Paul Maholm Apparently Agrees To Deal With Cubs
Many of the folks in the comments at that link seem to think this is a prelude to trading Matt Garza. It will be interesting to find out how many years and how much money he'll receive, relative to the option the Pirates declined a while back.
UPDATE by Charlie: Maholm tweets that he has, in fact, signed with the Cubs.
UPDATE by Charlie: It's for one year, $4.25 million (via MLB Daily Dish), with a $6.5 million 2013 option with a $500,000 buyout. That's just a fantastic deal for the Cubs, frankly.
5 months ago
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First they get Anthony Rizzo...
And now they’re gonna sign Paul Maholm? I miss Jim Hendry already.
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
meh
maholm will be gone from the Cubs by 2013 anyway.
but im still confused by one thing: Rizzo is better than Carlos Pena? I thought
Pena was the best 1Bman out there!!! wtf?!?!?!
by white angus on Jan 9, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
nope
but Overbay was the worst 1b out there. Rizzo is just a good prospect, who knows what he will be.
True.
He could be to the Cubs what Andy LaRoche was to the Pirates.
Oh except they didn’t give up their best player to get him….
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
I agree
although I wouldn’t look forward to seeing the Astros in the future. It’s just the Cubs with their money to be spend will be more competitive.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 10, 2012 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
btw MLBTR has a link saying Fernando Martinez is on waivers, I wouldn’t mind us picking him up, seems like the Muts never gave him a true shot & he’s only 23.
I’d probably put in a claim there. His 2012 ZiPS is only .242/.303/.389 (88 OPS+), but that’s not all that bad for a 23-year-old, and he’s still got most of the tools that made him a prospect in the first place.
even though hes done absolutely nothing in the minor leagues? ever???
you think he can turn it around in a different system, vlad?
even though hes done absolutely nothing in the minor leagues?
He’s been a reasonably productive minor league hitter. Career .265/.326/.465 at AAA over the past three seasons. That’s not incredible, but considering his age and the park and league, it’s not bad, either. I wouldn’t mind seeing whether a change of scenery perked up his bat a bit.
The medical stuff is the big red flag for F-Mart, and since I don’t have all the info there, I can’t really comment on that.
This
If we can get a relatively cheap waiver claim in, no harm in kicking the tires. Purely anectdotally (cuz I don’t do stats and don’t feel like looking them up), his arrival has been greeted each of the last two years by Mets broadcasters touting how he “forced his way up.” I believe he has done reasonably well at AAA and throughout.
Not sure where he’d fit in w/us, but if he gave a strong showing, might be a cheap trade chip. If he is on waivers with the Mets, we’re not obligated to put him on the 40-man, are we?
What does that mean?!
Meh
I feel like Martinez’s high prospect status was always linked more to a decent performance for being too young for the level than ever really having a good performance. I wouldn’t expect much out of him.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 9, 2012 9:11 PM EST up reply actions
if
he doesnt have to go on the 40man, though i dont care if he does, i always liked him. Pirates prospects mini series was on OF depth. At AAA, we have Gorkys and Marte potentially with an opening for the third spot if it isnt given to one of the unlimited utility guys we have stockpiled. So there is room for him to get playing time for another season with us if he “still” isnt ready for the majors
Thats what she said! - Michael Gary Scott
Brisbee
“”http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/1/10/2695294/fernando-martinez-new-york-mets-waivers">There’s a chance that Fernando Martinez clears waivers, but let’s be honest, there are teams that just live for players like this to come on waivers. Some of them may or may not be named after people who attack and plunder ships at sea."
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 10:00 AM EST up reply actions
how about that, a linking fail
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I was thinking that as soon as I saw that he’d been waived.
by Charlie Wilmoth on Jan 10, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
This is gonna turn out badly, isn't it?
Paulie’s gonna shut us out on 3 hits four times this year, isn’t he?
Here it comes
4-0, 0.90 ERA vs. the Pirates
4-13, 4.50 ERA vs. everybody else
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
I'm not mad we didn't resign him.
