A Market Innefficiency and the Draft

Matt Garrioch of MLB Bonus Baby claims that he "believe[s] the draft is Major League Baseball's biggest current market inefficiency." He goes on to tell us why.

The Pirates -- ahead of the curve. Who knew? Well, some of knew and applauded the effort right from the start.

9 months ago steve_z 9 comments 1 recs |

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Read More: moneyball, market inefficiency

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Saw that article...

Nice to see the Bucs ahead of the curve on something, right?

by NastyNate82 on Sep 14, 2011 9:04 PM EDT reply actions

I know that a lack of hard-slotting lets us take advantage of this inefficiency, but...

I’m not sure whether or not hard-slotting is best for the Pirates long-term. Notice that the Red Sox are also one of the teams taking advantage of the ability to sign overslot guys. An inefficiency is unlikely to stay an inefficiency for very long, and this particular inefficiency is likely to last only until more big market teams (besides just the Red Sox) start throwing money at overslot players. If this inefficiency dries up (which I hope it doesn’t for a long time), then it seems the Pirates would be better off with a hard-slotting system that at least lets them take the best player available with their draft pick.

Now I believe Huntington is a talented GM and not a one-trick pony that exclusively relies upon this particular inefficiency, but to date I believe his greatest success has been exploiting this inefficiency. Hopefully he has the skills (and I believe he does) to identify other inefficiencies for when he can no longer rely on this one.

Sabermetrica

by mickeyg13 on Sep 15, 2011 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

If this inefficiency dries up (which I hope it doesn’t for a long time), then it seems the Pirates would be better off with a hard-slotting system that at least lets them take the best player available with their draft pick.

This is likely the reason NH and FC aren’t very vocal when it comes to hard slotting. You never hear them really get to upset when asked about it and I think Coonelly even went as far to say that it was a good thing. They probably know that by the time hard slotting is effectively implemented the rest of the league, big markets included, will have caught up to them and they will have lost their edge. It seems to be heading that way now.. You should add the Nats to the list of big market teams along with Boston and also Toronto but they’re more mid-level. The Nats have been right there with the Pirates in spending the last three years. So really KC and Pitt are the only “small” market teams I can think of right now who are fully taking advantage of the system but teams like the Rays, Boston and Toronto are also taking advantage of the draft though “volume” of picks (money aside). Maybe the Bucs are trying to get there this year with D. Lee and Ludwick (?).

#AlltheBuntsAreBad

by Slick1 on Sep 15, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

Best player available

The problem with the thought that hard slotting will enable the Pirates (or anyone else) to simply take the best player available is that high-quality amateur baseball players – especially high-school players – have other options to develop their sports career. Most importantly, college is an option for top-end prep players – overslot bonuses are used by teams like the Pirates to lure top-end prep players away from college; with hard slotting, that won’t be an option any more.

“Signability” will still be an issue – but it’ll rapidly devolve into one where you don’t even bother signing a top-end prep player because the slot bonus you can pay him won’t be enough to lure him away from college.

by DG Lewis on Sep 16, 2011 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions

No doubt it will cost the MLB talent...

nad the Pirates will lose an edge. Just commenting on the fact that I think the Pirates realized they have a tiny window left to exploit this inefficiency and plan to really take advantage of it. If the Pirates come out in the first half next season and look like a playoff contender there are going to be quite a few teams looking at their model and draft spending is really the only tangible area you can look and say they have implented a unique strategy.

#AlltheBuntsAreBad

by Slick1 on Sep 16, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

A "reverse?" inefficiency he's already discovered...

Don’t give multi-year contracts to relievers. Hey, it’s somethin’

by Mr. E on Sep 15, 2011 8:35 PM EDT up reply actions

We knew that already

This was a DL strategy.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 15, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Wait until he sells high on Hanrahan before declaring that one a win...

if he truly believes that it will be because he is aware that a closer or reliever can be elite one year and garbage the next. There are few Mariano Rivera’s in the world. Hanrahan’s value may likely never be higher this off season or next trade deadline. If he holds on to him than I don’t think you can say he is fully taking advantage of that particular market inefficiency because part of that reliever contract strategy revolves around the fact that closers are over rated.

#AlltheBuntsAreBad

by Slick1 on Sep 16, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions