Are Pirates In The Market For ... Anyone?
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 27, 2012 2:43 AM EST
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Here are the details on Jeff Francis' minor-league deal with the Reds:
Francis will earn a base salary of $1.5 million if he makes the Reds' big league roster, the source said. The deal includes performance bonuses based on starts that could increase his total payout to $3.25 million.
Francis also has the ability to opt out of the contract on March 28, before the end of spring training.
That's a bargain, frankly. In situations like this, I've sometimes felt a little exasperated by people who say, 'Why didn't the Pirates get in on that?' Well, maybe they did; maybe Francis, for whatever reason, just doesn't want to come to Pittsburgh. Or maybe the Pirates simply feel that Francis isn't very good. That's a point of view to which I could be somewhat sympathetic if the Bucs had even a basic level of rotation depth. But as this point, any pitcher who can throw 180 innings without getting shelled is one the Pirates should consider, especially when he can be had for just a couple million bucks.
And there's this, too: I don't hear much evidence the Pirates have much interest in anyone at this point. Now, maybe that doesn't mean anything -- maybe the Bucs are secretly still working hard at making significant upgrades to the big-league roster, and none of that has been reported. That happens sometimes. But usually when there's fire, there's smoke, and right now, I don't see any.
That's why, when I saw the Edwin Jackson "mystery team" thread go up, I had to chuckle. There's a "mystery team" interested in Edwin Jackson! Let's put aside how silly and empty the reports of "mystery teams" are in the first place. (Could it be my team?! I don't know, there's a 1-in-30 chance!) Given all the evidence -- particularly the absence of any serious reporting connecting the Pirates to Jackson, and the fact that the Pirates never, ever sign free agents as good as Jackson -- is there any reason whatsoever to think the Pirates are this "mystery team"? The whole thing is like a dysfunctional game of Clue, where there may not have been any crime committed in the first place, and if there was, you know it wasn't Colonel Mustard who did it, because the dog ate that card years ago.
The complete absence of action out there right now suggests the Pirates like their team right now, or at least that they've come to terms with it. You can, of course, make the argument that the Bucs weren't going to contend in 2012 anyway, and that therefore, the water-treading the Pirates have done this offseason isn't some great tragedy. But it's still disappointing.
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I've been preaching all offseason...
That the Pirates are about 200 innings short of having enough starting pitching depth to get through the 2012 season. Now, those 200 innings have got to be picked up by somebody. I mean, the only alternative is forfiet games.
There’s still 23 days until pitchers and catchers report to ST. something can still happen. Although, the odds of Huntington picking up a veteran starter decrease daily.
So, if Huntngton is not going to fill the void in the Pirates starting pitching depth externally, the only other option is, of course, internally.
So, let’s look at our internal options:
Jeff Locke
Rudy Owens
Justin Wilson
Shairon Martis
Jo-Jo Reyes
That’s it. That’s all she wrote. Kyle McPherson has yet to throw pitch one in AAA, and I’ve already used Bedard, Morton, McDonald, Correia, Karstens, and Lincoln to arrive at the Pirates being light 200 innings.
And I’ve gotta tell ya, I’m not impressed with the current internal options. Not even a little bit.
AFAIAC, the less starts Jo-Jo Reyes makes in a Pirates uniform, the better.
Wilson simply walks too many to survive as an MLB starter, and his future is probably in the bullpen – where he can air it out a little more.
None of us knows what kind of shape Owens’ shoulder is in. Ideally, you’d like to see him have an injury-free 2012 in Indy, before you even thought about promoting him.
Martis is a bounce-back candidate. And might be the best internal option – provided he can learn control, at the MLB level.
Locke might help fill the void. But his stuff isn’t overpowering, and he’s going to take his lumps, until he’s established. And while him taking his lumps might be beneficial in the long run, it isn’t going to be pretty to watch, while it’s happening.
So, I’m confused. One the one hand, Huntington spent just under $20M this offseason, plugging holes. And on the other hand, he has a gaping hole in the starting pitching depth, that he doesn’t seem interested in filling.
This seems about right
I’d say 200 innings shy is a touch pessimistic, but we’re almost certainly short 100 IP, and very likely 150 IP. And yeah, that’s a lot to give to the 5 guys you list.
Sigh.
If you count on 6 IP per start
Using Bill James Projections, we are about 135 Innings short.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
And that was with a long stretch where he went 7+ every game. It’s doubtful whether he can continue to pitch that well.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
Literally using the back of an envelope
I got us to 900 IP from Moose’s 6: 150 from Morton, 70 from Bedard, and an average of 170 from the other 4.
Which I now see is too optimistic – only Morton and McDonald reached that last year (Karstens was at 5.96 IP/GS, btw). But anyway, even those optimistic numbers leave us 75 IP short of 162 6-IP starts.
So yeah, we’re 135+ IP short even using modestly optimistic IP numbers. And to WTM’s point, Karstens, Lincoln, and Morton all pitched (per xFIP-) like just below average 3rd starters in 2011; McDonald and Correia were below average 4th SPs (I’m going on an ERA+ assumption of 125/110/97/87/75 by slot, and then flipping to use xFIP-). Morton and Bedard are the only two with a real chance at reaching average #2 SP production (McDonald could break out, but I’m calling that a long shot), and neither one will be giving us 170 IP.
Odds are we’ll see something like:
200 IP of ~#2 production
330 IP of ~#3 production
350 IP of #4/5 production
100 IP of #5 or worse production
486 IP from the bullpen – is that a sustainable number? It’s actually fewer than last year.
486 IP from the bullpen – is that a sustainable number?
Given your math, it’d have to be, unless you plan to throw in a bunch of forfeits/rainouts.
Probably, yeah.
It did last year.
[I’m not actually convinced that we have a “strong BP”, but I’m assuming it to be true for the purpose of this discussion.]
How I'd characterize it
is that we have the pieces to have a strong BP for ~400 IP, and that every inning beyond that either goes to less effective personnel or reduces the effectiveness of our best personnel.
We clearly don’t have any kind of shutdown bullpen, but there are very few guys in there who make me cringe – it’s ~6 guys who are reasonably likely to get the job done in any given appearance.
didnt mcdonald get better as the year went along?
thats a good sign at least.
by white angus on Jan 27, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
He was up and down
He dominated in May (9.09 K/9 2.6 BB/9, 3.37 FIP) and July (10.05 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 3.76 FIP) but was horrible in April (5.47 K/9, 5.84 BB/9, 6.63 FIP) and pretty mediocre the other months.
So he did improve from April to May, peaked in July and then wound down as the season went along. Like the team as a whole, really.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
April probably can be discounted. He clearly wasn’t ready for the season, as NH has acknowledged, after basically missing the exhibition season. After that, yeah, he was just up and down, although on the whole he had a good year after those first four starts. His IP/start was up and down along with the overall quality, with his best months again being May and August. Even in those months he only lasted about six IP per start. I think it’s a stretch to suppose he might average more than five and a fraction.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
I actually used 6 1/3 innings per start.
Which gave me 1000 innings needed, total. It just seemed to be a cleaner number to work from.
That, and 6 innings/start x 31 starts is 186 innings, for a starter that pitches the whole season. It seemed a tad low to me, since 63 pitchers exceeded 186 innings in MLB, last season.
Whereas 6 1/3 innings/start x 31 starts is 196 innings. Which is a lot closer to what you’d ideally want a SP to pitch, for a season.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 27, 2012 10:54 PM EST up reply actions
This is obviously why
So many people advocated trying to re-acquire Maholm. We all know they are very unlikely to get anybody good, but they really need somebody. There was such excitement around this team last year. I feel like somebody let all the air out of the balloon this off season.
I don't see why this is disappointing
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 27, 2012 5:57 AM EST via mobile reply actions
It’s not THAT disappointing. However, I think it’s very possible that Francis would have been Pittsburgh’s 3rd- or 4th-best starter in 2012, and it’s disappointing that NH apparently didn’t make an effort to acquire him. But, you’re right, it’s not the end of the world — perhaps the difference between 75 and 72 wins.
It's not like Francis is all that healthy on a historical basis.
He hasn’t gone over 200 innings since 2007, and didn’t pitch in 2009. He only pitched 104 in 2010. He has had declining fastball velocity, especially in 2011. I’m not interested in spending money on him, I’d rather see what we have in someone like Rudy Owens.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I’d like to see a prospect-heavy rotation, too. But it’s not going to happen. No matter how Rudy and Jeff Locke look this spring, they are not going to be in the April rotation unless there’s a bunch of March injuries.
Francis could have given the Pirates 3 or 4 decent months before yielding to whoever steps up in Triple-A.
Francis probably sees more chances of winning with the Reds
and he does have an out clause if he doesnt make the roster.
Well said, Charlie
The totality of the circumstances continues to suggest poor management, no desire to win, or financial insufficiency of ownership. As I’ve posted many times last off season and this off season, poor management is looming as the mostly likely cause.
There continues to be an insufficiency at talent assessment and/or an inability to shift from tear down and stockpile the minors mode to build a decent big league team mode. I hope I’m wrong, but the lack of ingenuity and aggressiveness is stunning.
Good day.
Would signing Jeff Francis have changed your view?? Haha!!
Look, let’s be a bit reasonable here. The Pirates will almost NEVER, be a player for the types of free agents in the off-season that will drastically alter the team and be the types of signings that make headlines. I don’t think this is a bad thing, either. But, I think too many people get their hopes up about some huge off-season move. $10 mill/year+ free agent signings just won’t happen.
The Pirates will always use the off-season to plug holes and stabilize, but they can ill-afford to spend huge money on a big name for a full year. Especially, when you’re talking about doing so just to make themselves go from below-average to average.
The 3 biggest keys for the Pirates, as far as building a talented team are drafting/development, trades and the Trade Deadline.
Even in the “glory days” of the Pirates, the Zane Smiths of the world came to the team in mid-season trades.
The biggest names you will ever see the Pirates acquire from the outside will be the Trade Deadline.
But, I’m not saying that in a bad way. The Pirates won’t pay a guy $20m for a full year (when it’s uncertain whether they will win or not), but they would very likely take on the remaining $10m on a $20m guy at the trade deadline when they feel they are in a race.
I’m not sure why people get their hopes up or get upset when the Pirates don’t make big off-season moves.
But for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the most important months will ALWAYS be June (Draft) and July (Trading Deadline) for acquiring players, Not December and January.
And I think that’s a good thing.
But
The one time you can get cheap MLB talent is now. Even the Jeff Francises of the world cost you at the deadline. Now he’s available for essentially pocket change. And if he fills a hole, keeps us from running JVB-grade MiLers out there, and gains us a few wins, that’s actually a good thing.
If Locke, Owens, or anybody else is actually good enough to be a valuable MLB starter, they won’t be blocked by the likes of Jeff Francis. That’s what’s so insane about the whole “Let’s not acquire anyone with talent, instead let’s throw unprepared guys out and see what they do” mindset. McLouth didn’t block McCutchen. Diaz didn’t block Presley. Hell, even in the bad old days, Randa didn’t block Sanchez.
In ‘09 and ’10, there was no reason to fill holes, because we had lots of lottery tickets, and the question was which would pay off (in the event: none). But we’re not in that stage anymore. Locke, Owens, et al aren’t a bunch of long shots that we acquired and we need to figure out how to handle. They’re normal prospects advancing at a normal pace, and either they’ll take IP away from mediocrities like Karstens (or sub-mediocrities like Correia), or they’re just mediocre themselves, and it doesn’t much matter.
Here are the possible outcomes, if we were to sign a Francis-like SP:
He’s awesome, no one in AAA is ready, and we win a few more games on the cheap. Yay.
He’s awesome, but so is Locke; Correia goes, we win a few more games. Yay.
He’s awesome, but so are Locke and Correia; Francis or Correia get traded, Locke comes up, we win a few more games. Yay.
He’s fine, no one in AAA is ready, and we don’t need to run Jo-Jo out there. Phew.
He’s fine, Locke is ready, he or Correia go. Nice.
He sucks, no one in AAA is ready, we have the exact same outcome that we’re on track for now. Boo.
He sucks, Locke steps up. Nice.
So the only possible bad outcome here (unless you’re very worried about Nutting’s wallet) is one that basically duplicates the preferred outcome of people who don’t want to sign Francis (or similar guys). What am I missing?
by JRoth95 on Jan 27, 2012 10:14 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Well, I see this outcome as possible:
He’s OK in spring training, we cut Correia because we don’t have room for them both, Francis sucks, we have to run Jo-Jo out there. Boo.
Perhaps no more likely than the same scenario playing out with Correia sucking, but I don’t see Francis as giving us that much more of a cushion between Jo-Jo and the rotation if we have to put him in the majors.
(Part of this is that I think Correia is above replacement. FIP has him as replacement-level, but the pitchers who are comparable to him in other metrics are above-replacement. So dumping him has an opportunity cost.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 27, 2012 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
I was wondering
It’s been discussed before: what happens if Correia doesn’t make the 25-man? DFA? Does he clear waivers? IIRC, it’s not impossible to sneak guys through waivers at the end of ST, because a ton of guys are moving through.
i think its moot because Correia WILL make the 25 man
they are not going to just let $4MM sit there and not pitch. they are going to hope he pitches like he did the first 2 months of last season and hopefully get something in return
by white angus on Jan 27, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
They cut bait with Vazquez
when it was clear he was unnecessary.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
Vazquez was never a starter, Correia despite what anyone here says about him, is/was a key to our team
Correia will get a spot in the rotation.
by white angus on Jan 27, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
Pfrobably
but I don’t think that is gospel. If some one else shows they are ready, Correia will be gone
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 11:58 AM EST up reply actions
Excellent post
Once again we continue to agree as well as be smart, handsome and devilishly charming.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Good post.
But I actually am worried about Nutting’s wallet. I’d only want to bring in somebody for a close to MLB minimum contract because the very few starters left on the market above that talent level have no interest in signing with the Pirates. I’d rather save the money and put it towards a McCutchen extension then win 1 or 2 more games than Rudy Owens/Jeff Locke/whoever.
On top of that, Owens and Locke are getting towards the age where we need to figure out exactly what it is we have in each of them. Why not find that out this year when the stakes are lower than 2013/2014/2015?
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Thanks
I didn’t want that parenthetical to get too long, but my point about his wallet was/is that $1.5M only hurts his wallet – it has no (meaningful) impact on any organizational decisions – even on our little payroll, it’s 3%.
I’m never one to say that Nutting is too poor to be an ML owner – either the region can sustain a team or it can’t – but if little numbers like this are affecting roster decisions, then maybe he is too poor. IMO pretty much any decision under $2M should be wholly at the GM’s discretion, and any move under $5M should be primarily at his discretion (I understand if Nutting would like to be informed in advance if his $4M investment in Correia is being chucked). If you can’t do that, then A. you don’t have enough money to play at this table and/or B. you don’t trust your GM enough.
