Starling Marte #7 OF prospect on MLB.com
Starling finally getting some love!
4 months ago
patient pirate
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I think that's
almost exactly how I’d peg the OF prospects. You could make a case that Bell could sneak into the back of the list but I don’t think I can be genuinely upset that he misses the cut before he’s taken a pro AB.
I think I’d push Jackson back a couple of spots, and bump Gose off of the list, but other than that it’s pretty good.
I wouldn't fight you
on either of those two points really. The only reason I’d keep Jackson where he is is the whole “proximity to the majors” side of it. He might not be much closer than Marte but he played in and succeeded in AAA at the end of last year. I’m OK giving him a slight bump for that. If he were a little lower, though, it wouldn’t bother me.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 23, 2012 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW
Bell, Michael Choice, Rymer Liriano, Leonys Martin, Bryce Brentz, Mason Williams, George Springer, and Grossman could all make a case.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 23, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
Of
those let’s take a gander..
Martin
Springer
Bell
Liriano
Choice
Grossman
Williams
Brentz
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 24, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
i know it would be extremely unpopular
but if Marte has as good of a year at AAA this year as he did at AA last year, Andrew McCutchen suddenly becomes very tradable IMO especially if he refuses to sign an extension into his FA years.
I love Cutch, do not get me wrong, but i love the Pirates winning the division more. Cutch could be traded for VERY great pieces that could complete our team and make us a playoff team while not losing much production in CF with Marte.
Or we could just trade Marte that’d be simpler and would make people happier. Either way one’s gotta go sometime
If Marte has a good year at AAA, lets see him be similarly successful at the MLB level before we just up and trade Cutch. By deadline 2014, he would still have a year left of control, so moving him could still net huge prospects, or we could be competing for the division or world series anyways
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
What if
Presley bombs this year (just as a for instance)? Wouldn’t you rather have Cutch in LF, Marte in CF and Tabata in RF instead of trying to plug the 3rd OF spot with somebody new (this all assumes that Marte plays well enough to deserve that starting role).
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 23, 2012 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed...No reason to rush trading Cutch...but...
as a small market team, you work with windows, and need to cash in when you can. If you get a ridiculous package for Cutch tomorrow, I think you have to take it.
Let’s face it, if Marte is a bust, and we hold onto Cutch, our chances of a winner arent great anyway, so I think you make the move, and hope Marte and everyone develops as planned.
The problem
is that you can’t take anything less than total market value for Cutch. The Bucs just couldn’t afford making a deal where they traded away their best asset since Barry Bonds for a below market value price. Unfortunately (or maybe not) the market price for Cutch is so high that nobody in baseball could afford it.
Pirates Prospects has made this analysis several times and determined it would essentially take a team’s entire farm system. Even if you assume McCutchen absolutely shatters the arbitration records he’d still be worth a ton. Using the 40%-60%-80% model and 5.7 WAR/year, McCutchen would be paid $11.4M, $17.1M and $22.8M in his arbitration years. Again, I will point out that this would be (by a wide margin) the most anybody has ever gotten in arbitration. McCutchen’s trade value using these numbers would be roughly $62.2M. Let’s say the Rangers were sick of losing in the WS and wanted to go for it now. It would take Jurickson Profar (#10 according to The Scouting Book, one of the few top-100 lists to be released already), Martin Perez (#29), and Leonys Martin (#91) to get it done. I have a hard time seeing an organization being willing to totally strip its farm system like that (especially since that’s about as low as you could get Cutch’s value).
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 23, 2012 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Just a note on arb
Last time we talked about Cutch in arb, it was pointed out that no one’s ever made that much in arb, but it’s very clear why: everyone who might have signed extensions or had serious setback seasons during their arb years.
The ifs are if Cutch doesn’t extend and if he stays healthy, not if arbitrators will break records. We don’t know for sure that they will, but their failure to do so in the past doesn’t (IMO) reflect reluctance so much as circumstances.
IOW, I need to see specific players who “deserved” (per the 40-60-80 model) more than they got. Simply saying that no one’s ever gotten 11.4, 17.1, and 22.8 doesn’t mean much if no one with 5.7 WAR/year ever has gone for arb 3 times.
The tiny type in all the ads:
“Past performance is not a guarantee of future earnings. You may lose (or earn) money.”
