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Do the Pirates Have A Top Ten Minor League System?

When it comes to baseball in general and prospects specifically I spend a disproportionate amount of my time reading about the Pirates. While I've probably ingested a novellas worth of writing about Starling Marte I imagine I've barely read enough about Gary Brown to fill a few pages. I try to keep that in mind when comparing the Pirates prospects and their system as a whole to other teams as I obviously have a bias.

While I share some of the concerns about the Pirates system that others have expressed on this site, I also like a quite a few things, particularly relative to where it was four years ago. It's difficult for me to objectively assess its status as relates to the other 29 teams however.  To compensate for the bias I know I have I tend to feel like wherever I think it should rank, it's probably at least a little lower. So perhaps when is said and done maybe 15 or so? 

However I was reading Jason Parks most recent article on Baseball Prospectus this afternoon (I believe it's subscriber only):

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15028

The article is primarily dedicated to naming the players with the best tools. Who has the best speed, power, hit tool, arm, etc. But at the end of the article he lists ten teams who are candidates for the Best Farm System Award and what do you know the Pirates were among those ten. 

Later in the day I was sure there must have been some sort of qualification I'd missed. I was fairly surprised that an objective writer would consider them to potentially be Top Ten system, perhaps because I was being cautious in my own evaluation to compensate for that aforementioned bias. So I sent him a tweet, just to make sure I'd read it currently, here's the tweet and his response:

Yes. RT  Did I read your BP article correctly, the Pirates merit consideration for a Top 10 MiLB system?

Now what does this actually mean? These things are fluid so maybe when he makes his list in a few months the Pirates drop a little. Obviously the system is no better or worse based on how one person evaluates it. I'll be curious to see if he feels similarly come 2012 and other if other prospects writers feel the same. Even if  the Pirates have a consensus Top Ten system, a positive step forward from where they've come, there are obviously no guarantees but it's still exciting to read and gives me a small bit of additional hope for the years to come.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Keith Law

Not that he is universally loved or is any kind of guru, but I found it interesting that Law said in an ESPN chat that that Robbie Grossman is on the short list of prospects he most wanted to see in the Arizona Fall League.

by God Loves on Sep 15, 2011 5:47 AM EDT reply actions  

I certainly can’t see them as a top 10 system. But, then, I’ve been told I don’t know much about the minors. If the Pirates are rated highly, it has to be mostly due to pitching at the lowest levels. Strong performances at AA and AAA are few and far between, especially position players. And one or two of the strong performances don’t appear to be good enough to add to the Pirates roster (Hague, for one).

by Thunder on Sep 15, 2011 5:48 AM EDT reply actions  

Come

on man. People here still value your opinion. I know I do. I think the Pirates are definitely borderline top 10. In my book they have 5 top 100 prospects. Considering you’d expect an “average” farm system to have 3.3 (100/30), then that alone looks like it’d be about top 10. After that, the Pirates have very solid depth to go along with a good top tier of prospects.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 15, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

who are your five? Cole, Taillon, Marte, Bell? Grossman? Sanchez? (i know that is 6, just thought Id throw Sanchez in there)

Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott

by C Shint on Sep 15, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

My

5 are (in order on a personal list) Taillon, Cole, Marte, Heredia, Bell. I don’t think Grossman and Sanchez will make top 100 lists.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 15, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

ah Heredia, forgot about him lol. I think Grossman could sneak in to top 100. just my opinion though

Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott

by C Shint on Sep 15, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

I mean

there are enough lists out there that I bet you see all of the following on some list somewhere.

Taillon
Cole
Heredia
Allie (I bet he makes some list)
Marte
Bell
Sanchez
Grossman

McPherson might even sneak onto a list, but I think those 5 will be on a bunch of lists.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 15, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

One thing working in Grossman’s favor (if he performs well of course) is that he will be showcased in the AFL

by Cainyoudigit on Sep 15, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

And...

ONE of the five (not counting Sanchez, who I don’t rate that high) is above Class A.

by Thunder on Sep 15, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

And 2...

have played no professional innings. Which I have a problem with…and have for a long time.

by Thunder on Sep 15, 2011 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't

see your issue here if your relating it to NH. NH has had 4 drafts. To expect oodles of top 100 prospects above class A in those 4 drafts is simply ridiculous.

