Hopeful or Weary?

by bigpapaj on Jan 28, 2012 1:28 PM EST

We are currently projected to spend approx. $43 million - $2 million less than last year (est’d).

With the caveat that we don’t know what’s happening behind the scenes, it is getting tougher and tougher for me to remain patient as the grand strategy is employed. Bear with me. The strategy appears to be simply accept that we’re going to suck until a critical mass of draft picks emerge to lead us to victory in Pgh. This, in my opinion, is bullshit. Given the paltry payroll (lowest in the NL in 2011), I don’t know why management isn’t spending more now to improve the product and ease us towards relevance.

The same F/O group has been in place since 2008. In that time our farm system has improved. However, despite spending significant amounts our farm system is consistently identified as average. While the normal “yes buts” apply, yes but we don’t know whether this group will turn into something; yes but the system was barren when this group took over – this is not a great showing particularly because of the resources expended. And frankly, I would have expected more at this point.

Worse is the present off-season. It was fun to be playing relevant baseball in June/July but let’s not kid ourselves, the Pirates were not very good last year. We lost 90 games. We were tied for second worst run differential in the NL and were among the five worst in all of baseball. Our starting pitching was mediocre. And worse still was our offense, which scored the third fewest runs in the NL last year.

Despite that, I can’t identify a significant improvement during the off-season. We replaced question marks with bigger question marks. As a result, as we do each off-season we are left with nothing more than the old links in the chain - IF everyone stays healthy/returns to form/performs over the long haul/shows that small sample was no fluke, we might be good.

With a little bit of payroll infusion, which I thought mgmt said was forthcoming we could have made a starting rotation better, shored up 1st base, 3rd base, SS or catcher. Instead, we're left hoping.

I devote too much attention to a franchise that doesn’t appear to be interested in efforts at even modest success in the short-term. I’m frustrated and wondering why I should care when the objective signs of caring from the F/O: resources and players are lacking.

Why should we care as much as we do given the unwillingness to devote more resources to improve a bad product?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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I've been frustrated lately..

I am not a NH basher. He has done somethings very well, others not so well. The main gripe i guess is Sano/J Bay, but even Billy Beane isn’t perfect. My issue is more the fact that FC said explicitly last year that management would invest more money in the team, when more people showed up to watch. If we put aside the point that this might not be fair argument to begin with, miraculously people showed up (myself included) and watched the Pirates last year. I believe attendance was up approx 20%. Ticket prices are going up. Where is the money? I’m not saying we should of signed Fielder or some other unattainable free agent, but why can’t we truly believe (which i don’t) that we might go after Cepedes/Jackson/Solar? All these guys are young and if not cheap, certainly affordable. Maybe it wouldn’t work and it would be a bad investment. But any smart investment strategist would tell you to diversify. Where is our risk investments? We don’t have them. Yes, investing in one of these guys would be a risk and could backfire, but with some aggressive counterbalance in our “portfolio” how do we expect to exceed expectations?

I think something else needs to be said. We are not the Rays. We are not the Rays and never will be. The reason is not so much that we can’t evaluate talent as good as them (even though we can’t) , but more importantly people show up for our games. It’s not fair for management to say we have a model like the Rays, because there model is based on the fact that they have no fans. We do. In that respect, we are more like the Brewers/Reds/Twins. Look at those teams payrolls. There’s no reason ours can’t be up in that range. It worries me to think that the Nuttings are what we thought they were.

by DejanMustard on Jan 28, 2012 1:47 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

I like your analogy of diversification, and we may well have been too conservative in our approach. It seems there are two schools of thought. One is that since we are not going to make the playoffs, it is better to be pretty bad so that we can get a better draft pick mentality. I don’t like that one because it fails to price in other factors (fans ever more discouraged, lower attendance, etc.) Their words never say so, but I often think this is the approach the front office is taking.
The other theory would be to be as good as we can be without giving away the future. I would like to win 82 games. While I would be happy to win 82 games by the end of August, I would also be happy to win 82 games by the 3rd of October. I don’t want to do this at the cost of winning 90 games in 2013 or 2014, but I think there are a lot of advantages to ending the streak, something the FO has consistently said they don’t care about.
I think that is a mistake. I think the whole idea that people care about the streak is fairly stupid, but the concept is out there and the FO should be dealing with it. Ending the streak would be good for ticket and gear sales, and would give the PBC something to point to and say, “See, it’s working.” That would be true even if it had no relation to the building of a playoff caliber team. It would also generate cash (maybe even pay for itself) in the meantime. I think taking a flier on some of these free agents we have been watching go by would be not only fun, but good business as well.
I do disagree with you in regard to your assertion that we are more like the Brewers. Last year the Brewers averaged 37918 for attendance. PNC Park holds 38496. Until we are selling out every game we will not be able to afford the Brewers payroll.

by crusty on Jan 28, 2012 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

I accepted from the start that the new FO was going to build from the bottom up. They have never deviated fom that montra. In fact NH was on the MLB network yesterday and in an interview he restated their game plan.

The frustration for most fans come from them thinking the Pirates are all of a sudden going to surprise them and go away from that plan.

Stop thinking that way and maybe your frustration level will go down.

I concentrate on the Prospects and don’t worry about the ML club because they are what they are and it is not giong to change in the near future.

by oldfrothingslosh on Jan 28, 2012 3:00 PM EST reply actions

That makes

waaaayyyy too much sense.

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by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 28, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

I'm with you 100% bigpapaj, but.....

…..be prepared for a LOT of pushback.

There are many posters here who believe that the Pirates farm system is now among the best in baseball, there’s a reasonable explanation for every underperforming player (both withe the Pirates and in our system), most of NH’s trades have worked out, he can’t be blamed for any of his free agent acquisitions, the Sano fiasco was all the agent’s fault, the primary source of all things bad was Dave Littlefield (who was fired in 2007), the front office is spending as much as it should on the major league team, and bad luck is a major problem.

In contrast, I believe that NH has improved the farm system from the bottom to the middle of the pack (while mostly ignoring the major league team), the primary reason for underperformance is weak talent evaluation and weak development, more than half of NH’s trades have failed to meet reasonable expectations, NH must be held accountable for his preponderance of bad free agent signings, the Sano fiasco was primarily the club’s fault for attempting to bypass the agent, 4+ years should be plenty of time to show significant improvement (not .500) at the major league level DESPITE the Littlefield legacy, the front office is not spending as much on the major league roster as Coonelly promised as recently as during the current offseason, and good management makes its own luck.

I haven’t posted anything on this subject for awhile, but decided to respond and support the O.P. I fully expect to be “bashed” again for “bashing” Huntington. However, please recognize that I have always maintained that NH is significantly better than DL….. and I’ve never posted that NH is a bad GM, nor have I suggested that a GM needs to get every move right (which obviously is not possible).

However, I HAVE posted that a team in the Pirates’ situation needs a TOP-NOTCH GM….. one who makes a preponderance of good moves and few mistakes. Otherwise, any effort to develop a competitive team in Pittsburgh will be futile, due to the minimal (relatively speaking) financial resources available. NH may be an average GM….. but I believe he has demonstrated conclusively that he is NOT top notch.

Hence….. I am weary rather than hopeful.

And we all know there are other factors involved:

- MLB has chosen once again (in the most recent CBA) to ignore the gross financial disparity among its franchises….. AND has changed the rules to preclude the primary strategy NH has been using to add talent, from both the draft and from Latin American free agents.

- Whether Bob Nutting is better than McClatchy or not, it’s clear that the ownership group is among the shallowest-pocketed and most conservative of any major league ownership group. That’s NOT a “Nutting is Cheap” complaint….. but it is what it is.

When those factors are added, I’m especially weary and even less hopeful. Believe it or not, I have always been an optimist in life….. and I used to be optimistic about the Pirates. (Any of you who used to frequent the old ESPN Pirates’ board may remember that.) But the current losing streak, and ESPECIALLY the dismal performance of the team after the break in 2011, has destroyed that optimism for me.

I sincerely admire those who continue to be optimistic….. and hope that your optimism is rewarded soon and in the best possible way.

by magnumo on Jan 28, 2012 3:34 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

To answer your question, yes.

I’ve been hopeful and weary for a long time. Doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme of things though. I’ll still be a Pirates fan.

Hope for the best and expect the worst and one day they’ll surprise us.

by MDBuc on Jan 28, 2012 8:10 PM EST reply actions

Very hopeful

but I think the first 3 months of the season will determine fan allegiances. If guys like Pedro, Cole and the major league rotation collapse then people will be sharpening their pitchforks.

by Mr. E on Jan 28, 2012 10:10 PM EST reply actions

I share your disappointment with the farm system, but for me it really only comes down to two prospects — Alvarez and Sanchez. When a club takes a college hitter at the very top of the draft, there’s an expectation that the player is going to contribute quickly. If Pedro was coming off a .280/.360/.520 season and Sanchez was ready to assume a starting role (with ROY hype), the farm system would be drawing raves and we’d all be psyched for the future. But, right now, only the most optimistic of fans would view them as definite building blocks of a championship team. If the Pirates swing-and-miss on those guys, then I’m wary. If those players turn it around in 2012, then I’m hopeful.

by bolton on Jan 28, 2012 10:57 PM EST reply actions

I've seen people say that Sanchez's fall was predictable,

But unless he fails again this season, I’m going to assume that his problems were a by-product of him getting hit in the jaw.

