Pirates Should Still Be Hunting For Starting Pitcher
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 2, 2012 11:02 AM EST
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David Cameron looks at the value of starting pitchers signed to one-year contracts last offseason. The gist of it is that these players provided very, very good value (and, obviously, at very little risk). Guys like Erik Bedard, Brandon McCarthy and Bartolo Colon were big successes. There are still several candidates for one-year deals left on this year's market, so the Pirates should be looking for ways to avoid going into Spring Training with Kevin Correia still penciled into their rotation.
The Bedard-for-Paul-Maholm swap looks smart so far, but the Pirates can't just finish their work there if they really want to be better than they were in 2011 (at WTM has said at last a couple times). The back of the rotation is still a mess, and a team that's serious about winning shouldn't head into a new season with a pitcher as bad as Correia in the fifth starter spot. This is particularly true given that Bedard and Charlie Morton have serious injury issues.
Speaking of Correia:
When you hear about big market teams shying away from higher profile pitchers to scrape the bottom of the barrel for their back-end starters, realize that they’re not being penny wise and pound foolish, but they understand that there’s often not a lot of difference between the results you can get from a reclamation project versus a "proven veteran" that wants a multi-year deal.
Guess who he's talking about?
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If Correia is our 5th starter
we be in big trouble. My fear is they stick with him for half a season and then go internally. However, it is the new year so I will have faith and keep wishing for Edwin Jackson.
Cost of Edwin Jackson
Jackson’s become a popular name again. The big boys need SP help and they’re rumored to be looking at him, which I think drives his price up more. 3 years/$33 million? I’d say pass.
id try and get him at like 3 years/$24 m
by FusilliJerry88 on Jan 2, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
Jackson made $8.75 million last year
He’s been traded a billion times, but he’s been pretty good overall everywhere he’s gone. I can’t imagine him signing anything, especially a multi-year deal, for less than $10 million/year.
Jackson
His asking price is 5 yrs/$60 million. Tim Dierkes from mlbtraderumors expects something more like 4 yrs/$44 million.
That’s what you need to be looking at.
I'd take that in a heartbeat
The guy is only just now 28 (Sept. B-day). He’s been worth 11+ wins the last 3 years. It seems to me extremely likely that his age 28, 29, 30, and 31 seasons will provide 9+ wins, which would make for good value. If he’s even 80% as good as he’s been, then there’s plenty of surplus value.
Furthermore, wrt the Pirates’ overall payroll, $11M per doesn’t harm them at all. Yes, it’s nearly 20% of payroll in one guy, but he’s not being signed to be a linchpin, either – he’s there to provide 2-4 marginal wins per year (at ~200 IP), but we don’t fall out of playoff contention in ‘13 or ’14 if he’s hurt, nor does he push us to the ceiling of what Nutting can (should be able to) afford.
I would be tempted at 5/$60M too, but I’d want some sort of favorable terms, whether it’s a cheap team option or no no-trade clause, or something else (deferred salary?). I do realize that, at some point, the current group of players will become more expensive through arb, but what having Jackson under contract does for you is that it permits you to walk away from (frex) McDonald rather than feel like you need his ceiling, even as his short starts and inconsistency drive you nuts.
Also, I’d like Nutting to buy me a pony.
I want a Pony too...
You hit the nail on the head. Jackson is underrated and his stuff actually gives him more upside than 11 wins in three years. If we spend 4/44 I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he produces 15 WAR over the course of his contract. It’s less likely than more but I wouldn’t be shocked.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 3, 2012 12:50 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Maholm and Francis are certainly not sexy names
Who’s still out there that you advocate Pittsburgh signing? I like Maholm at $5-6ish million, Oswalt around $10 million, and I think Kuo will end up being a steal for someone (hopefully Pittsburgh, around $1.5 million) if all of them end up being one-year deal guys. Jeff Francis was statistically solid last year (183 IP for 1.4 bWAR) and I would love him at $2 million/year, but I have no barometer for what he’s going to cost in this market. 1 year, $5 million? 2/$12? Nothing between $3-$8 million per year and between 1-3 years would surprise me.
in this order
1. Edwin Jackson (fine with giving him 2-3 year deal)
2. Paul Maholm (fine with giving him 2-3 year deal)
3. Jeff Francis (if only a 1 year deal)
4. Roy Oswalt (if only a 1 year deal)
5. Joe Saunders (if only a 1 year deal)
regardless
There’s no reason we should’nt be able to sign one of these guys. There’s no reason we shoud be content going into the season with the rotation we have.
by FusilliJerry88 on Jan 2, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
I'd like to see any of those guys in the Pirates rotation
But they’re all going to be kind of pricey (less so Francis and Maholm).
Price tags of those guys:
1. Edwin Jackson – $10-$12 million/year
2. Paul Maholm – $5-$7 million/year
3. Jeff Francis – $3-$8 million/year (I admittedly have no idea)
4. Roy Oswalt – $10ish million/year
5. Joe Saunders – $7-$9 million/year
With Pittsburgh handing out it’s first $10+ million FA contract (to a someone who wasn’t already a Pirate) to Clint Freaking Barmes, I have little faith that the FO would be willing to spend the money it would take for Jackson or Oswalt. I think it’s most likely that they resign Maholm to a 1 year deal for ~$6 million or Jeff Francis for a year or two at ~$5 million/year, with the possibility of one year/$6-$7 million for Joe Saunders (with the intent to deal him at the deadline).
I seem to be in the minority on this one
but if he is healthy and his fastball velocity is back to normal I want to see them go after Wei-Yin Chen. They aren’t going to get Oswalt because he will be too expensive. Joe Saunders is an innings eater but that’s about it. I’m not convinced Francis would be an upgrade over Correia except that he throws lefthanded. Edwin Jackson is looking for a massive and a longterm deal. Even if he doesn’t get it and might be somewhat affordable, I’m not sure that he’s better than Maholm. While he is more talented, his command problems have kept him from reaching his potential. Go ahead and look at Jackson’s numbers since 2007 (bb-ref will let you total them up by clicking on the years if you didn’t know) and compare them to Maholm’s totals since ‘07. They are almost identical. I don’t want to overpay for a guy because Scott Boras has artificially inflated his value. If Chen’s health doesn’t check out then Maholm becomes my #1 target but right now he’s just a contingency plan.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 2, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Maholm
Let’s face it, Maholm is not getting a lot of interest and he has made it clear that he would like to be back in Pittsburgh. Why not offer him up a 2 year/8 Mill deal with incentives to take it to 10 or whatever. He’s been a healthy guy and can fill the 4th or 5th spot and then Lincoln continues to be insurance. And, with a team friendly deal like that, you can always trade Maholm at anytime this year or next year as long as he is doing well and the team feels they can part with him. I’m not really a big fan of Paulie, but you do know what you are likely to get from him and it would be a sensible deal.
If Maholm
Take a deal like that, I’d say go for it. The opening day rotation would be Bedard, J-Mac, Maholm, Karstens, Lincoln with Morton on the DL (he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season). Correia could serve as the long reliever so the team wouldn’t completely have to eat his contract and he could be effective enough in that role. When Charlie is healthy he replaces either Lincoln or Karstens (who I have serious doubts about repeating his 2011 success).
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 2, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Using Fangraphs WAR, which I prefer, I see 14 wins for Jackson in that timespan compared to 11.8 for Paul. But with 3.8 each of the last two years for Jackson, and 2.0 and 2.1 for Maholm.
by thecheeseisblue on Jan 2, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
There's nothing wrong with Fangraphs
But that doesn’t change the fact that the two guys have been strikingly similar since 2007. In that time, Maholm has a 4.38 ERA, a 1.401 WHIP, and a 1.98 K:BB ratio over 926.1 innings. Over the same stretch, Jackson has a 4.34 ERA, a 1.456 WHIP, and a 1.94 K:BB ratio over 967.1 innings. Jackson has been the better pitcher over the past 3 years but if you’re talking about potentially signing a guy to a 4 or 5 year deal, I’d want to make sure he’s worth it.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 2, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder if Fangraphs underrates Maholm a little. Soft-tossing lefties (e.g. Zito or Moyer) tend to allow fewer hits on balls in play, something that FIP (and thus fWAR) doesn’t account for. Now Maholm’s career BABIP is actually a little higher than average at .310, but he’s also had really crummy defense behind him for most of that time. His big difference in his game last year was a drop in BABIP from .327 in 2010 to .286. People often chalk up that sort of thing up to luck, but I’m wondering if having an increasingly competent set of fielders behind him helped give Maholm an ERA more in line with what he should have had all along.
by Monkeyking42 on Jan 3, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
or maybe because Maholm pitched differently in 2011 than he did before?
which is what i noticed early on in the season
Fangraphs doesn’t use ERA in their WAR calculations. They use FIP, so it’s Paul’s peripherals that hurt him, not the defense.
by thecheeseisblue on Jan 3, 2012 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
Right, what I’m saying is that FIP assumes a static .300ish BABIP, and thus doesn’t work for all pitchers. Zito’s career BABIP is .268, Moyer’s is .282. Soft-tossing lefties as a rule allow fewer hits on balls in play, something not accounted for by FIP, so their true talent level is better than what their FIP or fWAR indicates. One might expect the same from Maholm, but he’s never been able to achieve it before 2011 (career BABIP .310). I’m postulating that this could be due to the shitty defense behind him. It also could be that he changed his pitching style in 2011 or that he simply isn’t one of those pitchers capable of inducing more outs on balls in play even though he resembles some who do. I don’t really know, I’m just throwing it out there.
by Monkeyking42 on Jan 3, 2012 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
Super-agree
The players are out there, even if they’re not sexy. We can do better than Correia, and we can afford to do so.
Thing about Correia is that he’s a pretty good guy to have as an insurance policy (compare him to Bass or Burres), which makes adding a speculative 5th SP more attractive. I’d hate to need Bedard to throw 200 innings, but with Correia in hand, we at least know that Bedard’s missed starts aren’t going to a Dana Eveland.
Bill James 2012 projections:
Correia – 4.29 ERA
Maholm – 4.22
also their xFIP were similar last year
My vote is for Oswalt on a 1 year deal, which probably won’t happen, so just stick with Lincoln & a couple interesting NRI’s as depth
I was going to say the same about Lincoln
maybe its time we gave him the chance or really looking down a starting job rather than injury replacement guy. It helps to have better depth in case of injuries, but unless were getting a much better quality pitcher (Jackson, Oswalt) lets just go with what we got here.
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
LOL
scratch Jackson, now I know why he has yet to sign
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/01/boras-seeks-five-years-for-edwin-jackson.html
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Holy crap that's a lot of money
And does it sound like teams are colluding in keeping the Yankees from acquiring another starter? They sound like the salesmen at a car dealership when they see a guy pull up in a Maserati.
Keep in mind, the phrases “Boras seeks” and “planet Earth” are mutually exclusive.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 2, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
lets be honest about Lincoln
hes not exactly stood out in his chances at the major league level. you could even say the same thing about his minor league performances
Probably still better than Correia, though
No one (at this point) expects the guy to reach his #3 starter projection, but he could be a good #5 or a cheap #4.
i dunno bout dat, yoh!
lincoln’s ceiling, IMHO, is correia
i say, go with correia instead of lincoln, hope he has a good first half like last season, and deal him if the team is out of contention
That's silly
Arguably, Lincoln already is at Correia level – similar ERA, similar K/BB, better HR/9, and at 5 years younger.
That said, I take your point about playing Correia early in hopes of getting some return. But I’m not convinced he’d fool anyone at this point – the pattern is pretty clear. After 2 years of ERAs above 4.75, I’m not sure anyone’s giving up value just because he has 2-3 months with an ERA under 4.
same things were probably said a couple months before his allstar appearance
right now you cant compare lincoln to correia because lincoln hasnt done anything.
this team needs another FA starting pitcher. the rotation should be the new FA, bedard, karstens, mcdonald and morton, with correia there if morton isnt ready.
i have no problem with lincoln being in Indy waiting in the wings. in fact, i would rather give owens, locke or mcpherson a real shot before Brad. i have no faith in his pitching at all.
That Lincoln is only five years younger than Correia seems extremely depressing to me. Although I suppose it’s not either of their faults that Correia is incredibly grizzled-looking for his age.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 2, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
Actually
Correia is a bit older than I thought (I follow on radio, so I couldn’t pick him out of a police lineup).
But it’s now or never for Lincoln. I hope Morton comes back soon (and healthy), but I also hope Lincoln gets a solid 5-8 starts to show he deserves to stay in the rotation.
Not to mention that Lincoln is also worth an extra quarter win or so with the bat over Correia.
Every little bit helps, n’at.
http://bleedblackandgold.com/
by Say Hey Johnny Ray on Jan 3, 2012 1:38 PM EST up reply actions
Also
what about Millwood or Chris Young? Thought on either of those guys, I always like Young’s upside
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Millwood
I like Millwood. He seems like a league-average innings-eater… basically an older Joe Saunders. Any idea what he’ll cost? I can’t find what he made in Colorado last year, and he made a buttload of money ($12 million) in 2010.
Millwood didn’t get signed for a long time last season, then kicked around in the minor leagues for several teams before playing with Colorado. So I can’t imagine he made that much.
by thecheeseisblue on Jan 3, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
The more I think about Correia’s contract, the more I dislike it. And I never did like it.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
Agreed
But isn’t this kind of new territory with the number of pitchers who are signing 1 or 2 year deals on the cheap? I really don’t recall this happening a lot before the last couple of years. It’s not a good contract, but it’s not Matt Morris either.
defending Correia
look, i agree with what Tim at Pirates Prospects wrote and this write up to an extent, but CORREIA ISNT THAT BAD. it’s kinda driving me nuts. ok, if your 5th starter gave you a FIPs of 4.09, 4.11, 4.48, and 4.60 from April thru Jul (that was in order month by month), wouldn’t you be ok with that? that was Kevin Correia before his arm fell off in July. he definitely was a different pitcher the first three months of the season, i expect he’ll be back to that level to begin this year as well.
I’m all for siging edwin jackson to a reasonable contract but if we’re going to add another SP it needs to be a CLEAR UPGRADE over Correia. I think we have more of a glaring need at 1B than adding someone like Jeff Francis. Brad Lincoln is also probably better than Correia and is an in house option.
There aren’t many clear upgrades over Correia on the market that are desirable IMO
The problem with analyzing a guy like Correia as a 5th starter is that, outside of Bedard if he’s healthy, the Pirates don’t have a #1, #2, or possibly even #3. Morton and McDonald at least have the potential to be maybe #3 types, but when you lack legit top-of-the-rotation pitching, you can’t just accept a guy who’s clearly a #5 at best. You need to have five guys who have more potential than that.
I also have a problem with ignoring Correia’s August collapse. It’s not like it was the first time he was deluged by gopher balls. He had major gopher ball issues in Petco, which is one of the worst power-hitting parks in MLB. And I question whether xFIP is a good measure for a guy with a habit of allowing titanic longballs in bunches. Correia’s FIP the last two years is 4.71 and 4.85. I think that’s a better indicator with him.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 2, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
i hear you
i guess i’m just not sold on this being the year for the Bucs though and wasting on a mostly lateral move seems silly to me. I think we stay the course ONE MORE YEAR and next year we start making those big upgrade moves. I realize the division is wide open but we still have all the core next year and then i believe our other core of prospects will be ready to contribute.
I’d legitimately love to sign Edwin Jackson to a multi-year deal. My main argument was against making a SLIGHT upgrade or lateral move over Correia because the dude is making 4 mil no matter what and i dont know if it’s going to make a difference in the win column. If not E-Jax, who would you actually want to sign that you’d think would be a smart move Wilbur? Maholm at 5-6 million also to me is a no brainer because would provide definitive upgrade.
I dont want to discount his august collapse entirely but i mean, I WATCHED him pitch probably all of his starts this year. He lost mph on his fastball, he lost control, he lost his effectiveness entirely. I’m not surprised that his numbers were much better early, because so were his pitches?
I’d be fine with signing Jackson.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 2, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
minor point
The splits Mingy was quoting were FIP, not xFIP. I hear your point about how we can’t ignore August, but his homer/FIP problems came in his titanic 8.44 FIP August.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 2, 2012 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
ugh fine
his xFIP was actually BETTER so it was 4.52 4.24 4.35 and 4.11 Apr thru July respectively. also for the year despite getting blown up after clearly losing his way, Correia’s HOME xFIP was 4.34 and his AWAY xFIP was 4.41 . Correia officially does not suck haha
Sorry, I was nitpicking WTM, not you
Ha ha, didn’t mean to be piling on — it’s just that WTM said FIP was a better stat to judge Correia, and that’s what you were using. FIP even more than ERA restricts the damage to August.
I tend to agree with you that Correia wasn’t as bad as folks are making out, but I’d still like to add someone who’s better and keep him as a swingman.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 2, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
By FIP Correia has been a crappy pitcher the last two years. You still have the problem of needing to ignore August to find him to be just mediocre in 2011. I don’t think cutting out a chunk of a season is a legitimate analysis, especially when he’s pitched at basically the same level for the last two full seasons. He’s a guy you go into a season with as rotation depth, not as a lock to be in the rotation, unless you’re the Pirates.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 2, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not a Correia lover by any means, but I do think he did some nice pitching early in the season, and really was the key to our team getting over the road woes. That’s not enough to just pencil him in to a rotation spot, but he should certainly be in the 7-8 man mix.
I think stats for pitchers can be very misleading. New pitches, new deliveries, and a new mindset are reasons that pitcher make turnarounds every season. Stats for pitchers are even less important when you start applying some stats to pitchers, but then stating that the stat is only a good indicator for certain pitchers.
by ballparkfranks on Jan 2, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Kevin Correia
Is better as a mop-up reliever at his point.
Give Lincoln as 5th starter and see what he does.
Pirates need to get after EJack, Maholm, Francis, and Oswalt.
by BadAndy on Jan 2, 2012 12:47 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Correia
Why does Correia become such a centerpiece when we talk about pitching. His contract doesn’t hinder the Pirates. His season wasn’t that bad last year. For instance, we have seen much worse seasons from pitchers like Morton, Duke, and maybe even Maholm. We need at least 7 viable (probably 8) starters going into spring training. He is basically on a 1-year deal now at about $4 million. A year ago Karstens was an afterthought, now are we relying on him? I have no problem with listing Correia as one of 7 or 8 starters going into spring training.
Without a doubt, I would love to sign another decent starter to add to the mix. I count Bedard, Correia, Karstens, Morton, McDonald, and Lincoln—thats only 6.
His season wasn’t that bad last year.
Not exactly where I’d set the bar. And it was his second straight bad season. There’s no evidence that he has anywhere close to Morton’s ceiling.
I don’t see Karstens as a long term answer, either, but at least he’s coming off a very strong season. I can’t blame them for not moving a guy with a 113 ERA+ to the bullpen, even if other measures provide good reason to believe it was a fluke. A guy with an ERA+ of 73, 97, 68 and 80 in his four years as a starter is a different matter.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 2, 2012 1:07 PM EST up reply actions
To clarify
The Pirates (and any other team) should be looking for 7-8 viable major league starting pitching options to open spring training. The guys you list are minor league depth right now, and we need those as well. The Pirates have actually had great luck with avoiding injuries to pitchers. That won’t necessarily continue.
by ballparkfranks on Jan 2, 2012 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
can we fast-forward to march?
haha i can’t wait for this season…
Anyway – Karstens kind of earned my trust last season and i think even if he’ll regress somewhat, he is a legitimate ML SP. I expect FIPs of less than 4 for Karstens Morton and McDonald this year. I remember a start in the early summer against the Dodgers where Karstens was getting SO LUCKY – liners with men on base going directly at Cutch etc. This was right when he started going on a tear. I became very skeptical but THEN continuing to watch him, his control and movement seemed to increase to me. Every time late in the year i was thinking ’he’ll get blown up by this tough offense’ he stuck in there and delivered a quality start. IDK i think we shouldn’t doubt him as much as we are
Or maybe a bit earlier
The hope would be that by some time in 2013 Cole, Taillon, McPerson, Sanchez, and Locke will be ready to make a contribution, either for the Pirates or as trade pieces. Improving the 2012 club is a fine idea, but seeing what Lincoln can do would seem like the primary task.
Viva Clemente!
2013
could be exciting, but I think 2014 is when the real fun will begin. Alot depends on Taillon and how quickly we take off the gloves.
Either way, we need to extend Cutch for even one year, although two or three would be optimal obviously.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 2, 2012 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Gee...
I get hammered for expecting minor leaguers to move through the system in 3-4 years (at least to AA or AAA)…and we have people trying to get Cole here in a little over 1…and Taillon in a little over 2.
I still don't think Taillon gets here in 2013.
And if Cole starts at Bradenton, I have doubts he’d be here in 13 either.
And no, I don’t think ZVR is ready for the show. What I do think is that NH/FC and their group get entirely too much credit for their acquisition, drafting and development. If they were actually good at what they do, we’d have quite a few guys a lot closer to the majors than what we actually have in our system.
compared to what other organization, thunder?
what other team has multiple players make the show after just one or two seasons in the minor leagues? and im not talking about 1 superstar player like a strasburg or trout getting the call, because Alvarez has already done this himself. ( 1 1/2 seasons as a minor leaguer before the callup)
Obviously, you misunderstood.
I don’t expect players to make the majors in 1 or 2 seasons in the minors. I do expect to see more than a few progress past Class A in 3 or 4 years, though.
and again, quite a few of the 2008 draftees are knocking on the door in Pittsburgh
abviously we’re not understanding each other
2008 draft class:
Pedro Alvarez: MLB
Jordy Mercer: AAA
Chase d’Arnaud: MLB
Justin Wilson: AAA
Robbie Grossman: A+
Matt Hague: AAA
Michael Colla: AA
Wesley Freeman: A
Jarek Cunningham: A+
That’s about all of the players from that draft that I think would be considered obvious prospects at this point. There are some other interesting guys, mostly in the low levels. This is without taking into account that many of them will move up this season, either.
by thecheeseisblue on Jan 3, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
I do expect to see more than a few progress past Class A in 3 or 4 years, though.
We’ve generally focused on high school players in the draft, and only the very best high school players get to AA in three years. A typical progression for a skilled and advanced high-school pick would be short-season ball in the signing year, A in the second year, and A+ in the third.
Jackson
The point that should be made is that the article referenced is really about NOT signing Edwin Jackson and looking at cheaper alternatives on 1-year deals.
Although I ended up defending Correia in this thread, that shouldn’t be the focus. Of course when there is a picture of Correia and a reference to Correia as being THE guy they are talking about, and the first reply is about Correia, it is kind of hard not to defend him. Correia’s contract can be eaten as easily as Ikamura’s was, so I don’t really see how he is a big part of this discussion.
Pitching
Consider this – guys like Correia don’t look quite as bad when they are on teams that can score runs. If we could raise our run output, we could live a little easier with these 4.00+ ERA types.
Not a fan of Jackson at the 5 year $60 MM price tag
Way too high of a risk for an above average but not great player. Spend that $60 MM on Cutch instead.
Correia has a 4.46 career xFIP. Why are people still harping that he didn’t play well last season? Everybody that follows sabermetrics knew what he was before he got here. For pitchers with at least 150 innings, he ranked 91st in xFIP last year and 104th in FIP out of 107. He is a 4th/5th starter, and the contract isn’t that bad. I wouldn’t have signed him, but the deal wasn’t egregious at the time it was signed and it still isn’t egregious.
Of course it would be nice to have somebody better, but the bottom line is this team is not good and he’s probably still somewhere between our 5th to 7th best option.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
jackson has high BB totals and his WHIP is less than desirable
is he better than Correia? sure.
just not sure hes worth that much money for that many years.
Good points
Which is why I agree with you that we shouldn’t be looking to take ridiculous risks like signing Jackson to a $60MM/5 Year deal.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
"Ridiculous"?
This is a guy who, in 3 years, put up 11+ wins – that’s almost $60M of value in 3 years. You don’t think that, in 5 years, he can produce a bit more than that?
It can’t be age, because he’s got 4 peak years remaining. What’s your argument that he can’t produce ~12 wins in 5 years?
I don’t doubt that he’s likely to provide good value early in the contract. But if the Pirates are going to make a splash like that, I’d prefer they do it a couple years from now. To be paying $12 million or more a year to a non-contributing player in four years, when the Pirates might actually be good, would be a terrible outcome.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 2, 2012 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
Its a waste of money in 2012, probably 2013, and maybe 2014. There is also injury risk, obviously not specific to Jackson but to any contract that large for a team this poor. The ridiculousness of the risk is not player specific but timing specific.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 3, 2012 3:15 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I swear to god
every thread you push the date of possible contention back. Before long, you’ll be scouting the nursery ward, because the Pirates can’t possibly compete before 2032.
If the Pirates aren’t competitive in 2013 with Cutch, Marte, Tabata, Walker, Alvarez, Sanchez, Morton, McDonald, Locke, Owens, and half a year of Cole, they should just shut down.
2032?!
Great! I’ve got a shot at still being alive!
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 3, 2012 9:38 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah,
right.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 3, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
The reason
the “date of possible contention” gets pushed back is, unfortunately, several of the key players are still too much of a question mark going into this year. If I asked you to tell me truthfully which players on the Pirates roster you’d be comfortable in predicting a performance for this year, how many would you say? I’d argue four. Cutch, Walker, J-Mac and Hammer, that’s it. Beyond that very small group there are lots of guys that could be big contributors but you just don’t know. Was Presley a flash in the pan? Will Tabata stay healthy for a full season (his incredibly team friendly contract was worth it even if he is Doumit-esque healthwise)? How is Morton’s hip? Will Pedro and T. Sanchez (less important in 2012 but potentially huge for 2013 and beyond) bounce back? Will Karstens regress? Will Barmes or Barajas hit at all in PNC Park? Will Eric Bedard pitch more than 10 games? Will Lincoln ever take that step forward that I, for one, believe he is capable of?
This is not to say that this year’s club can’t compete. I also don’t think all of these question marks will wind up going the wrong way (knock on wood). However, I think it is only prudent for a team like the Pirates to try and make sure they have a better idea of what they really have in their entire roster before making such a big move. Honestly, the “date of possible contention” might be mid-season of 2012 for all we know. If we are sitting in first place in July again this year but we’re doing it because Cutch has a .900 OPS, Pedro, Walker, and Presley all have an .800 OPS, Tabata has a .300/.360/.420 line with 30 steals, J-Mac, Lincoln and Morton all have ERA’s under 3.75 and Tony Sanchez is raking in AAA, who knows? In that case, the right move for the Pirates might be to deal from an increasingly deep minor league system to get a player for the stretch run because it looks like the core is set going forward. Right now, though, that core is just too uncertain (for me at least) to think giving a $60M contract to a talented but underwhelming pitcher is a smart baseball move.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 3, 2012 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
I don't disagree with this
In 2012 we need (some) good luck just to reach .500, let alone contention (although I think that, with just average luck, the addition of Jackson puts us into .500 range), but 2013 should see us solidly in 80+ win territory, with several possibilities for pushing us above 85 (Pedro, Marte, Tabata, and Sanchez are all guys who could add 3 or more wins beyond whatever you want to call 2013’s baseline).
I understand the position that you want to see an actual 85+ win team before you start adding pieces. But I don’t understand the position that says you shouldn’t even try to put yourself in a position to win until you’ve got 95+ wins in hand. Among other things, doesn’t it seem very likely right now that there will be additional wild card slots by 2013? It’s be a right shame to miss the playoffs by a couple games because the preseason consensus was that we wouldn’t win the division going away, and so we stood pat (or traded Cutch for prospects to be ready in 2015, which I believe is Kosstic’s stated preference).
I'm not saying
that they have to have 95 wins in hand before they add pieces but I think the potential problems that could keep the team from being .500 this year (all the question marks above) would have the same effect on 2013 and beyond. If the Pirates are hit with such horrible luck that it could only happen to…well…the Pirates, then they will, unfortunately, not be solidly in 80+ win territory next year. If Pedro flat out sucks this year, Marte can’t get his AAA OBP over .315, Presley flames out, Tabata can’t stay healthy, Sanchez never rediscovers any power and Morton/Lincoln/Karstens all struggle, what makes you think that the 2013 Pirates will be any good? While it would be soul-crushing to have all of those things happen at once, I don’t think we have the sample size necessary to make judgements on those guys. Realistically, two or three of those bad outcomes are probably going to happen. That’s just how baseball works. If the rest of the guys go the other way, though, I agree that the team could really compete as early as 2013. All I’m saying is I want to see a little more out of those guys before I’m ready to commit to a big contract because I believe this is the group that’s gonna turn things around for the Bucs.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 3, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
I hear you
Honestly, I never really thought about Jackson before his contract target was announced, because he seemed obviously out of our league. But 4/44 is eminently affordable (now and in year 4), and IMO a significant undervalue. Compare the De La Rosa contract – he was a year older, had been less productive (less than half the WAR over the previous 3 years), and yet got 2/21 with a player option for 11M in year 3. Would you give a pitcher who’s only had 1 season above 135 IP a player option for his age 32 season? IOW, the only way the contract isn’t 3/32 is if it is producing surplus value, at which point you lose the guy.
Anyway, point being that, while I’ve wanted them to be in position to reap good 2012 performances by having another reliable, 2+ WAR SP, I haven’t been on the warpath for a big signing. But Jackson seems like a special case to me, an undervalued guy who can give us a bump now and help in the years when we hope to be truly good.
I would do 4/44
Honestly, it would scare the living hell out of me but I would do it. The thing is, I don’t think that gets it done. I think to get Jackson to Pittsburgh would take 5/60 and that’s too steep for me. Maybe they could work something where the 5th year is a TEAM option for $16M and that might lure Jackson to Pittsburgh but I don’t like the idea of being on the hook to him for that 5th year at that much money.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 3, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
As I said above
I would want some favorable terms in the contract to make me accept 5/60 (although I think that consensus is that that’s a blustery opening offer, not a serious proposal), and I’d rather pay a higher AAV to get him for 4 years.
But I would at least be tempted to go to 5 years, because I don’t think he’s going to be worthless in that last year, and most of our best players will still be cheap (or, in the case of Cutch, gone) then.
Think of this: our worst SP would be Karstens, with 3 capable guys lined up behind him if 2011 turns out to have been his peak. Instead of needing Cole and Taillon just to get the rotation to mediocre, they would take a decent, even good, rotation, and make it a top tier one.
Oh well. Not actually likely to happen.
I'm not sure I've said that 2012 would be a good year in any post. Maybe you can find one to prove me wrong.
2013 I said probably won’t be competitive, but I’m not completely writing it off yet. That is the first year they actually might have a chance. That’s the stance I’ve had for a while. If we catch unlikely breaks we may not have a good 2013 or 2014, who knows.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
What you said
Having Jackson on the team – adding 3-4 wins – would be a “waste of money” for certain in ’12, “probably” in ’13, and “maybe” in ’14.
Now, if you want to be a nihilist, Sabathia’s contract is “maybe” a waste of money in 2012 – after all, Jeter, A-Rod, and Rivera are clear collapse risks, Tex is on the wrong side of 31, and the rest of the rotation is suspect. But nobody would think that’s a reasonable way to think about “maybe” or about “waste of money”. If a team has even a 50-50 chance of contending, then you try to add wins, including spending money. So your position is that in 2013 they will probably not even be at 50-50 to compete (in a weak division, and with a lot of talent on the roster), and that in 2014 there’s a real chance that they won’t be 50-50 to compete.
And so they should stand pat. They should, literally, not even attempt to get better before 2015, because the odds are so good that they’ll be bad every year between now and then. And of course, Cutch will be gone after 2015, taking 5-7 wins with him, so they obviously won’t compete in 2016 either. Sounds to me like they need to sale the team.
by JRoth95 on Jan 3, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How many games did the Yankees win last year
How many games did the Pirates win last year?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 3, 2012 9:23 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
How many games did the Diamondbacks win in 2010?
The D-Backs should have traded Upton last winter for prospects who could contribute in 2014, since his contract was a waste of money in 2011, probably 2012, and maybe 2013.
What makes Jackson likely to be a "non-contributing player" in 2016?
He’ll be 32 – last I checked, that’s not old for a pitcher. He’s likely to be less good than he was at age 27, but I’ll take “less good” than 3.8 wins, even at $12M. We’re not talking about a guy with health issues like Reyes, or a contract with multiple out years like Pujols’.
Obviously, he could get hurt, but that’s true for every single pitcher of every possible age. I’d prefer not to sign a 5 year contract (in fact, I’d probably prefer 4/$50 to 5/$60), and I take your point about how his production curve is likely to map against the team’s best chances, but you take your opportunities where you find them. How many 28-y.o. SPs who are good, yet seemingly undervalued by the market, come around?
And let's talk about that curve
If Bedard stays healthy and Pedro is minimally competent, 2012 looks like a ~75 win team, maybe a touch better. Add Jackson and a breakout from Tabata or Pedro (not career years, just 3.5 wins or better), and we’re at .500 without anyone playing above his head. End the Streak, change the narrative, increase the season ticket base, improve the finances – all beneficial things that make us more competitive in the years beyond.
In 2013, Sanchez and Marte should arrive, plus more starting pitching, plus a decent chance at half a year of Gerritt Cole. The Central will still be wide open (Berkman and Carpenter will be on Social Security by then, Greinke will be gone, and the Brewers’ farm is barren, and the Cubs won’t be fixed yet), and – especially with Jackson – we should be the second best team in the division.
And in 2014, everything should come together – current players still at their peaks, rising position players established, and at least Cole, if not Taillon as well, fully contributing. And wouldn’t you want 3 extra wins that year? No guarantee they’ll be available for purchase the winter before, and no guarantee that a team that puntedª as recently as 2012 will be an acceptable destination.
Look, I have no idea of Jackson’s really available to the Pirates at reasonable terms. I don’t think they should go for broke in signing him. But I think that adding ~3 wins in ‘12, ’13, and ’14 helps to flatten the curve by raising it, adding additional years in which they are likely to be winning 80 and 90 games. And I don’t see him hurting us as an age-31 player. Hoping to time everything just so, such that they have a killer team in 2014 surrounded by garbage, is no more sensible than hoping that every good-not-great player has a career year at the same time.
ª letting Maholm walk and counting on Correia to be your #5, when the payroll could have fit someone much better, is close enough to punting, even with the Barmes signing
Edwin
Face it guys, we are not going to give Edwin Jackson 4 or 5 years. It ain’t gonna happen. Neal will not do that, you know it. And he’s not going to give him $8-10 mm per year.
NH reportedly offered Jose De La Rosa a contract that averaged at least $10MM per season
never say never, amigo
Then
JDLR’s elbow promptly blew up which rightly or wrongly has possibly made NH more cautious now.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 3, 2012 1:32 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Please show me any indications (outside of MLBTradeRumors.com) of where NH has offered ANYONE more than the $7.05M that LaRoche got before his last season here.
prove to me that NH definately hasnt offered anyone an 8 figure contract
see, we could do this all day
Owens and locke for bud norris
Free bud norris!
by tbote123 on Jan 2, 2012 9:19 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I’d do that in a heartbeat, but there’s no way the Astros would. And Norris is kind of already free, isn’t he?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 2, 2012 11:29 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think Oswalt comes here......
….if for no other reason he would anticipate being traded at the deadline and the Bucs won’t (I don’t think) give him a no-trade clause. I really, really think the FO should be SERIOUSLY looking at signing or trading for a pitcher who has the ability to stay with us for a few years, a solid #2 or 3 SP..the 1-year deals have their place and can offer good value for a player like Bedard but at what point are longer-term solutions sought? I know we have some hot pitching prospects but that’s all they are at the moment- minor-league prospects. IMO, and to put in football terms, our FA signings are like going sideline to sideline and rarely forward-at what point do we take a chance and throw downfield?? As for what pitchers I’ll leave that debate to far more astute than I….
by Marooned Pirate on Jan 3, 2012 11:45 AM EST reply actions
On the other hand, he may want to get traded. If no top contenders show enough interest in Oswalt now, signing with a team like the Pirates might be a good fit. He can rebuild value with a strong season and, if the Bucs are clearly out of contention, wind up getting dealt to a playoff team at the deadline.
by Monkeyking42 on Jan 3, 2012 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
Someone might ask the question why Jackson has pitched for 5 teams in the last 4 seasons…even with the numbers he’s had?
I've thought about that
There’s really no evidence (that I’ve seen) that he’s a problem player like Crisp or Bradley. I suspect that he’s not personally popular, but that, without Bondsian talent, clubs aren’t willing to put up with whatever the issue is.
I’ve also read that it’s a matter of failing to meet high expectations. People look at his stuff and want him to be a 1/2 SP, and so his 2/3 performances (closer to 2, really) make teams feel that he’s expendable.
Perhaps a bit like Cedeno.
I think your second paragraph probably nails it. He’s a good pitcher, but a team that doesn’t have him looks at his stuff and thinks he could be a GREAT pitcher. Then they try that for a while and another team comes along.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 3, 2012 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Value to someone else
The Dodgers traded him for two established bullpen arms when he was 22 and unproven and they were gearing up to contend (and thought they were dealing from a position of strength).
Tampa traded him to Detroit to avoid paying him arbitration.
Detroit traded him when it netted them a haul (Jackson, Schlereth, Scherzer, and Coke).
Arizona traded them because they loved Daniel Hudson.
Chicago traded him as a sort of salary cap relief after they unexpectedly stunk last year.
Toronto traded him because they saw St. Louis giving up on a talent like Colby Rasmus.
St. Louis didn’t resign him because they don’t really have a pressing need for him with Wainright coming back.
All of these moves make sense individually, and it seems like teams like him fine, but other teams put more value on him. I think it’s just a random anomaly that the same guy keeps getting traded. I love Cutch, but if Washington offered Strasburg, Ramos, and Mike Morse, I’d be all for trading him.
by SuperBaes on Jan 3, 2012 11:30 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yep.
Well said. If teams perceive him as valuable, they’ll trade for him.
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 4, 2012 9:21 AM EST up reply actions
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