I am mad that we didn’t trade him at the deadline, along with a ton of other players. We should have been in complete rebuild mode as opposed to messing around to please the yinz. Hopefully Huntington won’t make the same mistake twice.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
We had a negative RS
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 9, 2012 8:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We had a negative RS/RA differential even at mid season
We were not actually competitive at any point in time.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 9, 2012 8:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Actually
The Pirates were plus 12 (196-184) prior to the Jerry Meals game and +2 (217-215) at the trade deadline. But who needs facts when you can make things up that better supports your point?
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 9, 2012 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
True
but that’s not what he was saying. He said they had a negative run differential which is wrong.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 9, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually your numbers are incorrect.
On July 31st, they were 406-410, which is negative. The Jerry Meals game was on July 26th, and they were 388-383.
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp
Nice try though. Maybe next time.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 9, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'll admit
I fucked that up…I copied and pasted the first 100 games from BB-Ref and the AutoSum on on Excel cut it off about halfway and I didn’t notice. I probably should have picked up on it because even the Pirates’ anemic offense was better than 1.96 runs per game.
Having said that, my point still stands as the Bucs had a positive run differential right up to the point when the wheels completely fell off their season.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 9, 2012 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly.
The Pirates were in first place on July 25th. Most people here probably felt they weren’t as good as their record, but you don’t give up when there’s a chance of making the playoffs or at the very least, ending the losing season streak at 18.
It sure is easy now to look back and say the Pirates were wrong to try to add players after the team fell apart the last two months. If the Pirates had hung around and won 84 games, would anyone really be complaining about them not trading Maholm, Hanrahan and others away?
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
by IAPiratesFan on Jan 10, 2012 6:57 AM EST up reply actions
Yes I would
And I was bitching back then too. .500 means nothing, the playoffs mean everything.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
by Kosstic518 on Jan 10, 2012 8:40 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
And they need to play for 2016
How about we just take that as your comment on every thread until 2016, and then we can find out what interesting things you’ll have to say then.
The fact that you cherry-picked a date to suggest that we never had a positive RD, and then sneered at someone who made a math error but was 100% correct to point out that we did, in fact, have a positive RD while in 1st place, says everything about how you wish to argue.
by JRoth95 on Jan 10, 2012 10:05 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
The date is not cherry-picked.
It’s the trade deadline, which is the last real day you have to decide if you want to go for it or sell off pieces.
You are spending time getting mad about somebody who correctly called that the team was not competitive, stuck by that all season, and was correct when the Pirates won 72 games last year. Seems really logical.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Fine
then use the actual, time-stamped trade deadline. When the deadline passed, the Pirates were up 5-3 on Philly, meaning their seasonal RD was -1. It was right before Jose Veras allowed the horrific game tying HR to Raul Ibanez (IIRC). That means that, by your logic, the Pirates should have known that they were going to fail because of that one run and should have thrown together a deal for Paul Maholm in a couple of minutes.
The fact was that they were 3.5 games back. They had just split a series with the Braves in Atlanta that, if not for the single worst call I can ever remember, would have been a 3 games to 1 series win. No their RD wasn’t strong. No their 2nd and 3rd order W% were lousy. But they were in contention. They were able to upgrade at 1B with D-Lee and upgrade (at least we hoped) at the corner with Ryan Ludwick. I don’t think you could say that the team had no shot and that the Brewers would seemingly never lose again.
I wrote this about a month after the Meals game. If you can honestly tell me that you saw this kind of historic collapse, one that hadn’t happened in baseball since the late 19th century, then fine. Otherwise, you can’t really say that there was no case to be made for throwing in the towel on a contending season, one in which the team had just set a new record for the highest attendance during a 3 game series.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 10, 2012 12:10 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
What about the 1977 Cubs?
On July 28, they were 60-39, went 21-42 for the rest of the season.
My uncle said that was the second worst season he lived through after the 1969 season.
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
by IAPiratesFan on Jan 10, 2012 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
I never said they would collapse epicly, I just maintained that they would not make the playoffs, and they did not. It was not that insane of a call, it was the likely scenario.
Speaking in generalities, a flat RD would lead to a .500. A .500 from the point of July 31st on would not make the playoffs. It was not likely that they were going to make the playoffs using that math, and based on my assesment of the luck that went into getting to that point on July 31st I thought they had a 0% chance at making the playoffs.
Again, my call was not prophetic or even impressive. It was the very likely scenario, which played out in the most likely way.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
agreed...
I don’t consider myself a yinzer… but would have been pissed had we been at the selling trade deadline.
Many of the Band Wagon fans would’ve been upset at us selling during the trade deadline if Huntington had done so.
I could only imagine…Bob Smizik’s line..if that had happened….He would start claiming…
Salary Dump, or Ownership is pocketing money and that’s it especially with the Attendance increase this past year.
Doesn't really matter what Smizik says. He wrote that stuff for years and the second the Pirates sniffed .500 attendance flew way up.
The same thing will happen next time they are viewed as competitive (even if they are not in actuality), regardless of how long it takes or what Smizik writes.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I think we will struggle with the Cubs...
and he will receive 2 year deal for about 6 million a year.
still super-irritated about this..
I’m no GM but I can’t understand why NH had so little interest in Maholm.
Maybe it’s for the best…the lower my expectations, the better chance the Pirates won’t rip my heart out.
Pride
I don’t think professional athletes like taking less money to re-sign with the same team.
Ex. everyone ever.
this!
i have said this before. Duke would have been the same way. there would have to be a huge incentive for a player to resign for less.
for the same reason 20 plus other teams had little interest
By that logic, Pujols was also pretty poor because there were 20+ teams that didn’t bother to bid on him.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 10, 2012 8:16 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So, he is saying that since Maholm is not good, teams did not bid on him. You are saying that since teams did not bid on Pujols, he is not good.
That is the converse of the original statement, and is not logically true.
by thecheeseisblue on Jan 10, 2012 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
He was using that fact as evidence that
Maholm is not good. I am using the same evidence to prove that Pujols is not good. I think you misread me.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 10, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
No, he is saying p implies q, a baseball player is not good, therefore teams did not want him. You are saying teams did not want a player, therefore the player is not good, or q implies p. That is the converse, and is not correct logically.
by thecheeseisblue on Jan 11, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Maholm just tweeted that he’s officially a Cub.
That’s a shame. He’ll beat the Bucs several times a year.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
Best wishes to Paul and his family
Class act and a pretty good pitcher as well.
by bosten7 on Jan 9, 2012 10:59 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Anyone else think Paulie will get lit up in Wrigley? He gives up a lot of fly balls (about 50%) and his low HR/FB should jump up considerably from the 7.5% he put up last year.
"A lot of flyballs"
Isn’t an accurate statement at all. Maholm is over 50% groundballs for his career, well above the league average. Actual flyballs (rather than line drives) have been under 30%, well lower than the league average.
Via Stats Corner: Wrigley played at a 102 park factor for RH batters hitting home runs last year, meaning two percent above average. Yeah, that’s tougher on him than PNC, but it’s still only about average difficulty for a southpaw. He’ll be plenty good for the Cubs. That team also has decent fielders everywhere on the diamond except shortstop, depending on if you think Soriano’s a good defender or not.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Jan 10, 2012 6:48 AM EST up reply actions
the cubs were one of the worst defending teams in baseball
now 2012 is here. rizzo is untested, stewart is okay. castro will be thinking about his possible sexual assault charge.
i think its time to bunt.
Castro’s horrific, but the rest of that team can field. Soriano, Byrd, and DeJesus all cover a fair bit of ground in the outfield. Stewart, Barney, and Soto have good defensive reputations. I’m not sure about Lahair (or whoever they’re planning on using at first base), but I doubt a first baseman’s going to break their defense.
