Pedro Ciriaco An Unlikely Hero In 6-5 Win Over Cardinals
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 12, 2011 11:58 PM EDT
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The Pirates have had an awful time recently, but they squeaked out a tough win against the Cardinals Monday night, 6-5.
The game was tied at two in the fifth when Neil Walker banged a double off the Clemente Wall to bring home Alex Presley and put the Bucs ahead 3-2. Unfortunately, Albert Pujols hit a two-run bomb in the sixth on what was, honestly, not that bad a pitch by Brad Lincoln - it was low, and Pujols still managed to hit it about 400 feet to center.
In the bottom of the eighth, Derrek Lee walked with one out and Chase D'Arnaud came in to pinch-run. Ryan Doumit then doubled to right, bringing home D'Arnaud to tie the game. Then the Cardinals intentionally walked Ryan Ludwick. Then Josh Harrison pinch-hit for Pedro Alvarez, and if that doesn't turn out to be the most pathetic moment of Alvarez's career, I'm not sure I want to see any more of it. (Harrison struck out.) Jason Jaramillo then walked, bringing up ... Pedro Ciriaco, with the bases loaded, two outs, and the score tied. Now, if you're wondering how in the world the Pirates didn't have a better option than Pedro Ciriaco available given that it wasn't an extra-inning game and rosters have expanded, well, you're not alone. But sure enough, Ciriaco smacked a hanging breaking ball down the first-base line, and the Pirates took a two-run lead.
Joel Hanrahan allowed a run in the ninth, but left runners on second and third to preserve a 6-5 win.
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"...and Pujols still managed to hit it about 400 feet to center."
He’s really, really good.
I still say walk him. Every time.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Someone should run the numbers
You could make a card like NFL coaches use for 2 point tries – when to walk Albert, and when not to. And yes, it’s entirely possible that the card will simply say “Walk him” next to every possible situation.
I agree 100%.
The “don’t give him anything good to hit” line just doesn’t apply. He has the Vlad Guerrero ability to hit pitches on the inside-black to left field for a HR (and not jerk it foul). He takes pitches the opposite way for HRs. As Bob Walk has said, you can see him actually changing his approach at the plate, pitch to pitch, based on the situation that presents itself.
While it sucks to see the Pirates victimized by him, it is a pleasure to watch him play the game. He’s one of the best ever.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 9:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree sttrongly.
He is a pleasure to watch.
.
.
…I just wish it wasn’t against the Bucs.
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 13, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Hey we've got Pedro Alvarez already
Oh wait….
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Sep 13, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
it wouldn't
Here’s a chart from 2002 on whether to walk Barry Bonds or face him.
As you can see, with the Giants down one, nobody out, and a runner on first in the top of the sixth, the result is “Do NOT Walk” him. And Pujols isn’t 2002 Barry. In 2002, Bonds had a wRC+ of 245; Pujols’ best season is a wRC+ of 185.
(Preemptive strike: I know Pujols’ OPS against the Pirates is over 1.000. If he were walked every time, he’s have an OBP of 1.000, not an OPS of 1.000. Walking him every time would be worse than what he actually does to the Pirates.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Sep 13, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Zane: good point.
I wonder what kind of wRC+ Albert Pujols would put up on “the clear” and whatever else Bonds was taking.
Just sayin’…
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 2:44 PM EDT up reply actions
and for the record...
I’d pull a Don Drysdale when it came to Bonds: why throw 4 perfectly good pitches to walk him when you could save 3 by drilling his ass with the first one?
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That's great
But I have a question: what’s the difference between “Face him” and “Do NOT Walk”? I mean, aside from PAs where you pitch around somebody (which I wouldn’t characterize as “Face Him”, you never want to walk anybody. I guess what I"m saying is, I wish that we could tell our pitchers “Do NOT Walk” and have that actually work.
If you walked him every time, his OPS would also be 1.000. If that’s lower than his IRL OPS, I’m not sure why you’d pick the latter (except that OBP is worth more than SLG).
I think the difference between “Face him” and “Do NOT Walk” is just that “Do NOT Walk” means “intentionally walking him is a really bad idea.” Something like, walking him lowers your win probability .05 in the “Face him” box and .15 in the “Do NOT Walk” box (numbers 100% made up). If you look at the bottom of the chart there are a few boxes marked “Walk now!”, which I think is the mirror image — “Walk now!” means it’s a really good idea to walk him, even more so than just walk. This seems to be mostly with two outs in the ninth and first base open, when Bonds represents the go-ahead run.
“If you walked him every time, his OPS would also be 1.000.”
No no, his slugging percentage would be 0/0, which is undefined rather than 0. So he wouldn’t have an OPS. Look at Eddie Gaedel’s BBRef page — SLG, OPS, and OPS+ are all blank.
And the point that OPS undervalues OBP would be a really big deal if you were talking about walking someone all the time. Santiago Casilla, who walked in his one plate appearance, has a wRC+ of 354; even when he’s OPSing over 1000, which is a lot of the time, Albert’s wRC+ is around half that.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Sep 13, 2011 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions
also I like that "Do NOT Walk" idea
Maybe we could get one of those old pedestrian “walk/don’t walk” signs and hang it behind home plate whenever Stetson Allie was pitching.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Sep 13, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I thought they had finally learned their lesson
when they walked him in the … what was it, third inning … and Holliday hit into the DP.
Apparently not.
Bill James once wrote that Joe Morgan always read the pitchout, and that it was useless to try it against him because he’d just be standing on the base, never fooled, yet managers couldn’t resist. James said he thought eventually managers called the pitchout just to see Morgan do it.
Maybe Hurdle just likes seeing Albert hit long homers.
“See, boys?” he’d tell our bench. “That’s how it’s done.”
Then Josh Harrison pinch-hit for Pedro Alvarez, and if that doesn’t turn out to be the most pathetic moment of Alvarez’s career, I’m not sure I want to see any more of it.
What makes it even more pathetic is that pinch-hitting Harrison was undoubtedly the right call there, even though he struck out. Pedro is just a mess right now and sending him up to hit against Repzylkyklyklyinsli wouldn’t have done him or the team any good. I still hope he can sort himself out somehow, but he does not look anything like a big league hitter right now. Incredibly disappointing.
agreed
it was the right call.
Especially with the longer benches in September, putting in the RH hitting Harrison to face the LHP Rep-whatever-ski was a good call.
Now…had they pinch-hit Ohlendorf for him? That would be pathetic.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
there's no shame in giving up a homer to Pujols
that man could hit a pitch a foot above his head 400 feet to right center
I'm surprised
That SB Nation actually has a photo of Ciriaco. I assumed he’d be one of those guys with like one public photo of him taken twelve years ago, like a baseball Terrence Malick.
bestweekever.tv
The right move
to pinch hit Josh for Pedro. I have 100 times more faith in Josh than Pedro right now. Sure, he K’d but he is not an automatic K like Pedro is. At this point, I have more faith in Ciriaco than Alvarez. If Ciriaco keeps this up he is deserving of a decent look next spring. I know he has his detractors and it is a very small MLB sample size but this is the 2nd time in less than a week he has come through with RISP. Jaramillo is having a nice month so far as well.
The game was actually tied at the time
Ciriaco hit his 2-run double since d’Arnaud had already scored that inning on Doumit’s double.
I was happy to see Ciriaco come through in that spot. He probably isn’t destined to get a lot of big-league hits in his career, so I imagine he will remember that one for the rest of his life. Good for him!
Hey Charlie, Just saying the pitch on the home run
to Pujols was not low and away it was more on the inside which is why it was so amazing that he got the barrel on it and drove it to right center. This was a pitch that most would hit right down the line or turn on and hit way foul. Nothing for Lincoln to be ashamed of there.
Huh. You’re right. The camera angle made it appear to be away, but I guess it wasn’t.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 13, 2011 12:53 AM EDT up reply actions
When Ciriaco came up, I was joking with my mom that I couldn't believe they let him out of the cave.
Then he hits a double. I was really happy for the kid. Came through big.
Thus Spake Bluecheerathustra
Just a little inside but still amazing what he did with it.
For those who can stomach it check out Smiziks blog on his thoughts on the lack of progress on the reign of FC for his 4 year tenure. I know it really shouldn’t be brought up here (so I won’t link it) but some points are hard to dispute and of course some are giant leaps.
In the stadium
They showed Ciriaco’s career numbers with runners on base. Going into that AB he was hitting .667 with 2 doubles and a triple and a 2.000 OPS. After that AB he’s hitting .714 with a 2.143 OPS.
Ciriaco is awesome.
Only 1 rec..
How the hell is that possible !
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Sep 13, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
that makes 2 now
still not enough
"It's magic, it's tragic, it's a loss, it's a win"
by Elektrostal_Kid on Sep 13, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Doumit needs to stay...
The guy can flat out hit! One of the best hitting catchers in the game. As for Alvarez I have no idea. Lincoln is looking solid!
by Joey Mooney on Sep 13, 2011 2:26 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Doumit needs to stay...
The guy can flat out hit! One of the best hitting catchers in the game. As for Alvarez I have no idea. Lincoln is looking solid!
by Joey Mooney on Sep 13, 2011 2:34 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
And I missed it!
I had to turn off the radio feed in the 5th and couldn’t get back until it was Hammer Time. I am sooooooo disappointed that I missed Ciriaco’s double. So that’s why Hurdle has kept him around for so long!
