5 struggling former prospects you shouldn't give up on

its a slow news week. some of these have been the topic of discussion here of late. our fate seems intertwined with number 2, though the f.o. has a contingency plan if he fails.

4 months ago karreemofwheat 19 comments 0 recs |

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if Prince signs with the Mariners

I’d like us to get entwined with number 1 too.

by Mingy on Jan 24, 2012 8:54 AM EST reply actions

agreed

but

1.) I believe that $$$ is an issue in Seattle, as has been expressed by some baseball people. Had Felix been the one moved instead of Pineda, I would say they had the money to do it (or if Ichiro would abruptly retire, leaving his millions available).

2.) Would we be willing to part with what it would take to get him? I would argue that, even with last year’s numbers, Smoak is quite a valuable trade piece — he put together a good start/end of the season.

by insane_sanity on Jan 24, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions

well if $ if a prob for them

i’d agree to take on Smoak and maybe an awful contract for them to reduce the cost of prospect we have to send. what if we took that terrible 3B/2B contract off of them. can’t remember his name right now but he was kinda awesome for the angels and has been AWFUL for mariners.

by Mingy on Jan 24, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions

Chone Figgins.

by thecheeseisblue on Jan 24, 2012 12:15 PM EST up reply actions

i love it when...

people outside of BD compare pedro’s stats to a young mike schmidt. :-D

by white angus on Jan 24, 2012 8:55 AM EST reply actions

its helping to adjust the coloring of my rose colored glasses

by karreemofwheat on Jan 24, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions

It's a nice thought, but I don't think it's an entirely appropriate comparison.

Schmidt had some big holes in his profile in 1973, but it’s important to remember that:

a) unlike Pedro, Schmidt was a Gold Glove-caliber defender, giving his bat a lot more margin for error
and
b) in a 1973 NL context, that .196/.324/.373 batting line was still good for a 92 OPS+

by Vlad on Jan 25, 2012 11:37 AM EST up reply actions

Still, I certainly wouldn’t complain if Pedro went on to have a Schmidt-like career.

by Vlad on Jan 25, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions

I would

because based on how much control we have left…he’d do a majority of it elsewhere.

by insane_sanity on Jan 25, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions

If you look only at last year's numbers...

the Schmidt line is also dramatically better than Pedro’s, context aside.

Pedro’s career line is good for a 90 OPS+, though, so as a whole it’s kind of fair. The big difference is that Schmidt also showed elite walk-drawing ability (I won’t say “discipline”, given all the Ks). Since that’s kind of Pedro’s problem, I end up not being buoyed overmuch by the comparison. Staring at his 2010 line with my hand over the bottom of the screen works better.

by tobynotjason on Jan 25, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe a better comparison

is the last elite young 3B to play in Pittsburgh (not named Laroche or Bautista that is), Aramis Ramirez. Like Pedro, A-Ram put together a very encouraging stat line during his age-23 season (essentially their first in the bigs). Both players had awful sophomore slumps during their age-24 seasons. Due to injury, Pedro was limited to 262 PA’s that year and put up his horrible .191/.272/.289/.561 line. A-Ram had a little better luck with his health and played the full year but finished with an ugly 72 OPS+ (compared to Pedro’s 56). However, at midseason, when Ramirez had 263 PA’s on July 12, his line was .213/.259/.331/.589 which looks eerily similar. Ramirez is also hardly a Gold-Glover at the hot-corner like Schmidt was.

So while it might have been a stretch to say that Petey could be the next Mike Schmidt, it’s less absurd to say he could be the next Aramis Ramirez and I certainly wouldn’t complain if that’s what we got out of our #2 pick…

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 25, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Part of the reason Ramirez’s age-24 season was so bad is that he spent most of the second half of the year playing through an ankle injury, because the team’s primary 3B backups were Mike Benjamin and Keith Osik and a Ramirez with no speed or balance was still better than the alternatives.

by Vlad on Jan 25, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

I don't know when

Ramirez got hurt but his play actually improved over the course of the season (.603 OPS in 1st half, .716 2nd) so spending “most of the second half…playing through an ankle injury” can’t really be blamed for his shitty numbers. Also, couldn’t you make the same injury excuse for Pedro last year? He was never able to work his way out of his slow start because he couldn’t get and stay healthy. I’m not saying it’s a perfect comparison as I’m not convinced there has ever been a perfect Player A/Player B comparison. All I was trying to say is that a similar young talent went through similar struggles in his second year and became a very good player. Also, it takes less of an irrational, best case scenario-type leap of faith to hope that Pedro can become a 2x All-Star with 300+ career homers and a 114 OPS+ than to say he’ll become a 12x All-Star, 3x MVP with 500+ homers, a 147 OPS+ and a 1st ballot HOF’er that got 96.5% of the vote.

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 25, 2012 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

Also, couldn’t you make the same injury excuse for Pedro last year?

Ramirez couldn’t walk without a limp. He was basically playing on one leg. His problem was much more serious than Pedro’s.

Ramirez got hurt but his play actually improved over the course of the season (.603 OPS in 1st half, .716 2nd) so spending "most of the second half…playing through an ankle injury" can’t really be blamed for his shitty numbers

Ramirez’s injury happened in late April – see the gap in his game log between April 17th and May 4th (the early part of which overlapped with a seven-game suspension for charging the mound against Ben Sheets, the activity in which he was engaged at the time when he sprained the ankle). At the time of the injury, he was carrying a .348/.407/.500 batting line. In the first month after he came back (May 4 – June 3), he hit .138/.168/.264, He could’ve recovered fully if they’d let him sit out for a couple more weeks, but instead they rushed him back and had him play hurt, and he didn’t get his rhythm all the way back until the season was almost over.

by Vlad on Jan 25, 2012 6:06 PM EST up reply actions

I honestly

wrote and then deleted the line “unless he got hurt at the end of April” when I said that his injury couldn’t be blamed for his shitty numbers. I truly didn’t remember when in the season Ramirez was hurt but I didn’t feel like looking it up so I just broke down the season into halves since you said he played through it in the second half.

Again, though, I’m not saying it’s a perfect comparison. You really can’t find two players that are exactly alike. Jose and Ozzie Canseco were identical twins, meaning they share the exact same genetic makeup. They also trained together and (presumably) used the same kind of steroids. However, one went on to be an elite player while the other had 13 career hits. I only brought up Ramirez at all in response to the Mike Schmidt comparisons. Obviously it’s not going to line up exactly but as far as comparisons go, it’s not bad:

-Both had their first extended ML action at 23 and played pretty well
-Both were top prospects
-Both were 3B
-Both played for the Pirates
-Both were sub-par defenders
-Both were power hitters
-Both got hurt in their “sophomore” years (the severity of the injuries differ)
-Both had an OPS below .600 through ~260 PA during their age-24 years

I agree with you that it’s not exact and maybe it’s easier to give A-Ram a free pass for his struggles. However, the two players aren’t THAT far off…

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 25, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

Watching A-Ram play 3B in 2002 was painful

He improved dramatically in Chicago; whether it was hard work or a little help from Derek Lee, I can’t say. And it does 3 things to me:

1) instills confidence that Petey might be able to stick there

2) makes me fear that Miggy could be passable there and the AL becomes null and void with the Tigers winning 120 games a year for the next 5 years

3) makes me doubt the accuracy of dWAR at BBREF. Not only is it wildly different from UZR, but I watched the vast majority of those Pirate games and putting him anywhere near “mediocre AAA guy who has ever played 3B before” is an insult to said unnamed player.

by SuperBaes on Jan 26, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions