The Under-Represented Middle Class Of Free Agent Starting Pitchers
I was actually thinking about writing about this, but Kevin beat me to it. A couple months ago, WTM wrote a couple posts outlining the typical market values of mid-rotation starters. This year, the market looks remarkably different. Just last offseason, Jake Westbrook got two years and $16.5 million from the Cardinals; after the 2009 season, Randy Wolf got three years and $29.75 million from the Brewers. This year, Paul Maholm, a younger but otherwise relatively similar pitcher in terms of overall value, got one year and $4.25 million. And a lot of other pitchers in his free-agent bracket have been fairly cheap as well.
The Bucs took advantage of this trend by signing Erik Bedard cheaply, but I'd love for them to continue to push that advantage by signing someone like Jeff Francis, who at this point shouldn't cost much.
5 months ago
Charlie Wilmoth
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The middle is definitely getting squeezed. It’s probably the reason Edwin Jackson hasn’t signed — he’s not getting the offers comparable pitchers were getting, and Boras isn’t going to settle for a lower market. I think it impacted Barmes and maybe Barajas, too, although Barajas’ age may have had more to do with the Pirates being able to sign him. Barmes, for instance, seems like a better bet than Jack Wilson did when Seattle signed him for 2/$10M, especially when you take Jack’s chronic injury problems and this year’s terrible SS pool into account, but Barmes got almost exactly the same deal. (Of course, you could argue that it was just an idiotic move by the M’s, but maybe they didn’t want to “lowball” Jack.)
It could be what’s happening is just an inevitable market correction. Partly, teams are probably wary of the economy and very reluctant to commit to long-term contracts. (For instance, somebody, may have been MLBTR, had an article about how few relievers are getting multiyear deals compared to last year.) And partly teams may be coming to the conclusion that contracts like the one the Angels gave Pujols may directly pay for themselves, but a contract for a non-elite veteran won’t. The squeeze on the middle may just be a sign of increasing analytical capability in FOs around MLB, enhanced by the departure of fossils like Hendry and Wade.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
"The squeeze on the middle may just be a sign of increasing analytical capability in FOs around MLB ..."
So – “internal valuation” FTW!
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 12, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Seems like a good time to do more than kick the tires
Lets hope the market hits allstar centerfielders and they can be had on the cheap instead of the sign before arb crisis starts. But now wouldnt be a bad time to put together a winner. Waiting for cole and taillon would also not be the worst idea but it coulf be like having cliff lee and felix hernandez on your squad and still being terrible
by tbote123 on Jan 12, 2012 12:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That is one of the biggest exaggerations I’ve ever read on this site. Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez? That’s extremely optimistic.
his point is still valid though
Lee and Hernandez are arguably the absolute upside of what we could hope for, and we’ve seen at least one team unable to succeed with both of them present together.
Yes but if I were
Actually predicting what I expect from jt and gc it would be clemens on steroids and a hybrid of babe ruth and satchel page
by tbote123 on Jan 13, 2012 8:26 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
this sort of might happen with 1B too
After Fielder signs – what about Kotchman Lee and Pena? Not much comp and need out there. Pirates should take advantage with nice contract
Does this article support the notion that an aggressive Pirates FO could take a huge leap forward?
There have already been arguments posted that the sagging talent level of AL Central teams makes 2012 ripe for a Pirates rebound… wouldn’t this article strongly support that? A weak division coupled with a depressed FA market… this seems like the prefect recipe for a non-contender to load up and make a run.
I’m not expecting it, but are external circumstances ever going to be better?
if the pirates wouldnt have to overpay, i say yes
we may all argue about the worth of certain pitchers, but we all agree that the FO needs to get one more starting pitcher.
by white angus on Jan 12, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't This the FO Strategy?
So the FO approach for 1B and a SP is to wait until the FAs realize they can’t get a Pujos type contract and the agressively pursue them? This looks to me like what the Bucs FO is doing.
It sounds like a good strategy to me as long as you are keeping in touch with guys you want and letting you know they can sign with you anytime for this amount.
this should be our strategy
and should also remain our strategy with trading with Angels and Padres for surplus 1B. They can’t go into the season with all the dudes they have. pennies to the dollar
Could be NH's Moneyball...
Let’s look at Edwin Jackson:
Assuming he’s normally out of our price range, but the market is depressed for pitchers at his level. If he’s getting offers that are all below market value, and the Pirates significantly overpay to get him here, we actually come out on top. Perhaps for even less than what we would have thought his value to be.
It’s being said that Edwin wants around $12 mill a year for 5 years. That’s not happening, though one could make the case he may be worth that. If most teams are only willing to go 3 years – 36 million, maybe the Pirates go 4 years – 50 with a team option on the 5th year.
It's the 2nd Wild Card, Stupid
No, I’m not calling you stupid.
Granted, a final decision to add a second Wild Card has yet to be made. Under the terms of the new CBA, that decision will come no later than March 1. But all signs suggest the decision’s already been made — if not announced — and that we’ll see two Wild Cards in each league this season.
That changes the calculus for the competitive teams.
I think this would affect pitching more than hitting. Perhaps a lower-revenue team could take advantage with a whole Josh Fogg Theory™ rotation, while “contenders” are going stars and scrubs. I think the Yankees are already onto this. Also furthers the buy the hitters, grow the pitchers mindset.
I don't buy this
As someone pointed out in the comments, it makes each wild card half as valuable (or possibly even less so, since you have to burn your best starter for the one-game playoff). If anything, it should lead to a renewed arms race in the AL East.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 12, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
Am I the only person on this site that likes the term Internal Valuation?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 12, 2012 7:11 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Yeah, exactly
It’s unclear whether NH uses the term as an excuse (the way a useless manager will cite “company policy” to explain a refusal to help a customer) or simply doesn’t do a good enough job doing them.
That said, in the last 2-3 years, Matt Capps is the only clear failure of Internal Valuation, in which a player would have produced lots of excess value, but NH let him walk claiming that his salary wouldn’t have matched Internal Valuation. Maholm may be in terms of production, but certainly won’t be in terms of salary.
i m not even convinced Capps was a failure of salary valuation
obv he did post a bounceback season and netted a big haul, and as many here know, I’ve argued long and hard in favour of keeping Capps purely because players like him need to have a short amount of success to net something useful, but given what he did with the Twins last year, it seems close.
I like
internally valuating the ladies, if you knowwhatImean.
i suppose this is only tangentially related
but the Giants have signed Vogelsong to a guaranteed 2 year/8.3M deal, with a 6.5M option for a 3rd year.
I'm happy for Vogelsong.
He was a big disappointment his first go-round in the majors, had major injuries, put in a lot of time and hard work in Japan, and now it has finally paid off.
I’d like to see the same for Bullington down the road.
"The Bucs took advantage of this trend by signing Erik Bedard cheaply..."
if Bedard were as reliable as Maholm the last few seasons, theres no way we get Bedard on the cheap. Bedard’s only two faults are that hes brittle and kinda dewshy, but only one of those really matters for a new contract. Maholm has been 99% healthy since he broke in the bigs.
Bedard has dominated the opposition in the past while Maholm has been, looking for a kind word, steady. For the most part, Maholm has been hittable. He should be compared to the Francis’, the Chen’s, etc… I’m still amazed that a Randy Wolf can get a big contract.
So basically its this: Bedard, if healthy-ish the last few seasons, would not be available for $4.5MM today.
I wish we had both Bedard and Maholm for next year.
But there are still some decent SP options out there. We need to get more.
"assalamualaikum"
Sounds like a native casino in NE.
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