Also if any big ticket signings were on the horizon for this year, then I’d be more sympathetic – maybe another $1.5M (plus $2M incentive) gets Edwin Jackson or Derek Lee to sign here. BUt that’s clearly not the case. I see no evidence that Cutch gets extended this year. And I don’t think that $1.5M now means anything next winter, especially since that $1.5M should, in theory, make us a better, and thus more profitable, team.
From the point of view of us as fans, Nutting is too poor to be a MLB owner.
But from the actually financial reality of the situation, he is not too poor to be the owner. As you mentioned its a lot more about the region and city than it is about the owner’s wealth. There are no owners in the league who buy a baseball team in order to win games, literally zero. Anyone who believes that is completely fooling themselves. That shouldn’t depress fans, that is just the reality. If you can you can win games and make money at the same time that is excellent, but no owner buys a team to win games if it means losing money every single year, even if its a small amout annually, no matter how much the fans may want that to be the case.
In terms of McCutchen, there is a close to 0% chance we will see evidence of the extension getting done ahead of time. We won’t know until after the fact, and the negotiations are highly likely to be very secretive. The bottom line is instead of going into a room without knowing the chances of working out a deal with X money to give McCutchen, I’d rather go in with X+$1.5 MM and win 0-2 less games in 2012, all while finding out more about Lincoln, Owens, Locke, Martis, maybe McPherson, and anyone else who breaks out.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
My take isn’t that an owner should be spending out of pocket to field a winner (although, by the same token, he shouldn’t be expecting a 5-10% ROI every year – the ROI comes from resale and/or windfalls in winning years), but that owners need to have enough cash to even out the curve – in good years you make surplus, in bad years there’s a deficit. If you can’t ever afford not to make money, then you’re going to end up making shortsighted decisions, because your sights are, literally, short – the 2012 club needs to profit in FY12, and nothing long term can supersede that.
And yeah, if $1.5M to make the 2012 team better means that there aren’t $1.5M available to do something as critical to the team’s future as signing Cutch, then Nutting doesn’t have enough $$, while other owners (Angels, Tigers) do.
Could it be my team?! I don't know, there's a 1-in-30 chance!
I think your math is a little off there. You forgot about the phantom team that exists only in Boras’ head, as discussed in the other thread. As for your Clue reference, literary genius. I enjoyed it.
Your larger point is something that concerns me though. While I’m not entirely sure Jeff Francis is the answer I’m look for in this question, I certainly don’t need a blank, slack-jaw stare either, and I feel like that’s what we’re getting here. NH seems content to enter the season with the options he has, which I don’t necessarily have qualms about (I didn’t think this team was going to be good, may as well see what we have) but I do have some concern that there are enough bodies that can physically throw a baseball, as Moose points out.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
there are still a bunch of MLB players still unsigned as of today.
still could see 1 or 2 more players aquired because NH is looking for a cheap deal.
sure, Francis was available on the cheap. maybe he and Hurdle didnt get along?
maybe the team sees Locke/Owens as a better option than Francis?
i’d rather see the team stand pat than to dish out a 5 year deal for Jackson.
A multi-year deal for Jackson
I’d love to see a Jackson signing for two reasons
1) While he’s a solid #2 on most staffs that aren’t loaded ala Philly or Anaheim, he’d immediately be the Bucs #1-with-a-bullet
2) Having Jackson for, say, 4 years with a team option for a 5th would not only help out in the short term, but would bolster the staff and provide a solid veteran anchor for when Cole and Taillon arrive in the 2013-2015 window. This speaks to another point, which is that it’s getting very close to the time when the future is actually here, if that makes sense.
Obviously, it’ll never happen: even if the Pirates had the money/interest, Boras would doubtless steer him away from here. But, it’d be an excellent move in theory.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
If we're willing to pay it
I see a 4 year contract about 4/56 range. Not sure if the Pirates are willing to go there.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
Much as I like EJax's game...
…I’m not sure I’d be willing to go that high. 4/48-50 would be my limit.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
My rough calcs
put 4-50 at the low end. Have to consider him as a worse pitcher than his past two years. Link.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly.
www.drstrangeglove.com
by nycbucsfan on Jan 27, 2012 10:17 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
How do they do it?
If things stay about the way they are now, we are still looking at one of the lowest payrolls in all of the MLs. I agree with fiscal responsibility, but there has to be some kind of sign of improving the team and increasing payroll. Right now, we are just shuffling contracts every year. This team is absolutely terrified of taking any kind of financial risk.
I hope that I am proven wrong over the next three weeks.
I don't know that this Jeff Francis contract is the answer
I’d love to have Francis on a minor-league contract, but this isn’t that, really. It’s more of an option to sign him to a major-league contract. Which basically either forces us to keep Lincoln in the minors and use Correia as the swingman/fifth starter until Morton returns (and Morton may be back before we need a fifth starter), or makes us dump Correia, in which case we haven’t improved our starting depth at all.
I’d really like the Pirates to sign someone who significantly improves the major-league rotation, and I’d like them to sign some good seventh and eighth starters that they can keep at Indy so we don’t have to worry about Jo-Jo Reyes getting starts. But I’m not sure that Francis fills either of these answers, on this contract.
This isn’t to say that I’m at all pleased with the passive approach NH seems to have taken since the winter meetings, and that I don’t share BrianO’s concern about the payroll — aren’t they supposed to be able to add a lot more. It would be great to have Maholm back at anything near his contract with the Cubs, and it feels like we’re missing an opportunity by not taking advantage of a depressed market for mid-tier FAs.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 27, 2012 9:05 AM EST reply actions
I’d like to see a minor league contract and NRI for Micah Owings. He’s about as good as rotation depth gets, at this point in the market.
Not to mention PH
Seriously.
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
No, we need to find a good-fielding SS with a career .400 OPS as a PH to serve as our main bat off the bench. That’s what I’ve learned over the last twelve years.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
That's clearly the best way of going about it!
That’s true, why have someone who can hit?
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
Gustavo Nunez called...
says you hurt his feelings, as he is perfectly capable of putting up a. 400 OPS.
www.drstrangeglove.com
by nycbucsfan on Jan 27, 2012 9:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Seeing a Nunez PH is going to bring back some bad memories.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 27, 2012 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He really doesn't need to be good fielding, either.
He merely needs to exist and take up a roster spot.
I'll admit being disappointed
every time I see a guy that I wanted either sign or be traded for less than I would have expected and not even see the Pirates linked to the conversation. It’s actually a pretty substantial list too: Wei-Yin Chen, Maholm, Francis (meh), Ramon Hernandez, Rizzo, Lowrie, Scutaro, Betemit. Now I’m not saying I really wanted all of those guys but you could at least make a case that the Pirates could have afforded all of them and that the 2012 roster would have been better (and cheaper) with Chen, Maholm, Hernandez, Rizzo, Lowrie and Betemit than Bedard, Barmes, Barajas, McGehee, McLouth.
Having said that, it’s at least conceivable that the team could be saving its money to try and make a splash on one of the higher profile FA’s like Cespedes, Oswalt, Soler, and E-Jax. I’ll admit that it’s not especially likely but I am trying to force myself to wait until all of the offseason dominoes fall before casting judgement. When everybody signs and the Pirates still have this roster with a hole in the rotation then I’ll be pissed that they seemed to let opportunities go by. Until then, I’m will to wait and see, even if I don’t really expect to see much.
You have more patience than me
I agree with many of your sentiments…my capacity for patience was just exhausted earlier than yours :)
I just don’t see any of those potential remaining moves happening outside of perhaps sneaking in and grabbing Soler while everyone is focused on Cespedes.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
frankly, I don't see Francis as a big miss
If the Pirates aren’t going to have him on the 25 man to start the season, there’s a good chance room in AAA will be v limited, and Francis probably wanted an out-clause in any case.
I mean, I expect Francis might be an improvement over Correia in 2012, but I’m not convinced.
Not just about Francis
Somewhere in this thread is a list of more than a half dozen SPs who could have been had cheaply and who are at least even odds to be better than Correia. As Charlie says, you can argue against any given one as a good match, but when none have been signed (and really, none have even been linked to the Pirates) it seems pretty clear that NH decided to stand pat.
the problem is
“none have been linked to the Pirates”
I just have a hard time getting worked up over that. Based on earlier deadlines, it seems to me that they run a pretty tight ship in terms of info coming out of the FO. So, I don’t buy the NH decided to stand pat based on this.
I am looking at the tracker to see what we’ve missed. I’d have been happy to have Capuano, Chen was linked to the Pirates (IIRC), maybe Kevin Millwood, and maybe Iwakuma. Did I miss someone?
The lack of a rumor
doesn’t really bother me either because I try to take those rumors with a grain of salt. The Pirates were linked to Wei-Yin Chen early on but he seemingly went to Baltimore without much of a fight. We were supposed to have a deal done with Wilson Betemit but he’ll be playing in the Inner Harbor too. On the other hand, there was no mention that the Pirates would get Erik Bedard and we landed him.
So who really knows what will happen. Here is a report from three weeks ago that has the Pirates interested in Cespedes. Would people still be mad about Jeff Francis if we signed him? There was also this from late December listing the Pirates as a “darkhorse” for Jackson if he dropped his asking price, which he has. None of this is to say that the Pirates will do any of these things but the lack of a rumor from MLBTR or Twitter doesn’t eliminate the possibility. Like I said above, I’m gonna wait until all of the players fall into place and then I’ll evaluate the Pirates offseason. As of now, I am not especially pleased and I am nervous that I’m going to feel the same way when it’s all said and done. I am hoping the team does something to change this and, at least for now, I don’t think we can say that’s impossible.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 27, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
you're right, of course
the only point I was making was that even if we’d signed Francis, it wouldn’t change my evaluation of the offseason much. (It could still turn out to be a big move at the end of the year, if Francis has a dead cat bounce, and pitches like a #1 for half a year.)
I mean, it’s fair to not be happy with the Pirates offseason in that they aren’t substantially different from last year’s team yet— maybe a bit more upside but thats about it. But if you are unhappy, then having gotten a Francis shouldnt change that too much.
Re: Betemit, I think the Navarro deal might have had something to do with it.
this might be true too
i dont remember the timeline of those moves v clearly
by BurgherKing on Jan 28, 2012 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
I am hoping the team does something to change this and, at least for now, I don’t think we can say that’s impossible.
No, it’s not impossible. And there is still over 3 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. Much can change.
But with each passing day, the odds of a notable change decreases. And when Huntington is signing guys like Daniel Cabrera, that’s not a good sign that we’re going to see any notable change, anytime soon.
Say what you will about Jeff Francis. Or even Zach Duke. But at least they pitched, last year.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 27, 2012 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'd argue
that with each passing day the chances of their landing a guy like EJax or Soler increases. /other teams are also filling out their roster and the longer they go unsigned the lower their demands get. We all know how much the Pirates like lowered demands…
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 28, 2012 12:32 AM EST up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong
But I don’t think Soler is even FA eligible, yet. I know he’s in the DR, with Cespedes. And I know Cespedes just recently accumulated enough residency in the DR, to declare himself a DR citizen, and declare free agency. But I haven’t heard a thing about Soler establishing enough DR residency, to declare himself a DR citizen, yet. You’d think that sort of thing would be trumpeted on MLBTR, when it happens.
So, it seems to me that the lack of activity on Soler’s front is due to teams being unable to place an offer, yet. I know he’s got a lot of interest. Probably more interest than Cespedes, since Cespedes’ contract demands are through the roof. Which will keep a lot of bidders away.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 29, 2012 6:30 AM EST up reply actions
So tired of seeing the why didn’t NH sign this guy posts. Every time a player comes off the board it happens. Never expected to see one of these out of Charlie.
i do agree with this
most of our roster is pretty set. Unless they are going after clear upgrades at this point (Jackson, Oswalt, maybe Lee), I don’t see the heartburn over the Jeff Francises.
I don't truly understand why
Everyone thinks are pitching will be so terrible? Is this because everyone is banking on injuries and no one putting up numbers like last year??
And also, last year in free agency the Pirates F.O was prepared and did throw Big $ at a free agent starting Pitcher named Jorge De La Rosa, now why this year is so unrealistic that the Pirates wouldn’t do the same or did not do the same? Just curious, Does Neal and CO. Feel that there is no one worth the $ they were prepared to throw at De La Rosa? Quite possibly. They have money to spend because they offered DLee arbitration, but I don’t necessarily want them to spend to just spend.
Maybe they really want Brad Lincoln to have a strong look, I mean he has to be given a shot sometime right? That’s how SP become SP there given a shot, we don’t know how he will truly do unless he is a given a shot. And with the Pirates being a small market team, they need to catch lightning in a bottle like that by giving internal options shots and maybe being surprised. What if Lincoln would put up a season close to what Morton or Karstens did? Why isn’t it possible no one expected it out of them last year.
It's not that I absolutely think the pitching will be terrible...
…it’s that the likelihood it will be is terrifyingly high.
Any pitch Bedard throws could be his last. Morton and Karstens could turn into pumpkins after their great seasons last year. McDonald could collapse instead of improving. Kevin Correia could continue to be, well, Kevin Correia.
If there’s anything the past 2 decades have taught us, it’s that the worst case scenario very often does happen.
That was my objection to letting Maholm get away…you know what you’re getting with Paulie. Right now, the rotation is 5 huge question marks and the guys in Indy to replace them are even moreso. Having some depth and stability would be huge.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I agree on how everything that could go bad has gone bad for the team for a long time
But… It could also go the other way, There is no evidence to support that McDonald would collapse, why? he’s only gotten better the past couple of seasons, Sure Bedard’s last pitch could be his last, same with anybody. I agree Karstens and Morton could turn into pumpkins but I see that more happening in Karstens than Morton, because he’s the only one that lacks the stuff the rest have.
Honestly though what do “you know what you’re getting with Paulie” I see a finesse lefty pitcher with below average stuff, who is one year removed from a 5.10 ERA losing 15 games, opponent batting avg of 303 against him and a WHIP of 1.56. Now last year the ERA improved greatly, but last year was the least amount of innings he has ever thrown and ended the season with a shoulder injury. Now you can say what about Morton’s stats the year before and look what he did, well the fact is Morton’s stuff is far far superior than Maholm’s, Morton with his stuff doesn’t need to depend on hitting his spots with every pitch or depend on getting lucky with having a good a defense around him ( Yes I know his Ground ball ratio was very high last year, but I’m just talking about a pitcher with above average stuff compared to someone with below avg).
What I’m trying to say is I see Maholm turning into the pumpkin the most based off of pure stuff alone, say Maholm’s shoulder injury cause him to have some control problems this year, imagine him not hitting his spots and leaving everything up with his soft tossing stuff? It would be very ugly and everyone would be screaming why would you resign him.
