Where we stand

by steve_z on Sep 18, 2011 9:03 PM EDT

The Pirates currently are a top-ten draft picking team for the upcoming Draft. They are now ranked eighth. Unfortunately or, perhaps, not, the team is free falling to oblivion. Here is a table with the current top-ten order:

Rank	Team	Wins	Losses	Games Back
1	Astros	52	100	0
2	Twins	59	92	7.5
3	Orioles	62	89	10.5
4	Mariners	63	89	11
5	Padres	65	88	12.5
6	Royals	67	87	14
7	Cubs	67	86	14.5
8	Pirates	68	85	15.5
9	Marlins	69	84	16.5
9	Athletics	69	84	16.5

Supposedly the 2012 Draft Class has no clear number one pick. On the other hand, it does have enough quality players that the Pirates can expect to draft one with the eighth pick. The eligible position players include:

Nick Williams (OF, L/L, Prep)
Kenny Diekroeger (SS, R/R, College)
Trey Williams (3B/OF, R/R, Prep)
Deven Marrero (SS, R/R, College)
Brian Goodwin (OF, L/R, College)
Steve Nyisztor (2B/SS, R/R, College)

I'd like it if the Pirates were able to pick and sign one of the two Williams. My preference is based on hype, of course, and a perceived need for power hitting prospects in the organization. Naturally, these rankings may change by June 2012. Other players may climb the ladder. The Pirates ought to pick the Best Player Available. But the more bats the better. The Pirates may make good on my wish if the team continues to lose as it has since the All Star Game. In any case, looking forward to taking high-quality draft picks is a consolation prize given to lesser teams in the league, and it is a prize worth having.

Edit

Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects also recently discussed the 2012 draft along with the Pirates' needs and possible choices.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Really nice job on this

Nice post. Well laid-out and thought-out. It’s crazy how much we’ve fallen since July. As much as I hate to see us lose, the opportunity to add another high draft pick is an okay consolation prize.

Obligatory, though: it’s waaaaaaaay too early to start prognosticating who’s gonna be available in next year’s draft. Remember that this time last year most of us expected Rendon to be the no-brainer #1 pick.

by Garrett122 on Sep 18, 2011 9:23 PM EDT reply actions

Thanks

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 18, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Victor Roache

Is my guy right now (assuming he’s there). Of course a lot can (and will) change between now and draft time.

by ElDuce on Sep 18, 2011 10:04 PM EDT reply actions

The Pirates could pair Roache with this guy or this one.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 19, 2011 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Or Lambo

by Wizard of Woz on Sep 19, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Wasn't Goodwin drafted by the Nats this year in the Supp. Round?

I thought he got booted from UNC and went to a community college where he was eligible for the draft. One guy missing from this list, and I’m not sure if he’s one of those guys who is gaining steam here, is Byron Buxton out of Georgia, who has drawn Upton comparisons. Since the season is obviously shot already, I wouldn’t mind the Bucs falling a few spots more to get a better pick.
By the way…I’m with ElDuce on the Vic Roache pick. College bat and a great name to boot.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 18, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions

Yes

Goodwin signed with the Nats.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 18, 2011 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions

He shows up on older 2012 draft lists because he was originally going to UNC. He spent his freshman year there, but got suspended for the year, quit the team, and went the JC route. Worked out pretty well for him too as he got $3 million.

by ElDuce on Sep 18, 2011 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Was kind of hoping he'd fall to the Bucs in round 2

But…I’m happy with what they picked.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 18, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions

Kenny Diekroeger (SS, R/R, College) please.

I really like him. Tulo upside in my opinion.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 18, 2011 10:40 PM EDT reply actions

You like him better than Marrero?

Hmmm…let me know what you’ve read on him, because the stuff I’ve seen has Marrero pegged higher. Of course, it would be really nice to land a possible impact player at short. If they’re going to go with a pitcher, I’d love Giolito.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 18, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

I think Diekroeger has more upside with the bat, but I don’t think he’s a shortstop. Marrero definitely is.

by ElDuce on Sep 18, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions

That

sums it up. Diekroeger has way more upside with the bat, although less of a chance to stick at short. However, I personally think he will stick at short. The dude is fairly big, but is an elite athlete.

In fact, in high school, he scored the highest on the SPARQ test – a test made by Nike to measure athleticism past your standard 40-time and vertical leap – of any high school baseball player nationwide.

That was ahead of some dude named Mike Trout (Link here). He had a good freshman season, but a “lackluster” sophomore season has “dropped” him from a good bet to go #1 (he was the odds on favorite to be #1 around this time last year) all the to the mid to late single digits.

Now athleticism isn’t everything and in the same article BA sums that up,

In scouting position players, hitting ability trumps all else. Non hitting tools are of secondary consideration, but important nonetheless. Philosophies change over time, but baseball is still a sport played by athletes, John Kruk’s viewpoint notwithstanding.

That’s why it’s a good thing Diekroeger comes with elite bad speed. He had some less than ideal plate discipline according to the numbers, but it’s nothing alarming. All-in-all, I believe if there were absolutely no questions about his glove and he had hit .350 instead of .293, he’d be the consensus #1 pick right now.

