Pirates Talk To Paul Maholm And Dan Wheeler, But Are Unlikely To Sign Either
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 4, 2012 8:27 AM EST
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It doesn't sound like Paul Maholm is coming back:
Management continues to seek to add to its rotation, but any additions probably will come from nonroster invitees or means other than a high-profile free agent ...
Neither side is closing the matter, but the Pirates seem largely set with their roster.
Also (via MLBTR), the Pirates have reportedly shown interest in reliever Dan Wheeler, but are unwilling to give him a major-league deal ... which of course makes sense, because they don't have any particular need for another righty reliever at the major-league level. Wheeler allows way too many homers, but he still deserves a major-league deal, so my guess is that he'll be headed elsewhere.
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any additions probably will come from nonroster invitees or means other than a high-profile free agent
In other words, having gotten their talent back up to the 90-loss level, they’re going to rest on their laurels.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
Dare I say it....
PUNT
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Depending on how you define “punt.”
The off-season is shaping up exactly like I figured when they dumped all those guys. All their effort has gone into replacing the guys they let walk and now it looks like they’re down to minor league deals and waiver claims. They’ve ended up with maybe a slight overall upgrade, although it becomes a significant downgrade on the day Bedard gets hurt. Meanwhile, the major issues that needed to be addressed as of the day the season ended—the everlasting hole at first, the overall need to drastically upgrade a putrid lineup, the need to upgrade a rotation that pitched over its head last year and was still below average—all remain entirely unaddressed.
They’re still just marking time, not trying to improve meaningfully, waiting until Cole, Bell, Taillon, etc., arrive.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 9:09 AM EST up reply actions
That last sentence is pretty much exactly how I define punt
Right now, if things break well and Barmes/Barajas can at least hold serve on their numbers from last year and Bedard can give 125-150 innings (big ifs, I know), I could see the Drive to 75™ at least being completed.
For right now, I’ll stay optimistic and predict a 77-85 record.
I guess the only matter up for discussion now is does replacing McKenry with Barajas, Cedeno with Barmes, Maholm with Bedard, Paul with Mclouth and Overbay with a Jones/McGehee platoon really provide those 5 wins or am I overshooting?
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I realized I oversimplified there
There’s also other factors: McCutchen having a whole season like did last year, Tabata staying healthy, Presley really turning out to be who he looked to be last year, Morton continuing his upward swing and maybe finally hopefully at last Pedro finding his 30 HR stroke.
If everything breaks right, it’s an 80-82 win team.
But when wast he last thing everything broke right? Something—more than one somethings— in the lists above are inevitably going to go wrong
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Last thing? Ugh.
Last TIME
I’ll stop talking to myself now. MOAR COFFEE
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I think you and I
are just spending these threads agreeing with each other.
If they replayed 2011, swapping out the new arrivals, they probably win 1-3 more games. Next year, with a bit better health luck and natural progress/development from the young players on the roster, they should do a bit better than that.
Bottom line: 75-78 wins, unless Bedard pitches less than 50 innings or Cutch starts fewer than 130 games. Or a million guys get hurt. But those are the only 2 individuals that I see as making a significant dent in my predicted win range. On the flip side, we know which players could step up to make a run at 81, but no reason to expect that, especially with big potential holes.
Because we are men of excellent taste, sophistication and sound sense
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
no one seems to be mentioning that...
the astros have not improved, the cubs are rebuilding, the brewers are not going to be the same and the cards lost the best offensive force in the game.
the pirates have improved while those 4 teams have not. only the Reds have made substantial improvements in their roster.
Pirates, if the youngsters improve, could have a very nice season
Between getting Wainwright back and signing Beltran, the Cards might not lose much ground next year, even with Pujols gone.
beltran will help a tad. its not like hes taking the place of holiday. its pujols.
face it, the pirates have improved slightly this offseason while 4 of the other teams have not.
this is the best chance this team has had to compete since forever.
Agreed if they had actually improved.
Maybe I’m blind, but I don’t see improvement here at all. This rotation gives up more runs and relies more on am unimproved bullpen, and the offense scores even less IMO. On the plus side, tickets should be easy to get.
how do we give up more runs? youre expecting the starters to regress?
bedard replaces maholm and the rest of the rotation stays the same. even the bullpen is pretty much the same.
i never said huge gains, but anyone who says this team isnt improved over last season is blind
bedard replaces maholm
Bedard replaces about 2/3 of a year of Maholm, and then his arm falls off (on average). The other third of the season will be a placeholder. Maybe Jo-Jo Reyes…
And he still made more starts than Bedard
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 6:02 PM EST up reply actions
One guy was out for a couple of weeks with a sore arm, and then was medically cleared by the top doctor in the field without needing any kind of corrective action.
The other guy has had two shoulder surgeries and an elbow surgery, along with numerous physical ailments, and has averaged 13 starts per season over the last three years. If you expand that window to the last four years, the average goes all the way up to 13.5.
If you think the latter is likely to be healthier than the former going forward, that’s your prerogative, I guess.
Why do you think the offense scores less?
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Simple
Bedard. Question mark. Morton. Big question mark, even before surgery. Correia. Big question mark. Karstens. Question mark at best. As far as offense the catching situation is abysmal. Barmes is no help. I don’t see where the offense is coming from. McCutchen can’t play every position.
Berkman is more likely to collapse
than Barajas and Barmes combined. The Cards got lucky with him last year. No reason to assume that luck will hold.
Also, Chris Carpenter is 37. How long will he keep pitching 5 WAR ball?
Bottom line: even if Wainwright and Beltran are productive, the Cards could easily drop by 10-15 wins.
Berkman is more likely to collapse
than Barajas and Barmes combined.
I’m not convinced that this is true. Particularly if they shift him to an easier defensive position, 1B.
you could be right
but you yourself have mentioned the “getting old” thing and berkman is definately that.
Replacing Pujols
Last year was Pujols’ worst career WAR: 5.4. Beltran put up 4.4 WAR last year and 4.2 and 1.9 in 2009 and 2010 respectively while missing considerable time. Wainwright is coming back; he’s unlikely to reproduce his 6.0 (2009) or 5.9 (2010) WAR numbers, but he’ll still be a positive contribution. Furcal is no all-star anymore, but his 1.4 WAR in 1/3 of the season in St. Louis should eclipse the even 0.0 WAR that Theriot put up for them. I anticipate regression from Berkman and possibly Carpenter, but a full year of Freese, the new additions, and some development from Allen Craig… they’ve done a solid job of replacing the value they got from Pujols last year.
does Beltran play a full season? hes missed more time than not in 2 of the last 3 years
but that only matters when it comes to Bedard.
He looked good last year
He isn’t a stellar defender anymore, but he didn’t seem to get the nicks he’d been suffering last year. I didn’t realize how good he was until I started looking at his numbers.
There is considerable downside risk for some of the Cards’ players, but on the whole, I think they’ve done a fairly good job of treading water.
Not losing Pujols in the first place would have been better, of course.
I do love the Beltran signing
But I still think that the odds are that they slipped a couple games from last year, and that they are at substantial risk of, as I said, dropping 10-15 games.
I wouldn’t bet even money on the Bucs ending up with a better record than the Cards, but I bet I could find someone who’d give me odds that I’d take (3:1? Somewhere in that range). If the Pirates replaced Correia with someone at least as good as Maholm, I’d take nearly even odds.
Probably hyperbole
and depends on your definition of “collapse”.
But let’s go with “produce less than 50% of last year’s WAR”. For Barmes + Barajas, that would be 4.4 to 2.2; for Berjman, that’s 5.0 to 2.5. Which one would you put money on being exceeded? Me, I’d take our guys (I wouldn’t be surprised to see Berkman exceed 2.5, but I bet he doesn’t do it by much).
If we define collapse as “close to zero value”, then Barajas is most likely, Berkman second most likely (see Overbay, less talented but also much younger), and Barmes least.
Mostly, I think it’s ridiculous to think that the Cards have stepped up, but we’ve stepped back – it’s the fallacy (common to Pirates fans) of assuming that all our guys will get hurt or collapse, while the other teams’ guys will defy precedent to produce.
We can't have
nice things.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 5, 2012 8:24 AM EST up reply actions
I can't deny
that that position has some precedent. But I don’t think it’s sustainable. At some point the Pirates will get a little bit lucky; it’s been 15 years now since we’ve had a net positive season for luck.
Arguably the Cards have had net positive luck most of the last 10 years, but it’s hard to separate that from Pujols (and Duncan).
At some point the Pirates will get a little bit lucky…
If we want to get lucky more often, we should stop making so many bad bets. The vast marjoity of FA signings in their mid-to-late 30s will get worse, rather than better. That’s just how aging curves work.
Oh, sure
Most of the Pirates’ bad luck has come from bad planning. But far from all of it. I’m not sure the Pirates have done anything as obviously dumb as counting on Berkman in RF in years – probably not since Matt Morris, and that was ann outlier even for DL.
I’m not sure the Pirates have done anything as obviously dumb as counting on Berkman in RF in years –
I think Correia as a SP on an expensive multi-year deal comes pretty close. Particularly given the greater financial restrictions under which we operate.
it was aggresive at all
it was a fairly late signing, and the FO didnt want to go with Jones as the fulltime 1Bman
anyone that thinks Overbay was the choice from the get-go needs to get back on the small yellow bus and make sure the helmet strap is on tight
and the FO didnt want to go with Jones as the fulltime 1Bman
If they were concerned with Jones as the fulltime 1B, they should’ve gone out and gotten someone who was demonstrably better than Jones, rather than Overbay.
There are lots and lots of 1Bs out there. No excuse for spending $5M on a crappy one.
of course there was an excuse: no one wanted to play for Pittsburgh
the only real way to improve was to make a trade, but NH and most others would prefer not to trade the prospects
Meh
I can’t consider 2/8 “an expensive multi-year deal” unless it’s for a bench player or bullpen depth.
I had high hopes/expectations for Correia, which I’ve come to reassess, but I still don’t think it was aggressively dumb.
Having just checked, I’ll admit that $8M wasn’t a crazy amount to pay Berkman, since they could afford it (I guess) and he was better than even odds to produce that much, if not much more.
I can’t consider 2/8 "an expensive multi-year deal" unless it’s for a bench player or bullpen depth.
That $4M per year represented approximately 10% of our payroll in 2011, and made Correia the fifth-highest-paid player on the team (behind Maholm, Snyder, Doumit, and Overbay). And we spent it on a guy who’d been a replacement-level performer the year before, and who ended up as a replacement-level performer in the first year of his deal with us.
Berkman second most likely (see Overbay, less talented but also much younger)
Overbay collapsed because he was a player with inferior physical tools who got just a little bit older and couldn’t keep up anymore. Berkman still has very good bat speed – the collapse scenario for him is much more likely to involve a catastrophic injury than creeping ineffectiveness, IMO.
But Berkman in RF?
I agree that Berkman at 1B or DH wasn’t likely to collapse (again, depending on definitions; he was worth 5.0 WAR in ’09 and ’10 combined), but putting him in RF should have meant, in any fair universe, either catastrophically bad defense canceling out an OPS+ around 120 or a good chance of an injury (or both!). To get 5 wins from him – when 3 would have been viewed as a nice bounce back – was absurdly good luck.
catastrophically bad defense canceling out an OPS+ around 120
Other than 2010, Berkman has never put up a full-season OPS+ below 130. The Cardinals correctly determined that his disappointing 2010 was the result of injury rather than age, and that they’d be able to keep him healthy in spite of the more challenging defensive role. That’s good scouting and (much though it galls me to say it) good PT distribution by TLR to keep him fresh.
There was also a certain measure of luck involved, of course – I don’t think anybody expected a career high in OPS+. But the fact that he was a productive regular shouldn’t have been surprising.
So . . . The Plan is to sit around and hope everybody else sucks?
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
for 100 games last season the pirates beat good teams
theres no reason why our slightly improved squad cant do the same. the brewers were a thorn, and now they are crippled. put a hurting on them will make a huge difference in the standings.
but i forget, our FO doesnt care about winning, just making a few extra bucks
Oh, OK
So The Plan is to hope everybody sucks and to pretend the last two months of 2011 didn’t happen. It’s like faking a punt and trying to draw the other team offside, then going ahead and punting when they don’t fall for it.
but i forget, our FO doesnt care about winning, just making a few extra bucks
Save the straw man for the NutHo types. The problem isn’t that they don’t want to win. The problem is that they don’t have a viable approach at the major league level.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
you...
said the team was punting when it got rid of maholm. NH goes out and gets Bedard.
the team was punting when it let doumit and cedeno go. NH gets barmes and barajas.
then NH trades nothing for McGehee whom is one year removed from being a very good player.
the real problem lies with the fan who thinks he knows more about baseball than guys who actually making a living at it…
you know, guys like us.
Yeah, I always thought Littlefield was an idiot. I should have given him the benefit of the doubt, like you would.
You seem to equate punting with not trying. There’s a reason I asked Raybin how he defined punting. In fact, I specifically said at the time they let Maholm go that I was afraid all they’d do was replace the guys they dumped, which is exactly what’s happened. I never said they’d make no additions. It’s not a question of them making no effort. It’s a question of them having no plan other than to piddle around the edges of the roster, waiting for the waves of prospects to arrive. It’s not the same thing, so quit with the straw men already.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 1:56 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They’re doing exactly what I said they’d do. Whether you call it punting or not, they haven’t addressed their main problems.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
thats because they wont trade the prospects, which is the one thing youre happy about!
i say improve the team by trading prospects. you say keep an average at best pitcher for $9MM.
something has to give
thats because they wont trade the prospects
Not exclusively, no. They could have also signed different free agents, or made trades involving non-prospects at areas of depth. For example, they could have picked up Maholm’s option and traded another starter (McDonald, maybe?) for a new-and-improved 1B, or shopped Hanrahan for an offensive upgrade. Those may or may not have been good ideas, depending on what was on the market, but they’re perfectly reasonable strategies.
What do you feel they should('ve) do(ne)?
Do you think there is a better strategy than waiting for the prospects?
We improved Maholm and Ronny, we added the no.2 C on the market, we offered arb to Lee and we took out a nice insurance policy on Pedro. We even added some decent upside bench options. I think you undersell the upgrades.
I would have loved to see them add an 8th inning arm and bring in Mike Gonzalez or another lefty on a minor league deal but it’s not too late for that yet. Lee still hasn’t signed and there are enough back of rotation SPs floating around also.
We improved Maholm and Ronny
I’m not sure that the expected return from Bedard and Barmes for 2012 qualifies as an improvement on the expected performance of Maholm and Cedeno in 2012, given the much higher risk associated with the former than with the latter.
Hmm
Using bWAR, because FG isn’t loading for me.
Barmes upside is to match last year’s 2.9 WAR; if his defense holds and his offense is typical, he’s more like 2.2. He’ll make $5M.
Bedard’s harder to peg, of course. He’s generally produced between 0.02 and 0.03 fWAR (it just loaded for me) per IP, so pick a likely IP total and forecast your WAR. If he goes 90 IP, he’ll give you ~1.8 WAR or more; if he goes 135, ~2.7, if he goes 180 IP (which he used to do), 3.6 or more. All for $4.5M.
Last year was Ronny’s best, at 1.6 WAR; 2010’s 1.0 is probably more to be expected. He would have been $3M.
I’ll give Maholm yet another 2 fWAR season, at $10M.
Bottom line: Cedeno + Maholm, a fairly reliable 3-4 wins for $13M.
For Barmes + Bedard, a very unreliable range between 2.5 and 6 (with a downside close to 1 or 2) for $9.5M (plus $5.5M for Barmes in ’13).
I think you need to either disregard salary or assign extremely high odds to complete collapse from both Barmes and Bedard to make them less productive. Their ceilings are simply much higher, and their non-collapse floor is basically the same, compared to Ronny/Maholm.
It may well end up a wash, but I think that the totality of odds favor B&B, especially with salary included.
A couple of quibbles:
I don’t think you’re properly accounting for the difficulty involved in placing a precise value on Barmes’s defense. Last year was his first full season at shortstop, the position he’ll play for us, since 2006. Over the last three years combined, he’s spent only 1,522 2/3 innings at the position… and advanced defensive metrics only really start working with any degree of accuracy at 1,500 defensive innings. Even more worrisome, a big chunk of Barmes’s assessed value during that time is coming from the system’s rating of his defense at short. In those 1,522 2/3 innings from 2009-2011, B-R credits him with +29 runs’ worth of defensive value as a shortstop… and only +14 runs’ worth of defensive value in 1,779 2/3 innings as a second baseman, an easier defensive position. So how much value is his glove really going to provide for us?
You’ve also overstated the cost of bringing back Maholm and Cedeno. For 2012, Maholm had a $9.75M option with a $0.75M buyout, so the actual marginal cost to retain him was $9M, not $10. For 2012, Cedeno had a $3M option (scalable upward with incentives, none of which he achieved) with a $200k buyout, so the margnial cost to retain him was $2.8M. As such, the total cost of bringing back Maholm and Cedeno was $11.8M, not $13M.
I also think you’re substantially overstating the chances of getting anything approaching a full season out of Bedard. And it’s worth noting that Fangraphs’s pitching numbers see Bedard providing 10.7 WAR over the last five seasons rather than B-R’s 11.1, and Maholm providing 11.9 rather than B-R’s 8.2, primarily due to B-R not understanding how much Maholm’s numbers have been hurt by our crappy defense during that time. So by those numbers, 4 wins for Maholm and Cedeno combined is closer to the baseline expectation than the upper boundary from your methodology.
Oh, and you need to apply some kind of additional debit to the value of the Bedard and Barmes numbers to account for the lost opportunity cost involved in taking Barmes on a two-year deal (and the increasing chance that, being another year older, he’ll unexpectedly collapse in 2013).
Hold on
I used fWAR for both Maholm and Bedard, because I don’t like how B-R does WAR for pitchers – so that’s apples to apples. By fWAR, Maholm’s last 2 seasons were 2.0 and 2.1 – how can you possibly add that to an inconsistent player whose career high is 1.4 to come up with 4.0 as a “baseline”? Yes, Maholm was better 3 and 4 years ago, but Cedeno was much worse.
Put it this way: Cedeno + Maholm, by fWAR, have never combined for more than 3.5 fWAR in a season. Starting in 2006, their (mutual) first full season, they’ve combined for -0.2, 1.9, 3.0, 2.8, 3.1, and 3.5. And you want a baseline close to 4? Giving them a ceiling of 4.0 is optimistic.
I’m open to ideas about how to account for Barmes’ 2013. I mentioned it in parenthesis, because it matters, but his performance in that year is wholly speculative. Hell, he could be a 2 WAR player this year and earn his whole contract before Opening Day 2013 – not likely, but hardly impossible.
Points about his defense at different positions are wholly taken, as are, of course, the buyouts for Ronny and Maholm. However, since you’ve mostly succeeded in convincing me that Maholm + Ronny would never have exceeded 4.0 WAR, while it takes non-heroic assumptions for B&B to do it (at less salary), I stand by my conclusion.
By fWAR, Maholm’s last 2 seasons were 2.0 and 2.1 – how can you possibly add that to an inconsistent player whose career high is 1.4 to come up with 4.0 as a "baseline"?
I typically use three-year averages for established players, and Maholm was at 3.2 WAR in 2009. His three-year average is 2.43. A weighted average is better, but I’m at work right now and I didn’t want to screw around with the numbers that much, so about-two-and-a-half it is.
Put it this way: Cedeno + Maholm, by fWAR, have never combined for more than 3.5 fWAR in a season.
That’s because Cedeno was of pre-peak age before his time with us (and not a starter for a good part of that time, as well). Guys in the age ranges of Maholm and Cedeno tend to stay where they are, performance-wise. Cedeno was about a win-and-a-half player last year, and that’s a reasonable expectation for 2012 if he finds another starting gig (which he might or might not).
Cedeno's done 1.4 WAR once
and 1.0 WAR once. To look at that and say that his baseline is 1.5 is ridiculous. His 3 year average – I know this guy who really likes to use that – is 0.7 WAR.
nd 1.0 WAR once. To look at that and say that his baseline is 1.5 is ridiculous. His 3 year average – I know this guy who really likes to use that – is 0.7 WAR.
A three-year average only works for counting stats like WAR when a guy was used in the same role for all three years. Which, of course, Cedeno wasn’t – he wasn’t a full-time player in 2009.
He played 83% as much as he did in 2011
You just can’t admit that a 4 WAR baseline between Maholm and Ronny is wishcasting, can you?
You just can’t admit that a 4 WAR baseline between Maholm and Ronny is wishcasting, can you?
I genuinely don’t believe that it is. If you run the numbers precisely it might be a couple tenths high, but since WAR isn’t a measure with that kind of precision anyway, I don’t think that’s a sin. Certainly no more inaccurate than you setting the baseline for both combined at 3 WAR.
Guess we’ll find out, once they play the games.
Alright
It occurs to me that you and I may be defining “baseline” differently. To me, it’s the, I dunno, 33 percentile outcome – 2/3 of the time, you’ll see that or better, with the other 1/3 including everything from freak injuries to off years to a bit of bad luck (Cedeno carries a .280 BABIP all year). I can’t see a number above 3.5 as meeting that definition, when it requires at leads one of them to approach a career high.
Side question: would you weight a 3-year average at 1.2, 1.0, and 0.8? That was the ratio that came to mind, but I have no idea if people who’ve actually thought about it would agree.
More on weighting
Presumably you’d weight differently for players at different ages – 26-y.o.s are coming into their peaks, so their age-25 seasons are probably a lot more relevant than their age-23s. 29-y.o.s are still in their peaks, and 26 is nearly as relevant as 28. Which suggests I should flatten out the weighting for Paul (who I keep thinking is already 30).
By 31, you need to weight recent years more heavily, and by 35 I think you need to check for a decline curve – 36 may look more like 35-(34-35) than it does (33+34+35)/3.
Am I off?
It occurs to me that you and I may be defining "baseline" differently.
This is one of those discussions, like whether or not a guy is a #3 starter, where no two people enter with the same expectations.
Side question: would you weight a 3-year average at 1.2, 1.0, and 0.8?
The way I was taught was to use 5-4-3 for the three seasons (most recent is the five) in a quick-and-dirty look. There might be a better approach, though – a lot of what I “know” is just stuff that I picked up here or there along the way, rather than the product of systematic study and optimization.
Thanks
Mine translates to 6-5-4, so similar scale, but discounting the old season a touch more (the most recent season being worth 1.66X the oldest, vs 1.5X).
To make it more clear (?), yours could also be done as 0.75, 1.0, and 1.25.
By that weighting, Maholm’s due for a 2.34 – a meaningless difference from the 2.36 I got. Guys with more annual variation would see more difference, of course, but probably not enough to ever make a meaningful difference.
Maholm + Cedeno have never reached 4 fWAR
combined in a season. bWAR the last 4 years are … 4.3 (08), .4, 1.4, and 4.2. I don’t see how 4 is anything near the baseline since both years they barely achieved it were driven by career years from 1 or the other.
You admit Maholm is a poor fit for our defense but you can’t admit another LHP who puts far less balls in play at 1/2 the price will be a significant upgrade?
You admit Maholm is a poor fit for our defense but you can’t admit another LHP who puts far less balls in play at 1/2 the price will be a significant upgrade?
If Bedard could be counted on to give us a full season’s worth of innings, he’d be a clear upgrade on Maholm. Since he can’t, he’s not.
To put it another way: The relevant consideration isn’t a full season of Maholm vs. a full season of Bedard. It’s a full season of Maholm vs. a half-season of Bedard (give or take) and a half-season of whoever ends up taking his innings when he’s hurt.
OK, but
even Correia isn’t negative. Lincoln may never be a regular starter, but he put up almost 0.1 WAR/9 IP last year; if he picks up Bedard’s (presumptive) lost innings, the WAR total doesn’t go backwards, and the payroll budges by no more than $450k. Either Owens or Locke are reasonably likely to be 0 WAR or better.
Point being, it’s not actually likely that Bedard will put up 1.5 WAR in 10 starts and then have Brian Burres or JVB come on and put up -2.0 WAR in 22 starts.
As I’ve said a million times, I wish they’d kept Maholm – Bedard+Lincoln is a much clearer upgrade over Correia – but that doesn’t change the fact that B&B are, on the whole, likely to put up (somewhat) more WAR for (somewhat) less money than M&C.
OK, but even Correia isn’t negative.
If a guy’s a true-talent replacement-level player, then there’s a nearly 50-50 shot that he’ll be below replacement level in any given season.
Either Owens or Locke are reasonably likely to be 0 WAR or better.
Maybe they will, and maybe they won’t. They’ve both got promise, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see either one step up this year, but Locke was below replacement level in his trial last fall, and Owens’s AAA ERA over 5 probably wouldn’t have translated too well, either. A positive performance isn’t a given for either one.
There is, of course, also the chance that we might end up needing more than one of these guys if one of the other starters is injured or ineffective, which would greatly increase the chance of fiasco.
that doesn’t change the fact that B&B are, on the whole, likely to put up (somewhat) more WAR for (somewhat) less money than M&C
Sorry, but that’s just not the case.
More detail
Ronny Cedeno, in 700 career games, has accumulated 1.1 WAR. You are forecasting him at 1.57 WAR for 2012 (as a baseline, combining with Maholm’s 3-year average of 2.43 to reach 4 wins).
Kevin Correia, in 900 career IP, has accumulated 4.7 WAR. You are forecasting him at 0 WAR, with a 50% chance of negative WAR (career IP at negative WAR: 77; Cedeno PAs at negative WAR: 948). As both a SP and RP, Correia has a career FIP and xFIP of 4.50 ±0.15, so don’t waste my time with “those WAR don’t come from starting”.
The outcome you predict is possible, even plausible, but you’re twisting yourself into a pretzel trying to make it likely, and it’s ugly to watch.
Ronny Cedeno, in 700 career games, has accumulated 1.1 WAR.
Mostly because he was promoted to the majors before he was ready, and put up substantial negative WAR at the front end of his career. What does his lousy 2006 have to do with the player that he is today? Virtually nothing.
Kevin Correia, in 900 career IP, has accumulated 4.7 WAR.
Mostly as a reliever, a role to which he is much better suited. Andrew McCutchen has 12.4 career WAR, but that doesn’t mean that he’d be a positive contributor if you made him a catcher or a LOOGY.
You’re also making the same error with Correia that you were with Cedeno. The fact that Correia was very good in 2007 tells you virtually nothing about what kind of player he is right now. Recent data is more important than older data, since players’ skill levels don’t remain constant, and just as the trend line on Cedeno has been pointing up for the last few years, the trend line on Correia has been pointing down.
You're still not addressing
how you get Ronny from a career high 1.4 WAR to a “baseline” of 1.57.
If we weight Maholm’s last 3 years (according to the split I mention above; apologies if that’s bogus, it’s not meant to be at all), we can project him at 2.36 WAR. If I call your baseline 3.75, not 4.0 (see how generous?), that’s still asking Ronny to – at minimum – duplicate his best season, one that was 40% better than his previous high.
I’m happy to say that their combined baseline is above 3 (although that’s not really how I’d use “baseline” – to me, it’s more of a median outcome), but close to 4? Nope.
You’re still not addressing how you get Ronny from a career high 1.4 WAR to a "baseline" of 1.57.
WAR isn’t a precise enough measure (at this point, at least) for the difference between a 1.4 and a 1.5 to be particularly meaningful.
If you wanted to slice it into quarters of wins and say a baseline of 3 3/4 rather than 4, I wouldn’t argue with that. I was mostly objecting to a base expectation of 3 for the two combined, which seems very low.
that’s still asking Ronny to – at minimum – duplicate his best season
It may be his “best season”, but it’s not really out of line with what he did the year before, and we’re talking about a player who’s at the age when position players typically peak, and a player with only limited experience as a starter. I think it’s a reasonable expectation.
No pitcher is a sure thing.
But Maholm is significantly less un-sure than Bedard. Bedard hasn’t had a full, healthy, productive season since 2007, and 2007 was a long-ass time ago. In 2007, Ian Snell was our top starter (3.76 ERA, 116 ERA+, 1.33 WHIP, 177 K in 208 IP). Kelvim Escobar and Scott Kazmir put up 5+ WAR seasons, and Oliver Perez was on the NL ERA leaderboard. Anybody want to bank on a huge 2012 from any of those guys?
