Please bring back Derrek Lee: Or the strange case of Garrett Jones

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 10:41 AM EDT

It's been an amazing couple of days' worth of reading this weekend. Many people have suggested the idea that the Pirates should (in essence) just punt on 2012, by not attempting to re-sign Derrek Lee (or a similar 1B) and just leave it to Garrett Jones (or, shudder, Matt Hague), because the Pirates will get roughly the same production.

Yikes, has it really been that long since Pirates' fans have seen a true, legit power hitter (maybe Jason Bay, but more likely Brian Giles) that they forgot what they look like (or is it that the story of Garrett Jones is too nice to pass up.)?? I'm sorry to destroy any nice storylines, but Garrett Jones is not anywhere near close to even an aging Derrek Lee. They are not even in the same ballpark as hitters. Actually, they're not really close at fielding first base.

I love Garrett Jones' play as much as the next guy, but the Pirates' moves last year to cover BOTH 1B & a RF platoon partner, tell you all you need to know about the Pirates' thoughts about Jones' ability to hold down a job full-time. Has his play this year done anything to change that? Has he suddenly proved himself to be ready to be a full-time 1B for this team? Surely not.

Jones serves a very valuable role on this team. He's a great guy to get maybe 3 starts a week between the OF & 1B and be the first guy off the bench. Perhaps a continued platoon in RF, since the Pirates have a lot of good outfielders. But, with the Pirates' lack of organizational depth at 1B, not going after a 1B in the off-season makes zero sense.

And before we get all giddy about Jones, or to think he's good enough to cover for a Lee:

Jones is on pace for a .770 OPS. In his other full year, his OPS was .720. He did have that great half-season of .938, but that still puts his career OPS at .778.

People want to jump all over Derrek Lee's start to 2011 in Baltimore as being the end of Derrek Lee. It makes for the obvious storyline: Pirates jump on a guy, thinking he's going to rebound, but he's really on a steep decline at the end of his career. Don't let past happenings always prejudge your future moves. Don't be fooled: Derrek Lee is still a legitimate hitter in this league.

And Lee's stats weren't THAT bad. He hit 12 HRs and had a .706 OPS in 85 games. Baseball-Reference lists him as a 0.3 WAR for his time in Baltimore. So, funnily enough, Derrek Lee's horrific start in Baltimore is just a notch below what you get from Jones most of the time.

Just as a comparison, as a mentioned, Jones will almost assuredly set a full-season OPS high for himself this year. Let's say it remains at .770.

Derrek Lee has not finished even a half-season BELOW .770 since 1999.

These guys aren't in the same ballpark. The worst of Derrek Lee hits right about the area of the best of Garrett Jones.

This isn't a Garrett Jones hate-piece, but a reminder that maybe when it's been so long since we've seen a legitimate power hitter in a Pirates' uniform, that we shouldn't be so quick to dismiss a Derrek Lee in favor of Jones. Especially when it makes the Pirates' a much, much worse team. Keep them both!!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

1. “Yikes, has it really been that long since Pirates’ fans have seen a true, legit power hitter that they forgot what they look like?”

They don’t look like Derrek Lee.

2. " I’m sorry to destroy any nice storylines, but Garrett Jones is not anywhere near close to even an aging Derrek Lee. "

Lee: 252/307/431…Jones: .245/.326/.444. Jones has a better OBP and SLG, so how can you say he’s not even close? As you mention, Lee was a great hitter earlier in his career. But he’ll be 36 next year and is in the middle of his second consecutive down season. Plus, his “power” will be limited by PNC Park, which is very difficult on right-handers.

3. I love Garrett Jones’ play as much as the next guy,

That’s absolutely not true.

Now, I must admit that I like Garrett Jones LESS than the next guy. I’d like the Pirates to trade for a first baseman (someone mentioned Alonso yesterday, but I doubt the Reds would trade him within the division.) Clint Robinson is blocked in KC, Travis Snider needs a change of scenery. Those are but two possibilities. Neal Huntington’s pro scouts need to find a guy who can at least post an .800 OPS in the major leagues, even if they have defensive shortcomings. The Pirates need to stay away from players who are past their early 30s.

Throwing $5-$7 million at D. Lee is not what this teams needs to do in 2012. And, no, this team probably isn’t going to compete for a division title next season. The first three months were a fluke.

by bolton on Sep 4, 2011 11:11 AM EDT reply actions

the first FOUR months. Excuse me.

by bolton on Sep 4, 2011 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions

If you don't think that the Pirates aren't going to compete next year, that's fine, and, yes, DLee doesn't make sense.

However, I think the first four months showed that ANY ONE can compete in any given year.

The only reason I’d go after a Derrek Lee is because I think the Pirates will have a very competitive team next year, and with the Brewers sure to lose Fielder for next year, I think the NL Central becomes very winnable (is that a word??) for any in the division (maybe not the Astros).

So, we have a different view of capabilities of the Pirates’ in the near future.

But I would agree with you. If I thought the Pirates had ZERO chance next year (or even in 2013), then I wouldn’t have interest in Lee. But I think the Pirates have a serious run in them for next year.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

And let's not forget...

in addition to Fielder being gone, Pujols also be in another division.

The NL Central could very much be up for grabs!

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Probably very wishful thinking on Albert. He will stay in STL…or they will need new ownership.

by Thunder on Sep 4, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions

You're probably right, but stranger things have happened!

But, like I stated below, knowing the Pirates luck, if Pujols rejects the Cardinals offers and leaves for free agency, how much you wanna bet he ends up with the Cubs??

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Cards keep Pujols they probably lose Berkman and/or Edwin Jackson. That’s not insignificant now that Rasmus is gone also.

by Mr. E on Sep 4, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

If Pujols ends up in a cubs uni

there will be riots in STL.

by BlindSquirrel on Sep 4, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions

is that a word

I’m ok with it.

by BlindSquirrel on Sep 4, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions

A quibble and an opinion:

The quibble: Derrek Lee will be 36 tomorrow (September 6).

My opinion:

- I was OK with the trade for Lee, only because it meant the end of Lyle Overbay in Pittsburgh.

- Despite Lee’s nice 27 at bats with the Pirates, his OPS numbers have been trending downward (.972 in 2009, .775 in 2010, .746 in 2011). Those two sub-.800 OPS’s are his first since Y2K. It seems that a resurgence is unlikely at his age.

- Lee is playing this year for a base salary of $7.25 million, with bonuses for plate appearances that are likely to get him to $8 million. He gets a half million bonus for achieving 400 PA’s and he’s almost there. He’ll get another quarter of a mill for 425 PA’s, and that’s well within reach. (Those bonuses may be part of the reason the Pirates feel obligated to play Lee regularly for the remainder of the season….. which will prevent giving Hague a look this month.) At any rate, the question becomes, how much will it take to sign Lee for 2012? In my opinion, the absolute minimum would be $5 million, but I doubt that Lee would sign for that….. and I don’t think he’s worth that anway. I think a Jones-Pearce or Jones-Hague platoon would be likely to produce just as much, for much less money.

- Signing Lee for 2012 (at $5 mill or more) smells too much like signing Overbay for 2011.

by magnumo on Sep 5, 2011 3:05 PM EDT up reply actions

We already have a thread on exactly this topic.

by Charlie Wilmoth on Sep 4, 2011 11:16 AM EDT reply actions

Sorry Charlie, it was originally intended as a "Jones isn't the answer at 1B" post

but I did veer it a bit into the “re-sign Lee” (or someone like him) area that you covered yesterday.

My apologies.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Clint, is that you?

by maguro on Sep 4, 2011 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

haha!!!

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Interesting:

Just as a comparison, as a mentioned, Jones will almost assuredly set a full-season OPS high for himself this year. Let’s say it remains at .770.

Derrek Lee has not finished even a half-season BELOW .770 since 1999.

These guys aren’t in the same ballpark. The worst of Derrek Lee hits right about the area of the best of Garrett Jones.