For the record, Diekroeger is 6’2, 200lb while Tulo is listed at 6’3, 215lb. It’s also not like Tulo is an elite defender. He’s above-average, with below-average range that he compensates for by not making errors and being solid at turning double players. If Diekroeger is the elite athlete he seems to be, there’s no reason to think he can’t do something similar, and hopefully as he grows and matures (he’ll turn 21 in November) he can turn that elite bat speed into an elite bat.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 19, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

If he were to move off of SS,

Would he be more likely to move to 2B or CF rather than 3B?

by NastyNate82 on Sep 19, 2011 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Seems

CF would be the first place tried ALA Grant Green.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 19, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Is that a good comp?

Both he and Morerro seem quite interesting…crop seems a little down for college bats, no?

by NastyNate82 on Sep 20, 2011 7:21 AM EDT up reply actions

I like

Kenny way more than Grant as far as his bat. The comp was more of a defensive comp because if Kenny were moved off of SS it wouldn’t be to 3rd like a Miguel Sano. Instead, he could probably move to CF.

Grant Green has already made that transition (I believe it was him) in the minor leagues… Looking now he may have moved back. I’m unsure without doing in-depth research, but there was definitely discussion of moving him there and he played there for at least a few games.

B.J. Upton was also drafted as a HS SS for example before being moved to CF.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 20, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

please remember that Upton was STILL a shortstop in his first stint with the Devil Rays...

he also played some 3B and 2B before the Rays finally put him in the OF

by white angus on Sep 20, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks

Green never sounded too appealing to me at all…maybe I’m looking at one side of it, but everything seemed to focus on things he “can’t” do (such as stick at short, hit for power). One guy missing from the list who seems to be popping up on these lists is Zunino.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 20, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions

We could move up to pick 6 if things break correctly, hopefully we lose out.

In terms of who I want, I want BPA with 0 regard to position or pitcher handedness.

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Sep 18, 2011 11:40 PM EDT reply actions

Go ahead...take the easy way out, haha

But…yeah, thats the correct policy.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 18, 2011 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions

You work 3 or 4 pitchers into this and it is not out of the question that a couple of these guys are on the board when we pick.

by insane_sanity on Sep 19, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions

tim williams says that a kid named gavin cecchini may be what the pirates are looking for

by white angus on Sep 19, 2011 7:23 AM EDT reply actions

HS

SS with the glove to definitely stick at short and plenty of upside. Older brother is a farmhand (and a good one) for the Red Sox.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 19, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I liked Garin a lot coming into the 2010 draft.

If Gavin’s anything like his brother, he’ll be a good one. Garin would’ve been a first-rounder if he hadn’t torn his ACL. Even as it was, he got first-round money from the Sox as an above-slot sign.

From the little bit of film I’ve seen of Gavin I’ve seen so far, his wrists aren’t quite as quick as his brother’s . He’s a year younger than Garin was when I was watching him, though, so he’s still got time to catch up. (He’s also a RHB, not that it matters much.) Defensively, he’s got the tools for short, but looked a little scattered out on the field, trying to rush things rather than getting settled and making his throw. Have to keep an eye on that, and see how it develops…

by Vlad on Sep 19, 2011 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Steve Nyisztor (2B/SS, R/R, College)

Copy editors and headline writers agree: No, thank you.

OTOH, that looks like about 137 points in Scrabble (counting the extra 50 for using all your tiles).

by bucdaddy on Sep 19, 2011 10:03 AM EDT reply actions

Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Nyisztor R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Sep 19, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Buc's Surging?

I love the games back feature. The way we are playing, I think we can catch the Padres, but the Mariners seem to be just out of reach.

by BobDH on Sep 19, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions

Pessimist

by bucdaddy on Sep 20, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions

**Updated

Tied with the Cubs

1 game back of the Royals

2 back of the Padres

3.5 back of the Mariners.

This is exciting stuff!

It’s a bit surprising to me how bad the Royals have been. I thought they’d be more of a 75-80 win team looking at their roster.

by jlk9697 on Sep 20, 2011 12:18 PM EDT reply actions

Yep

t’s a bit surprising to me how bad the Royals have been. I thought they’d be more of a 75-80 win team looking at their roster.

The 3rd Order Adjusted Standings his the Royals’ winning percentage at .478. In other words, the Royals would have 6.6 additional wins if the team had won at the expected rate. The Pirates are currently 9.0 wins better thran their 3rd Order projection.

s.zielinski

by steve_z on Sep 20, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

look deeper at the Royals roster issues.

they have had excellent drafts, no doubt. but they spent a shitload of money on players that no other team would really want at that price. meche, guillen…

they picked some nice bats in the draft, and they are finally showing their abilities. butler, gordon, hosmer. yet their arms have failed miserably and/or not got over the hump in the minors. hochevar, montgomery, davies.

with the royals it seems that if one thing is working, like the hitting, then the pitching will suck, like it has this season.
when the pitching is decent, the hitting is non existent, like when Greinke and Meche were leading the way.

