Community Prospect #27
by epoc on Jan 25, 2012 10:14 AM EST
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Gorkys Hernandez ran away with the #26 spot, receiving a cool 60% of the vote. Matt Hague was the runner-up.
1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Starling Marte
4. Josh Bell
5. Luis Heredia
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Stetson Allie
10. Nick Kingham
11. Rudy Owens
12. Jeff Locke
13. Jarek Cunningham
14. Alex Dickerson
15. Zack Von Rosenberg
16. Colton Cain
17. Jordy Mercer
18. Zack Dodson
19. Clayton Holmes
20. Alen Hanson
21. Yamaico Navarro
22. Justin Wilson
23. Bryan Morris
24. Matt Curry
25. Jose Osuna
26. Gorkys Hernandez
I'm adding Mel Rojas and Brock Holt to the poll. 24 hours.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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+1
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
+1
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 25, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
+1
There’s plenty of room on the Matt Hague train. Jump on baord!
by Midnight Moose on Jan 25, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
ELEVYS GONZALEZ
+1
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
+1
Beat me to it by five minutes.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
by wg1of5 on Jan 25, 2012 10:50 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Thin my next three are Cabrera, Elevys, Irwin. Then we’re probably getting into the territory where I really can’t make a judgment.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 25, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
and that was meant to go under discussion, sorry
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 25, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Hague
Please don’t vote for Matt Hague. 26-year-old R/R 1B with below-average power are not prospects.
Sorry
I value performance highly….. and performance at upper levels more highly. Hague has performed consistently as he has advanced through the minor leagues, and there’s nothing to indicate that he wouldn’t continue to perform as a major leaguer. I KNOW the Pirates don’t value him….. and apparently, many here don’t value him….. but I do.
I don’t value “potential” or “ceiling” or “tools” so much until they begin to translate into performance. Seen too many bad apples out of THAT barrel. As such, Rojas didn’t make my personal top 30 list….. and if I made a top 40, he wouldn’t make that list, either.
Well said.
There’s a place on the BD prospect list for Matt Hague.
This whole “Matt Hague’s 26” drivel reminds me of the battles I had getting Dan McCutchen placed on another prospects list, on another board, a few years ago. “He’s too old”, everyone said, because he signed with the Yankees at age 23.
Meantime, DMac has found his niche in the Pirates bullpen. He ain’t sexy, and he ain’t a star, but there’s no question that DMac will be on the team, this season. And half the stumblebums and suspects that got voted on that list ahead of DMac have washed out.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 25, 2012 7:03 PM EST up reply actions
That's kinda how a prospect list works, though
there is a projection involved. Just to use your example, let’s say it’s 2008 and we’re comparing D-Cutch to Andrew Brackman who was a 1st rounder in 2007. You could’ve said that Cutch had a 1% chance of being a TOR starter, a 10% chance of being a BOR starter, a 39% chance of being a reliever and a 50% chance of busting. Brackman on the other hand might have had a 10% chance at being a TOR starter, a 20% chance of being a BOR starter a 10% chance of being a reliever and a 60% chance of being a bust. In that case, it’s not necessarily wrong to place more value on the guy who is 3X more likely to be a ML starting pitcher, even if he’s more likely to flame out.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 25, 2012 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
I understand your point, and I agree with it.
Of course there’s projection involved. We can’t base these lists solely on results. Possible floors and ceilings play heavily into it. And a player being age-appropriate for his level, or even younger than age-appropriate for his level, is big. I get that. Really.
But by the same token, it’s my opinion that ignoring results, and results at the AAA level to boot, just because a player is a year or 2 older than ideal is ill-advised. And especially so, in the case of Hague.
It would one thing if Hague was posting an empty BA, with no plate discipline, and limited gap power, a la Brian Bixler. But that’s not the case. Hague shows very good plate disclpline. And good gap power.
There’s a place in MLB for the Sean Caseys and Casey Kotchmans. Players don’t need to hit a bunch of HRs to play 1B, as long as they aren’t total slap hitters, and as long as they post very good OBPs, good plate discipline, and display enough “clutch ability” to drive runs in.
And to that end, there’s a place for Matt Hague on the 2012 BD prospects list. And let’s not lose sight of the fact that we’re rapidly approaching 30th place on the list. A lot of the really high ceiling guys, who haven’t had a chance yet to post results, already have their places in the top 20. As they should.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 25, 2012 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
empty BA
Based on minor league numbers, do you think Josh Harrison is a better or worse prospect than Matt Hague? Hague walks and Ks slightly more and has been more consistent year-to-year. He’s also two years older and a 1B instead of a 2B/3B.Otherwise, their minor league performance has been remarkably similar. I don’t see much reason to suspect that Hague will be any better than Harrison, and I don’t think Harrison’s any good.
I don't think Harrison is a good enough hitter to start at 3B for a contender....
But I think he’d be fine at 2B. I thought Harrison actually did pretty well, last season, for being thrown to the wolves like he was, after 2 months at AAA. And given a bit more seasoning, Harrison will be fine, as a MIF. He needs either to walk more, or not K as much, at the MLB level. But there’s nothing in his minor league numbers to indicate that his K/BB rate wouldn’t improve at the MLB level, given time.
Maybe it’s me. Maybe I have a soft spot for fireplug type players, who only want to beat you, and aren’t fussy about how they do it. I know I was impressed with Harrison’s 3B defense last year, even though he made 6 errors there.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 25, 2012 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
Could Josh Harrison start at 1B for any team at all, though? Because that’s the relevant question. Matt Hague is an older version of Josh Harrison who can’t play middle infield.
I think Hague will prove to be a bit better hitter than Harrison.
Which, I guess, is the root of our disagreement. I think Hague has a bit more gap power than Harrison. You plainly don’t.
I also think Hague has a bit more “clutch-ability”. Low HR totals or not, I think Hague is the type of player you could plug into the 3-hole of a batting order, once he’s established. And he’d be able to drive in 80-100 a year.
I look at Hague as more of a Freddy Sanchez-type hitter, than a Josh Harrison-type. I don’t think Hague will win any batting titles, but I won’t be surprised if he’ll hit .280+, and smack enough doubles to be interesting, given the chance.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 26, 2012 4:10 AM EST up reply actions
Why do you think Hague has more power than Harrison? Harrison’s career ISO is only .020 lower than Hague’s, and his AAA ISO last year was almost dead even. And he’s almost two full years younger than Hague. Not that Harrison projects to hit for any power, ever, but I don’t see any reason to think that Hague will either.
Call it a hunch. I like Hague. I like the fact that he’s yet to be overwhelmed. I think he’ll be fine.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 27, 2012 2:39 AM EST up reply actions
DMac
Does it really matter to you that DMac “has found a niche in the Pirates bullpen?” He’s completely interchangeable with half a dozen other guys in the organization right now. He might not even make the team out of ST, as Hanrahan, Meek, Resop, and Grilli are guaranteed spots and DCutch is competing with Watson, Moskos, Leroux, Hughes, Correia/Lincoln, and a few other guys for the last three spots. In other words, McCutchen has only the slimmest possible value to the organization. Sure, he didn’t wash out completely, but he’s only slightly more valuable than those guys that did. Why is that valuable to you? Wouldn’t you rather have one Mel Rojas, who could end up an above-average starting CF, than ten Daniel McCutchens (or Matt Hagues or Josh Harrisons or Brock Holts or)?
Do I think DMac has a lot of value as basically a fungible middle reliver?
Of course not.
Do I think DMac has more value than Tim Alderson, Victor Black, and Brian Friday, to name 3 guys who got voted on to that poll I was talking about ahead of him?
Yep.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 25, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
okay
That makes sense. But do you think DCutch has more value than Mel Rojas? Or Tyler Glasnow? Sure, he’s more valuable than no-upside guys who aren’t in the majors, but is he more valuable than high-upside guys who might not make the majors? That’s the question. I don’t see how a fungible middle reliever (or a guy who’s very unlikely to be more than a fungible middle reliever or a 4A hitter) can be more valuable than a guy who could be an above-average regular, even if the chances of the latter guy reaching his upside are very small.
As with the Mercer discussions, though, I don’t think the upside vs. present value thing is the real sticking point. Judging by your mentioning Casey Kotchman and Sean Casey, I take it that you think Hague can be a starting-caliber 1B. So the real issue is whether or not you’re right about that.
by epoc on Jan 25, 2012 11:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well, let's not compare apples to oranges.
I think the more relavent question is: Do I think Bryan Morris or Jared Hughes has more value than Rojas, or Glasnow? And the answer is yes.
Both Morris’ and Hughes’ futures are in the bullpen. But the odds are pretty good that they’re both going to be in the Pirates bullpen, at some point. Either after this season’s trading deadline, or next season.
(If neither one is traded betwen now and then, that is.)
Whereas Rojas needs to translate some of that potential into production. And soon. And I guess we’ll see how Glasnow does this year, in the GCL.
I guess I place more value on established AAA guys, who are a phone call away from the Pirates, than I do on higher-ceiling guys, who are years away.
To me, there’s too many variables between the GCL Pirates, or the State College Spikes, or the West Virginia Power, and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Too many things can, and do, go wrong. Too many times.
Unless we’re talking about sure-fire, can’t miss guys, like Taillon, or Cole.
But that’s just me. And my personal opinion. If you value higher ceilings more, even if the higher ceiling guys aren’t even in full-season ball yet, or barely in full-season ball, then you’re certainly entitled to your opinion.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 26, 2012 4:46 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t value "potential" or "ceiling" or "tools" so much until they begin to translate into performance. Seen too many bad apples out of THAT barrel.
And out of the “good AAA performance, useless MLB player” barrel, you could pick John Bowker, Lastings Milledge, Brandon Wood, Steve Pearce, Josh Harrison, etc., etc. There are no guarantees either way. At least with guys who have standout tools, you have the potential for something special. With a guy like Hague, all you’ve got is the 10% chance he can somehow outperform Josh Harrison.
