Low Risk & High Reward Short Term Starters Vs. Long Term Edwin Jackson
by PensRock1 on Jan 28, 2012 1:59 PM EST
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PrintIt is obvious that the Pirates still have money that they can spend this offseason and there are plenty of talented options still available. Yet there has not been even the slightest rumor connecting the Pirates to any free agents in some time. Which brings up the question: How come the Pirates have been so quiet in regards to free agents recently? Is it that the Pirates are done signing free agents because they are confident that they have enough skill and depth at each position to field a decent team for the long 182 game season.... I think not.
There are far too many question marks and lack of depth regarding our starting pitchers and relief pitchers. Could it possibly be that internally the FO are debating between signing short term, high reward options vs. a long term option in Edwin Jackson? They are in the drivers seat and can continue to wait, which will lower their asking price. After the jump i will examine some of these options and why they need to spend more money this offseason.
RIch Harden- He just turned 30 in November and is currently injury free for the first time in 3 years and also still a free agent. Now as Thunder has pointed out, "Harden has pitched 100 innings in a season twice in the last 6 years". I will first address Harden's 2010 season followed by his 2011 season. In both these seasons he fell short of 100 innings ,producing 92 and 82.2 respectively. While also posting a career high 5.58 ERA in 2010 and a slightly better 5.12 in 2011. These two seasons, Harden was plagued by 3 different but not serious injuries. His strike out totals were still impressive, having 75 in 2010 and 92 in 2011. Now those are not good ERA's at all, but considering the offenses he played in the AL and the fact he was pitching at less than 100% the entire 2 years he still managed just below 9 strike outs per 9 innings.
Those 2 years he did pitch over 100 innings in the past 6 years were his only 2 seasons spent in the NL. 2008 pitching 148 innings with 181 strike outs and an ERA of 2.07. 2009 pitching 141 innings with 171 strike outs and a 4.09 ERA. He has never had a significant injury, has always posted good strike out totals and has a career ERA of 3.47. He would be the perfect candidate to fill in for Morton until he is returns, and then either take over Correria's spot in the rotation or move him to the bull pen ( which would lower his risk of injury). Either way a healthy Harden would be a huge addition to the team. There is absolutely no reason not to take a one year flier on him.
Chris Young- He is 32 years old and recently said " his shoulder is feeling as good as it has in a long time and hopes to start pitching again by April". He would probably be able to be signed to a minor league deal between 1-2 million. He has not pitched over 100 innings in 3 years, however has a 3.74 career ERA and a decent strike out rate. He is another injury risk option who if healthy would be an absolute steal.
Scott Kazmir- He just turned 28 a few days ago, and has had an EPIC melt down the past 2 years. However he was once a huge prospect, and had a brilliant first 5 years to start his career. Also he has never pitched in the national league. He will not be able to demand much money, and can probably be signed to a minor league deal. PERFECT low risk/high reward SP.
Justin Duchscherer- He is 34, and a slightly riskier option than the previously stated pitchers. He has not pitched for 3 years due to injuries, but when healthy has shown that he is a very talented pitcher. He would be another intriguing player to take a flier on, but doubt it will happen due to his age.
Justin Duchscherer Career Stats
Ben Sheets- He is 33 years old, and I realize he has missed 2 out of the last 3 seasons. He had Tommy John surgery, along with two tendons replaced in his elbow in Aug. 2010. Seeing him in a Pirates uniform has been one of my fantasies for a while, and was looking like a perfect buy low and high upside. I was hoping to find information that he was recovering and would pitch in 2012. However after a half an hour I came to the same conclusion as Mike Axisa, a writer for YESNetwork.com, stating "Yeah, I haven’t heard anything about him recently either, and I spent entirely too much time digging through Google News archives to find an update". It appears his career is likely finished, which is a shame. So you can scratch him off the being signed by the pirates.
Edwin Jackson- He is 28 and is the long term option the Pirates could be weighing against several short term options. MLB Trade rumors posted today he has multiple 3 year offers, but no one willing to go to the 4th year. If the Pirates choose the long term approach, offering him the 4th year could snag him with spending no more than 1o million per year. He would be a great fit for a rotation that lacks a strike out pitcher.
I am purely speculating, but with the lack of rumors surrounding the pirates, amount of talent still available, and the need to add another starting pitcher or two, I believe internally this is what the pirates are debating. Hopefully they are and will make one or two signings soon.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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thanks for your work
i hope nh reads this blog. these are the kind of moves the bucs should be taking, imo. we have the money, and need the help.
I hope the Pirates are looking at Harden and Young….. but fear they’re not.
Wouldn’t mind the 2005-2008 version of Kazmir, but his recent performance is a little scary. I’d pass.
Jackson doesn’t impress me….. certainly not for the kind of dollars I’m hearing, i.e., multiple years at $10 – $12 million per year. He’s not that good. No thanks.
Duscherer was last under contract to Baltimore: Signed as a free agent on 2/2/11, and released on 8/1/11, having not pitched an inning. Since he hardly pitched in 2009 or 2010, and didn’t pitch in 2011, it ooks like he might be through.
Sheets is a similar story: Last effective in 2008, didn’t pitch at all in 2009, mediocre in pitching part of 2010, and didn’t pitch at all in 2011. He was under contract to Oakland in 2010, but has been a free agent since that contract expired. I’m guessing that there’s no help there, either.
Other possible candidates (in alphabetical order), depending on dollars and length of contract each would command….. plus health status:
- Jeff Francis
- Jon Garland
- Ross Ohlendorf
- Roy Oswalt (better than Jackson if available for $10 mill per year)
- Brad Penny
- Javier Vazquez
- Brandon Webb
Sure would be nice to add one more starter to the mix.
2 points
1) Francis signed with the Reds already.
2) Jackson is a best case scenario right now IMO. He’ll only be 28 next year and has posted fWAR of 3.6, 3.8 and 3.8 the last 3 years. His avg fastball is just under 95 mph. he’s also a 200 inning workhorse. He apparently has multiple 3 yr deals so offer him 4/40 and get him in black and gold thru 2015 to anchor the rotation during the beginning of the Cole/Taillon years.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 28, 2012 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
I predict
Whoever signs Jackson to a 3 or more year deal this season will begin to regret it by the All Star break this year.
What makes you think
Jackson will fall off a cliff as a 28 year old? His performance over the last three years would absolutely make him worth a three year deal.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 28, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
One theory I’ve heard is that teams think that, with his stuff, he should produce even more than he does, and so they trade him when he doesn’t live up to his expectations. (Which is also why other teams want him.) But that, higher expectations aside, he’s still a decent pitcher at his performance.
Strictly out of my behind, though, I don’t have any contacts in front offices.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 29, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
i think teams expect him to do alot more, like even dominate with his stuff...
… but he never has. even his no hitter was bizarre with all those walks.
long 182 game season
what a miracle that would be… Bucs tie for division, win 1 game playoff, win 5 game NLDS, win 7 game NLCS, win WS… 182 games
by Central*Scrutinizer on Jan 29, 2012 2:55 AM EST reply actions
could be the wild-card playoff
if the extra wild-card is in effect this year.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 29, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
I forums often
Thinking NHL season of 82 and MLB season of 162
by PensRock1 on Jan 29, 2012 5:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Edwin Jackson career WHIP is 1.476
And you want to pay him 10 million dollars? Why?
Team would have better off picking up Maholm 9 million option for this year than signing Jackson long term. And is K/9 is 6.7. That’s not that great
I don't get the Edwin Jackson love
He’s put up solid WAR numbers and looks like a great sleeper signing… but he’s looking at over $10 million/year for at least 3-4 years. Starting pitching is at a premium right now, but if any team’s committing >20% of their payroll to one player, it should definitely be someone they can plaster all over billboards and sell as an attraction. Edwin Jackson? Not that guy. I suspect the E-Jax love has come from a “best of a bad bunch after the top guys are gone” situation; that’s how teams end up with contracts like Jayson Werth or John Lackey.
I don't think the Lackey and Werth
comparisons are accurate because those guys signed contracts that would have crippled a team like the Pirates financially. A 4/40 deal with Jackson wouldn’t do that because 1) it would only take the payroll into the mid-50’s which the team has said it can afford and 2) a 4 year deal would have him off the books before anybody of significance came up for free agency so his deal, even if he wound up as a flop, wouldn’t prevent them from signing ‘Cutch after 2015 (obviously they don’t want to let him hit the open market but even signing him to an extension now means he wouldn’t get his “free agent money” until after 2015).
The reason I like the idea of Jackson right now is that he’s a 28 year old workhorse who throws 95 mph. His performance over the past three years has remained pretty constant and I think he’s a safe bet to make 30 starts, pitch 200 innings, have an ERA in the 3.75 range, with 7 K/9 and 3 BB/9. Does that make him a true “ace” pitcher? No, probably not. At the same time, “aces” make way more than $10M/year. There is a chance that since a 4 year deal would get him for his prime years (28-31) that he might improve in which case it could be a steal. Even if he doesn’t, a pitcher putting up numbers like E-Jax has for the last 3 years is the best the Pirates could get until Cole/Taillon arrive because guys like Matt Cain are going to ask for way more than 4/$40M…
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 29, 2012 9:17 AM EST up reply actions
I don't dispute any of that
And hey, we all know teams enjoy trading for him. I’ll buy into that as an asset if nothing else.
I want to spend money
but I rather have Matt Cain at 20 million for 5 years than have e-jax at 10 million for 4 years (although I admit Cain probably would look for more than that)
Cain better pitcher than e-jax. E-jax more of a number 3 starter on a good team at best. Cain is close to being an ace and at worst a number 2
I dont want to give any pitcher 20 million per year if I'm the Pirates
Cain is awesome, but one injury could ruin that contract. Or he could turn into a Barry Zito. And hell yes Cain will cost more than that.
Imagine if the Giants would’ve had the 25 million in extra payroll the last few seasons if they weren’t paying Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand to be basically replacement level… they would’ve been in the World Series a few more times and actually have had a potent offense.