I would love for Bedard to be a stud all year long for us next season, but his recent history suggests that he’s very likely to miss a non-trivial amount of time with some kind of medical problem. We need to have a plan in place for when he’s hurt.
said the team was punting when it got rid of maholm. NH goes out and gets Bedard.
Bedard is a good pitcher, but on the whole, which of those two guys has provided more value over the last three years?
then NH trades nothing for McGehee whom is one year removed from being a very good player.
I don’t trust McGehee at all. We might get a dead cat bounce out of him, but we might not, too.
yes, the last two months were bad
maholm went down.
doumit was always hurt.
innings were building up on the starters.
the bullpen got tired.
the offense never improved.
NH traded for Lee and Ludwick, the team got worse.
Doumit came back, the team didnt improve.
Please remember that all ive said on this occasion was that the pirates have improved since last season, and this is assuming that the young players have better years than 2011.
im not saying we’re a playoff team. i’m not saying the “streak” comes to an end.
bedard/barmes/barajas/mcgehee > maholm/cedeno/doumit/pearce
if cutch/pedro/tabata/walker/mcdonald improve this year, the pirates are DEFINATELY better.
i’m not saying the "streak" comes to an end.
That’d be an especially dangerous limb to go out on.
Nobody’s argued more than I have that DL and McClatchy (McLatchy to all the McClouth fans) left behind a mess of biblical proportions, but it’s not a valid excuse any longer. A GM going into his fifth year without yet putting together a team that has a chance to reach .500 is not getting it done. That’s too long to be setting the bar at making a run at 75 wins.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
mess of biblical proportions
I think it will take more than 5 years to clean up this type of mess. So I’m willing to give the FO a few more years. I think this team has a chance of reaching .500 this year. It would take some breaks here and there but I can’t think there is zero chance of a 7 win improvement.
by SLR on Jan 4, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
its actually
quite on pace. It will be year 5, the final transition year into a 7 year rebuild plan. the two years that follow will/should be the ones to pay out if anything. in the pirates case, i think its year 8 that makes us true contenders but thats a long ways off
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
but YOURE the one settling for 75 wins, or worse, 90+ losses
i dont believe NH is settling at all. you however, are on the thunder bandwagon, my brotha
We'll see
This is still a bad team, and you won’t find anybody who’s not a rose-colored-glasses-wearing Pirate fan who thinks otherwise. We can revisit this in nine months.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
What was your forecast for 2011?
Serious question.
As I’ve noted more than once, despite being very down on the ’09 and ’10 editions (I said that both would lose 100, which ’09 only avoided thanks to a rainout), I predicted 72 wins. Was I wearing rose-colored glasses?
the last sentence to me seems a bit scary...
A couple of years ago I swear I remember people say the Pirates are just marking time until, Cutch, Pedro, and Tabata arrive…. sigh
and
if those 3 hadn’t sucked dust all year (2nd half for 1/3) then we might have won the division and surely would have broke the streak
mcdonald got better as the season went on. morton had a good stretch late in the year too.
the bullpen struggled some, but it was definately the struggles of the young players, including cutch, that caused the 2nd half collapse
yeah.
McDonald made it out of the seventh inning by July or was it later than that? KC got pounded in mid-July then went to the DL and Paul struggled late in the year… I just don’t think we had what it took last year pitching wise to win the division.
Pitching certainly wore out
But if Cutch had produced at 2/3 of his first half rate, we would have won 3 more games, and if Presley hadn’t had a freak injury, there’s another win or two. Obviously not enough to win the division, but enough to generate some excitement about 81.
Point being that the August-September collapse wasn’t all regression and pitchers coming back to earth; some of it was simple bad luck, the kind that championship teams tend to miss (because if they don’t, they miss the playoffs).
and if tabata played like he did the first month
and maybe if Doumit or Lee didnt get hurt…
only 9 more wins and the team would have been at .500
If a frog had wings...
He wouldn’t bump his backside on the ground, when he jumped.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 8, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
A couple of years ago I swear I remember people say the Pirates are just marking time until, Cutch, Pedro, and Tabata arrive…. sigh
When you run that kind of strategy, your margin for error is very small. Thus far, Pedro has failed to emerge as the type of player he was forecast to become, and that failure closed any kind of window we might have had last year (and takes a big bite out a hypothetical 2012 window as well, unless he stages a miraculous breakout).
They’re still just marking time.....
Bingo! It’s pretty clear that this is exactly what they are doing. Not sure that the PBC has the financial wherewithal or the depth in prospects that we would be willing to deal to do otherwise – at least to the point where it would make an appreciable difference.
That’s the reality of it and it sucks.
"Don Mossi was the complete five-tool ugly player. He could run ugly, hit ugly, throw ugly, field ugly and ugly for power.
Now that's depressing.
I’m pretty much committed to opening day and Fan Depression Day, because GoldNeck and I have been going to those for years, and, of course, Gathering III, but after that, I might need to punt the couple-three other games I would usually go to.
And I hate that. I like going to the games, even when we’re … even THOUGH we’re always bad. But this, this is like not even trying.
If “punt” doesn’t work for you, try “treading water” at 70 wins. Ugh.
Go anyway.
It’s fun.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 4, 2012 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, yeah.
I’m kinda hopeless that way. Warm summer nights, cold beer, girls in shorts …
Hey man...
Snowy winter nights, cider ale, and leggings ain’t so bad either.
Plus, there’s still plenty of hope to go around in the winter. Barring last season, we can’t really say that for the summer.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
-Earl Weaver
the Reds are the only team that has improved this offseason...
the astros and cubs will be at the bottom while the brewers will probably struggle without both fielder and braun… the cards need to be healthy to compete, and with beltran/berkman/wainright, its kind of a big “if”
i believe the pirates will either be very very bad or be the surprise team of the central. i dont think there is a middle ground for 2012
i don’t know haha. i kinda feel like we’re gonna wind up 4th or 3rd in the division. I have a sinking feeling that Cubs swoop in late and sign Prince Fielder too
i think pena re-up's with the cubs, but you could be right.
the reds were supposed to win the division last season but failed, but at least they know they have a window to do something.
this is a very good chance for the Bucs, and i think we could do well mainly because of how the other teams have regressed
I see a 4th place finish
1. Reds
2. Cards
3. Brewers
4. Bucs
5. Cubs
6. Disastros
I think the Brewers finish ahead of the Pirates simply because I think Gallardo, Greinke and Marcum can keep them afloat til Braun returns. ARam should help fill in the vacuum left by Fielder’s departure to some extent and it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see them sign a Pena/Lee type to fill in at first.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I know
Was just using your comment as a way to pontificate, which is pretty much my primary speciality
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Haha, indeed
Tried to get the wife to view me as a great and noble hero…didn’t work
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
ok, so where do you think the Pirates finish?
I think the off-season so far has consisted of the team making big holes, despite having holes to fill, then filling the holes they created, without addressing the previous holes all together. Instead of filling 0/2 holes. They took 2 holes, made more (C, SS and SP, and maybe bench), then filled those holes. Now they have filled either 3 of 5 or 4 of 6 holes, giving themselves a nice platform to stand on, having fixed the mess that they created for themselves. Little, if any improvement, basically the same team as last year and we ll have to hope that many more players blossom than wither to even squint at 81 wins. They actually did nothing, but did a lot of work and made a lot of moves for the same product.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 4, 2012 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
i dont know
the reds were supposed to win last year, but didnt play well. the pirates were supposed to be the worst team in baseball, yet were not.
You're right
they were only 6th worst. I feel like the bucs basically stayed where they were. Good performance by some young guys will make the record better, and drop offs will make it worse. I would say that we are in the same range for wins this year as last. We are , IMO +- 2-3 wins in true talent from last year’s squad. Just waiting for the next wave to come through.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 5, 2012 8:55 AM EST up reply actions
according to whom?
it SEEMS like Dejan is just saying this based on his own opinion. I for one, feel that the Pirates are NOT done making moves. I believe they will sign a relief pitcher, and i think Mike Gonzalez would be a GREAT CALL (he is a FA right?). He would be amazing in LOOGY or 8th inning role and in PNC park i believe. I think it’d be an easy sell to him as a player to sign a 1 year deal with us, rebuild his value.
I also think a trade for a 1B is still a real possibility especially with an AL team.
That’s just what i think
the first sentence says a team source
by karreemofwheat on Jan 4, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions
that was about Maholm
or at least that’s how i read it.
Neither side is closing the matter, but the Pirates seem largely set with their roster.
is what i’m talking about. Just because we probably aren’t going to resign Maholm does not mean we’re done making moves/additions.
Tim Dierkes
Just today said the Pirates are know to have adding one more starting pitcher as a “priority.”
Of course the team is going to downplay adding a pitcher, makes them seem less interested in hopes of getting a better price. Other GMs, players and agents are generally better sources than the team is when it comes to free interest.
I think a 1B trade is a possibility
And I think a guy like Mike Carp or Clint Robinson might be had without giving away the store. But I’ll believe it when I see it.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
eh, its going to be a SP if anything
since Lee isnt coming back, a Jones/Mcgehee platoon will be in effect on opening day. i would love to see CRobinson come to the burgh, but NH wont trade any prospects.
a Jones/Mcgehee platoon will be ineffective
FTFY
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 4, 2012 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
i like mcgehee. jones, meh.
mcgehee is a decent enough hitter. he wont be fantastic. he’ll leave that up to cutch and pedro to attempt
That was more of a joke
that you put on a tee than a joke with true meaning. I think the McGehee/ GFJ platooon will be servicable, but we’ll see. Is McGehee the next Matt Diaz?
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 5, 2012 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
i dunno
mcgehee had two very good seasons for a “nobody”. diaz has been a platoon guy since he popped out the womb.
if mcgehee gets the ABs, i think he will be a fine pickup
i was fine with Diaz too. im a true believer in players bringing more than just stas. this is why guys like him, and overbay, can still find work despite the bats slowing down. the problem is, most fans want the team run like their fantasy baseball drafts.
Bringing back Gonzalez AND McLouth?!?!?
I hear Sean Casey and Chris Duffy are available. Victor Santos was just in town for the 2006 Pirates 5-year reunion. That team managed to win 67 games… bring them all back for an encore!!!
I jest, of course, and actually don’t mind Gonzalez as a LOOGY… but it feels very Norm-MacDonald-coming-back-to-host-SNL-after-they-fired-him to me. Or, more closely to home, the John-Russell-isn’t-good-enough-to-be-our-3rd-base-coach-and-two-years-later-he’s-manager move the Pirates tried to pull
Gonzo
actually saw him mentioned in a ‘scrap heap’ reliever article i saw on fangraphs. He’s a perfect bounceback candidate. With his former high profile if we get him back to form we can flip him AGAIN (but hopefully this time for someone better than Adam LaRoche). I like Gonzo, he’s got a great lefty arm and his periphreals were all out of whack last year, should bounce back
Both are interesting if they are cheap.
I would probably take Wheeler at $500K-$1M a year to try to flip him in July.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 4, 2012 11:50 AM EST via mobile reply actions
we need someone to replace Jose Veras
but looking at the stats Wheeler is on a decline.
pass
I don't understand the affinity for Maholm.
7 million dollars for a guy that is a combined 15-29 over the past two seasons isn’t worth it IMO. He had a nice ERA last year (5.10 in 2010) but I would rather see them spend that money on an upgrade at 1B and take my chances with the current rotation or agressively pursue Edwin Jackson or a more clear upgrade in the rotation. MLB has priced free agent SPs out of small market teams range for the most part and I’m fine with them not wanting to waste money or overpay for marginal free agent solutions.