Its pretty much a moot point until we see what happens this year, basically Neal is banking on his SP’s having just as good or better years this year, if they do then year the Pirates will probably contend this year, If they don’t they will tank like everyone expects them too, and the Pirates will be replacing them in the next two years with Cole, Taillon, McPherson, etc.
I agree on how everything that could go bad has gone bad for the team for a long time But… It could also go the other way,
The problem is that we’re currently in a position where we need for everything to go right, or else we have a serious problem.
I see a finesse lefty pitcher with below average stuff, who is one year removed from a 5.10 ERA losing 15 games, opponent batting avg of 303 against him and a WHIP of 1.56.
That’s three different ways of saying the same thing. He got very little defensive support, which led to an elevated hit rate, and more runs allowed than his peripheral statistics would have suggested.
And of course, pitcher wins are meaningless.
You keep saying that,
but pitcher losses aren’t meaningless. We keep getting 90-100 of them and I’d really rather we quit it. I’d really rather we had 90 wins — pitcher wins, shortstop wins, fourth outfielder wins, I don’t freaking care.
You keep saying that, but pitcher losses aren’t meaningless. We keep getting 90-100 of them and I’d really rather we quit it.
Team losses are meaningful, but pitcher losses are not. It doesn’t matter one bit whether Maholm went 10-15 or 10-10 with five extra losses going to relievers instead.
Evaluate individual players with statistics that express the quality of the individual player’s performance, and evaluate the team with statistics that express the quality of the team’s performance. This isn’t rocket science.
I know what you're saying, and I'm goading you some, BUT
knowing nothing else, would you rather have a guy in your rotation with a career record of 200-100 or 100-200? Wins don’t tell you much but they tell you SOMEthing. They’re not meaningless. No statistic is meaningless. There are good stats and better stats and not-so-good stats. But you can derive some meaning from all of them.
Besides, who starts every play with the ball in his hand, and thus has control of where it goes on its way to the plate? Slider at the knees on the corner or BP fastball down the pipe? The guy who can throw the first pitch a lot is going to get a lot of W’s. The guy who throws the second is going to get a lot of L’s (but not, hopefully, for long).
I think that over a long enough period of time
the W-L records of pitchers will reflect thier overall effectiveness, but to take great value in a 20-30 point sample set is errant. There is too much variation possible, and much of it is out of the pitcher’s control, further muddling the judgement of a Pitcher’s effectiveness. King Felix won a Cy Young with a 13-12 record, while Sabathia was 21-7 that year. If you are looking at wins as a comparison, they are not even close, Sabathia has 62% more wins that year.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
knowing nothing else, would you rather have a guy in your rotation with a career record of 200-100 or 100-200?
Every other statistic is the same? I’d take the 100-200 guy, because the not-entirely-extinct (and inaccurate) perception of pitcher wins as having value means that he’d probably be cheaper while delivering the exact same performance.
Wins don’t tell you much but they tell you SOMEthing.
They tell you something – and in general, that something is the quality of the offensive support the pitcher received. A useful piece of information if you’re trying to assess the quality of the offense, but not if you’re making decisions about the pitcher.
if a pitcher is still in MLB after losing twice as many games as winning...
shows me that he is a real pitcher, and teams know this.
then again, same is said about the guy who won twice as many.
Yeah.
If you stayed in MLB long enough to get 300 decisions of any sort, you must’ve had a pretty good career.
Subjectively, it looks like this guy (the brother-in-law of Pirates Hall of Famer Fred Clarke!) is the worst MLB pitcher with 200+ losses… and he still managed a 92 ERA+ for his career as a whole. Even got a single Hall of Fame vote back in 1939.
knowing nothing else, I'd rather have the high-win guy
because his other statistics are probably better. But if I know the pitchers’ other stats, that’s what I look at.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 27, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
losing games is
Theres a big difference losing 15 games with 5.10 ERA compared to losing 14 games with a 3.66, the latter is on you and 2nd is on your team with no run support.
You have to admit...
…the likelihood that Bedard’s next pitch will be his last is exponentially greater than it is with the rest of the current rotation.
As for the probablilty of a JMac collapse: his BB/9 was up and K/9 was down compared to 2010 and he managed barely over 5.1 innings per start. At the least, those are danger signs.
I do agree that Morton is the most likely to repeat his solid 2011, but until I see two good seasons in a row from him, I’ll continue to be worried.
As for Paul, based on every season from 2007 forward, you can count on him for 2-3 fWAR, and 180-200 IP (excepting last season, when he still got to 165 despite the injury). That kind of stability is what the rotation is sorely missing right now.
There are red flags around Maholm to be sure: the injury, the fact that his IP has declined every year from 2008-2011. But the point is, 1 year of Maholm to prop up the rotation a bit is certainly a much better bet than 1 more year of Correia or Locke or whoever.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
you're right, of course
the thing is: if you don’t reasonably expect to compete in 2012, then you need to go for the upside— i.e. Lincoln turns a corner and becomes Maholm level (then you have him at good prices for a while), or if someone gets injured, Owens or Locke get extended shots.
Yes, the stability is nice, but so’s upside.
Or if not upside
At least what you’ve really got in this pitcher. What I see in a bunch of people is panic, Let’s start with the recognition that Bill James is a sunny, overly-optimistic kind of guy. So he forecasts an ERA of
4.36 for Jeff Locke;
4.08 for Brad Lincoln;
4.22 for Paul Maholm;
4.22 for Jeff Francis.
I suggest that the Pirates should definitely go with the more expensive players with no upside. That’s a tried and true strategy for winning. Gosh, maybe the Reds and Cubs would trade us Maholm and Francis for Locke and Lincoln straight up. That would guarantee victory.
Viva Clemente!
If you watched Jeff Locke last year, do you honestly think a 4.36 ERA is a likely outcome? He certainly could improve, but to me he didn’t look like a pitcher who will do anything other than get shelled in the majors.
Anyway, it’s wrong to frame this purely as Lincoln/Locke vs. Maholm/Francis. There’s not much there to suggest Locke is ready, and of Lincoln, Maholm and Francis, the Pirates could have used any or all of them. Lincoln will get his chances almost no matter what, because the rotation is paper-thin right now. Guys like Owens and Locke haven’t really yet proven they deserve extended chances, and when they do, I’m sure the Pirates won’t hesitate to clear a path for them.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 28, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
Adding: I still think Locke is a decent prospect, but unless he’s gotten a bunch better over the offseason, I don’t think he’s ready right now.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 28, 2012 8:13 PM EST up reply actions
All reasonable
And Locke certainly wasn’t ready at the end of 2011. But the goal is winning, not improving to 77 wins. I fail so see a role for Francis or Maholm in competing for a playoff spot.
Viva Clemente!
I don’t truly understand why Everyone thinks are pitching will be so terrible?
Morton’s hurt, Correia’s terrible, Karstens may have been a fluke, and Maholm got replaced by a guy who’s averaged a hair over 70 innings pitched in the past three seasons.
Even in a Good Case Scenario
Morton comes back healthy after missing just a few starts; McDonald and Karstens pitch roughly as they did last year; Lincoln is a legit MLB SP; Bedard is good for 15 starts/~100 IP. Even with all that, you’re basically counting on 25+ starts from Correia, who almost certainly will be replacement level.
The team could/should do better than that. When it would be as cheap as the Francis contract, it just seems half-assed not to. It comes down to “We’d rather pay Correia $4M for 0 wins than to pay Correia $4M and Francis $2M for a shot at 1-2 wins.”
Defeatism isn’t an inspiring trait in a GM.
That second paragraph is what I really object to
I said weeks ago I feared that they would be keeping Correia in the rotation solely to justify the expense rather than admitting a mistake and cutting bait and nothing I’ve seen since has dissuaded me from that view. Indeed, events have only tended to confirm it.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Morton should be ready to go at the start of the season right? Karstens could be a fluke, but we don’t know. Bedard could be healthy the whole season too, again we don’t know. Correia could be terrible again, or he could pitch the whole season like his first half last year, yet again we don’t know. McDonald could become a true #2 this year and dominant, or he could blow up, again we don’t know.
It can go both ways, just cause we think Morton and Karstens could be flukes doesn’t mean they will be, just cause we think Bedard will get injured doesn’t mean he will (long shot). But I’m just saying you obviously don’t think we can compete this year, along with a lot of other people, so why not take a chance on these guys again and see if they can do it or not? They pitch like last year then we’re a competitive team, they blow up then we are right where we thought we would be. Like i said Cole and Taillon will be taking 2 of these guys rotation spots by July 2013 anyways.
De La Rosa
Not to side-track the conversation but Bucs dodged a huge bullet when De La Rosa decided to take less money (reportedly) to stay with the Rockies, then is arm blew up in the beginning of the year. That would have been devastating to the Bucs from a payroll perspective (which in itself is a little sad), and I would be surprised if that doesn’t impact NH and FC’s decision on whether or not to throw down $$ on Edwin Jackson.
Would like to see more money spent
Obviously I’m not about spending hollow dollars just to boost payroll.
But we have increased revenue from attendance and raised ticket prices this year. We also have seen our draft budget drastically cut by MLB. I’m sure between those 2 factors is at least another $5 million or so we didn’t have laying around before. That’s why a Jackson deal of $10m/yr shouldn’t be as unreasonable as it once was.
by ATribeCalledGreg on Jan 27, 2012 10:31 AM EST reply actions
No long term deals look likely
nh said something about arbitration making our payroll go up late last year. If hes sweatin gfj and karstens getting a raise hes probably terrified of cutch hitting arb
by tbote123 on Jan 27, 2012 10:55 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
There's no reason to think he was "sweating" Jones, Karstens or anybody getting raises
He was just stating the fact that they would be earning more dough.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I guess my take on it is
If he gives out 4 yrs to ejax hed be looking at two salries at prob combined 25+ mil in 4yrs and by explaining that payroll increases for our own plYers means there wil be less for free agents
by tbote123 on Jan 27, 2012 11:23 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Pitching improvement is reasonable to expect
because Morton, McDonald, Karstens and Correia all showed talent last year; save for Correia, to a man, it was their first full year as starters. FIRST full year! It’s more likely theyll show further progress than regress. I’d rather have Bedard than Maholm. By all accounts, Bedard and Morton will be healthy this spring training. So, I expect to see performances akin to the first 100 games of 2011, rather than the latter 62. That bodes well.
Not sure if I buy your optimism
McDonald’s k/9 declined by over 1/ip, his bb/9 jumped about .5 and his hr/9 went from .5 to 1.26.
KC has had his k/p dropf from 6.45 to 4.5 in two years and though his BB rate has stayed about the same, his HR/9 had almost doubled.
Karstens, who knows. Hopefully we’ll be a decent #4/5
I have blind faith in Morton, so no negativity there. But the other returning guys are coin flips, or worse, to have productive seasons. I hate to have to bank on getting the right side of that flip three times to even have a near average staff. If one or more go the other way, there will be trouble.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
alot of McDonalds damage came the first and last months of the season
His 4 middle months went extremely well. But he didnt pitch deep into games because he walked far too many people. If he can control that just a tad, he could be a bit better in 2012
by white angus on Jan 27, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
That's seems to be the common perception,
but I’m not sure I agree.
ERA
Mar/Apr – 7.66
May – 2.86
Jun – 3.76
Jul 3.14
Aug 3.93
Sept/oct- 4.95
Seems to support your idea. If you prefer FIP or xFIP you see a much less consistent picture
FIP/xFIP
Mar/Apr – 6.63/5.73
May – 3.37/3.57
June – 4.89/5.47
July – 3.76/3.21
Aug – 5.26/4.46
Sept/Oct – 4.53/4.86
Much more up and down. In May and July, he had 86% and 89% LOB%, where he is in the upper 70s the rest of the time. His LOB%, for his career has been mid to upper 70’s. A 10% jump there solves some runs. As always, monthly splits have SSS, and are tough to compare, unless they show a trend. Looking at his FIP/xFIP, I see little trend. Just a pitcher with some good starts and some bad ones. I agree that mar/apr can be discarded, but the rest of the year leave me with a picture of an inconsistent pitcher.
So all said, I disagree with you statement that all the damage came at the beginning and end, there was a fair around in the middle too, just much harder to subjectively pinpoint the middle months then to pull out the beginning and the end.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Correia’s BB rate didn’t stay the same, it was way better than ever before. His K/BB ratio was also a career high until he fudged that up in August when his arm went wonky. He needs to improve his conditioning and fix his gopher issues but I predict a successful year from him.
As for Karstens, I think people are overlooking the moderate success he had in 2010. His xFIP only improved a quarter of a run in 2011, showing he has 2 years of decent pitching and not just 1. Of course his ERA should jump up to around 4 but a full implosion would be a surprise.
It seems to me that what we hear about happening, it doesn't happen
… but I didn’t hear squat about the new Killer B’s… Barmes, Bedard, or Barajas.
Silence means squat to me.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Free agency isn't the only way to acquire players
They still may be kicking tires on trades that would impact this type of signing, and maybe Francis wasn’t willing to wait and see.
I’m not quite ready to peg NH’s stance as “finished” just yet…
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Jones' bat fits very well for yankee stadium...
I would prefer a package centered on Jones for Hughes than Francis… then make Morales happen.
River Ave Blues likes the Jones/Jones platoon…
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Side note
I had no idea how young Martis was, for some reason I thought he was around 28 or 30.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
how to sell tickets
this is another concern, how is this team going to sell season tickets with the players they brought in, does clint barmes make you run to get your check book? Maybe gerrit cole gets fast track to the big club in the middle of may or they make a block buster trade in the next few weeks. the pirates have to get some thing going to get there fanbase fannies in the seats
"please buy the team mr. cuban"
You could say that about virtually every year
Cutch will bring people, as will Walker and Tabata. Not sure what you are getting at.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
i dont either, unless you grab a Pujols type.
when the team played well, the fans came. how many cutch jerseys do you see?
how many tabata’s? one could argue that fans who really follow the team actually like seeing the homegrown players more than the newly aquired.
by white angus on Jan 27, 2012 12:03 PM EST up reply actions
even then, filling up the stadium on a nightly basis wont help the team but so much.
we need to face it: the pirates will never be “big” spenders at the MLB level, even now that the draft expenditure has been tempered.
by white angus on Jan 27, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I notice no pedro in your list of names.
all teams have some sort of selling campaign , last year it was come out and watch the core 4. What selling point do the have this year. come out and watch “veteran leadership”.
"please buy the team mr. cuban"
What selling point do the have this year.
Cutch, Walker, Hanrahan, etc. Lots of teams sell tickets with worse. I mean, who’s worth watching on the Astros this year?
But they've failed to build on 2011
Their sales plan for ‘12 is the same as it’s been every year since PNC opened: we have some decent guys you’ve heard of, we have a nice stadium, and no other pro teams play in Pittsburgh between May and September.
But it didn’t have to be this way: they actually could have credibly improved the team so as to be able to say, “Remember first place? We’re going there again!” It would be a long shot, and it would be essentially hype, but that’s what promotion is.
Also, you promise 1st place, but the subtext is This Is The Year The Streak Ends. Maholm plus a credible 1B would have put them in decent position (50-50 IMO) to do that.
First Base
Is an issue in my mind. Any thoughts on trading for someone with a little upside like Brandon Allen? I know that’s not exactly going to make them all that better because he hasn’t proven to be able to hit in the majors….but he’d be on the cheap side. I also think Kotchman would be an upgrade there and cheap as well. How about Hanrahan for Trumbo? I think Hanrahan is the perfect chip to move to a contender for a kings ransom. Closers seem to be unpredictable to me and for a team that’s not going to the playoffs maybe less important. Thoughts?
Want Brandon Allen especially if he’s cheap, pretty meh about Kotchman, want no part of Trumbo’s sub-300 OBP (there’s probably reason to think he’d improve, but he won’t come cheap and no way would I give up Hanrahan for him).
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 27, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
Well
I wouldn’t mind going after Allen. Oakland landed him for a middle reliever (actually Arizona had to sweeten the deal because Allen alone wasn’t enough) so I can’t imagine he’d be too expensive. As it stands, Bill James for one, believes that Allen will be good for 22 HR and a .334 wOBA and that’s playing in Oakland. This would make him a little better than GFJ anyway, but if we see him actually realize some of his potential he could be a friggin steal and set us up at 1B for the foreseeable future.
Kotchman is a huge risk. Maybe you get last year’s .300 hitter or maybe you get the guy who nearly played his way out of baseball by bombing in Seattle in 2010. Personally I’d rather take my chances with Jones/McGehee.
Trumbo would be a bad idea, especially if it cost Hammer to get him. You’re right in saying the closer market is good right now but dealing him for a defensively limited 1B that gets on base less than 30% of the time is not a good return.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 27, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions
Fair Enough
I still think that if we aren’t ready to win there is no need to have a dominant closer. Maybe Trumbo isn’t the answer but they can’t keep ignoring the huge hole a first. I feel are rotation would be a lot better if they didn’t have to pitch a shutout every night. Hopefully Tabata and Alvarez can add some of those runs. I would love Brandon Allen and for the price tag I would think that could happen.
I don’t see the Risk in paying little money and taking a chance on Casey Kotchman being the player he was last year. IF he sucks he sucks and we are no worse than before.
Any thoughts on trading for someone with a little upside like Brandon Allen?
I like Allen a lot, and think he’d be a good fit for us.
I also think Kotchman would be an upgrade there and cheap as well.
Maybe. Depends how much you buy into the idea of his turnaround last year being a result of his eye problems finally getting fixed.
How about Hanrahan for Trumbo?
Trumbo is lousy. No upgrade at all on Jones, and giving up Hanrahan for him would be a ludicrous overpay.
But it didn’t have to be this way: they actually could have credibly improved the team so as to be able to say, "Remember first place? We’re going there again!"
And then, when we’re under .500 and in fifth place in May (as we would have been even with a substantial amount of FA investment, because the underlying team just isn’t very good), the team has no marketing strategy for the rest of the year AND the fan base is pissed because the team lied to them.
Maholm plus a credible 1B would have put them in decent position (50-50 IMO) to do that.
Maholm plus a credible 1B puts us around 75 wins, IMO.
+1 to your second point.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Yeah, but 75 wins is only 6 wins short.
And if the team gets a break here, and a break there, getting over .500 would be possible. 6 wins is 1 win a month. One flippin’ break a month, and the CLS would be over.
And I know breaking the CLS isn’t the goal. Still, it would be big. It would help to energize the fanbase, and help get them thinking that maybe actual contention in 2013 or 2014 wasn’t such a pipedream, after all.
Which would increase season ticket sales, and make the 2013/2014 budgets look a lot rosier. Which would enable the FO to add to the 2013/2014 teams, to make true contention at least possible.
Not to mention what it would do to the core players, themselves. So much of baseball is mental, and confidence and winning often go hand-in-hand. And being a part of the core that ended the CLS would be a giant confidence kick.
The other side of that coin is, without a !B man worth a spit, and without an innings eating SP, the bullpen gets burnt out again, the FO is trading-deadline sellers and the Pirates could be looking at yet another 67-95 season. Which, if anything is a confidnce-deflater – for the core players, as well as the season-ticket-buying fans.
And it’s Goundhog Day, all over again.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 28, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
as far as KoW is concerned;
the streak is over we were in 4th place last year. we beat the cubs and astros below .500 and all.
now where is that k law guy or mcbomination, so i can tell’em how i really feel.
by karreemofwheat on Jan 28, 2012 8:35 AM EST up reply actions
And I know breaking the CLS isn’t the goal. Still, it would be big.
Not for me, it isn’t. I don’t give a Pope shit about the losing streak – I want a team that can contend for the postseason, and lucking our way into an 82-80 record if we catch a few extra breaks doesn’t take us there.
No, but you've gotta learn how to walk
before you can learn how to run. So to speak.
It has happened in the past that teams have jumped from 60+ wins to 90+ in the course of 1 season. And it will happen again, I’m sure.
But such jumps are the exception, and not the norm. Most times, teams don’t turn from bad teams into good teams overnight. There’s usually a jump into the 80+ win level for a year or 2, before the last of the jigsaw pieces fall into place.
And to that end, I wouldn’t be all that unhappy about an 80+ win season from the Pirates. Even if the Pirates finished a distant 3rd, behind the Cards and Reds.
For, to me, that would mean that the Cards are getting older, and the Reds are getting more and more expensive (and tougher to keep together), while the Pirates are just coming into their own.
So, I maintain that while breaking the CLS isn’t the real goal, it’s probably going to be the first step, on the way to true contention.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 31, 2012 3:53 AM EST up reply actions
According to Jim Popvich,
who works in the Ticket Sales office, Season tickets and partial plans are doing very well.
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Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 27, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Quit looking for the Pirates to add a bat.
Number of remaining free agents with 300 or more PA in 2011 and better than .800 OPS…ZERO. Casey Kotchman had a .800 OPS on the nose. Per Jayson Stark.
debatable
Kotchman for his career hasn’t been better than Jones, I don’t think, and definitely not better than a Jones/competent righty platoon. It depends on whether you expect Kotchman to repeat his career year. The Rays don’t seem to.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 27, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
He had a BABIP jump of over 100 points last year
Dead Cat Bounce. He’s toast.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 27, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
You can’t hit what you can’t see. That time-honored baseball axiom was never more real to Casey Kotchman than when he stood at the plate inspecting pitches last season.
“It was kind of like looking through a dirty windshield wiper,” he said.
After batting .217 in 125 games for the Mariners, the second-worst average of his career, the former Seminole High star made an appointment in October with Dr. Tom Tooma, a pioneer in lasik who had performed the surgery on Kotchman in Newport Beach, Calif., in 2004.
Kotchman, 28, was diagnosed with a bacterial infection, and Tooma squeezed pus out of both tear ducts. Several followup visits ensured the problem was corrected.
“My vision has been pristine so far, to say the least,” Kotchman said. "And I’m trying to get out of the bad habits I got into mechanically at the plate last year. -Rick Stroud, The Tampa Bay Times, 5/10/11
Emphasis mine.
I have approximately zero trouble believing that squeezing a large amount of pus out of your eyes could be worth a whole mess of BABIP for a hitter. He’s probably not a true-talent .335 guy, but his career figure is .280, so the .229 he posted in 2010 probably isn’t a good indication of his true level of skill, either.