You can generally get top 100 prospects two ways out of the draft (not counting Latin America). A top draft pick, whether college or high school. Or you can get a high school lottery ticket and have him turn into a top 100 prospect.

By definition, it would be rare for players from the second category to have played above A+ by the end of their 4th year (although not as rare as) or 3rd/2nd year. Don’t expect a top 100 prospect from say the top 2009 draft to be finishing up a year in AA unless they were a first round-pick (which defines Tony Sanchez, except his poor year has him at top 200 instead of 100).

Basically, the lack of top 100 prospects from above Class A are the fault of Dave Littlefield. Is it a problem for the Pirates as an organization? When talking about the immediate future, yes. However, it’s not indicative of Neal Huntington’s ability to draft and not what I’d expect to see in the future.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 15, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

You misunderstand...

I have a problem with rating any players that haven’t appeared in a professional game. Not just in the Pirates system

With 4 drafts…you should have several players in at least the first draft or two performing well at levels higher than A ball. Especially if they were college players. Figure on
1st season…Rookie (HS) or short season A (college)
2nd season…SS A (HS) or low A (college)
3rd season…low A (HS) or high A (college)
4th season…high A (HS) or AA (college)

That’s for a run of the mill draftee with some success. A top 100 prospect should be making a more rapid advance through the system than that…at least 1 level over 3 or 4 years.

11 of the first 14 picks in the Pirates 2008 draft were college players. Who in the 2008 or 2009 drafts has performed WELL at levels above A ball? Pedro, who has regressed seriously, Hague and Wilson. People here are deeming Hague a non-prospect, although I am not sure that’s a wise move. Probably the same ideas that said Presley wasn’t a prospect.

by Thunder on Sep 16, 2011 2:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Especially if they were college players

vast majority of the prospects drafted were high school players.

by white angus on Sep 16, 2011 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not in the 2008 draft...

11 of the first 14 the Pirates drafted were college.

by Thunder on Sep 16, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

D'Arnaud

has preformed well, in addition to Mercer mentioned below. That’s a solid %.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 16, 2011 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

Misleading

First off, it was only ten of 14. Grossman (6), Benji Gonzalez (7), Andrew Gagnon (10) and Robert Gardner (13) were prep guys.

Second, they didn’t sign Tanner Scheppers, which turns out to have been a good thing considering that he wanted early first round money. So now you’re down to nine, not eleven.

You’re also looking at long odds of a guy reaching the majors after round five, very long once you’re in the teens. The idea that a high percentage of these guys should be tearing up AAA or whatever right now isn’t realistic. For most of these rounds, a 5-10% success rate (with “success” being defined as reaching the majors) is normal.

The nine are:

Pedro — Only a fool would give up on him yet, but obviously it’s a serious concern. He IS, however, in the majors, so he’s not really relevant to grading the system any more.

Mercer — He still has a good chance of being a major league player, although not a star or probably even a regular.

d’Arnaud — He still could become a major league regular. His pattern has been to adjust slowly to new levels, but he did very well in AAA this year after a bad start.

Wilson — If he’s really hitting 99 as reported, he could be a shutdown reliever.

Jeremy Farrell — He’s shown some ability, but he’s extremely injury-prone and doesn’t have much bat speed. He’ll never be a major leaguer, I don’t think.

Matt Hague — He probably could be a useful bench guy, if not for the Pirates then elsewhere.

David Rubinstein — Org. guy.

Calvin Anderson — His ceiling is probably AA slugger.

Mike Colla — He had a good year as a starter in AA this year. I think he wore down some late in the year due to the big jump in his innings. He could conceivably reach the majors as a reliever.

Out of nine guys, that’s two who are in the majors now and have a good chance of being there next year, three (Wilson, Mercer and Hague) who are very likely to reach the majors at some point, one (Colla) who has an outside chance, and three you can forget. That’s a pretty high return, especially when several of the guys you’re talking about went after round 10. You’re usually talking more about org. guys than anything at that stage. After round five the odds of a draft pick even reaching the majors drops into single digits, so if five or six of these guys reach the majors, that’s a good outcome. If two become regulars, which still has a good chance of happening, it’s a good draft.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Sep 16, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course, all of this ignores the fact that two of the best players they drafted, Grossman and Jarek Cunningham, were prep guys who both had good years in high A. Cunningham would have been in AA by now if he hadn’t missed a year due to knee surgery. Grossman would have finished this year in AA but they wanted him to be in the FSL playoffs.

If Pedro comes through, this is going to be a very good draft. If not, of course, it isn’t.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Sep 16, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

I miscounted...

in that Gonzales was not a HS, but came out of a PR Baseball Academy.

by Thunder on Sep 16, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Baseball Academy basically is a HS.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Sep 16, 2011 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jordy Mercer definitely isn't top 100, but he performed well at AA this year

Some say it’s just because he was repeating the level, but he’s meeting your schedule, I think.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Sep 16, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

I have a problem with rating any players that haven’t appeared in a professional game. Not just in the Pirates system

College players who haven’t played in a pro game are more advanced and easier to assess than high school players who’ve spent a couple of weeks in rookie ball, and yet you’re comfortable rating the latter but not the former?

by Vlad on Sep 19, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

So . . . if two teams each have a system consisting of one player, and that one player on Team A is Gerrit Cole, and on Team B is Steve Jackson, Team B has the stronger system.

Ohhhhh – kaaaaaaay.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Sep 19, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

2 (near) top 10 overall guys. 2-3 others in top 75. 3-4 others in top 150 and loads of interesting guys throughout.

by Mr. E on Sep 15, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

2 (near) top 10 overall guys.

Taillon, Cole


2-3 others in top 75.

Marte, Bell, Heredia


3-4 others in top 150

Grossman, Allie, Sanchez

loads of interesting guys throughout.

Cunningham, Curry, Dickerson, McPherson, Owens, Locke, Wilson, Morris, Kingham, Cain, ZVR, Dodson and Holmes. And that’s just the “top” tier of “other interesting guys.”

Ya, I’d consider this a top 10 system.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 15, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

whoops

look at the top-tier talent in the organization. This team will have somewhere between 4 and 8 prospects in the top 100 (my guess is 5) which is more than almost any organization in baseball. Then consider the added depth and several interesting players and it makes sense that this team is a top-10 organization.

Taillon and Cole will both be top 20 prospects and could even both sneak into the top 10. Heredia was listed as the 50th best prospect in baseball at midseason (I forget which publication said this) and pitched better down the stretch so I’d have to assume he makes it. Josh Bell was an elite talent this year AND got extra publicity because of how he was signed. Remember these lists are subjective. I’m not saying Bell doesn’t deserve to make the list on talent alone but I feel like people will look at him as an even better prospect because he was seen as unsignable and signed for a record. These four, I see as locks. Starling Marte would get my vote because he’s always had the tools and this year he stayed healthy, took strides and was very productive. For an elite CF with 20+ steals to lead the league in hitting and slug .500 as a 22-year old…I don’t see how that doesn’t make the list.

Grossman has a shot because of his crazy statistical year. This is his first non-awful year and he repeated A+ so there’s a case against him but he was really, really good this season for Bradenton. Tony Sanchez was bad this year. He does have a couple things that might protect his prospect status, though. His K and BB numbers were still good. Most objective observers say he still had a very good defensive year. Apparently, Sanchez spent this whole year between 10-15 lbs below his 2010 playing weight after breaking his jaw last year. This explains his drop in power nicely. Hitting the ball harder raises his entire slash line. This is not an excuse for this year but if a talent evaluator believes that his power would return when he puts the weight back on, there would be reason to believe he could sneak into the very bottom of the top-100. Finally, Stetson Allie. Well, there’s not a lot of good things you could say about his season other than he was able to stay healthy. Still, he’s a young kid and he throws 100 mph. That can’t be taught. Talent is talent and Allie still has it. Like Sanchez, he could still sneak onto the back of the list because of it.

by KentuckyPirate on Sep 15, 2011 8:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Sanchez will tell you as well

That he swings at pitches that he can’t hit hard. His strength—great hand-eye coordination—lets him hit these pitches, but he can’t drive them. Knowing what to do and doing it are different, though.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Sep 15, 2011 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

the pirates are close to a top 10 system

adding Cole and Bell helps immensely. Marte stepped up big time, as did Grossman and McPherson. Taillon is still on schedule. Heredia showed plenty of substance for a 16 year old.

yeah, Owens/Morris/Sanchez all had issues. But Owens and Morris were never going to be the prospects that Cole and Taillon could be. Allie is not really a prospect yet, but he may end up as one.

our top 10 could look like this in 2012: (in random order)
Cole
Taillon
Sanchez
Bell
Marte
Grossman
McPherson
Cain
Wilson
Kingham

this doesnt include anyone who has played for the pirates, like Locke and Hughes.
the top 6 or 7 guys on that list could be above average players in the Majors. That, to me, makes us a top 10 system… or at least knocking on the door.

by white angus on Sep 15, 2011 9:11 AM EDT reply actions  

This is pretty much how people like BA rate systems. Depth is nice, but potential frontline players pretty much drive these rankings. Most systems will have one or two guys, but once you get to five or six you’re talking about a more or less top ten system. Without counting Allie, the Pirates have three potential #1-2 starters, a potential middle-of-the-order bat, and a potential star CF. Then you can argue about where guys like Grossman and Sanchez rate, and guys like McPherson and Kingham, who could be mid-rotation starters. And whatever you want to make out of Locke, d’Arnaud, Owens, etc.

I’d still like the system to have a lot more hitting, but that’s not totally out of the question with the existing talent. They had a bunch of guys in the GCL with the raw talent to break out, which has never been the case since I’ve been following their system. Plus they signed two highly regarded LatAm outfielders this summer. There’s absolutely no way to predict how these guys will develop, but the possibility for a few breakouts is there, and at that level you really can’t do better than that. (Aside from how rare guys like Sano are, anybody who thinks he’s some kind of lock should check out Joel Guzman or Angel Villalona.) So the potential is there for the hitting to start getting addressed over the next couple years. This is where you have to start, so there’s no point whining about how they haven’t done anything yet.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Sep 15, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions  

Meh, I don’t really care about system rankings. A ranking of players under the age of 25 seems to be more telling of a teams future.

However, having a nice rank will shut the Yinzers up about that, so we can end that phase of bitching for a moment.

Thank you Ned Colletti.

by ryebr3ad on Sep 15, 2011 12:12 PM EDT reply actions  

Some people just are kvetchers

Kvetch:

Person who endlessly whines or complains.
Person who finds fault with anything.

From Wikipedia

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 15, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Based on hype and draft position (i.e. percieved ceiling)

I’d say the Pirates now have more than a few blue-chip prospects:

Pitchers
Allie
Cole
Heredia
Taillon

Position players

Bell
Marte

If blue-chip, high ceiling prospects drive system rankings for places like BA, as we believe they do, then the Pirates ought to be ranked high — in or near to the Top 10 — for the 2012 season. It would be shocking if the team were ranked lower than that.

Moreover, the Pirates also have near to blue-chip prospects in position players like Sanchez and Grossman; they have projectable pitchers like Cain, Dodson and Kingham; great system depth; and, as Wilbur pointed out, some Latin American players now in the States who may breakout and elevate their perceived ceiling to that of a blue-chip prospect. And, lest we wrongly consider the 2011 season to be a waste of time, the organization will earn another Top-10 draft pick for the 2012 draft. The Pirates might even score a few comp picks for that draft.

The Pirates developmental system is not at all a organizational problem. It’s, in fact, one of the true bright spots for the team.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 15, 2011 12:57 PM EDT reply actions  

well said, i wouldnt be shocked if were not top ten though, top 15 is still reasonable

Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott

by C Shint on Sep 15, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s possible the Pirates have a top-10 system. Their system has been improving at a time when others have been stagnant. A scout friend of mine says there was a general lack of good position-player prospects in the minors this season. I think Keith Law said something similar.

by bolton on Sep 15, 2011 2:14 PM EDT reply actions  

and alot of the ones who have done very well this season have already been called up to the show

like Goldschmidt, Gordon, Altuve, Liddi, etc… and lots of top pitchers have been called up as well: minor, moore, surkamp, teheran, delgado, pomeranz…

who have the pirates called up? d’arnaud, presley, and locke.

by white angus on Sep 15, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ackley, moustakas, hosmer, I’m sure tons more. I think doubters just don’t realize how many guys graduated

by Mr. E on Sep 15, 2011 9:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Jennings

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 15, 2011 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

The majority of the other teams on list consistently had mid to late round picks over the last five yeas. I’ll be curious to see if the Pirates are able to maintain a minor league system in the upper third if they when/if they reach the point where they’re no longer picking in the top five. Obviously they’ll need to if they want to have sustainable long term success.

by rj.reynolds on Sep 15, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions  

A similar point

Few if any of their top prospects have actually increased their status since being drafted. I guess Marte would be the only one. Maybe Grossman if you consider him to be a top prospect (I don’t). Taillon basically treaded water this year, while Cole, Bell, and Heredia are highly regarded based purely on pre-draft status. Sanchez and Allie are declining.

Apart from the acquisition of Bell, who has yet to play professionally, whatever strength the Pirates’ system has is based almost completely on draft order. And even there, one big and important pick has floundered.

by RafaelBelliup on Sep 15, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Few if any of their top prospects have actually increased their status since being drafted.

This should say, “since being acquired.”

by RafaelBelliup on Sep 15, 2011 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you’re a great prospect, treading water isn’t a negative.
If you want increases how about Tabata, Cutch, Presley, Walker, Meek, Hammer, Hague, Curry, Fryer, Pai, Jones, Cunningham, Santos, Harrison, Gonzalez, D’Arnaud, Holt, Grossman, Marte, Locke, Watson, Cain, Dodson, Owens, Wilson, Hughes, Karstens, Leroux, DCutch, Mcdonald, Morton, Resop, Heredia, Kingham, etc, etc

I guess 3.5 lines of names is few though and yes I know you said top prospects but we’ve had “few” “top prospects” so I’m not sure that makes too much sense except to serve your purpose of bashing the system

by Mr. E on Sep 15, 2011 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Eh.

Even if you consider Grossman not to be a blue-chip prospect, he’s certainly more valuable and well-regarded now than he was when drafted. Kingham and McPherson are a couple more mid-rounders who have turned into legitimate prospects, albeit not top-100 contenders; the same can be said for Matt Curry.

We certainly haven’t had as many of these sorts of players break out as you’d like to see; for each Grossman, there’s a Wes Freeman or Mel Rojas, and for each Kingham, there’s a few Trent Stevensons and Jeff Inmans. Still, however, this is the approach (high-upside lottery tickets in the later rounds) that will keep our farm system strong for years to come, even when we’re not picking in the top 10 of the draft.

Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.

ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker

Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.

Total Internet Points: 9001

by wg1of5 on Sep 15, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually...

two have floundered…Alvarez and Sanchez.

by Thunder on Sep 15, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

And college hitters are supposed to be the safest bets.

by bolton on Sep 15, 2011 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Robbie

Grossman says hi?

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 16, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

My general question, and I’ve yet to form an opinion on the matter, is does the Pirates organization possess the scouting and development acumen to continue to acquire and development impact amateur talent when they no longer have the benefit of high picks.

It would be interesting to look at the top ten prospects in the other 9 systems to see when/how they were acquired. It strikes me that it would a combination of a strong presence in Latin America, over slot signings, and scouting and development (assuming you believe players like Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings are examples of superior performance in those areas and not simply getting lucky, and in the case of the Rays that seems a reasonable assumption).

by rj.reynolds on Sep 15, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

For as much noise there is about the Pirates drafting position being the only reason for thier success

3 of the players that we expect to be in the top 100 were picked 52nd overall (Allie), 61st overall (Bell) and an international free agent, that all teams had an opportunity to sign. The drone from the Yinzers is that we don’t give credit to NH for the draft, and maybe you don’t for Cole and Tallion, but these other 3 are guys who were passed on by all other teams (except Detroit, with Bell, and maybe another exception or two) and NH picked them up. There had to be some credit there.

by Wizard of Woz on Sep 16, 2011 9:33 AM EDT reply actions  

You also have to credit partially for Cole and Taillon because if you don’t, then you are removing our 1st round picks completely, leaving us without NH’s best shot to add top talent.

by Mr. E on Sep 16, 2011 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

but the argument often goes “Well, anyone would have picked those guys”. I can give that point away, ans still argue that he has had good drafts.

by Wizard of Woz on Sep 19, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

Does anyone know how the Royals system looked in 2009 or so?

They had many guys break-out or have very good years which seemed to vault their system. If some guys have bounce-back years (Allie, Sanchez) and others like Cole and Taillon perform like expected, I think that would send them up pretty far.
Of other teams who would be higher than the Bucs…I don’t claim to know much about other teams and their systems. But from what I’ve read, Toronto, Tampa, Boston, Texas, NYY, Cincy, maybe KC. So yeah, I guess they would be in the top 10.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 16, 2011 7:45 PM EDT reply actions  

There COULD be a bunch of graduations next year but we might also be looking at most of our top 10 returning, while adding another draft class and another year for breakouts.

by Mr. E on Sep 16, 2011 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pirates prospects

One can find here a mini-debate about Taillon, Marte and, to a lesser degree, Allie and Heredia. It’s in the discussion area. You’ll need to scroll down through the replies to find it.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 17, 2011 3:29 PM EDT reply actions  

Great

Thanks for that link. Some inspired Pirate debate there…

by NastyNate82 on Sep 17, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Who is qualified to answer?

1. I suppose someone could take a crack at answering by using one of the historical expert lists (e.g., BA’s most recent list), and then studying who has graduated and who has been added for each team. But that would be significantly incomplete without also analyzing the progress of “holdover” prospects in each team’s system.

2. Another possible approach would be to establish a complex, weighted statistics-based process, and plug in the relevant data for all 30 minor league systems. However, I’m confident that such an approach would be ridiculed here and elsewhere, for many reasons. (I would never advocate such a system.)

3. In reality, one would need to establish a set of sensible criteria for making such judgments AND acquire extensive, in-depth knowledge of all 30 miinor league systems, in order to answer the question with any degree of confidence. Does anyone here have extensive enough knowledge (similar to that of people like Law and Sickels?)

Don’t get me wrong….. I’m not criticizing the question or any of those who have answered. And I know there are several regulars here who maintain extensive knowledge of the Pirates’ minor league system, as well as those who follow highly-rated prospects across baseball. Some may do both. But is even that enough?

I know that I don’t have anywhere near adequate knowledge to make a guess. So….. I’ll wait to see what the experts come up with and perhaps participate in the inevitable discussion which will take place here after such lists come out.

by magnumo on Sep 17, 2011 6:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Sounds about right...

I kind of wonder how much of their rise would be due to their prospects playing well and other teams graduating prospects

by NastyNate82 on Sep 17, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Upside-wise, Taillon/Cole/Heredia/Allie/Bell/Marte is a pretty damn impressive group. I don’t think their hitting pipeline allows them to be top ten, but they should be in the top half of the league. Sanchez needs to rebound, Grossman needs to continue to develop, and they need to have another good draft before I feel completely comfortable with them as a top 10 system.

No jinx no jinx no jinx.

by Suffering Buc on Sep 18, 2011 12:38 AM EDT reply actions  

As barren as their system is with hitters

you think so? This is picking some serious nits but if they’re in the top 10, they’re right around 10 due to a big lack in hitting prospects.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 18, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

As barren?

I mean, the top 4 hitters in the system are Marte, Bell, Grossman, and Sanchez.

My personal grades for those are

Marte B+
Bell B/B+
Grossman B-/B
Sanchez B-

That’s a pretty solid group right there to go along with “the top pitching in the minors” although Seattle, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis (off the top of my head) would probably have some issue with that statement.. maybe even Toronto too.

Behind them you have, in no particular order

D’Arnaud (I think he’ll still be eligible)
Lambo
Hernandez
Curry
Dickerson
Cunningham
Rojas Jr.
Cabrera
Mercer

and that’s just kinda that “next tier.” Another tier could include

Grovatt
Maggi
Lakind
Hanson
Osuna
Herrera

etc etc.

I’d say if you compared just positional prospects league-wide, the Pirates would rank at least in the top 20. The hitting has come along way since last year, with the emergence of Marte and Grossman, and to a lesser extent Curry and Cunningham, and the additions of Bell and Dickerson.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 18, 2011 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions  

I’m not including Bell yet since he hasn’t performed yet. Sanchez is coming off a bad year, and this is the first year Grossman took a big step forward. So of those big 4, only Marte has an extended record of success.
The rest of the guys you mention…I’d only really put Cunningham, Dickerson, Hanson, and maybe Rojas as the possibility of being impact hitters. I don’t really think the rest sound tremendous or are too low to really get too excited about yet.
Barren may be too strong a word as far as having ANY hitting in the system, but if we’re talking impact bats, I don’t think its too far off.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 18, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

You're also

Just looking at the Bucs system. The whole wild card in this situation is what other systems have in terms of impact hitters.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 19, 2011 7:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

d’Arnaud, Harrison and Presley have too many at bats to be considered rookies for the 2012 season. 130 AB is the cutoff.

by Thunder on Sep 19, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

is it 130... thought it was 180

My mistake.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 19, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

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