when you believe that Joey Gathright is the answer to your leadoff issues, then you yourself have some issues.

by white angus on Sep 20, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder

if that might prompt them to trade some of the young hitting guys for some pitching. If they really wanted to pull a blockbuster off, they’d give the Braves a call.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 20, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions

I think

they just need to stay patient. They still have significant depth both on the hitting and pitching side in regards to young talent.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 20, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

You have a point there

But while people say that guys like Myers, Hosmer, and Moose are A-type prospects, was anyone saying they had any of those type guys in pitching or were Lamb and Duffy a bit below that? Of course…if their hitters improve, as they’d hope maybe they can just slug their way to 9-8 wins.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 20, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Lamb

and Duffy were more B+ guys. They have so much depth. If they just wait 2 years, they will have a clearer pitcher, and can fill the one or two hole(s) they will have.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 20, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions

its going to be hard for the Royals to slug their ways to wins...

when half their games are played in Kauffman Stadium. Hosmer is the real deal, a true hitter, similar to Butler except with a better glove. Moose will probably never hit well in KC. Myers was completely overmatched in AA this season. Christian Colon was steady but not spectacular. Jeff Bianchi cant stay healthy.

Their top pitching prospect Montgomery struggled badly. The only pitcher who really showed anything this season was Duffy.

KC will be bad again next year because of lack of pitching. for them to bypass the whitesox and indians, they are going to have to get some pitching in house.
thats why i have mentioned in the past that they should deal Butler and/or Robinson for some pitching.

by white angus on Sep 21, 2011 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions

i like to say the word "pitching" as much as possible in any given paragraph

by white angus on Sep 21, 2011 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree

kinda.. but they don’t need to be good next year. Why panic?

kinda.. but they don’t need to be good next year. Why panic?Melky Cabrera is a free agent after 2012 and Alex Gordon after 2013, but other than that no one remotely important leaves until after 2015. They should at least wait until NEXT offseason (between 2012 and 13 season) before even worrying about making any moves if you ask me. They need to continue to let their guys develop and see who they have.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 21, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh

no.. it’s happening.

Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 21, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions

bye bye Ka'aihue

by white angus on Sep 21, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions

You also have to think about

pitchers and an adjustment period. Montgomery and Duffy, if they even do turn out to be good, aren’t going likely to come out and be like Verlander out of the gate. I would think that they would take some lumps right away…so if you look at say 3, years down the road…thats a long ways away, considering their hitters are doing pretty well right now.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 21, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not saying panic...

I’m just saying it wouldn’t be the worst idea to examine trading something you may have a glut of for something you’re short in. For example (they don’t work as an organization because they’d never do this) but the Yankees have many young catchers in their organization (Montero, Romine, Sanchez, John Murphy) so it may not hurt to shop around to see if someone wanted a young catcher if they were short of say, young pitching. I’m thinking Garza for Delmon Young…along those lines.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 21, 2011 8:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Myers and Moose

Was 20 years old (or 2 years younger than Marte or almost 3 years younger than Sanchez) at the same level. I’m also curious as to why “Moose will never hit well in KC,” given that there is no hard evidence otherwise. Thats similar to saying Pedro will never do as well as he did last year ever again.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 21, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

sorry, that should read Myers being at the same level as Marte and 2 years younger

by NastyNate82 on Sep 21, 2011 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions

moose will never hit well at home.

hes a flyball hitter in a park that kills fly ball hitters. its just my belief.

by white angus on Sep 21, 2011 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe

But…like people pulling the plug on Pedro after 1 2/3 year, I think its fair that less than half that for Moose gives him some extra time to see how this works out, but you may be right. Is he a better bet to stick at 3rd than Pedro? I just ask cause he’s a big boy…5’11, 230.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 21, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

im not saying that Moose is going to be a bust, im just saying guys like him usually dont do well at Kauffman.

Moose is better at 3B than Pedro, but hes still a possible future corner outfielder. hes a fairly good athlete.

hes also not a huge strikeout guy. but he definately is a fly ball hitter.

royals alltime record for HR in a season was Balboni w/ 36
home HR record in a season was 21 (chili davis and dean palmer)
this happened in the late 90’s, and we all know that some of the homers back then werent exactly wind aided.

by white angus on Sep 21, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions

C'mon

You mean, you don’t think those homers were legit?!?! One thing Moose may have in common with Pedro, is I think they both had big issues with lefties…which, is significant.
I dunno…maybe it just seems that Moose is just another guy there, since they have Gordon, Hosmer, Myers, and him…and here (at least right now) its just McC and Pedro. Kind of puts more pressure on our guys. That just makes me feel a little down…and then you have Starling, who could be the best of any of the guys mentioned here.

by NastyNate82 on Sep 21, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

actually moose is a better "hitter" than Pedro. much better pitch recognition too.

Myers is still in doubleA. we cant really count him just yet.
Gordon is finally reaching his potential, and getting him off of 3B will help that hip immensely. Butler is the best hitter in the bunch. Hosmer is their best overall talent. Good guys to build around.

but they need pitching something awful.

by white angus on Sep 22, 2011 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions