Is a new shortstop needed? Available? A priority?
by Roberto on Sep 11, 2011 12:07 AM EDT
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PrintRonny Cedeno gets little love in these pages. If you use Fangraphs' Wins above Replacement data over the last two years, Ronny shows up 17th among major league shortstops. Using these metrics Ronny is 7th in fielding and 63rd in hitting. From my perspective that makes replacing him a low priority, but given the limited opportunities to improve the 2012 Pirates it should be considered.
Who might represent an improvement and be available? The pool is pretty small.
Jose Reyes may be a free agent. He's a much better hitter than Cedeno, but a significantly worse fielder these days. That was news to me. He used to be a superb fielder, but has been subpar for the last three years.
Hanley Ramirez might be available. Over the last two years he's been below-average with the glove and average at bat. He actually ranks behind Cedeno in terms of Wins above Replacement, but might be a candidate to do more. In 2006-2010 he hit well above average, so he could be an expensive bounce-back gamble. The Marlins have been forced to play Emilio Bonifacio at short this year, and he's responded well. A below-average (but not dreadful) fielder, Bonifacio can really hit for a shortstop.
Steven Drew would involve really rolling the dice that he can recover, so the targets (if any) are likely to involve talented minor leaguers (which will take some serious talent in return). This list is not long either.
Hak-Ju Lee or Darwin Barney might be available from the Cubs. Jose Iglesias of the Red Sox seems unlikely to be available. And, it is hard to project that he will be significantly better than say Jordy Mercer after all the hype is done. What other options do you see? I must confess I'm a bigger Cedeno fan now than when I started this post.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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Hak-Ju Lee or Darwin Barney might be available from the Cubs.
Lee got traded to Tampa in the Garza deal. I suspect they’re going to want to hang onto him, given the crap production they got from Brignac last year and the rumors that Tim Beckham might have to move to another position.
remember when Reid Brignac was THE guy we should of traded Bay for?
by patient pirate on Sep 11, 2011 2:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not a Niemann fan. His arm’s falling apart.
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2011 7:36 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wouldn't necessarily say I'm a fan, either
Nonetheless, he’s been far more productive than anyone we got for Bay
ive heard that the Rays have been happy with Beckham at SS this season.
that he may stick at SS afterall. its still too early to tell, but he has re-established himself nicely. i could see him with the Rays next season since hes already in AAA and Brignac played himself into a utility position.
Doubt the cubs trade Barney
He’s a younger piece i think they’re intent on keeping.
Not a lot of realistic options out there right now.
A few possibilities:
*Chris Nelson, Rockies, 25. Former first-round pick, basically ML-ready now. Pretty good bat for a middle infielder. Makes contact, hits for average, doubles power. Doesn’t walk. Runs well, but doesn’t steal much. Stretched a little at short, could maybe handle it, but obviously not going to move Tulowitzki off the position. Hasn’t played great in his MLB trials to date, but has had his moments. Colorado has enough other high-level 2B/3B options right now (Herrera, Young, Stewart, Hector Gomez) that they could probably spare Nelson if they got back something they like in return. Some film of Nelson in action: Hitting, fielding, stealing home.
*Trevor Plouffe, Twins, 25. Former first-round pick, basically ML-ready right now. Not spectacular in any phase of the game, but generally competent all around. Had a big offensive season for the first time at AAA in 2011, which could have been either a breakthrough or a fluke, who knows? Has been solid in the majors this year as well, but has had friction with Gardenhire on several occasions (in part over inconsistent defensive execution), and the Twins might be willing to move him in the interest of keeping their manager happy. Working against us here is that the Twins’ middle infielders have sucked in 2011 (albeit with mitigating circumstances in the case of Nishioka) and they don’t have a lot on the farm. Film of Plouffe: Hitting, fielding.
*Reese Havens, Mets, 24. Perpetually-injured first-rounder from 2008. Has played 2B for the last two years, but might be able to handle short. The Mets aren’t really counting on him for anything since he’s hurt all the time, but he’s got a solid bat (average, doubles, walks, and contact) and I think he’ll hit enough to potentially carry the glove at the position. R5 eligible, may or may not get protected. Could compete for a job next year, but might not be ready to win it just yet. Film of Havens: Hitting, fielding (sort of… infield drill, four years ago).
*Tony Wolters, Indians, 19. Third-round pick in 2010, possibly expendable because Cleveland (like Colorado) has a bunch of young middle infielders right now. Strong fielder, baseball rat, spray hitter with some speed but not much power potential. Most teams had him at 2B coming into the draft, but Cleveland decided to leave him at SS and it looks like he’ll be able to stick there. Wouldn’t be ready for several years, but projects as a solid starter. Draft-day video of Woltters Hitting and fielding.
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2011 3:36 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
wow, thanks for all the info, Vlad
Great post.
Nelson seems the most attractive to me, although the music fan in me thinks it’d be pretty fun to have R. Havens on our team.
Just to add a bit
Plouffe had a wOBA of 437 in AAA, but it was his third go at that level. He’ll be playing every day for Minnesota down the stretch, so it should be possible to get a good picture of his ability.
Another player who might give slightly more than replacement would be Jason Donald of the Indians. He’s hit and fielded well this year, although he distinctly did not impress the Indians in 2010.
Havens has hit consistently through AA, with plenty of walks, strikeouts, and power. Not likely to be ready for the majors next year, and I can’t find much about his defense. He’d only be available at all if the Mets sign Reyes. (Or maybe if Reyes does not sign and the Mets need a shortstop.)
Nelson has a wOBA of 384 in the PCL, but I don’t see much evidence that he would be credible at shortstop. Obviously he’s not moving Tulo of the position, but he seems to be an indifferent fielder overall at second and third.
Viva Clemente!
I like Donald, and the Indians might move him for the same reason that they might move Wolfeds. I think Donald’s a 2B and not a SS, though. He might be able to “play” SS in the same way that Jeff Keppinger does.
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2011 7:40 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Wolfeds = Wolters.
Stupid autocorrect….
by Vlad on Sep 12, 2011 3:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
We also may want to consider...
…whether the White Sox would be willing to trade Gordon Beckham, and whether we’d be able to fix him if they did, and whether he’d be able to move back to short if we did.
So a few more options to think about. Thanks.
Any of the folks mentioned would take a significant player in return. The question would be whether they would represent a significant upgrade.
Viva Clemente!
What about Julio?
He might be a little old for this level, though.
by NastyNate82 on Sep 11, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
give Brandon Wood some consistent AB`s
Let Cedeño walk
D Arnaud is a back up
Mercer waits in the wings in AAA
If you think D'Arnaud is a back-up,
Why would you think BWood is anything more than that?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 11, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
You just named 4 MLB-ready Shortstops that the Pirates HAVE...
And I don’t want any of them. Is that greedy?
It looked for a while like Wood might be making some progress, but he’s gone right back into the crapper the last two months.
The FO could give him one more year, if they wanted, but I’d probably cut bait this offseason.
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2011 7:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He was making strides, then the benched for some unknown reason out of nowhere
From what I have seen , he could put up a .260 average and hit 35 hr consistently
That is the closest to an Allstar shortstop that we`ll find in the next 5 years
I just don´t see why we need to waste 3mil on Cedeño.
Its not like we have a lot of money to throw around on the ML roster
He wasn't "benched".
In fact, his playing time didn’t change at all. 54 PA in May, 56 in June, 61 in July, and 54 in August. He just stopped hitting.
His PT has been cut a bit in September, but that’s the sort of thing that happens when you hit .196/.222/.333 with a 2/18 BB/K in the prior month.
by Vlad on Sep 12, 2011 4:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
35 HR? Consistently?
Not a snowball’s chance in Hell.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 11, 2011 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions
i still dont see how you have seen .260 and 35 dingers from Wood...
and then you said CONSISTANTLY… ive had Lasik and im not seeing it.
Sigh
I hadn’t checked lately, and didn’t realize that. His BABIP in August was low (.250 despite an LD% of 26.5, higher than in June or July), but his season looks an awful lot like a Great June, an OK July, and a whole lot of Bad Brandon Wood. It’s still looking like the best season of his career, but that’s damning with faint praise.
I’d be tempted to keep him around, since his defense has been decent and he hits better than a typical UT, but I wouldn’t lose any sleep over cutting him, nor would I keep him over anyone slightly interesting.
I'd definitely keep Wood around.
I’ve been a huge Brandon Wood fan since he was acquired (I figure one of these failed major prospects that the Pirates pick up is bound to be successful!!)
But, even being a huge Brandon Wood fan…and being in favor of letting Cedeno walk…there is not a chance I would ever got to Spring Training with just Wood and d’Arnaud.
If Cedeno walks, the Pirates HAVE to bring in a major league replacement.
As much as I am intrigued by the offensive possibilities of Brandon Wood, I think he is very valuable in his current position, which is backing up every position in the infield.
The beauty of keeping him there is that not only do you have a competent back-up, but if by some miracle he blossoms into the hitter that some thought he would, then he can take over as the starting SS (or 3B).
Getting back to the OP: I think that replacing Cedeno at shortstop is fine to do. But, I think it’s important to know that it’s unlikely that you’ll improve the position, but you might get more consistency.
So, then, why am I in favor of replacing Cedeno, even if the position worsens slightly? Well, I have to imagine that it’s immensely frustrating to Hurdle and the coaches to see a player with such talent make so many mental errors throughout the season. If that frustration is something that Hurdle and his team are tired of, then go ahead a replace Cedeno. I think at this point, Hurdle might be content to put a .235-.245 hitting shortstop that makes all the routine plays out there. I can’t say I’d argue with that.
The REAL question for the off-season, is what is the team going to do at third base? I think it’s pretty apparent that the Pirates will go get a first baseman, but I’m going to be really curious to see if they spend some money to get some insurance at 3rd base. Inexpensive over-the-hill vet (like an Eric Chavez, Greg Dobbs, Melvin Mora-type) that is just a body, in case Pedro is still a mess? Or do they bite the bullet and go after a true starting 3rd baseman, and allow Pedro to work his way back? I don’t know, but will be curious to see!
17th?
When I use the fangraphs leaderboards, it shows Ronny as 26th among ML SS over the last two years. He’s 37th in fielding and 25th in wRC+ among guys with at least 750 PA. I can’t figure out where you’re getting your rankings from.
And considering that he’s 26th among listed SS in PA, it’s no coincidence that he’s 26th in WAR as well. WAR as a stat is biased toward players who play a lot. If a team uses a guy as a starting SS, WAR is gong to see him as a starting SS. If you really want to know how good/bad Cedeno is (if you dare discover the truth) you need to add up the individually calculated and regressed components of WAR. He’s a true-talent 0.5-WAR player, 1 WAR if you’re extremely generous. He’s very close to being a replacement-level player.
Since his WAR is 2.7 over the last two years
I would not seem that calling him a replacement level player is accurate.
Viva Clemente!
(It’s kind of a semantic thing. Cedeno has been a well-above-replacement-level performer over the last two seasons, which is a measure of actual value generated, but epoc’s talking about forecasting future performance, which can generate a range of possible results based on certain default assumptions made in your model.)
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2011 7:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
WAR isn’t any more “biased” toward players who play a lot than any other counting stat.
If you want to call Cedeno a true-talent 1-WAR guy, I can’t really agree, but let’s run with that for the sake of argument. How many wins above replacement, exactly, should a starting shortstop in the 20-30 overall range be worth? Half of the starters in the league at any given time are going to be delivering performances worse than those of the average starter at their position, because that’s how average works – a guy can simultaneously be a below-average starter for his position and one of the 30 best players at his position in the league.
There are really only two relevant questions regarding Cedeno:
*Is he the best shortstop currently in the organization?
*If so, would the cost of pursuing a superior replacement from outside the organization be the best possible use of the resources used to acquire that replacement?
Simple as that.
by Vlad on Sep 11, 2011 7:54 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I agree that WAR isn’t more biased than other counting stats, but that’s not the same as saying it’s not biased. Every counting stat is biased toward players who are given a lot of playing time.
We would, of course, expect a guy who’s been given a starting job to produce one of the top 30 WAR values at his position. That demonstrates nothing about whether or not he’s actually one of the 30 best players in the game at that position. Again, it’s just a reflection of the fact that he’s been treated that way by his team.
Considering that you get about 28 RAR just for playing a full season at SS, we should expect that one of the 30 best SS in the league should be better than 10 RAR.
Obviously, the third relevant question about Cedeno, the most important one and the one that has to be answered before moving on to the two relevant questions you list, is: How good is Ronny Cedeno? And it seems we’re still struggling with that one.
That's a fallacy
Yes, you get 28 RAR just for showing up at SS every day, but that’s just a hedge against the reality that very few MLBers can play SS at all as well as hit at all. There are only a dozen guys in baseball this year who produced net runs at SS beyond those 28.
More importantly, since WAR counts up positive stats and negative stats, there’s no sense in which it simply accrues with playing time regardless of talent. Kevin Correia was worth something like 1.5 wins back in early July, and seemed like a cinch to earn his salary, even if he regressed some. But instead, he pitched like shit for ~10 starts, and has produced just 0.1 WAR on the season.
I might add that, as I noted this morning in another thread, Cutch has produced just 0.3 WAR in his last ~40 games. Given the RAR that come with games played at his position, that means that his production has been slightly negative over that stretch.
WAR only rewards players who produce. It’s true that it’s impossible to put up big WAR totals with little playing time, but that’s obvious and inherent. There’s nothing at all about WAR that makes it possible to accumulate wins without actually playing better than, say Chase d’Arnaud (at this moment of his career).
