Using Marcel projections, with current rosters. The Pirates' average finish was 72-90 and fourth place, in front of the Cubs and Astros. The Bucs won the division 1.6% of the time, took the first wild card 0.2% of the time, and took the second wild card 1.0% of the time, for total playoff odds of 2.8%.
I actually find these results somewhat encouraging. We've certainly gone into a few seasons with worse odds than those.