Community Prospect #16
by epoc on Jan 10, 2012 6:46 PM EST
Email
Print
Zack Von Rosenberg narrowly wins the #15 spot with 44% of the vote. Colton Cain captured 38%, and no one else had more than 5%. Here's our list:
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Starling Marte
4. Josh Bell
5. Luis Heredia
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Stetson Allie
10. Nick Kingham
11. Rudy Owens
12. Jeff Locke
13. Jarek Cunningham
14. Alex Dickerson
15. Zack Von Rosenberg
I'm adding Hanson to the list just because I know he's getting at least one vote. Poll will last 24 hours.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
86 comments
|
3 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
+1
So lonely over here…
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
by wg1of5 on Jan 11, 2012 11:04 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
+1
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Jan 10, 2012 8:39 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
BRYAN MORRIS?
I will be shocked if Morris finishes in the top 20. He is 25 year old bullpen reliever in AA.
Are you stopping at 20?
I thought we were planning to go past 20
John Sickels actually had Morris at 13, which is the big difference between his list and ours so far (the top 10 are the same, just shuffled). Though given his writeup of Morris I’d probably rank him below Owens or Wilson.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 11, 2012 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
It's
just floor love, which isn’t bad. Morris is going to end up as a power bullpen arm. Probably a 7th or 8th guy with a chance to be a closer. That’s not super valuable, but it’s worth something.
On the other hand, if you take our community #9-15 prospects, and remove Locke and Owens, you’ve got 5 guys, Allie, Kingham, Cunningham, Dickerson, and ZVR. Of those 5 guys, I’d bet only 1 or 2 ever have more than a cup of coffee in the major leagues.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 11, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
My point is just that it’s reasonable to consider Morris, particularly at this stage of the game. I can see an argument for the guys 11-15 as well Cain, Hanson, etc over him however. I would certainly put him ahead of Mercer, Dodson, and perhaps Wilson though.
Right
I agree with you. I’m pointing out why other lists have him higher and why they are probably right.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 12, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Floor love, ceiling love, true love ;)
by tobynotjason on Jan 11, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
epoc
I’m curious as to why you chose Alen Hanson. I’m not sure I know much about him.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Jan 10, 2012 8:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Here is what I wrote about him a couple days ago. Basically, he has a broad base of skills, good makeup, and I think he can be an above-average player up the middle. The next bunch of position players are low-upside guys like Hernandez and Mercer or high-risk guys like Osuna and Rojas. For me, Hanson has the best skill-set of the high-upside guys and I’m not convinced any of the low-upside guys are going to be significant MLB contributors, so I prefer Hanson’s upside to their lower risk.
Comparing him to the pitchers is tougher, but the next guys on my list are Cain, Dodson, and Morris. I am very skeptical of Cain (fastball velo, dubious off-speed stuff); I don’t see Dodson being better than a #3/4 at best, and Morris is a reliever. I’d rather have Hanson.
forgot the link
Here is what I wrote about him earlier.
Thank You epoc
The reasons you stated about the pitchers on the list are basically the reason I voted Mercer. Plus Mercer is close to being ready to contribute to the Pirates as a young, cheap SS with capable defense and above average power. Maybe a little more time in AAA will allow him to improve his eye at the plate.
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Jan 10, 2012 10:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wilson
got the nod from me because he’s a lefty who can apparently touch 99 with his fastball. He’s in AAA so he’s closer to the ML club than some of the other guys. He’s at least still got a shot at being a starter. He needs better control but I think the stuff is there. I have concerns about Cain’s mechanics that makes me overlook his impressive numbers. Dodson needs to build on his strong showing in WV. Hanson is too far away for me and still too raw. I want to see Holmes before ranking him ahead of some of the others. Morris still has late-inning reliever upside but he’ll be 25 on Opening Day and he’s never pitched above AA. I feel like I might be voting for Wilson for a while but that’s my thinking.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 10, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'm no voting for him
but we might be getting to the point when Matt Curry gets put in as a tester…
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 10, 2012 10:45 PM EST reply actions
Well
I’ve got him at #15 so ya I’m down.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 10, 2012 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
Out of curiosity
did you come up with the term “isolated patience” that you used in Curry’s writeup? I can tell what you meant by it (OBP-BA) and I’ve used that calculation before when I’ve been looking at a player’s stats but I’ve never seen it called anything before.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 11, 2012 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
Nope
Seen it around a few times.
For example it’s used here under the section titled “RECK”
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 11, 2012 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
Mercer and Wilson
I don’t like the love for Mercer and Wilson at all. Almost half the vote here is going to guys who profile as a utility infielder and a middle reliever respectively. It’s bad enough we have a fifth starter at #11.
Mercer
Profiles as an ML starter or an AAAA player. He can field shortstop well and has power. Contact is the question.
Viva Clemente!
while i agree on Owens and Wilson (although I still like Wilson quite a bit)
ranking them high simply means that people are valuing floor.
by BurgherKing on Jan 11, 2012 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
floor
Floor doesn’t exist. There are like 20 players in all of the minor leagues that have a 90% chance of being significant major league contributors, and neither Wilson nor Mercer are among them. There’s a fairly decent chance that Wilson becomes a fungible middle reliever and Mercer becomes a 4A utility player (like Ciriaco or Anderson Hernandez). Those types of players provide some value to a team, but to an organization, from a development standpoint, they barely matter. If you don’t have one in the org., you can sign one to a minor league deal in any given offseason. (Speaking of which, the fact that the Pirates signed Hernandez and are reportedly still looking for a utility infielder doesn’t speak very highly of Mercer.) I don’t see any reason to value that on a prospect list. Guys who could be solid MLB regulars are infinitely more valuable.
