Community Prospect #19
by epoc on Jan 13, 2012 6:46 PM EST
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PrintZack Dodson grabs the #18 spot with 29% of the vote. Justin Wilson placed second with 17%. Here's the list:
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Starling Marte
4. Josh Bell
5. Luis Heredia
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Stetson Allie
10. Nick Kingham
11. Rudy Owens
12. Jeff Locke
13. Jarek Cunningham
14. Alex Dickerson
15. Zack Von Rosenberg
16. Colton Cain
17. Jordy Mercer
18. Zack Dodson
I'm adding Matt Hague to the poll, since he got a vote as a write-in last time, and dropping Gorkys for now. These polls tend not to get a lot of action over the weekends, so I think I'm going to leave this one up until noon or so on Monday.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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+1
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 13, 2012 10:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+1
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
+1
"So you think 25 percent of the country is retarded?! Yea. Atleast 25 percent. Well lets do a sample. There are 4 of us an you're retarded. Thats 25 percent." Southpark; Mystery of the Urinal Deuce
RIP Corey Keller, James Taylor, M. Jay Darby, Derek Davis.
by gorillakilla34 on Jan 14, 2012 5:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Exicardo Cayonez
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 13, 2012 11:24 PM EST up reply actions
YAMAICO NAVARRO
+1
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
If Navarro is eligible I'd vote for him instead.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
good point
We may need a ruling from the chair on this — if we go by Rookie of the Year eligibility, I think he just scrapes under the limit for at-bats, but probably not for days in the majors; or does that depend on whether he was called up after Sept. 1?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
We discussed this a few threads back. Navarro isn’t ROY eligible because of service time on the 25-man, but I’m pretty sure he’s still prospect-eligible according to BA’s rules because he hasn’t had 130 AB yet. The sense I got from people was that he should be eligible here, so he is eligible for our list.
OK, someone talk me into something
Holmes: poor man’s Allie?
Morris: a bullpen guy, but a good one?
Wilson: any chance he starts?
Fryer: an up-the-middle guy who might contribute a bit soonish? can he catch?
Holt: a shortstop who’s kind of OK, maybe?
Hanson: far away?
Discuss.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 13, 2012 8:33 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn’t call Holmes a poor man’s Allie. More like a ZVR, or right handed Colton Cain except that the Pirates actually have a deep farm system instead of after the 2009 draft.
Wilson is left handed and has a fastball that has great velocity and movement. Probably a reliever.
Morris is a former 1st round pick and potential pitcher at the end of the bullpen.
Pick your poison.
Hanson seems to far off and I would simply take the aforementioned three players ahead of Holt or Fryer
by Cainyoudigit on Jan 13, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think if you want a guy who’s going to contribute, it should be either Navarro, Morris, or Hernandez here. Morris is going to be a major league reliever of some sort, and he’s got the stuff to be a closer even. Hernandez is going to be a fifth outfielder and if he can shorten his swing some he might even be able to start. Navarro’s already a major leaguer, and he might be the only AAA guy left who has a better than nominal chance to be an everyday player. I don’t think Wilson can start, and I don’t think he has the command or the secondary stuff to be a late-inning guy. Fryer’s not good enough on either side of the ball to really contribute (though as a third-string catcher he might be useful for the next few years). Holt is not a SS.
If you want upside, I think Hanson’s the guy, though you could make arguments for a dozen upside guys at this point, depending on whose tools you like.
Hanson is not any farther away than Holmes, by the way. It’s not like the GCL is worse than HS ball (though it’s not a whole lot better).
Navarro and Morris are next on my list after Hanson, FWIW. Morris is also the top guy on both Sickels’ and Goldstein’s lists who hasn’t been elected by us yet. We’re underrating Holmes and Wilson in comparison to Sickels and Goldstein too. Goldstein had Hanson at #17, so we’re underrating him according to KG as well.
I don’t want to pigeonhole myself as a guy who wants someone who’s going to contribute — I think it’s one factor among many, and I had Mercer basically tied with the ZVR/Dodson/Cain group. (Or rather, impossible to compare with them.) But in this case I think I’m going to go with Navarro, at least to get his name in there, and because as you said he does have some chance to be an everyday major leaguer or at least a super-utility guy. I don’t really have the knowledge base to distinguish the dozen upside guys.
Don’t really believe in Gorkys as more than a backup, though maybe there’s an adjustment out there for him. But I hope he makes it so Berman can nickname him Gorkys “Zygotic Minci” Hernandez.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
whoops, Mynci
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Holt's case
Brock Holt is probably going to be a 2B, but is going to be a guy who can hit. He has a career .303 AVG with a good walk rate and not too bad a strike out rate. He has the speed to be a lead off guy as well. He has been moved aggressively through the farm system and seems to have handled it well. His metrics stand up to anyone else on this list. At second he is a good fielder. His power numbers are a bit low, but he was asked to leadoff, so I think that needs to be taken into account. He hit 9 triples. And remember everything he did this year was coming off a MCL tear. So, it is a pretty good bounce back year.
But here is the real point. Holmes and Hanson are very far away. Hard to tell how they pan out, or if they pan out. Fryer is a catcher with bad defense and no real power, plus he is older than Holt. Morris is only a bullpen guy now, and take out one good year, and he looks like a bust. Wilson is only going to be a bullpen guy, but he is going to contribute, so maybe a toss up with him.
Holt has produced at every level. Moved up faster than expected. I think he can be a contributor in the future for the Pirates. There’s Holt’s case.
by SojourningPirate on Jan 14, 2012 1:39 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t like Holt this much. He makes contact, but other than that I don’t see any tools to be excited about. His bat speed is mediocre. His foot speed is above-average but nothing special. His range is mediocre. His arm is weak. His power is nonexistent. He’s not particularly patient at the plate.
The worst part is that he doesn’t have a major league profile. He doesn’t have a starting-caliber bat and he doesn’t have utility-infielder versatility. He can’t play 3B or SS, so he needs to hit enough to start at 2B, and with no power and so-so on-base skills it’s going to be tough. I don’t see an easy path to the majors for him.
It’s not like he’s particularly close to the majors, either. With other low-upside guys like Mercer or Fryer or Wilson at least you can say that they’re so close that they’re extremely likely to make some kind of contribution, but Holt’s never played above AA and didn’t exactly set the world on fire there. I wouldn’t concede that Holt is more likely to pan out than Hanson or Holmes, honestly.
The big big big question, for me, after seeing people voting for Mercer and Holt, is why not Yamaico Navarro? Navarro has way more talent than either of them and has already played in the major leagues. He’s only seven months older than Holt and has already hit better in AAA than Holt did in AA. He’s over a year younger than Mercer.
The reason I don't write off Holt...
is the injury and the idea that he might not have been firing on all cylinders last season. My opinion could slide dramatically depending on his first 3 months in 2012.
by tobynotjason on Jan 14, 2012 3:17 AM EST up reply actions
It’s worth noting that Holt had essentially the same season in 2011 that he had in 2010 except with a worse BAbip.
Fully aware of that.
It’s a skill for hitters at all levels, particularly in the minors, so we’ll see how it goes. Chances are 2010 was a fluke, admittedly.
by tobynotjason on Jan 15, 2012 5:29 PM EST up reply actions
The value of AA
I am not sure Holt is going to contribute much either. But, after about the first 15 prospects, I am not sure any of the Pirate guys are going to contribute much. I do think Wilson is going to make it, but bullpen guys are a dime a dozen, so I don’t rank them very high.
I think it is just too early for me to say about Hanson and Holmes and some of those other young guys. AA is where the men are separated from the boys, and Holt did a decent job there this year. Eastern League All Star where he won the MVP. I have no problem admitting that those guys have a higher upside, but it is too hard for me to tell how close to the upside they will get and where their floor might really be.
I will take another look at Navarro since I know he is eligible now.
by SojourningPirate on Jan 14, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
why in the he!!
Is no one talking about Jose Osuna?
Even by GCL standards he put up some pretty good stats.
by BadAndy on Jan 13, 2012 9:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Osuna
Although he didn’t impress when I saw him, all the reports I’ve read have been very positive. I do think it’s weird he’s not getting more love relative to guys like Cabrera, Hague, Curry, Wilson, and Holmes.
i agree with this
i was tempted by Cabrera, because I think a guy who can spray line drives while being a good defensive catcher will be valuable, but his physical stature may limit him as he moves up, plus there’s the issue of his defense not being great (reportedly).
hard throwing lhp
who competes and wins and only 24… if voting by potential future impact on the ML club you gotta go with Justin Wilson here. Hanson and Osuna are close but too young to really get a bead on. i believe Holt will impact as a utility player at some point as well.
by patient pirate on Jan 13, 2012 10:50 PM EST reply actions
Ive given up
in my quest to get Morris and Wilson in the top 20. Oh what a year can do
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
i think
Morris’s value has dropped because he is definitely a reliever at this point so his impact at the ML level doesnt seem to be real high especially because he hasnt really closed much. Wilson , although, made a reliever last year, can still be used a starter. i guess it a good thing that these guys have dropped so much because it means we’ve gotten way better in the last few years with regards to talent
by patient pirate on Jan 13, 2012 11:52 PM EST up reply actions
true
talent in the system has improved but damn would i like to see some more impact position players on the list, maybe after this next draft, who knows
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
develop pitching - buy the hitting?