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 24, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
It would take Jurickson Profar (#10 according to The Scouting Book, one of the few top-100 lists to be released already), Martin Perez (#29), and Leonys Martin (#91) to get it done. I have a hard time seeing an organization being willing to totally strip its farm system like that (especially since that’s about as low as you could get Cutch’s value).
If the Rangers offered that package for Cutch, I’d have to think pretty hard about it.
What if Alex doesn't bomb?
And conitnues to exceed expectations. And if Marte continues his success and improves his pitch recognition and plate discipline? Presley to 1B in 2013? Assuming the Pirates don’t get a 1B from outside the organization?
If all four
Cutch, Tabata, Presley, and Marte play up to expectations this year then one of them (my guess is AP) would be on the trading block next offseason.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 23, 2012 7:28 PM EST up reply actions
WHY DO YOU HATE MCCLOUTH
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 23, 2012 8:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I've heard people say this
and I strongly disagree. If McCutchen can handle (or excel at) CF defensively, why would it hurt his value because the Pirates had one that happened to be better. Just as a hypothetical, lets say the Pirates got Franklin Gutierrez in a trade. Since he is far and away the best defensive CF in baseball the Pirates would be stupid not to move Cutch to left. If, in a subsequent move, they traded Cutch to the Nats, who desperately need a CF, wouldn’t Washington play him in center? Would they stick him in left just because that’s where the Pirates had him? If the team that would be trading for him would play him in center then his value is still as a center fielder.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 23, 2012 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Why would the Bucs trade for Franklin Gutierrez?
I think the Pirates trading for a CF is a strange hypothetical.
I don’t think there’s really a big problem with having another OF w/ CF range (Marte). Assuming an OF of Tabata, Cutch & Marte, Marte could play LF b/c the proportions of PNC actually beg for two CF. Tabata has enough arm for RF. That would give us a tremendous amount of range in the OF.
I know the ideal scenario is Cutch in LF and Marte in CF, but that’s a pretty small sacrifice to make to keep your star happy (assuming Cutch doesn’t want to be moved out of CF). It’s not like Cutch is a below average CF, and considering the jump in his defensive metrics from his rookie year to last season, there’s no reason not to believe he’s still improving. He certainly possesses the tools to do so.
Sorry
I might have been unclear but you missed my point. I wasn’t suggesting that the Pirates could, would or should make either of those trades, I was just trying to show why McCutchen’s value would not be hindered just because he was moved to left by a superior defensive CF (Marte might be better while Gutierrez is definitively better with the glove). If a player has the skills to be an good to elite defensive CF (which I think is true about Cutch) then he has the trade value of a CF even if there was a slightly better defensive CF on the roster to bump him to a corner. I only mentioned the Gutierrez trade (which admittedly might have been confusing) because while some people might disagree that Marte is a better defender, I didn’t think anybody would disagree that Gutierrez is better with the glove.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 24, 2012 7:48 AM EST up reply actions
because cutch is so valuable BECAUSE of CF
Cutch’s 820 OPS is certainly nice in general but the reason he put up 5.7 WAR last year is because his 820 OPS IN CENTERFIELD while playing good defense is remarkable and makes him one of the most valuable players in baseball. Yes he would obviously be a great LF defensively but his offensive numbers wouldnt be quite as spectacular
But
it’s not as if the other GMs would forget that Cutch can play CF.
You could make the argument if Cutch had been bumped off CF in his first year or two – he’d be essentially unproven at that position. But if he spends 500+ games in CF, and then spends half a year in LF because Marte is a better defender, teams will still look to acquire Andrew as an elite CF, not an above average LF.
This
is the point I was trying to make. Where he plays on the Pirates is irrelevant because he would still be played as an outstanding defensive CF on pretty much any other club in baseball.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 24, 2012 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
ah ok
i understand what you mean.
HOWEVA – andrew being in LF also would reduce his value TO US TOO haha he would produce less WAR! Right?
In my opinion the only position we are “Set” at is the outfield. We are DEFINITELY set. we can trade from our outfield. If Presley bombs then Grossman ain’t far away. Tabata is set in LF. as soulless as you may think NH is Tabata took a HUGE pay cut so bad that his agent f’n quit. he will get to play every day if healthy in LF. he will not bomb either i am 99% sure
A couple of points
First of all, if you really asked Tabata, I’m assuming he’d rather play RF than LF. The smaller space might also take some of the strain off of his hammys.