No jinx no jinx no jinx.
by Suffering Buc on Jan 10, 2012 6:50 AM EST up reply actions
FWIW, UZR has Byrd, Soriano, Barney and DeJesus as good defenders, Stewart as decent. Castro sucks. LaHair is bad, too, but I guess it’ll be Rizzo probably. Losing Aramis and Fukudome was a big upgrade for them on defense.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
if UZR has soriano as a good defender, that should be good enough to get rid of UZR
that is all.
uncle nate
It is
pretty weird. Makes me wonder too.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Jan 10, 2012 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
Maybe he’s one of those guys like Nyjer, who looks clueless but covers more ground than you’d expect?
Going by components, it looks like UZR is giving him more positive credit for range than negative credit for errors.
That sounds right
My sense is that he’s prone to dumb mistakes/easy errors, but gets to pretty much anything you’d expect.
Plus, of course, his peers in LF include a lot of less-mobile sluggers – it wouldn’t take much to be better in the field than, say, Bay.
And, of course,
the moron on the WGN news this morning mis-pronounced his last name.
He also described the signing as “One man’s trash is another man’s treasure,” which I couldn’t really get too mad about.
I hate that little fucker on the morning news, though. More annoying than anything.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
I got two words for you:
Jon. Lieber.
Mark it down, Paul will be at least decent against everyone else, but he will own the Pirates.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
To be Honest
I never thought Paul was that bad. It’s just that when he pitched well, he could never win those close games because the Bucs would put up either 1 run or zero and lose 2-1 or 1-0. Or the Bullpen would blow a 4-1 lead for him.
however, the past shoulder injury this year makes you have to wonder about his durability as he has been very Durable for the Pirates. So I wish him good luck and hope we find a way to beat him when he pitches against us lol.
jesus god
that’s a STEAL. can’t believe 4.25 yowza!
I’m assuming club option??
I really am shocked by how cheap he signed for and that it was only 1 year. that kind of blows my mind.
Yep, it's a club option.
Yeah, the Cubs can have him for 2 years for a little more than it was going to cost the Pirates to have him for 2012!!
Former Buccos aren’t exactly pulling in the big dough, are they?
Doumit gets $3m for 1
Cedeno gets $1.1m for 1
Maholm gets $4.25m for 1 plus club option for $6.5m
Snyder ??
So, you could have all 4 Pirates with declined options for $10m. Bizarre.
Especially when you consider the options were:
Doumit: $15.5m for 2
Cedeno: $3m
Maholm: $9.75m
Snyder: $6.75m
For a total of $35 million!!
I guess the market for former Buccos is pretty low when they hit the open market.
by impliedi on Jan 10, 2012 9:28 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I guess you aren't awarded wins for shrewd beancounting
but NH is somewhat vindicated by what the market bore for those declined options. Bedard’s arm could fly off in the middle of his 2nd start, but I’d still take a flier on him rather than pay Paulie almost $10 mill.
Yes, but....
I would have been willing to bring Paulie back for what amounts to a 1 year 4.75 mill deal.
plus
a club option for $10M the next year or buyout of 500k.
So he could be one and done if he pitches poorly or is on the IR for sometime.
You’re only “right” if he doesn’t provide the kind of value next year that I said he would.
Otherwise, it just means that the Cubs got a bargain.
Should probably name terms
Since he’ll put up 3.8 WAR with an ERA of 4.50, and you’ll both claim vindication.
You're on!
I am prepared to admit at this point that I misread the likely market for Maholm. It blows my mind that he didn’t get two years guaranteed.
Just so I'm clear...
the crux of the two of you’s long-running Maholm thing boils down to acknowledging (or not) DIPS theory, right?
by tobynotjason on Jan 10, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
to be honest, im surprised too
i thought a two year deal for him was a definate. i just said he wasnt worth $9MM for one season, but 2 years @ $15 sounded about right for Maholm
The money is indicative of how low the rest of the league valued Paul....
and how the Pirates were right, dollarwise, to let him walk at a 9 million dollar price tag. He is a 4.50ERA pitcher in an average year so 5 million a year seems right.
but it makes me annoyed that we didn't rework his contract instead of letting the Cubs get him
If Maholm had got a much better contract than his option, I would’ve used it as evidence that we should’ve picked up his option. Since he got a much worse contract than his option, I’m going to say we should’ve tried to beat that offer.
All premised on the idea that I think he’s worth more than $5M a year.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 9:50 AM EST up reply actions
maybe because Paul wouldnt take less to pitch for the pirates?
thats PRIDE f-ing with ya
by white angus on Jan 10, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
i believe they would have spoken to him about coming back on a different deal
and Maholm wouldn’t do that. I can’t see him reworking his option to even within a million of what he signed for with the Cubs (over 2 years, assuming the 6.5m option is exercised)
by BurgherKing on Jan 10, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
i'll repeat my question from the ronny cedeno thread
since it applies here as well. does this validate NH’s opinion, much disagreed with by some here but confirmed by the open market, that paul wasn’t worth the price of his extension? is this a victory for internal valuation?
this reply could also go to GPT above
But it’s a victory for internal valuation only if Maholm doesn’t produce up to his option price. If the rotation is terrible and Maholm would’ve improved it, then it won’t be any consolation that NH correctly predicted that his option was more expensive than his market price. In fact, it makes me think that NH should’ve tried harder to beat the offers Maholm was getting — offer him $12/2 years, or $6/option $8, or something like that — because I think Maholm is likely to be good for that production, and it’s enough better than the Cubs offer that you’d like to think he’d think about it.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
And, of course,
we have no idea what offers NH did or did not make.
But I know you know that.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 10, 2012 9:59 AM EST up reply actions
right
That’s what i was trying to say, in a very unclear fashion, at the very end. If NH offered Paul something like $6/option $8, and Paul turned it down for a less lucrative offer from the Cubs (who aren’t even good), that’s sad. And also maybe an argument against player options, if they make it harder to resign the player when you turn down the option.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Wiithout knowing - as you did say (I was agreeing with you),
I’d conjecture that perhaps Paulie wanted out of the ’Burgh.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 10, 2012 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
I
was under the impression from statements he made that he wanted to stay in Pittsburgh…
by JSteelers86 on Jan 10, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, that's what he said publicly.
…I just get the feeling, y’know?
I have nothing in the way of facts to back this up. This is purely conjecture.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 10, 2012 11:20 AM EST up reply actions
thats just what players say
cutch will say the same thing the day before he signs with someone else
by white angus on Jan 10, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
Except D-Lee
I’m pretty sure I saw him jump in the river and start swimming away after the last home game vs Cincy just so he could get out of Pittsburgh as quickly as possible.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 10, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
He DID want to stay...
for about 7 mil a year
" I think this is probably the best team ever assembled. They talk about the Vince Lombardi Era, but I think the Chuck Noll Era is even greater. " - Mel Blount
by michaelbro8 on Jan 10, 2012 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
If the goal is to spend less per win, it’s a victory for NH. If the goal is to win more games, the Pirates are still stuck with a replacement level starter in Correia, while the Cubs have added a 2-3 WAR starter.
It’s easy to pay less for each win if you don’t win much.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Jan 10, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
exactly
With both Chen and Maholm off the board, the Pirates are basically left with Francis and a bunch of garbage. If they can somehow sign both Francis and Derrek Lee for Maholm’s $10M, I’ll give NH the benefit of the doubt. For now, I’m upset to see an average pitcher leave while we still have holes in our rotation.
Yeah
Chen and Maholm were the last two realistic options that I was hoping to bring in. E-Jax, Oswalt and Kuroda aren’t signing in Pittsburgh. Instead of going after a guy like Francis, I think I’d rather see the Bucs go with Bedard, J-Mac, Karstens, Lincoln, and Correia on Opening Day with Morton taking over for whoever turns into a pumpkin (or maybe the biggest pumpkin) when he is healthy. Use Owens, Locke, McPherson and the bumped starter as depth during the season. That is most likely a pretty ugly rotation but I no longer want any of the options out there. If the Bucs want to spend more money (which I hope the do) use it to go after Lee or Pena or maybe to make an offer for Cespedes or Soler.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 10, 2012 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
I really would like to see them to give Scott Olsen money to a bunch of Arm-Fall-Off Boy types — Rich Harden, Brandon Webb, whatever. If they’ll take NRIs there’s not much risk, and if one of them turns out to have recovered we get a bargain.