And here I had thought that it was because of those incriminating photos he has of the FO. Ya know, the ones everyone has been talking about all year long.
by Chileburger on Sep 13, 2011 5:51 AM EDT via iPhone app reply actions
It might be his career defining moment.
Like Roberts steal.
by Horace Clarke on Sep 13, 2011 12:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
awesome play
though it helped that one of the Flying Molinas was running!
But the body control he showed to get upright enough to put a throw on 1B was damn impressive.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 8:35 AM EDT up reply actions
d'arnaud has shown that he has defensive range, a good enough arm and quickness to play SS. and his speed on the basepaths is impressive.
if he can control the strike zone better, and get his OBP over 300, he has a chance at making Cedeno an exPirate.
example: if d’arnaud hit like Harrison, with chase’s speed, the SS job would be his to lose.
agreed
why pay Cedeno money…when you can pay d’arnaud less to mess up routine plays?
IMO, there is NO reason Mercer shouldn’t be in Pittsburgh right now auditioning to play some SS.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 9:12 AM EDT up reply actions
The same excuses they are using with Hague...
not on the 40 man roster, and no playing time.
After being promoted to AAA, Mercer put up a .239 BA and .689 OPS. That’s not a career-killer or anything like that, but he’s not exactly forcing his way into the lineup, either.
He’s like Hague in one way – if he wants to get an opportunity, he needs to improve his skills and play like it.
Vlad: don’t we need to make a 40-man decision on both Hague and Mercer after this season?
That is more-so where I’m coming from — I’d like to see what they can do at this level, albeit in September/October, in an effort to make a better 40-man decision down the road.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions
That is more-so where I’m coming from — I’d like to see what they can do at this level, albeit in September/October, in an effort to make a better 40-man decision down the road.
My guess would be that they’ve already made a decision on whether or not to add Hague and Mercer to the roster, and at this point are trying to make determinations on players whom they see as borderline (like Ciriaco?). If they aren’t going to add Hague and/or Mercer this offseason, they certainly aren’t going to add them now and then waive them in a month. If they ARE going to add Hague and/or Mercer this offseason, they might want more time to decide whose roster spot Hague and/or Mercer are going to end up getting.
Just conjecture, though.
The one that’s strange to me is the decision to not call up Gorkys, who’s already on the roster and is basically ML-ready right now. Even if they don’t plan on playing him much, they might end up in a situation like yesterday’s game, where an extra position player on the bench would be helpful.
agreed on Gorkys, and valid points on Hague/Mercer.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
If they’re honestly considering keeping Ciriaco on the roster after the season … well, I don’t know what to say about that.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 13, 2011 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions
actually Mercer, hague and hernandez ARE in pittsburgh right now...
theyre just not on the active roster. hernandez is eligible but still not active.
by white angus on Sep 13, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Anyone want free tix to tonight's (Tuesday) game?
Great seats and reserved parking in Gold 4. Email me at gostillers6@gmail.com
Big props to Ciriaco.
I’ve had a fair bit of fun at his expense this year, but for one day at least, he gets to enjoy the spotlight.
i know im probably off base here but...
despite Ciriaco barely getting on the field, he has never looked overmatched.
He was also very humble after the game in the on-field interview.
He briefly talked about being shuttled between Indy-Pittsburgh, but showed no ill will and was gracious for the opportunity to play ball. I appreciate that in the era of pampered “super stars” that only appear gracious for endorsement deals.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Did anyone else have trouble understanding Hurdle's moves last night?
First with two out and runners at 2nd and 3rd, he brings in Watson as part of a double switch, who ends up having to face Allen Craig. Seems like that’s about the last match up one would want in that spot.
The other part of the double switch is to bring in Ciriaco to play SS and lead off the bottom of the 7th. A guy with a .260 OBP in AAA doesn’t look like the obvious choice one would want to have bat in that spot.
Then despite the double switch he replaces Watson with Grilli to start the 8th. Isn’t the point of a double switch that you can avoid having the pitcher bat in your half of the inning and allow him to stay in the game?
Then in the 9th after we take the lead he replaces Ciriaco at SS with d’Arnaud. Isn’t Ciriaco a defensive specialist and hasn’t d’Arnaud struggled on defense at times?
But everything works like a charm. After Craig nearly homers on a ball that hooks just foul, Watson manages to retire him. Even though Ciriaco strikes out on three pitches to start the 7th, he delivers the key hit later and d’Arnaud makes a truly fabulous play at SS during the ninth inning.
Are other managers laughing at Hurdle’s moves like the other GMs used to laugh at Littlefield or are there some subtlies hidden therein that I am just not getting?