This
I rather have Matt Cain at 20 million for 5 years than have e-jax at 10 million for 4 years
is just not going to happen. I understand the idea of wanting the Pirates to spend more but a team with the third lowest revenue in all of baseball is just not going to get in a bidding war over the top-tier free agents and Cain is certainly one of those. Maybe there will come a time when they can compete for these top level guys but that is not here yet. We will have to be patient and deal with smaller signings until the team is ina position where giving a guy 100 million plus as a free agent isn’t totally out of the question
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 29, 2012 5:10 PM EST up reply actions
i like JCBucs choice there, but he has to know that NO pitcher is going to get that deal in Pittsburgh, right???
If Cole or Taillon get as good as Cain, I doubt the pirates sign THEM to deals of that stature
I wouldn't completely rule it out
if only because we don’t know what kind of financial situation the Pirates (or baseball for that matter) is going to be in 7 or 8 years from now. I think few would deny that Pittsburgh as a city feverishly supports a winner and can be less than kind to a struggling team. If the Pirates are fortunate enough to have a run of success that comes anywhere close to the “Moneyball” A’s behind a big 3 in the rotation of Cole, Taillon and Heredia/Allie/Kingham/McPherson/Pitcher X then this city will show up to watch them. The Penguins were giving away tickets for next to nothing during Crosby’s rookie year and now it’s 60 bucks for the nosebleeds and they still haven’t had an empty seat in five years. A couple years of big crowds and increased ticket prices could lead to a new TV deal and substantially increased revenues. If this happens, it’s not out of the question for the Pirates to become a legitimate middle of the road spender and that would allow for the occasional big contract.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 30, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions
Oh I do
I was just stating that I’m not sure for this market that it would be smart to pay free agent market price on a pitcher who at best is a 3rd starter. If the Pirates are going to spend big bucks on a talent, let it be someone who’s at least an elite talent. Cain was just a guy that I know that’s a free agent next year that I threw out as an example of someone that I would think it would be okay for the Pirates to go out and pay top dollar for.
Kamzir
Would prefer him Than Chris yYoung because of Kazmir only being 28, and having 5 solid MLB season. Also he has never pitched in the NL.
SIgn Rich Harden and Scott Kazmir…. Both to potential minor league deals, and both wont have to paid that much.
Edwin Jackson
Good health, good velocity, durable, high K totals, cut his teeth in the AL for most of the past five seasons, and won 5 games in 12 starts for the 2011 Cardinals.
He is worth signing. Guys like Chris Young and Scott Kazmir are good “junk heap” gambles, but hoping for one of those guys to turn into a solid SP’er is asking for a lot. The last time the Pirates found a starting pitcher off the cheapo-junk heap pile was probably Jeff Suppan in 2003. Finding relief pitchers is one thing … finding SP’ers is a whole different ball of wax.
It's now being reported.....
……that Jackson may sign a one-year contract, in hopes of getting a big deal next off-season. The reports also state:
- He wants to pitch for a contender.
- Boston has offered him a one-year deal in the $5 to $6 million range.
Since Jackson’s agent is Scott Boras, it’s hard to tell whether current reports have validity or whether they result from Boras’s manipulation of the press. At any rate, it continues to appear as though the Pirates have no chance. (And I’m OK with that.)
Yeah, I saw that the other day
to me, this makes no sense outside of a Boras-concocted ploy to try and drive up interest somehow. He’s the last quality SP on the market and could probably get a 3-4 year deal right now for about $10M per year. Holding out for next year puts him in a class where he is pretty low on the free agent pitcher pecking order. I know Boras wanted an AJ Burnett type deal but that’s not going to happen. The only way for it to even have a chance at happening is if Jackson goes out and is a STUD this year which I don’t think he’s really capable of. If the Pirates jump in and offer him 4 guaranteed years, it’s probably the best offer he’ll get and I think he’d at least have to consider it.
As for the “desire to pitch for a contender” thing, I think that’s true about most players. Maybe you have the handful that want to pitch close to home or maybe want to play for the Padres because…well…they play in San Diego. All things being equal, Jackson would take a 4/40 deal from Boston instead of 4/40 from Pittsburgh. However, I’m not sure at all that he’d take a 1 year deal for 5 or 6 mil (a 30% paycut from last year) over that longterm offer from the Pirates.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 1, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions
Bottom Line On Jackson
The Pirates need to offer him a 4 year 40 million deal. I agree with Kentucky that he would take a 4/40 deal from boston or even baltimore over the pirates. However with the reports that baltimore will not go more than 3 years and that boston and some other teams are only offering a one year deal, a 4/40 deal from the pirates would be his best offer. With the other starting pitchers available, him being one year older, and risking a lot of money barring an injury or horrible year signing a one year deal would not be smart on his part.
-The Pirates have the money available
-The PIrates have the need for another starting pitcher.
- It would be the first major/multi year FA signing for the current management.
-This would impact future FA’s and their perception towards the Pirates.
-Also it would be praised by the fan base, and create optimism for the 2012 season
and the immediate future.
Bottom line is If the Pirates offer him a 4 year 40 million dollar deal, Edwin Jackson will be wearing a Pittsburgh Pirates uniform this season.
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