Harden and Sheets
Sign both of them for one year deals at 3 million a pop. Between sheets harden and bedard 2 of them will Pan out and potentially bring back some nice prospects at the deadline. Obviously I would prefer ejax to a multi year deal, but the bottom line is the pirates need to spend more money, and sheets and harden are well worth the risk.
by PensRock1 on Jan 27, 2012 7:34 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Sheets
I was wondering about him. Anyone seen anything on what his status is? If he’s healthy, certainly seems worth a flyer.
Considering he’s (Sheets) missed 2 of the last 3 seasons…I’d say health is a big question mark.
Harden has pitched 100 innings in a season twice in the last 6 years. If you (or the Pirates) are real lucky…you could put the 3 of them together for about $10M, and you MIGHT get 200 IP out of the 3 of them. And Harden’s numbers have been lousy the last 2 seasons when he’s actually pitched. He’d provide a lot of souvenirs in the outfield seats at PNC.
Harden as SP/RP
I will talk more about him in my fan post when I get home. But as a fill in for Charlie while he is out.. See how he does, could take karstens spot permanently or move to the pen.
by PensRock1 on Jan 28, 2012 12:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Morton
is expected to be ready for the season opener. And in talking to NH, we’re only going to need a 5th starter something like twice in the first month, IIRC.
NH also said, however, that he wasn’t going to rush Chollie like JMac was rushed last year, so there’s that.
But if you think Bedard is a risk, arm-health-wise, then there’s no way you can advocate for Harden. Or Sheets.
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Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 28, 2012 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
I would advocate signing a bunch of risky guys to minor league deals
The more risky guys you have, the more one of them works out. Wouldn’t give any of them $3 million guaranteed though, at least not anyone riskier than Bedard.
Probably not Sheets, anyway — there’s “risky” and there’s “ready for his next career as the villain in The Fugitive.”
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 28, 2012 1:09 PM EST up reply actions
It makes you wonder
how the marginal additions to the team and the relative recent inaction will impact the attitude of the team going into the season? It can’t be good.
If you are someone like Cutch do you look at this, conclude the Pirates will NEVER make any significant moves in the offseason to improve the team and conclude that there is no way you will sign a long term deal in Pittsburgh?
"Don Mossi was the complete five-tool ugly player. He could run ugly, hit ugly, throw ugly, field ugly and ugly for power.
Nutting has owned the team since 1996
Have they ever made a significant acquisition in free agency?
and that's how you destroy your credibility
Nutting has been the principal owner since 2007. Nutting has represented his family’s stake in the Pirates since 2003. Nutting wasn’t even on the board until 2002. In 1996 Nutting’s father gave a $2 million loan as part of the team’s $90 million purchase price.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 29, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
Nutting chairman of the board since 2003
exactly the same year when the Pirates gave away Aramis Ramirez for a bucket of balls. Coincidence? I think not.
Let me tell you who has no credibility, Bob cheapskate Nutting.
2 fun points
First of all, the the title of your above comment admits to your being wrong about (or at the very least mischaracterizing) Nutting’s role with the franchise. Secondly, it has been well publicized that Major League Baseball forced the Pirates to dump A-Ram for nothing because they were not in compliance with the league’s debt to equity regulations. To imply that it was just Nutting’s way of torpedoing thing Pirates obvious World Series contending team of 2003 (tongue firmly pressed in cheek) is just silly.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 30, 2012 8:44 AM EST up reply actions
Nutting has had money in the franchise for years
You want to act like he knew nothing about the business of the Pirates until 2007 more power to you.
Hey believe what you want, have it your way.
BTW nobody "forced’ the Pirates to specifically trade A-Ram for nothing.
2003 ... 1996 ...
Just keep moving the goalposts until you find a place where they’ll stick.
Protip: Try 2007.
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Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 30, 2012 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Not an apologist,
and not a blind hater, either.
Nor one who keep belaboring the same point endlessly – the same point that gets refuted [with citation] every time it gets brought up.
You do realize that he’s never, ever selling the team, right?
Or maybe you don’t.
In any case, the constant rejoinder of “Nutting apologist” statement is one the same level as “I know you are – what am I?”
That only works for Pee-Wee Herman, and only because it’s funny.
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Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 4, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
I commented in a thread somewhere here, but can't find it now
Maybe I just typed and deleted (I do that a lot). But someone was talking about Webb and Harden and I wondered about Sheets and Bonderman. I cited this MLBTR article about Sheets’ not pursuing a contract last year and this one about Bonderman “not having the energy to rehab” and hinting at retirement. BBRef lists a “Final game” for both of them, but I couldn’t find any articles (looked at A LOT of Detroit Free Press archives) saying that either officially filed the paperwork.
$3 million is a lot for guys who haven’t pitched in the past year… unless it’s incentive-based. $1.5 million with incentives for games/IP/being active for a set number of days sounds more reasonable.
Looking forward to a piece on currently injured pitchers (hopefully with lots of examples of other guys signed in that fashion)!!
Webb
I believe Webb just signed with Texas, He was another starter i would have liked to see the PIrates gamble on.
I just laugh at this franchise
Seems like they are just spinning their wheels until the next wonder GM comes in and implements his 5 year plan. The Cutch extension talks just continue to linger on while the Bucs FO try to lowball him into a deal yet they’ll go out and sign clowns like Barmes for over 5 million dollars, Barajas for 4 million and start Correira who has no business being in the majors at 4 million. These guys are barely 40 man roster material and we are giving them $$$ above the major league average? You just can’t make it up.
Of course if I was Cutch I’d have a hard time signing here since Huntington has yet to show the skill that he can actually build a playoff team (5th year here there’s just as many holes on the major league roster when he took over for Littlefield).
But hey Nutting has a sweet deal with shared revenue, mlb.com and 2 million or so suckers who prefer to see Fireworks or the Steve Miller Band after the game than see a real playoff contending MLB team.
Let's try this little exercise
From this exerpt:
Seems like they are just spinning their wheels until the next wonder GM comes in and implements his 5 year plan[…]Of course if I was Cutch I’d have a hard time signing here since Huntington has yet to show the skill that he can actually build a playoff team (5th year here there’s just as many holes on the major league roster when he took over for Littlefield).
it seems clear that you believe a real GM (or at least one that you think truly deserves the label of a “wonder GM”) would easily be able to turn bust into boom within 5 years. Is that really true?
Billy Beane is often considered the posterchild for a wonder. Well, in 2006, Beane had a team that made it to the ALCS. Despite having this enviable starting point, do you know how long it’s been since Beane has put a winning team on the field at the Coliseum? Five years. And there is no sign that this will change this year as the A’s have jettisoned several of their young “core” players.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 30, 2012 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
So, let me try to figure out where you stand, KP.
Let’s say the Pirates finish the 2012 season 67-95. Let’s further say that none of the 2009 HS overslots are progressing, Sanchez is still struggling, and the Pirates farm system remains middle-of-the-road. Additionally, McCutchen and Walker remain unsigned to a multi-year deal.
Do you feel, given that hypothetical, that Huntington should be retained?
In that case
no, probably not. But you’re talking about another year and another substantial step back. At the same time, a 78-win team with incremental progress from the important players in the system and a good draft? No extension for McCutchen or Walker (who to be honest, I don’t think the Pirates need to extend early) but maybe one more FA signing like Soler (who won’t help this year but will improve the system…Yeah, he should be retained then.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 31, 2012 7:51 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
Thanks for your response.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 31, 2012 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
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