West:
If I’m not mistaken, C. Patterson was in the on deck circle (though not officially announced) when Watson was brought in to pitch. LaRussa pulled Patterson down and used Craig to combat the LHP. As Patterson was never officially announced, he was able to strike out to end the game later. As for the double-switch: if I’m not mistaken, Grilli (RHP) was brought in to face the Pujols/Berkman/Holiday (R-S-R) part of the order.
Hurdle should have waited for Patterson to officially be announced as the PH before going to Watson, but it didn’t play out that way. Had he done so, LaRussa would have had to put Craig in for Patterson…wasting Patterson in that instance. Hurdle was playing the percentages in those 2 innings — LH vs. LH (which was botched up), and RH vs. RH.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I thought Jay was up so yeah
he was bringing in a lefty to face a lefty either way, but with Craig on the bench that wasn’t going to be the result he would get. I thought it made more sense to just let Laroux face Jay than Watson/Craig but maybe I am wrong about that.
by WestCoastBuc on Sep 13, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
understood
Perhaps he’s also leaning on Watson a little — trial by fire of sorts.
It’s September…we’re going to get to see kids pushed into situations they wouldn’t have been in June/July. Glad Watson came out on top — and glad he pounded Craig inside 2 straight pitches, even after the first one missed. Hurdle said Watson hasn’t thrown inside much, and he executed that last night. Glad to hear the insight from Hurdle, and glad to see Watson execute.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
if you have a minute
You should check out the condensed game highlight reel at mlbdotcom. At 13:00, when Furcal hits a ground ball to 1st in the 9th inning, there are some really choice words in the audio coming from the Cardinals bench. I don’t know why but if you hear bench sound when you watch these condensed games it seems like it’s always the Pirates opposition.
here’s the link:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19152077
by ImmaculatePerception on Sep 13, 2011 10:24 AM EDT reply actions
ESPN (Yeah, I know...)
Has this article this morning about how TLR loves to “over-manage” games.
Seems the Cards get “LaRussa’d” as much as we get Hurdled:
It’s September, which means expanded rosters, which is like handing La Russa a blank check and the run of Home Depot. He brought in Shane Robinson to play center field, his third center fielder of the game. He moved Skip Schumacher from center to right, Schumacher’s third position of the game. He brought in Octavio Dotel for Kyle McClellan, who had pitched a perfect, seven-pitch seventh.
Here’s my argument: Why put an extra runner on base in that situation? Intentional walks are nearly always wrong for that reason: the potential negative aspect — more baserunners leading to more runs scored — outweighs the small possibility of getting a double play. To make this situation worse, the only reason La Russa walked Ludwick was to get a platoon advantage he should have known he wasn’t going to get: The Pirates weren’t going to let Alvarez face Rzepczynski, not in an important situation like this and a slew of pinch-hitters available on a September roster.
So La Russa will trust anybody in a one-run or tie game in the eighth inning, but didn’t trust anybody but Motte to close out a three-run lead on Sunday?
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
Cutch is in a daze.
Saw him over the weekend and he looked almost disinterested, particularly Sunday. I thought 2 HR game would be start to strong close, like last 2 years. He’s been basically replacement level since ASG.
by Horace Clarke on Sep 13, 2011 12:16 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Well slightly above replacement.
But all he’s done is keep up his HR pace.
by Horace Clarke on Sep 13, 2011 12:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
appears
he’s trying to jack every ball — HR derby instead of hitting.
Anything in the zone he’s taking big hacks at, or maybe it’s just me.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
nope, its not just you... i said the same thing to mrs angus.
hes swinging from the heels even with 2 strikes. real big monster cuts, too.
by white angus on Sep 13, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That's my impression.
HRs are up but OPS is unchanged. Maybe it’s just aesthetics but I miss the triples and SBs. Still gets his walks, so it seems to be what he’s doing w balls in
The zone.
by Horace Clarke on Sep 13, 2011 12:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
SLG up
BA down, thus OBP down
OPS flat
WAR flat
I think I’d like to see the SLG/OBP back to un-hacking level…when the WAR was increasing.
by insane_sanity on Sep 13, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be
His LD% didn’t drop in August, he obviously hasn’t slowed down appreciably, so there’s no apparent reason for his BABIP to drop aside from luck.
I can’t find fielding splits, but I wonder if a lot of the stasis in his WAR comes from a regression on defense. He’s down to 0.3 wins on defense for the year, but I think he had many more at the ASG. Clearly he’s not hitting as well, but my sense, eyeballing the splits, is that he’s still a pretty good hitter, but has regressed towards the mean as his defense has been actively dragging him down for a couple months.
his BABIP may be down, and maybe its because of the way hes swinging
hes definately not shortening his swing when he has 2 strikes, and when he makes contact its with all the power he can produce in one violent swoosh.
that is NOT the way he swung the bat in the past.
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