sound philosophy but nice to have a good core of young hitters to build around.. Tabata, Cutch, Walker, Marte, Grossman, Bell, Dickerson, Alvarez, Sanchez could be really good for a while though…or really so-so
by patient pirate on Jan 14, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Wilson
People keep saying that Wilson can start, but I’ve yet to hear any of his supporters explain how he’s going to be an MLB starter as a LHP with no changeup and poor command. He doesn’t have a plus breaking ball to lean on either. And it’s not like he’s even performed all that well as a starter in the minors: he had a great 2010 in AA, but 2009 and 2011 were thoroughly mediocre. What am I missing here?
i just like that he is lefty with heat, is near the majors, and strikes people out. the downside is what you list.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
As a starter, he doesn’t exactly have heat. He sits 88-92, which is fine but he’s not going to blow anyone away. His K rate isn’t really that good, either. He struck out 16.9% of batters in AAA last year (according to minorleaugecentral.com), while the average rate in the IL was 19.7%. And check out his splits. It’s exactly what you’d expect from a lefty with no changeup: RHH with a 23% LD rate and over a hit an inning against him.
There’s definitely some potential if he’s sitting in the upper 90s out of the bullpen, but the lack of a plus off-speed pitch and the terrible command limit him even there.
where did you get that he sits 88-92 as a starter? he was 91-94 in altoona in the 4-5 starts i saw. i assume you’re right (your knowledge is quite vast) but on the altoona scoreboard he was 90-92 95% of the times i looked. and 92 was as common as 90 as far as i remember (obviously taking into account the radar readings at -2 there)
PP says 87-93. I can’t find my copy of Sickels’s 2011 book, but I’m pretty sure he said 88-92. He was mostly 88-90 according to the tv guns the few times I watched him pitch for Indy last year.
Given your experience at Altoona and the mysterious 90-93 MPH fastball Owens supposedly had there last year, I would take the radar readings at BCBP with a huge grain of salt.
thanks
“I would take the radar readings at BCBP with a huge grain of salt”
that’s frustrating
it’s been a bit too long to remember with certain accuracy but i would have placed owens at 89-91. morris and wilson were the only ones cracking 90 (92) there with any kind of regularity.
While I think Wilson
has the stamina to start, I don’t think he will start. I’ve been trying to get him in for the past few spots because I’m hoping that he can use that FB that tops out at 99 to be a good LOOGY for the Bucs. Some might think it’s depressing to have a LOOGY in the team’s top 20 but anybody who watched Rzepczynski pitch for the Cards last fall should know that a good LOOGY is quite valuable.
Ultimately, I’m trying (and so far failing) to get Wilson in because while his value as a LOOGY is probably much lower than anybody who winds up as a good #3-4 starter or a solid 1B or cOF, I think his proximity to the majors and unteachable velocity makes him more likely to reach this goal than the other guys on the list to live up to their admittedly higher ceilings. Wilson’s MiLB K numbers have been OK but not great (7.6 K/9) but that’s with him throwing a FB 5-7 MPH slower than he does as a reliever. His control, while not elite, is certainly not crippling either for a reliever (4.5 BB/9). He is definitely not a finished product, but I think he is capable of being a valuable player for the Bucs at the ML level.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 15, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
pretty crazy that we're putting up a 2011 9th rounder into the top 20
considering hes a project at this point. Wes Freeman is a project but has tools, same with Jared Lakind.. this kid has to show me something in pro ball first. i’d list Osuna before Holmes based off age and performance.
by patient pirate on Jan 14, 2012 12:02 AM EST reply actions
Well
Just cause you sentence is somewhat misleading (although I get the basic premise) I’d be remiss if I didn’t point out that #9 pick got the 3rd most out of any of our players bonus-wise, and more than several picks in the first supplemental round.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 14, 2012 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
signing bonus just too big to ignore. Comparable $ to #15 prospect ZVR, who had a pedestrian rookie season.
by bucket of jim bibby sweat on Jan 15, 2012 6:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
Although this was his second full season (ZVR’s).
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 16, 2012 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
Yamaico Navarro
has to rate ahead of Holt and Mercer. Take a look at this home run. The guy has quick hands and loft to his swing. His numbers haven’t been good at SS but at worst he looks like an above average utility player who still has a chance to hold down a position.
www.drstrangeglove.com
Navarro's my next pick, if/when Holmes wins a poll.
I’m unconvinced that Morris will ever be any more valuable or irreplaceable than a guy like Resop. Similarly, I like Holt’s glove and ability to play other infield positions better than some others, but again, is it all that likely he ever becomes anything more than Josh Harrison?
I do prefer Mercer over Navarro, though; I’m truly convinced that he has a very good chance to become Clint Barmes, and a nonzero chance of becoming something a bit better.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
that looks like a nice prospect list at Dr. Strangeglove
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 14, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
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