You're looking at wins and ERA
Possibly the two most useless stats in baseball.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
ERA is a pretty useless indicator...
…when weighed against FIP and ERA+
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Whey
Only good with curds though
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO
If I can’t have the internet to blather on…I….have nothing.
At least when it comes to baseball. Everyone else I know in person is a “DURR HURR NUTTING IS CHEEP SALE THE TEAM” type
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
It's the worst
I try to have a reasonable discussion about the legitimate strengths and weaknesses of the front office and the roster and it’s like trying to talk to a sock.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
The point is...
…why use ERA when there are much other reliable indicators of how a pitcher is performing
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
We are sabermetricians. Resistance is futile. You will be assimilated.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
dork shield is engaged. im off to plunder wenches while thoust rub one out to Warcraft
by white angus on Jan 4, 2012 1:37 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
The amount of runs a pitcher allows during a game....
is still a valuable measuring stick to determine if I’m willing to pay him 7-9 million dollars. IF you want to put other factors such as defense and ball park into the fray I’m fine with that but it still doesn’t hide the fact that Maholm is a very average pitcher. He’s a ground ball guy with a bad defense behind him, who pitches into jams, creating a laborious 5 2/3 innings for any spectator. I just feel like there is a better way to spend that money.
I’m no sabermatrician but I do watch baseball and judge most players on what I see not what I calculate. What I see in Moholm is a slightly younger version of Zach Duke.
by SLR on Jan 4, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
IF you want to put other factors such as defense and ball park into the fray I’m fine with that but it still doesn’t hide the fact that Maholm is a very average pitcher.
I agree, but in baseball these days, average starters get $8-10M per year. That’s just how free agency works.
yet maholm may not come close to approaching that number
We’ll just have to wait and see, won’t we? Second- and third-tier starters typically need to wait for the big ticket items to come off the market before they see much interest. There wasn’t much reported interest in Edwin Jackson until Wilson and Buehrle signed, but now that he’s the best available FA starter, a lot of teams are working on him. Once Jackson signs, all the teams that wanted him but didn’t get him will move down to the next item on the list…
rumor has it, in Boston anyway, that Maholm will get a one year incentive laden deal
doesnt sound too much different than a Bedard, does it?
rumor has it, in Boston anyway, that Maholm will get a one year incentive laden deal
doesnt sound too much different than a Bedard, does it?
Maybe, maybe not. Right now, no parameters have been released, so there’s nothing to analyze. (And their signing of Cook may have taken them out of the running, anyway.)
once it comes off the back of baseball cards, then i'll believe you
until then, its not.
by white angus on Jan 4, 2012 5:14 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Because a product designed for children and packaged with free chewing gum is necessarily at the cutting edge of statistical innovation.
by Vlad on Jan 5, 2012 9:33 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
there is NO cutting edge for the innovation
all the new sabre shit is not needed, just a new math to state what already is known.
stop trying to pull me back in to the metric stuff. all it does is make 90% of the guys in here REC the stuff you say.
>:-P
and for the record, i may be in the minority on this blog...
… but in real world baseball, i am a god. just ask dan jenkins.
he played the game, ya know.
by white angus on Jan 8, 2012 11:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
for the record
i was an allstar ss in t-ball
by karreemofwheat on Jan 8, 2012 1:08 PM EST up reply actions
all the new sabre shit is not needed, just a new math to state what already is known.
The “new sabre shit” IS “a new math to state what already is known”.
I thought that's what WA was saying
I filled the sentence in as “all the new sabre shit is not needed, [it is] just a new math to state what already is known” rather than “all the new sabre shit is not needed, [what is needed is] just a new math to state what already is known.”
I wish I knew enough linguistics to really understand what the grammatical difference is between those two readings of the sentence.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 9, 2012 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
Get creative, find a way 2 sign Cespedes & sign upside NRIs
by Danatural08 on Jan 4, 2012 1:03 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Huntington has already stated the Yankees will price Cespedes far out of their range
Jorge Soler on the other hand might be more realistic. We’ll see.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Vlad said the remaining NRIs are an uninteresting bunch. I tend to go with his judgment on these things.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 1:31 PM EST up reply actions
He did say
that there were some interesting 1B/LF/RFs, but between Evans, McGehee, and Hague, not sure that kind of NRI matters.
Cespedes
least it sounds like we will at least place a bid
We’re apparently hoping all the other bids get lost in the mail.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 4, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I would think that it would do the Pirates no good to announce that they were going to be extremely aggressive in signing him.
Has it been announced if he would be available through bids submitted (like Japanese posting) or open negotiations(like free agents)?
by Danatural08 on Jan 4, 2012 4:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Cuban defectors are considered international free agents
I believe only NPB uses the posting system.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
It is very odd...
NH and the media seem to set the tone that “ho hum, we can’t afford this guy. Too bad.” Yet his name keeps popping up, and Neal likes talking about him as well.
If there wasn’t any interest Neal would probably tell reporters nothing has changed.
I’s LOVE to see them come out and be shock signer.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
-Earl Weaver
I'm sure they are going all in on Fielder
Lets see
1-Tabata
2-Walker
3-McCutchen
4-Fielder
5-Alvarez
6-Pressley/Jones
7-Barajas/McHenry
8-Barmes
0-Pitcher
Doesn’t that look better? Who needs Cubans when you can have a Prince?
I've smoked Cuban cigars.
And I’ve smoked Prince (Albert) cigars. Cubans are better.
For whatever that’s worth.
by Midnight Moose on Jan 5, 2012 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
that lineup does look fairly nice, but would flip walker with the one S'd Presley.
hopefully preSley wouldnt platoon with another lefty, but hey at least youre trying
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