choice again and again of several players, we more often than not pick the guy who ends up not making it, when there were other really good choices out there among whom, every fricking year, there were several who made it, and big. That is why Neal Huntington has such a challenge—years of that will really kill you, you know?
"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."
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