2012 MLB Draft Order
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 29, 2011 1:51 AM EDT
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PrintThe question of the 2012 MLB Draft order came up today in the comments. This is just me piecing it together myself. Let me know if I messed up anywhere. The rules are that teams pick in order based on worst record to best, with any tie being determined by last year's record, with the team with the worst record picking first. (That's why the Pirates pick ahead of the Marlins.) In addition, teams whose 2011 first-round picks failed to sign get that pick plus one. The only team that affected this year was the Blue Jays, who didn't sign Tyler Beede at No. 21, so they get No. 22 in 2012.
1. Astros
2. Twins
3. Mariners
4. Orioles
5. Royals
6. Cubs
7. Padres
8. Pirates
9. Marlins
10. Rockies
11. Athletics
12. Mets
13. White Sox
14. Reds
15. Indians
16. Nationals
17. Blue Jays
18. Dodgers
19. Angels
20. Giants
21. Braves
22. Blue Jays (for failure to sign 2011 first-rounder Tyler Beede)
23. Cardinals
24. Red Sox
25. Rays
26. Diamondbacks
27. Tigers
28. Brewers
29. Rangers
30. Yankees
31. Phillies
This will change, obviously, with the signing of free agents, but this should be the starting point.
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I tend not to get too worked up about that this far out. It’s a long way away, and the top prospects all have a bunch of baseball to play before they’re picked.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 29, 2011 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions
well
at least not picking top 3-and as far as i’ve read there’s no dominate #1 guy like Strasburg or harper even though i think harper is overhyped a bit jr college, minors are big difference then the SHOW majors
No guarantees, but he dominated Class A and held his own in AA at age 18. He’s the best prospect in baseball.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 29, 2011 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll
take Matt Moore over Harper. Both are great, but Matt Moore absolutely dominated a major league team in his debut. It honestly was Straburg-esque.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 29, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but can Moore throw major league tantrums like Harper?
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Except it was the Yankees D-team
since it was the day after they clinched. He’s a great prospect, but I’d never take Moore over Harper.
right now, i think i WOULD take Moore over Harper
the dude is just sick, trust me on this. i knew hellickson was going to be good, but moore has a chance to be a harder throwing cole hamels.
that might not sound good to some, but to me thats better than Harper
by white angus on Sep 29, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
think Johan Santana in his prime...
even better than the Hamels comparison. Moore has that chance.
by white angus on Sep 29, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe
But I kind of see Harper as a lefty Mike Stanton now, except with the ability to steal 20-30 bases. Lets be honest…they’re both incredibly talented, so I don’t think you can go wrong with either one. Looking at guys who are still prospects RIGHT NOW, I’d say the only two guys I’d take over Moore are Harper and Trout.
by NastyNate82 on Sep 29, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
the draft
will appear to be top heavy in HS talent as it stands right now. SS is one area that is quite strong with players like Kenny Diekroeger, Addison Russell, Gavin Checchini, and Deven Marrero all expected to go in the first round. 1B looks like it will have a few but no Top 10 prospects yet with Victor Roache being the closest. Just from what I’ve seen and what I’ve read, the ten best prospects right now are:
RHP Kevin Gausman (LSU)
RHP Lance McCullers (HS FL)
RHP Mark Appel (Stanford)
OF Byron Buxton (HS GA)
SS Devin Marrero (Arizona State)
C Mike Zunino (Florida)
RHP Lucas Giolitto (HS CA)
OF Nick Williams (HS TX)
SS Gavin Checchini (HS LA)
by PuncSpeedChunk on Sep 29, 2011 2:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I really need to go to bed
Number 10. would probably be between 3B Trey Williams (HS CA) and LHP Max Fried (HS CA)
by PuncSpeedChunk on Sep 29, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Couple of shortstops there
1 High school, 1 College. I think the college would help us out more immediately if we were to lean that way. I feel like SS is our weakest point in the minors right now considering what we had to bring up to cover SS.
Now I hear that Harrison is going to winterball to play a lot of SS so, to me, this is also a sign that management realizes that there isn’t a truely viable MLB SS option in our minor league system.
To me it may be SS and 2B though our current MLB 2B hopefully will hold the fort for several more years.
Harrison playing SS in winter ball probably has more to do with him positioning himself as a UT IF candidate for subsequent seasons.
Yeah, he doesn’t have the D to play that position for more than an inning or two. I don’t think a couple months of winter ball is going to change that.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 29, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I don’t either, but if he can get people thinking of him as a guy who can handle SS for short stretches (like Keppinger), that makes it easier for him to keep getting jobs three or four years from now.
It’s a remarkably clear-eyed move by Harrison. Most young players aren’t able to be that objective about their own weaknesses and limitations.
Incidentally
UZR liked Harrison’s defense a fair amount this year, even though it seems like everyone on this board hated it. Thoughts?
I mean, yes, SSS and especially so for UZR, but the consensus here was that he was sub-Bautista at the position, which is really, really far from 12.9 UZR/150. I don’t think he’s really a plus 3B, but maybe he’s actually fine out there?
i dont think hes a plus defender either, but he looks more than acceptable at both 3B and 2B
by white angus on Sep 29, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Thing is
He can hit a bit. If he really is, let’s say, league average at 2B/3B, then he becomes a really useful guy on the bench (especially if he translates his bat in PH situations, the way Paul can’t). When he first came up, the knock was that he was a poor defender whose bat wouldn’t play in the bigs, but if he’s an OK defender, and he takes just a few more walks, he’s actually a borderline starter guy – which is awesome for the bench.
Actually, I see now that there were 4 everyday 3Bsª with wRC+ between 68 and 85; J-Hay ended at 79. I would never say that he should start, but the point is that he’s not actually a borderline MLBer; he’s a borderline starter, more or less. It’ll be interesting to see how he progresses.