As far as Cutch’s value to us, I’m not so sure he’d actually be less valuable as a LF. He would be statistically less valuable (his WAR might go down) but I’m not sure he’d be worth less to the team in terms of his actual contribution. Especially with PNC’s massive LF, it wouldn’t suck to have him as the best defensive LF in baseball lined up next to an elite defensive CF instead of having him as one of the best CF’s in baseball. Also, and this is really going pretty far down the rabbit hole, but having Cutch in left might also give the Pirates more ammo to argue if and when Cutch goes to arbitration. Arb hearings are a strange beast in that they often require the team and their reps to go before the arbitrator and talk about everything that he sucks at. Being able to say that he is “only a LF” and pointing to his lower WAR (meaning the arbitrary statistical calculation not his actual value to the club) could help the team to drive down his arbitration award.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 24, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
If Presley bombs then Grossman ain’t far away.
I disagree with Grossman not being far away. In the best case, he might get here in 2013.
by BurgherKing on Jan 24, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Towards the end of last season,
When both Presley and Tabata were on the field together, Presley played LF, and Tabata RF. I could be wrong, but I believe the Of configuration in 2012, when all 3 are healthy at the same time, will be Presley, McCutchen, and Tabata, left to right.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 24, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
you're right on the OF config
Tabata seems to have the better arm compared to Presley also.
If Presley bombs – we have even less of a chance of contending this year or next. Grossman along with Cole Taillon would be our next chance.
IF Presley bombs
couldn’t Marte step in? Why do you see AP as the make or break piece? I think Pedro is exponentially more important.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 24, 2012 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
I only
do this if it really looks like Cutch won’t resign and I’m still uncomfortable with it.
I’d rather just play the next 4 years with Cutch, try and build a playoff team around him, then trade him at the deadline at 2015 if we have too or let him walk and grab the draft picks.
If you really wanna trade him, I’d like to point out no team is going to offer substantially more now, this July, or next offseason compared to what they will offer July of 2014, if it comes to it. Look what Pence fetched with a year and a half of control.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 23, 2012 7:34 PM EST up reply actions
my main point is this year we have to gauge how good Marte will be in MLB. if he plays in MLB in two years like he just did all year at AA he’s easily going to put up 4+ WAR. If he was going to do that and we could trade Cutch for even 2 other 4+ WAR players at positions of need i say pull the effin trigger baby haha. But that’s a optimistic scenario
ULTIMATELY – i expect Cutch to resign and i expect him to resign sooner rather than later. I think we’ll get ONE extra year of FA bought out from him
I may agree if
we can trade Cutch for two sure thing, major league ready players that could fit now, but again, we could do that in 2014. 2014 is when we expect Taillon to make the majors anyway, so what’s the rush?
More of a general statement than an argument against you Mingy.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 24, 2012 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
wow just copy what i say about dealing him in 2014 dudeeeeee. ;)
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
From Biertempfel's twitter, 8:30 am today...
#Pirates gm huntington tells mlb radio it would take “dramatic overpay” for him to even consider trading andrew mccutchen
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Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 24, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
and by dramatic overpay that means
Acquiring the TOP FIVE prospects on a Top 10 farm system.
I'll
take Profar, Martin, Perez, Olt, and Buckel please!
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 24, 2012 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
Well
that’s 4 in the top 10 lists so far.. Cole, Taillon, Marte, Dickerson. Last year we only had two I believe with Sanchez and Taillon.
Crossing fingers for.. let’s go bold and say 9 next year. Tony Sanchez rebounds, Heredia makes it on the top 10 RH, Grossman and Bell both make the OF list, and we add our 1st round draftee.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 23, 2012 7:32 PM EST reply actions
So...
you’re saying you believe the Pirates will draft very high in the first round next year? Top 5?
yeah that 8 pick could easily fetch a top 10 prospect in a position category
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Yep
a LHP (Max Fried?), another 1B (Victor Roache), a SS (Marrero if he somehow falls or Correa), 3B in Trey Williams, etc.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 24, 2012 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
with pnc's huge left field
i think having marte and cutch a huge advantage.
by karreemofwheat on Jan 24, 2012 10:14 AM EST reply actions
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