I think he was still very weak from his liquid diet, and never fully recovered to the point where he was in West Virginia. Because of this, I feel like the fact that he was not at 100% AND starting at a more advanced level made it a very difficult season. Hopefully they start him at AA again, and he can progress from there.

If you look at his August line of .274/.344/.369, I feel that’s where he should have been all year, and that’s the point when he really got adjusted to AA, and back to 100%.

This season is HUGE for Ol’ Jorge.

by H2O on Jan 29, 2012 10:55 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

We’ll never know if the jaw played a role, even if he turns it around.

I do know that many of us were concerned about his hitting skills before the draft and his Bradenton splits indicated that his High-A success might be a fluke. His apparent downturn on defense is more worrisome. Anyway, I sure hope he and Pedro get it together. Nothing cripples a small-market rebuilding plan like failing on back-to-back top-4 college bats.

by bolton on Jan 29, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions

We’ll never know if the jaw played a role, even if he turns it around.

No offense, but I think this is a little silly. Of course the jaw injury played some role in his troubles. He missed a huge amount of time and had a major disruption in his routine, training, and diet. That much of an ordeal would affect anyone’s job productivity, even those of us that spend most of our lives at a desk.

Now, I agree with you that their may very well be larger issues afoot, and Tony may never turn out to be the hitter we all hope he can be. That’s fair. But the injury certainly played some role in temporarily hindering his development.

by Garrett122 on Jan 29, 2012 3:00 PM EST up reply actions

Not everyone who breaks their jaw struggles the following season. You can’t say A definitely played a role in B. You’re making an reasonable guess, nothing more.

by bolton on Jan 29, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

While this is true

not every player has trouble getting back to his playing weight. The fact is that Sanchez played 2011 10-15 pounds below his 2010 weight and that’s not because he was in such super duper cardiovascular shape. Regardless of what happened with other broken jaws (to be honest, I can’t actually think of another guy that it happened to recently) Sanchez DID play underweight and that could easily have had something to do with his lack of power.

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 29, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions

sanchez also played in a pitchers league

if his jaw made him timid at the plate, it sure didnt show in his BB/K numbers

by white angus on Jan 30, 2012 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

I have not seen a single report

from any source that I trust that would suggest Sanchez had a down season defensively. By all accounts, he was still very good at blocking pitches this year, his pop times were strong all season despite this being his first year playing a “full” season and he got better at calling games. I’m assuming that you’re talking about his 18 errors, but remember, he had more than twice as many chances as he did in 2010.

This is the main reason I’m still quite confident in Tony Sanchez as a good ML catcher. Even in a year when he really struggled offensively, his BB:K numbers were still very good (indicating that he wasn’t overmatched) and he was still very strong defensively. So, while he may not develop into Matt Wieters, it still seems quite possible that he becomes Kurt Suzuki at the ML level and having a starting catcher capable of posting 2-3 WAR per year is not a bad thing.

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 29, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions

Not just the errors, but the general accuracy of his throws.

by bolton on Jan 29, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions

i saw Sanchez 6 times this past season.

4 stolen bases against him, 1 caught stealing. one game was 3 SB’s, and he didnt have a chance at any of them. He looked frustrated even.

that being said, his movement behind the plate and pop-time looked impressive. his arm looks strong too. i saw one of his errors and it caused Altoona to lose the game; outside pitch in the dirt and he flat out missed it. guy on third trotted home easily. lousy way to end a game.

by white angus on Jan 30, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions

Waiting to see impact of scouting and development turnover in 2012

Previous MLB scouting resulted in some terrible acquisitions – that has been reorganized. Previous development regime did not result in improved prospect development – changes there too. To me, the changes were recognition by NH where the underlying problems lie. Lets see if there is some improvement in these 2 areas by mid-season; if not, then we’ll know NH was only rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.

by Central*Scrutinizer on Jan 29, 2012 2:43 AM EST reply actions

1) Being the Pirates resulted in only scraps being available, resulting in some terrible acquisitions
2) Completely unprovable

by Mr. E on Jan 29, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

There has to be a time

And I’m not saying its right now, but there has to be a time when we use the younger prospects to get ML talent. The Pirates are currently hoarding prospects, and getting the best available through the draft, but it is unrealistic to expect even half of them to pan out.

We have 4 more guaranteed years of Andrew McCutchen. We have solid players around him, in Tabata and Walker, and a few question marks in Morton, Karstens, JMac, and Alvarez. After the season, we should know exactly what we have in those question marks.

That’s when we need to make a decision. Can we win with that group, and Cole/TSanchez/Marte, or should we stockpile more prospects, in search of a competitive team for 2016.

I believe we should really try to build a winner around Cutch. Lower-level prospects, Heredia/Grossman/Allie/etc, should be used as trade chips, to finish off the current rebuild. If they can bring back a first baseman, a #1 or #2 pitcher, a shortstop, or even a catcher (based on how Sanchez performs), we have to do it. We should never sell the farm and go “all in”, but we can’t sit around waiting for Josh Bell to arrive either.

by H2O on Jan 29, 2012 10:46 AM EST via mobile reply actions

I agree

That there is a time when it makes sense to trade prospects for help at the ML level. However, that time is when it appears that the rest of the team is close and seems fairly predictable. The problem right now is that there are too many question marks at the ML level. Until we have a better idea about what we’re gonna get out of Petey, “Good Stuff” Morton, Tabata’s hamstring and some of our next wave of talent like Marte and Sanchez, it doesn’t make sense to deal from our farm system to patch up a ML team that could be primed for 85 wins if everything breaks right but could be closer to 65 wins if Pedro still sucks, the injury prone guys get hurt and the free agents fall off a cliff the same way most Pirate free agents seem to.

by KentuckyPirate on Jan 29, 2012 11:18 AM EST up reply actions

Kentucky Pirate

Do you remember the other candidates for NH’s general manager job. Also, who you would have hired considering Nutting’s ECONOMICALLY FRUGAL or EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH MONEY

George

by GeorgeQUAD on Jan 30, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions

EXTREMELY CAREFUL WITH MONEY

Can anyone note this reference? Add +1 below if agree.

by GeorgeQUAD on Jan 30, 2012 3:18 PM EST up reply actions

+1

george castanza

age of last winning season: 5

by Bobby Hill on Jan 31, 2012 10:13 PM EST up reply actions

After the season, we should know exactly what we have in those question marks.

That’s a wonderful theory. And you’d think it would work. The problem is, it never works out that way. Instead, we wind up with more questions than answers, at the end of the season. Every year.

by Midnight Moose on Jan 29, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with you up until the all in part. We don’t want to be the 2008 Pirates again with Cutch acting as Bay where we’ve got no future except for 100 losses. We will have a roster always filling and re-filling, like the A’s of the past 10 years and should never clean out the farm.

by Mr. E on Jan 29, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions

totally agree

by white angus on Jan 30, 2012 9:26 AM EST up reply actions

bla bla bla

you guy’s use a lot of words to say the pirates suck and the will never be any better than an also ran with this current ownership group.

"please buy the team mr. cuban"

by sweetleb on Jan 29, 2012 12:47 PM EST reply actions

That's funny,

I read all the words (and actually understand them) and that is not the conclusion I came to.

by MDBuc on Jan 29, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions

Hopeful or Weary?

I am hopeful that the Pirates will continue to build the farm, and that said farm will start paying dividends late this year and forward on into next year.

I am weary of repeated threads and re-hashing of "We should have gotten Player X or Player Y, " (NOBODY knows who NH is or isn’t going after) “We need someone to come buy the team and really spend some money,” (Never, ever gonna happen) “We should be farther ahead in development by now,” ((Like the HS arms drafted should be at Indy by now) and the like.

Before you respond, a few things:
1 Yes, I know I can skip those threads and not bother getting into the re-hashing. and I often do.
2 I realize that every off-season we have these kinds of “discussions,” and
3 The OP is asking for people’s opinions, these are some of mine.

Why should we care as much as we do given the unwillingness to devote more resources to improve a bad product?

You don’t know this for a fact. You’re assuming, and quite probably wrongly (and it’s one of the statements I’m weary of, as noted above) given the amount of money spent in rebuilding via the draft in the last 3 years.

Why should I care? These are the Pittsburgh Pirates – the team I will support and cheer for until the day I die, win or lose.

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Free your ass and your mind will follow.

Follow @cocktailsfor2

by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 29, 2012 7:11 PM EST reply actions 5 recs