A note on his walks: he only BB’d 3 times in 204 PAs (less 5 sacs), but he went 59 PAs in September without a single walk. Given his not-awful K rate (11.2%), he clearly knows where the strike zone is; he’s just unwilling to take enough pitches. Just a couple more walks, and his OPS is a respectable (for the bench) .665. Oh, and for the record, .304 BABIP – none of the AVG is luck
ª McGahee, Prado, Polanco, Valencia
I think he’ll be OK as a bench guy. Just OK, not good. I don’t think the K rate shows that he knows where the strike zone is, it just shows that he has the reflexes to get the bat on the ball, like Randall Simon did, and doesn’t care where the strike zone is. This guy swings at pitches over his head, pitches that bounce in front of the plate, pitches that would be behind a left-handed hitter. There really are very few players with this sort of approach. I have to think that, ultimately, he’ll tone that down a little. He won’t survive long as is.
I’m guessing, though, that what you’ll see a lot this winter is arguments that he should be the starter at third. We’ll see.
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
Remember
this is just my opinion. Marrero is projected, right now, to be a top 5 pick. He has incredible range and a strong arm mixed with a very good approach at the plate. Barring a regression or injury, Marrero will probably not be available at #8.
Cecchini is also a stud athlete. Batted .532, stole a bunch of bases, hit a bunch of home runs, has excellent range at a short and a good arm. Pretty much the high school equivalent to Marrero.
There are also two other shortstops who could shoot up the list: Kenny Diekroeger (Stanford) and Addison Russell (HS FL).
If you want a site with all the prospects profiles and everything, try http://mlbdraftguide.com/1/2011/06/13/2012-draft-prospect-list/
by PuncSpeedChunk on Sep 29, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I
love Diekroger. I think he has Tulo upside. I hope he has a solid year to grab our interest, but not good enough to propel him into the top 5.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 29, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I know he's a great athlete
But they’re talking about him moving off SS and he has little patience and power. What, other than the athleticism, do you see in him that convinces you he has the Tulo upside?
Here is one recent post
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/9/22/2442208/another-top-2012-draft-prospect-list
It’s early, but a solid reference point
And to continue on to our second round pick . . .
30. Yankees
31. Phillies
…
…
…
832. Pirates
You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.
by WTM on Sep 29, 2011 6:43 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Ha!
nearly, seems like…
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Sep 29, 2011 6:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Won't
we probably be getting at least two comp picks if they still exist finally. Both Doumit and Ludwick are virtual locks to be type B guys. It seems like we won’t be retaining either, and since they are type-B, other teams will be willing to sign them since they don’t lose a draft pick…
Or am I missing something?
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 29, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, we'd have to offer them both arb.
Doumit will decline, as Lee also likely will if we offer it to him. Ludwick, however, isn’t worth nearly what he’d get in arbitration, so it’s hard to see the Pirates taking the risk that he’ll accept it.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
Reallly
I’d think Ludwick would get crap money.. If not, hopefully we have a handshake agreement.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 29, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, Ludwick made nearly $7M this year.
And even though there is no maximum salary reduction for to-be free agents in arbitration, it’s hard to see his pay being slashed that severely, seeing as he can at least point to decent RBI numbers over the past few years (these, unfortunately, can be taken into heavy consideration if you’ve got the wrong arbitrator). $5M is probably a reasonable guess, which would be more money than I can see us doling out for a fourth outfielder.
So yeah, a handshake agreement would be pretty great. That’s likely our best bet for getting compensation for Ludwick.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
I know
this is probably thinking too much outside the box, but what if we offer him arb, and if he does sign, look to aggressively trade Presley. If he doesn’t accept, pick up the extra pick and go along as normal.
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 29, 2011 6:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I think arbitration guaranties the player he'll get at least 80% of the salary of the previous year
That would put him at around $5.5M for 2012. Far too much for a guy hitting like he did the last 2 years.
If he’s offered arbitration, his best bet is to take it. You can’t let $5M go by when you’re hitting like a AAAA guy. Just ask Overbay.
Not for an impending free agent, it doesn't.
I thought the same as you before making that comment above, but I looked it up prior to posting to double-check, and that only applies to arb-eligible players who are not FA-eligible.
That said, he’d still probably get something like $5M, for the reasons I mentioned above. And yes, that’s why I don’t think we will offer it to him – like you said, if he gets offered arb, he’s going to take it (unless he’s already made an under-the-table agreement with us not to do so).
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
ARE YOU F#$%ING KIDDING ME!!!! ADAMS!!! JESUS TAPDANCING CHRIST YOU HAD 24 SQUARE FEET AND YOU MISSED IT ALL!! - OlenWhitaker
Certified Grabbo Lover, though only by accident.
Total Internet Points: 9001
i really REALLY hope
Nick Williams falls to #8
Not counting on it though
looks like
there could be some solid bats available when the Pirates get a pick.
and if not, that means there should be some arms available — good arms are always marketable.
by insane_sanity on Sep 29, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Like Charlie said,
It’s way too early to discuss who the top draft prospects are, but I’m going to go ahead and assume there will be exactly seven premium players available in the draft.
by biggyv on Sep 29, 2011 10:10 AM EDT reply actions 5 recs
#1 or #8
Does it really matter? The Pirates have no idea what they are doing.
Schucks!
Losing one more game would’ve had us picking 5th instead of 8th.
Very unfortunate.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Yep
I wanted us to blow that win against the Brewers a few nights back. Cost us 3 spots. :(
Da'Sean Butler - A Mountaineer Legend
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Sep 29, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
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