Community Prospect #17
by epoc on Jan 11, 2012 6:41 PM EST
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Colton Cain ran away with poll #16, getting over half the vote. Wilson and Mercer were co-runners up, with 15% each. The list:
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Starling Marte
4. Josh Bell
5. Luis Heredia
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Stetson Allie
10. Nick Kingham
11. Rudy Owens
12. Jeff Locke
13. Jarek Cunningham
14. Alex Dickerson
15. Zack Von Rosenberg
16. Colton Cain
Upon request, I'm adding Matt Curry to the poll. Let me know if there's anyone else you want added soon. Poll will run for 24 hours.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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+1
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
+1
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 11, 2012 7:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 11, 2012 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
+1
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Jan 11, 2012 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
+1
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
If Mercer wins
this round, I will be voting for Holt next round.
by SojourningPirate on Jan 12, 2012 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
I guesss I'm the only Cabrera fan here...
the guy did win a batting title.
www.drstrangeglove.com
by nycbucsfan on Jan 12, 2012 3:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think I've got Dodson next
My placement of Mercer in the ZVR/Dodson/Cain crowd is pretty arbitrary.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 12, 2012 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
There are a lot of guys
I’m pumped about voting for down the road. The more I think about it, the more I think the list has to run 50 deep…
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 11, 2012 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Mercer
I’ll try to dissuade you all one more time. ;)
In the upcoming 2012 draft, with the #8 pick, would you prefer the Pirates to select a 25-year-old who profiles as a utility infielder or second-division starter if everything goes right (Mercer) or a 20-year-old LHP with 90 MPH velocity and two decent secondaries (Dodson) or an 18-year-old SS with five-tool potential (Hanson) or hell, even a 25-year-old RHP reliever with a mid-90s fastball that gets groundballs by the metric ton and two plus secondaries (Morris)? You’d really be comfortable spending the #8 pick on a 25-year-old utility player when guys like that are still on the board? Is there something about ranking prospects that makes it different than choosing draft picks?
I think so
I actually do think that there is something different about ranking prospects than drafting. I would draft the 18 SS and the 20 year old pitcher first (not the 25 year old reliever). I think the draft is about valuing upside and taking as much talent as you can.
I think ranking prospects takes the possible floor into account more than the draft. You expect some busts in a draft. Maybe even some busts in your first 10 picks. However, ranking prospects is supposed to avoid busts and rank major league return. Thus, if someone like Dodson could be a 3rd starter, but also has a decent chance of never making the majors, then he is ranked lower than someone who may be a good starting SS with some pop and strike out problems, but will at least be a utility infielder with good defense.
At least that is my philosophy on rankings.
by SojourningPirate on Jan 12, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
I can’t disagree with your philosophy of ranking, of course, but I do disagree with your evaluation of Mercer. He’s never going to be a “good” starting SS. He doesn’t have the bat or the glove to be that. Mr. E made the comp to Barmes, and I think it’s a good one. If absolutely everything goes right, Mercer is a second-division starter like that. And he won’t “at least” be a utility SS. He’ll at least be Brian Friday or Brian Bixler or someone like that who’s good enough to get to AAA but not good enough to see any real ML playing time (the Pirates seem to be treating him that way at the moment, for what it’s worth). And there’s a good chance that instead of a solid utility infielder he becomes a 4A player like Anderson Hernandez who gets cups of coffee from time to time but never really contributes anything substantial.
And again, I don’t think there’s any such thing as floor. To the extent that it exists, you take it account in the draft as well. I’m sure that the Mariners’ selection of Hultzen had at least something to do with the fact that he’s extremely likely to at least be a #3 starter in the bigs. But there aren’t many players like that. W/r/t Mercer, like I said, he could be Brian Bixler, which isn’t any sort of floor to speak of at all.
I can see the point about valuing major league return, but isn’t that what you do in the draft as well? The reason you’re okay with drafting some guys that bust is because of the 50 selections you make, your top priority is getting two or three guys who can be good starters at the ML level. That means taking the guys with the best tools and best profiles, even though a lot of them won’t make it. The obvious difference between that and prospect rankings is that you already have all these guys, so you don’t have to choose 50 from a pool of thousands. You just have to choose one for each spot, knowing that the others will still be there later. So I can see voting for the guy with the highest likelihood of being a major leaguer over the guy with the best MLB profile. That’s your prerogative. But I think the point of ranking is to force yourself into a drafting mentality. You need to choose: if I could only have one of these guys, which one would it be?