I agree to some extent..... certainly with the notion that there are no guarantees.
I’ve already posted that the criteria I value are skewed toward performance….. and performance at the upper levels.
Personally, I believe Hague has a much higher than 10% probability that he could outperform Josh Harrison with the bat. At this point, based on what I’ve seen of Harrison on defense, I would not assign him any kind of premium over Hague just because he plays 2B and 3B (not so well). Hey….. I admire Harrison’s attitude and his leave-it-all-on-the-field style of play, but his defense won’t keep him on the team. (And I believe Hague was drafted as a 3B.)
It’s clear that you place higher value on potential/ceiling/tools than I do….. and that’s OK. Different criteria inevitably lead to different choices. I believe Hague could be a decent major league hitter….. and you don’t….. and that’s OK.
Finally, at this point, we’re not comparing Hague to Harrison, Bowker, Milledge, etc. We ARE comparing him to guys like Rojas, Cabrera, Holt, Glasnow, Miles, etc…… and Curry has already made the community list. On my personal top 30 list, I have Hague ahead of all of those guys….. because he has performed consistently and well at every level, including AAA. (I have Phillip Irwin ahead of all those guys, as well.)
First Base
Say there are no more signings for the first base job. Rank the top 3 players you would platoon with Jones at first base?
Navarro?
Really? I’m totally with you on McGehee and Evans but I would assume Hague gets a shot over Navarro who has never played the position and doesn’t hit as well as MH (that’s not saying much either).
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 25, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
Come on, Epoc.
I get that you have some irrational hatred for Matt Hague. Maybe he ran over you dog, or something. But Navarro at #3?
I mean it isn’t like I have some insane love for Hague, and in fact, my response to George’s question would be:
1) Evans
2) McGehee
3) Hague
1B is the easiest position on the diamond to learn. But a player needs at least a sliver of experience there, in order to function at the MLB level.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 25, 2012 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
lol
My hatred for Hague is entirely rational.
I was assuming that Navarro could be given some time to become acquainted with the position. He’s an infielder already, so it really wouldn’t take him all that long to prepare. But yeah, if you’re asking who I’d start tomorrow between Hague and Navarro, I’d take Hague because he’s got experience at the spot.
Not a Hague fan
But the team felt he worth a 40 man spot, so apparently they feel he’s some kind of prospect.
by maguro on Jan 25, 2012 5:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Honestly
I didn’t want to vote for Rojas. I was trying to come up with a reason that somebody else was just head and shoulders above him. I don’t like prospects who are all tools and no production and, to this point, Rojas has NO production. Having said that, he is talented and he got better in the second half next year. He is running out of time on the “he’s still young enough that he can get better,” becasue while he is young, he’s also still stuck in the low minors so he has a long way to go. Rojas did get my vote, but I’m not especially confident about it.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 25, 2012 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Glad to see Gonzalez getting a little love.
At this point, he’s pretty much the only guy I can think of who has experienced a good bit of success at age-appropriate MiL levels.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
by wg1of5 on Jan 25, 2012 10:53 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I couldn't agree more
The kid hits like a champ and his glove is trending upward, even if, as Pirates Prospects theorizes, he’ll probably move to 2nd eventually.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Brock Holt
career .303/.368/.414 hitter in the MI with good speed, ok walk rates and good K rates. He doesn’t possess much over the fence power but he did pop 30 doubles and 9 triples last season. He wasn’t great overall in 2011 but it was hardly a hiccup (.743 OPS). He will be nearly 24 to start the season so I sure hope we find PT for him in Indy this year.
AA to start
I would not be surprised to see Holt back in Altoona. If D’Arnaud, Mercer, and Harrison all are back in AAA, which it kind of looks like they will, then Holt will probably be in AA again simply so he can get ABs. I would imagine that he will be Indy before the year is over, but I bet he starts in Altoona.
by SojourningPirate on Jan 25, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
To me, if it came down to giving Holt or Harrison getting PT in AAA, it would be Holt without question. My IF lineup at Indy would be (3B-1B) Mercer, d’Arnaud, Holt, Hague. The only thing that would change that for me would be having to park Pedro back down there if he flounders to start the season.
Eh.
I don’t think he had the kind of performance last year to where he’s a shoe-in for Indy to start this season (especially given the AAA infield depth that SojourningPirate enumerated). That said, though, he’s only behind Gonzalez for me at this point, so I’ll be voting for him soon.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
Meh.
I can’t see him contributing much at the ML level; guys with that low of a K/9 rate just don’t have success in the bigs. If we’re talking about high-minors starting pitching, it’s got to be either Colla or Irwin at this point, IMO.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
I voted
for Rojas, but I think it’s high time Harold Ramirez gets some press. He got 7 figures for a reason people!
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 25, 2012 6:59 PM EST reply actions
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