Now, if you think Wilson and Mercer can be solid MLB regulars, that’s another argument. (I do think Owens can be a fifth starter, though, and I probably shouldn’t have complained about him being at #11.)
I don’t think so, personally. He doesn’t have a changeup, which makes starting all but impossible for a LHP. His stuff could play as a starter otherwise (though I don’t think it’s particularly good stuff, it could get by), but the lack of a changeup will kill him. Combine that with the command problems, and I don’t see a starting pitcher there. Curious to hear what makes you think otherwise.
Eh, I like Mercer.
A guy with elite glove skills and 15-HR pop is definitely a starter, as long as he can keep his OBP over .300 (and I think he can). I’d be voting for him now, if not for my very high opinion of Holmes.
Agree that Wilson is being overvalued a bit. I’d take him over a guy like Morris or Alderson, though.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
by wg1of5 on Jan 11, 2012 11:11 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Does Mercer have elite glove skills and 15-HR pop? He has a good glove, but when did it become elite? Baseball America rated Ciriaco’s defense better, and I wouldn’t be all that confident in calling Ciriaco a consistent +5 defender at SS. I don’t see any reason to believe Mercer is +8 or +10. I can’t seem to find recent TZ numbers for him, he was only about +7 per 150 games in A ball, and the conversion rate to the majors is a bitch.
And the 15-HR pop is an illusion. He has a career ISO of .137 and it was .146 in AAA last year. He had an anomalous 250 PA in AA at age 24, but it’s nothing to base a projection on. He has decent gap power for a middle infielder, but he’s not a 15-HR guy at the MLB level.
And seriously, if he was really an elite defender and a 15-HR guy, doesn’t he belong in the top five? And wouldn’t the Pirates have given him more opportunities at SS over the years? And wouldn’t they be giving him the starting role next year instead of signing Clint Barmes (who is basically a carbon copy of what you’re suggesting Mercer is)? None of this passes the sniff test.
Brian Cartwright said Mercer defensive stats were some of the best in the minors from 2008-10
I fanshotted that here. Don’t know if he reads these threads, but if he does we could ask him to chime in.
In general I think floor is the wrong term, since as you say there’s a decent chance that Mercer turns into Ciriaco. But I’d say the chance that Mercer turns into a major-league UT IF is greater than the chance that Dodson or Cain or even Kingham makes the bigs at all. And I’d say that the chance that he turns into 2011 Cedeno is greater than the chance that Dodson or Cain ever pitches in the rotation, just because the flameout rate of A-ball pitcher is so high. But the chance that one of those guys turns into a #2 or #3 starter is higher than the chance Mercer turns into Stephen Drew or someone.
If you grant me all that (and you may not), I think it’s a judgment call who you rank higher.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 11, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I’d be interested to hear what Brian has to say both about how/where he gets those numbers and what the ML translations are. I’d also be interested in what the breakdown is between 2B/SS/3B. TZ has Mercer at +13 in 278 games at SS over 2008 and 2009. Prima facie, I have trouble believing he’s a +30 defender just because more people would be hyping him as a serious prospect if his defense really were that special. As I said above, if people really believe he’s a special glove at SS, he should probably be getting consideration up around where Tony Sanchez went off the board, even with the questionable bat.
I agree in principle with your second and third paragraphs, though: it’s all a judgment call. I’m just baffled by why anyone would prefer a 50% chance of being a utility infielder over a 10% chance of being a #3 starter. Utility infielders are pretty easy to come by. I hear the Mets just signed a decent one for $1.2M. Does it really matter that we’re producing that type of guy ourselves rather than buying him cheaply on the FA market should the need arise? What’s important, IMO, is that we’re developing guys who can be solid starters in the bigs. Those are the guys who are expensive to buy, and those are the guys who help you win.
Agree to disagree
Sort of. I’m not particularly high on Wilson. I think we’ve pretty much seen that a bullpen can effectively be cobbled together from scratch, so IMO it seems like MiL relievers are pretty marginal in terms their value. So I have a hard time ranking a reliever ahead of most other prospects.
With Mercer though, you and I don’t see the same thing. I see an elite glove, solid-above avg pop (for his position mind you). To me, that says someone who is a starter at the ML level, especially given the position scarcity. I agree with wg1of5 that Mercer will be able to OBP at an acceptable level, and while he’ll never be a middle of the order guy, I think he’ll provide positive value as a starter. To me, that’s valuable.
All that said, I voted for Colton Cain. I think he’s got a higher ceiling than either (obviously) and his numbers were good enough last year for me to put him ahead of ZVR.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
As I said above, if Mercer is a starting-caliber SS, why did the Pirates sign Barmes to a two-year deal? And why isn’t he in our top ten? I think people are getting fooled by what he did in Altoona last year. He’s not very good.
Alright, perhaps elite is an overstatement
But there’s room for growth that would make him above avg with the glove. I don’t think that Altoona was a complete anomaly. We’ll see.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
i saw mercer play
easily more than 15 games at altoona but most were at third and some at second. his glove is four times more sure than d’arnaud’s and his arm is much better though i don’t think it’s particularly strong. i think his range is highly questionable. he’s not quick and he’s definitely not fast. i think he’s closer to being neil walker playing SS than jack wilson. he’s obviously better there than walker would be but his range is a huge issue for me.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Bucs Dugout
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
Baseball Nation Recent Stories
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