What, exactly, is the fallacy? WAR is no different than any counting stat in rewarding players that produce, but it’s still true that it is biased toward players who get the most opportunities to produce. You can’t accumulate HR by hitting like Neifi Perez (or Ronny Cedeno!) either, but that doesn’t mean that higher HR totals are a reflection not only of HR power but also PA.
Like I said originally, you need to look at Ronny’s true talent by individually adding and regressing the WAR components, in part because straight WAR totals include rewards (for PT and position) for the guys who were given the PT (also because of small sample sizes, volatility of statistics, etc.)
They don't take away RBI when you K with bases loaded
But they do take away WAR. Simple as that.
If Ronny were as bad as you insist, then more PT would simply expose him. Give Brian Bixler 150 starts at SS, and he won’t somehow end up with ~1.5 WAR.
not that simple at all
WAR subtracts from your hitting component if you K but adds to your PT and positional score. In theory, it’s supposed to work out so that a replacement-level player will get 0 WAR, but the volatility of statistics in small samples makes that not necessarily true in practice, and the guys who get more PT (because of both opportunity and selection bias) have more opportunity to accumulate above-replacement “value.”
So which of the following is untrue:
1) the PT/positional adjustment for a SS is roughly +28 for 700 PA.
2) Cedeno is roughly a true-talent -20 hitter per 700 PA.
3) Cedeno is roughly a true-talent -2 fielder per 150 games.
4) 28 – 20 – 2 = 6
Where am I going wrong in my evaluation of Cedeno? He’s posted bad (though not terrible) WAR numbers the last two years because a) in 2010 he hit much better than his true talent; b) in 2011 he has fielded much better than his true talent; and c) the Pirates keep using him as their starting SS.
WAR is no different than any counting stat in rewarding players that produce, but it’s still true that it is biased toward players who get the most opportunities to produce.
I.e. the players who are generally regarded as the most deserving of that playing time.
You keep speaking as though the fact that Ronny ended up with a starter’s PT is some kind of historical accident, or like he was picked as the starter via lottery.
The fact that Ronny has been a starter for two and a half years is because the Pirates have miscast him as a starter for two and a half years. You can call it historical accident or whatever you want, but the fact that he’s been given a starter’s PT is in no way evidence that he’s one of the 30 best SS in baseball. Obviously, that assumption would be selection bias.
The fact that Ronny has been a starter for two and a half years is because the Pirates have miscast him as a starter for two and a half years.
“Miscast” in your opinion, and nothing more.
Obviously, that assumption would be selection bias.
You say “selection bias”, I say “professional scouting”.
"Miscast" in your opinion, and nothing more.
Except, of course, there’s also the constant true-talent WAR estimates I do in these threads that suggest he’s a 0.5 WAR player or maybe 1.0 if you’re generous. But yeah, other than that, it’s just me.
You say "selection bias", I say "professional scouting".
Right. The professional scouts that brought us Lyle Overbay, Kevin Correia, Matt Diaz, etc. But even if you’re willing to trust the Pirates’ ability to evaluate ML talent, it’s still selection bias, because as we all know whether or not a team plays a guy doesn’t necessarily mean they think he’s one of the 30 best players at that position in baseball. It just means he’s the best guy they can or want to expend the resources to get at that point. And you, who have been arguing like crazy that it’s literally impossible for NH to get any ML-caliber players except through the draft or forced slavery, obviously know that. Mistaking such a situation for evidence of a player’s skill level is, yep, selection bias.
there’s also the constant true-talent WAR estimates I do in these threads that suggest he’s a 0.5 WAR player or maybe 1.0 if you’re generous.
Estimates colored by a rather un-generous set of assumptions you are making as part of the estimate.
The professional scouts that brought us Lyle Overbay, Kevin Correia, Matt Diaz, etc.
Cedeno is 28, and there are three different teams that have made him their starting shortstop. That would be a very unusual career progression for a true-talent replacement-level player.
It’s not out of the question that so many scouts could be wrong about him in succession, but it does seem relatively unlikely, doesn’t it?
It just means he’s the best guy they can or want to expend the resources to get at that point.
If you believe that there are so many blocked shortstops who are superior to Cedeno but unable to strut their stuff in everyday playing time, why not give some examples of such?
I'd bring back Cedeno for one more year.
I’d also let Chase play full time in AAA, he needs some work on his plate discipline.
We aren’t going to compete next year, so I wouldn’t be too excited about not having an above average MLB player at shortstop.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
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