If you don’t like the drafting analogy, though, what about a trade? Would you trade a 25-year-old utility infielder for an 18-year-old SS right now? Would you trade an 18-year-old SS for a 25-year-old utility infielder? Do you think that analogy works?
A disagreement about floor
I think we probably do just disagree about Mercer’s potential. I guess I see Barmes as a good SS. Not great, and certainly not top tier, but one could do a lot worse. I can see Mercer as that. It is a good comparison.
And I think we mostly disagree about the floor. I don’t see Mercer being Bixler. Bixler never struck out less than 100 times as a Pirate prospect. Never (in full season ball). And that includes years where he was called up. He still managed to strike out 100 times in the minors while spending some time in the majors. Mercer has never struck out that much. Bixler’s total bases topped 200 only once, and trended down after High A. Mercer has done it twice now. And I do think Mercer has a better glove. I don’t know about their UZR, but Mercer has a better Fielding Percentage (at short and second). To me that means that Mercer will not be as overwhelmed as Bixler was at the plate in the majors.
by SojourningPirate on Jan 12, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
none of the above
If the Pirates selected Dodson — even present-day Dodson — with the #8 pick, it’d be an overdraft, wouldn’t it? Dodson isn’t a first-round talent, or even a second-round talent, I don’t think. He’s a guy you take a flier on. Hanson would also be an overdraft at 8, I think, though I’m less sure of that. And of course 25-year-olds with AAA experience aren’t available in the Rule 4 draft.
I also agree with SojourningPirate. In the draft, it’s a good philosophy to get a lot of high-upside lottery tickets (at least past the first round or so, when you might hope for all-around better players). But that doesn’t make any individual one of those lottery tickets better than a 25-year-old AAA player.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 12, 2012 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
W/r/t your first paragraph, yes, obviously. I’m saying if the pool of available players in the draft were the same as the pool available to us in this ranking, who would you take.
W/r/t your first paragraph: yes, but why is it better to have the “lottery tickets”? It’s because they are the ones who can become good starting MLB players. You can get the utility infielder for a couple million dollars in any given offseason (and even if you can’t, so what? no big deal, really, just get a 4A player or minor league free agent to fill the role, or select someone in the Rule 5), but you’ll have to pay through the nose for real MLB talent. That’s why you draft the talent. It only makes sense to value the same thing in a prospect ranking.
I do see what you guys are saying, though. I think the real issue is probably a disagreement about how talented Mercer is rather than about ranking philosophies. If I thought he had a decent chance of being an MLB starter or a 90% chance of being a solid utility player I might be voting for him somewhere around here. Gorkys Hernandez is similar in some ways, but I think he’s more talented than Mercer so I have him much higher.
Ohhhh Gorkys
I forgot about Grokys. Maybe you should put him up as the tester rather than Brock Holt.
by SojourningPirate on Jan 12, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions
It's looking more and more
like I’m going to be stuck voting for Wilson for a while. Maybe I’m overvaluing those couple of reports that had him at 99 mph but that’s ultimately why I have to put him ahead of some of the other guys on the list. There are not many LHP that can throw 99 and if Wilson is really one of them (at least when he is used out of the pen) then I think that has value.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 12, 2012 12:29 PM EST reply actions
But the value is greatly diminished...
…if he can’t find the plate. even if he can throw 99 MPH. Wilson’s an intriguing guy, but he’s not going to amount to a hill of beans, if he maintain that 4.5 BB/9 he has, for his minor league career.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 12, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
I think you are overvaluing the velo, personally. There are a lot of things to dislike about Wilson – no changeup, poor command, average secondary stuff. The velo is nice (if true), but he doesn’t have enough other stuff going on to profile as more than a middle reliever. If you want a near-MLB-ready reliever, I think Morris is the way to go. He’s a righty and can’t touch 99, but he throws in the mid 90s as a reliever and his fastball has wicked movement. He also has a hammer curve that consistently gets plus grades and a slider that grades as plus at times too. He has command and consistency problems and his health is a concern, but he profiles much better than Wilson.
I might be overvaluing it
but the way I’m looking at it, we’re down to the 17th prospect in the system, so you’re not going to find a guy without warts. Wilson clearly has them (control, lack of a change etc) but I’m hanging my hat on that one skill over what I think I’m getting with guys like Dodson at the point. If there were another guy in the system I was really high on, I’d have no problem holding off on Wilson but at 17? I feel like it’s an OK gamble.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 13, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
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