2012 Projected MLB Standings

Using Marcel projections, with current rosters. The Pirates' average finish was 72-90 and fourth place, in front of the Cubs and Astros. The Bucs won the division 1.6% of the time, took the first wild card 0.2% of the time, and took the second wild card 1.0% of the time, for total playoff odds of 2.8%.

I actually find these results somewhat encouraging. We've certainly gone into a few seasons with worse odds than those.

4 months ago Vlad 46 comments 0 recs |

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I laughed when I saw the total.

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jan 30, 2012 2:09 PM EST reply actions

So you're saying there's a chance?

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 30, 2012 2:12 PM EST reply actions 8 recs

I can't resist...

by King Oskar on Jan 30, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions

By September we'll all be saying..

….“What was that one in a million talk?”

Jose Tabata is the truth

The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.

by Raybin on Jan 30, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

that John Denver is full of shit, man

by white angus on Jan 30, 2012 4:08 PM EST up reply actions

And really, really dead, too.

________________________________
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Follow @cocktailsfor2

by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 30, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

one in a million chances work out nine times out of ten.

This is more like a one in 35.7 chance, they rarely ever end up coming about.

extra points to anyone who gets the reference.

by BlindSquirrel on Jan 30, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions

Discworld

by Schide on Jan 30, 2012 11:31 PM EST up reply actions

correct.

It was my favourite book that he wrote.

by BlindSquirrel on Jan 31, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

no points?

you don’t keep your word

by karreemofwheat on Jan 31, 2012 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

that's about what I expected

by BadAndy on Jan 30, 2012 2:21 PM EST reply actions

Encouraging

May be too strong a word.

by Brakeman8 on Jan 30, 2012 2:43 PM EST reply actions

PLAYOFFS?!?!

by ibuc05 on Jan 30, 2012 2:47 PM EST reply actions

+1

Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?

http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained

by Kosstic518 on Jan 30, 2012 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

I find it hilarious

that he’s able to still make a living (even in commercials) through that one line.

________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.

Follow @cocktailsfor2

by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 30, 2012 5:50 PM EST up reply actions

I’ll take the over

by Mr. E on Jan 30, 2012 3:43 PM EST reply actions

Agreed

I’ll go out there and say 80 wins.

by SuperBaes on Jan 30, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

So they're predicting the exact same season

I’d hardly call that progress

by bosten7 on Jan 30, 2012 3:50 PM EST via mobile reply actions

what did they predict for 2011?

by white angus on Jan 30, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions

that's kind of what MARCEL does

it projects players based solely on prior performance and doesn’t attempt to project growth/loss e.g. since pedro has been terrible it believes he will continue to be terrible.

essentially what the projections say is that during this offseason the team hasn’t gotten any better or any worse in a substantial way, which is something that’s been argued on this site quite regularly.

by johnnycuff on Jan 30, 2012 4:58 PM EST up reply actions

it also has the Padres improving despite the absense of Latos from the rotation

grain o’ salt.

by white angus on Jan 30, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

well yeah

i don’t know much about the padres, but i know that basing a system completely on past performance isn’t going to yield a particularly accurate one, which MARCEL was never intended to be. the padres lost a good pitcher but made some upgrades on offense, though MARCEL has no idea that quentin is old and less likely to hit home runs moving to PETCO.

MARCEL is kind of like the scrappy utility guy of projection systems. you know what you’re getting will be acceptable but also that you can do a lot better. it’s meant as a benchmark (or a lower bound if you’re into all that fancy book learnin’) to measure other systems against.

by johnnycuff on Jan 30, 2012 5:40 PM EST up reply actions

Marcel gives you 90% of the picture, and the refinements of the other systems are the extra 10%.

by Vlad on Jan 30, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions

Weren't we predicted for upper 60's last year?

so that would mean we have improved some in the offseason since we didn’t really add anyone in season besides Presley and some bullpen arms.

by Mr. E on Jan 30, 2012 8:14 PM EST up reply actions

Two games behind the Mets at 74 wins?

I’ll take that action.

by SuperBaes on Jan 30, 2012 4:24 PM EST reply actions

Not surprisingly...

I’ll take the under.

by Thunder on Jan 30, 2012 5:32 PM EST reply actions

of course you would

by BadAndy on Jan 30, 2012 8:01 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I have them at 74. . .

Milwaukee at 83, Cincy at 88 and StL. at 89. I haven’t yet done the Cubs or Astros.

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Jan 30, 2012 5:58 PM EST reply actions

thats what anna benson said

by white angus on Jan 30, 2012 6:33 PM EST up reply actions 11 recs

hahaha

by theatrain on Jan 30, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

that is sooo recced

by Yung-Han on Jan 30, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions

and boom goes the dynamite

by BadAndy on Jan 30, 2012 8:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

rec'd.

make this green, people.

by Garrett122 on Jan 30, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions

Awesome.

by TheRebelMonk on Jan 31, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

I guess having better odds of winning the division vs winning the wild card says the Bucs are in a pretty weak division,

" I think this is probably the best team ever assembled. They talk about the Vince Lombardi Era, but I think the Chuck Noll Era is even greater. " - Mel Blount

by michaelbro8 on Jan 30, 2012 9:00 PM EST reply actions

I think we all agree with that

Although if Oswalt really goes to St. Lo, I start to like them. I think both Wainwright and Carpenter are question marks, but between those two and Oswalt, I expect 45+ better-than-quality starts. Actually, in some ways I think Allen is the key to their season; if he continues to develop, they can afford some inconsistency from Lance, Holliday, the rotation, etc.

That said, 90 wins likely wins the division, unless someone gets lucky (like ARam having a career year and Braun not missing a beat, or the Cards’ array of 32+ studs all staying healthy and productive, or everyone coming together for the Reds).

by JRoth95 on Jan 30, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions

I think I said this before

If you basically rerun 2011 with the current roster, I think we’re at about 72 wins. But I expect net gains from the young players who weren’t healthy last year (Tabata, Pedro, Presley, Lincoln) to gain us another 3-4 wins.

by JRoth95 on Jan 30, 2012 10:33 PM EST reply actions