D. Lee has also never been 36 before. Nobody is truly happy with the thought of Jones and perhaps Hague manning 1B to start next year. They’re just not so certain Lee will be all that much better, if at all, especially with age and injuries accumulating.

All of this is probably a moot point. Lee probably wouldn’t want to play in Pgh. next year anyway.

パトリック

by patthatt on Sep 4, 2011 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

You keep saying Lee is a better hitter than Jones but that doesn’t make it true. He’s also going to be 36 and 4 years removed from playing 150 games.

by Mr. E on Sep 4, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions

Really??

That’s funny Jim Thome has hit 369 HR in his 30’s.
He hit 42 HRs when he was 35, 35 when he was 36, 34 when he was 37, 23 when he was 38, 25 when he was 39 and has 13 so far this year.

Lance Berkman’s .948 OPS at the age of 35 has something he like to say to you.

Would you take 30+ HRs from the 1st base position?? How about a .900 OPS??

Please, get with the times, Mr. E. The days of power guys being over the hill are long-gone. While other aspects of their game my fall apart (which can be a major problem), the true power hitters find a way to keep hitting. Derrek Lee is FARRRR closer to the Thome/Berkman’s of the world than Garrett Jones or Matt Hague will ever be.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

by Mr. E on Sep 4, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

and 4 years removed from playing 150 games.

The Pirates don’t need him to play 150 games.

100-120 starts would be more than enough.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

silly

It’s silly to think that Pujols and Fielder won’t be back with their respective teams next year. I believe both will be back…

by FusilliJerry88 on Sep 4, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

Pujols probably has a decent chance of coming back, the Brewers putting so much money into 2 players in that market mean probably small odds for Prince to resign IMO.

by Justin Mos on Sep 4, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

I think there's a possibility that both are gone...but the stinkin' Cubs could make it a moot point.

I assume the Cubs make a play for both of them. So I guess it wouldn’t surprise me to see at least one of them still in the Central, even if the Brewers and Cards both lose their guy!

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

People want to jump all over Derrek Lee’s start to 2011 in Baltimore as being the end of Derrek Lee.

Lee was coming off thumb surgery, which is exactly the reason I didn’t want to sign him as a FA. He had a bad first half and then started hitting. Seems kinda obvious what was going on. He’s also on a different level as a hitter from the Lyle Overbays of the world, so there’s good reason to think he’s not washed up yet despite his age. It’s not that much of a stretch to think he could be a good hitter for another couple years if he’s healthy and if you’re realistic about the number of games he’s going to play.

I’m not sure whether I want to bring him back or not, but I think it’s at least a good idea to avoid the train of thought where you worry about what to do with Jones if Lee is re-signed. MLB rules DO allow you to have a guy with a 100+ OPS+ on the bench. As Pirate fans, we tend to think that every player who performs decently deserves to start, since we have so few of those. But some teams actually like having decent players on the bench, instead of the 60-odd OPS+ guys who always populate our bench.

You're entitled to your own opinions. You're not entitled to your own facts.

by WTM on Sep 4, 2011 12:47 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

+1

well said

by epoc on Sep 4, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you, thank you, thank you, WTM!!!

This is what I’m trying to say. People can argue the merits of whether to bring back Lee or not because you do/do not think the Pirates are contention worthy is fine (I say, “yes please!! I’d like to have Jones AND Lee”, but this silly notion that Jones/Hague are just as likely to give you the same production is only realistic because every guy has a chance to slump for a year or have a career year, but if you’re playing the odds, Derrek Lee (assuming he’s healthy) is going to give you lots of power and a huge OPS boost over a Jones/Hague combo almost every single time.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

Every single time

except the last 3 years

by Mr. E on Sep 4, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Really??

2009: Jones OPS: .938, Lee: .972
2010: Jones OPS: .720, Lee: .774

Perhaps 50 points doesn’t qualify as HUGE (though I think it’s big), but even an injured Lee outperforms a healthy Jones.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry, I should correct myself

but even an OLD, FALLING APART BROKEN DOWN injured Lee outperforms a healthy Jones.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions

If there are no decent young 1B on the trade market this winter, then I’m ok with Lee being brought back. NH would have way more knowledge of that than I.

by Mr. E on Sep 4, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough.

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions

+2

The repeated urging that Jones be moved is bewildering. It is as if bench/platoon guys with his numbers grow on trees. Another good week and his OPS cracks .800.

"Throw strikes, but don't give him anything good to hit."

by RichieHebner on Sep 5, 2011 5:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

This may be outside the subject...

But I haven’t read comments from Hurtle saying the Pirates should resign Ludwick who is also “five-year guy” who has been presumably “tested by fire”. Also I found it interesting that Ludwick does a rehab stint in Indy while Lee with the more serious injury didn’t. This all speaks something important about Lee as both a hitter and player.

(By the way, one can also replace the word “Doumit” for Ludwick in the above.)

by buccobob_houstontx on Sep 4, 2011 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

I think it speaks about Matt Hague and Alex Presley

by Mr. E on Sep 4, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Looked like Lee really needed a rehab assignment ;)

by Thunder on Sep 4, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point, buccobob.

Not sure about the rehab stuff, but if I’m Clint Hurdle, even if I get a 80% healthy Derrek Lee, he is the type of guy that opposing teams would pitch around and have a fear of. Even if it’s an outdated fear, Derrek Lee is one of those guys that teams know can put one out at any moment.

Can you imagine even 100 games of Lee batting behind McCutchen?? What kinds of numbers would McCutchen be able to put up? Would teams stop pitching McCutchen inside so much, knowing that if they put him on, there’s actually a dangerous bat behind him in the order?

by impliedi on Sep 4, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Hurtle

lol

by BlindSquirrel on Sep 4, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

You are very confused...

McCutchen was not being pitched around – that is the way pitchers are trying to get him out. This will not stop until he adjusts and it is no longer effective for them to do so. It has nothing to do with who is hitting behind him. Protection in the batting order is a concept that was debunked years ago, by the way.

by nycbucsfan on Sep 4, 2011 7:06 PM EDT reply actions

How many times does it need to be shown that protection doesn't significantly effect hitter performance?

Really, it’s been shown enough that the slight increase in hittable pitches resulting in slightly more power is offset by the decline in OBP from less walks. In short, history shows that lineup protection helping a guy a lot is a myth. Here’s your link.

http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/09/the-protection-externality-it-doesnt-exist/

by Justin Mos on Sep 4, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions

A note on Jones and the platoon

Career 125 wRC+ vs. righties (including his dismal 71 Twins PAs). You know who’s in that range among 1Bs? Cuddyer, Kotchman, and Texeira.

Now, you’re welcome to sneer at those guys and insist they’re not worth starting for a team with pretensions of contention, but I think you’d be in a minority.

It’s pretty clear that you’d be crazy or stupid to start a season planning to run Jones out 150 starts, but it’s absurd to pretend that the guy is a bum. His rates this year, with more PAs vs. LHPs than anyone would prefer (thanks to the collapses of Overbay and Diaz), are still decent. Keep him in a pretty strict platoon, and you’ve got half of an above average MLB 1B for cheap (he’s well above average as an RF, but that window seems to have closed).

The question then becomes whether you can justify $7M for 100 starts from Derek Lee, who could well decline to 100 OPS+ in 2012. I’m fine with the idea that having a serious, big-league 1B could make a meaningful difference in 2012, but I’m far from convinced that Lee could be a worthwhile plan for that.

by JRoth95 on Sep 5, 2011 9:51 PM EDT reply actions

please remember that Jones is extremely streaky, and his OPS is strengthened because of this.

a fulltime 1B is what this team needs. Lee, however, will not be back unless NH pays him a good deal. He was not happy to be traded to the Burgh.

by white angus on Sep 6, 2011 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions

Why not Pena?

A .353 .wOBA with good defense at first looks a lot better than .328 (Lee) or .333 (Jones). Pena struggles against lefties, but he’s still an upgrade over Jones, who is absolutely pathetic against them, and he is also a veteran with a good clubhouse reputation, if you go for that stuff.

by Sologub on Sep 6, 2011 12:39 PM EDT reply actions