(I haven’t thought about how this would work with Indy’s rotation, though.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Harden
might be worth a look but I just don’t see Webb even close to the majors right now. Webb is in Mark Prior territory (I know Prior’s trying to make it as a RP now). Harden is more along the lines of somebody like Chris Young, who FWIW might also be worth a flyer.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 11, 2012 9:03 AM EST up reply actions
I think it’s clear that the Pirates are strictly looking at minor league deals now. In other words, they’re looking only for depth, not upgrades. Their off-season has been exactly what I said it would be—all their effort went into replacing the guys they dumped. They’ve made no effort to upgrade to any meaningful degree.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
I will be pretty pissed if they settle for minor league deals from here on out. The payroll’s looking like $45M or so, which is pretty miserly considering the attendance last year and how many times we’ve heard that they’d raise payroll when they started bringing in more revenue.
don't we have arb. coming up for a dozen or so guys?
by karreemofwheat on Jan 10, 2012 7:33 PM EST up reply actions
About 7...
Hanrahan, Jones, Karstens, Meek, Morton, Resop, McGehee.
And most or all of them will end up below the going rate ($2.5M for arb-1, and $3.75M for arb-2). I’d be extremely surprised if the Pirates go much more than $15M for the 7 of them ($4M or less for Hanrahan, $3M or less for Karstens and McGehee, $2M for Jones and $1M for the other 3). Add that to the $23M in contracts already signed, and $5-6M to fill out the roster, and we are looking at a $45M payroll like epoc noted. Which is right in the neighborhood that all 4 previous Pirates payrolls were with this front office.
The difference is that they said they would raise payroll when revenue increased. Revenue increased last year, so . . .
I’ll admit I believed Coonelly when he said they’d raise payroll and eventually level off in the $70-80M range. Honestly, I still believe it. More fool am I, I guess.
well damm
2/12 to aj burnett and 10 million to lee should be a steal to the f.o..
by karreemofwheat on Jan 10, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions
My understanding is that Lee doesn’t really want to come back here, without bringing price into it at all.
i think he wants to see what happens with prince f.
everybody has a price, is internal value coming into play?
by karreemofwheat on Jan 11, 2012 9:20 AM EST up reply actions
Annnndddd...
we have the first arby avoidance signing. Resop for $850K…so NH is already ahead (meaning lower) of the “estimated” payroll by $1.65M.
The “estimated” 2012 payroll you see on baseball-reference.com assumes that an arb-1 will get $2.5M, an arb-2 will get $3.75M, an arb-3 gets $5.25M, and an arb-4 (super 2 type player) gets $7M. We have no arb-3 or arb-4 guys.
Of course, the Pirates get to carry the $2M in buyouts for Cedeno, Doumit, Maholm and Snyder, as 2012 payroll.
BB-ref had the Pirates estimated 2012 payroll as $55.1M, so we know know that is down to $53.5M, and there are 6 more that will likely come in under the going rate.
One down, 6 to go.
I
just don’t get this.. Seems to me like the Cubs go a steal and we just watched it happen.. Certainly the Pirates could have offered Paul a similar contract. What makes it worse is that he goes to a division rival. Paul wasn’t lighting the world on fire, but come on… I love the Bucs, but this type of stuff is a puzzler to me.. Could Paul have been pissed about the Bucs not picking up his option?
That or
its tougher to take a paycut from your current employer.
by Wizard of Woz on Jan 10, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
THIS is what im thinking
if that happens, you go elsewhere. maholm may have been offered more than $5MM by NH, but pride prevents you from accepting that kind of paycut even if its more than what other teams were offering.
by white angus on Jan 10, 2012 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
wow..
I really liked Paulie, but I hope that isn’t true and the old ego didn’t get the best of him. Like cocktails said, I guess we will never know for sure…. That being said…I hope we mash us some Maholm this season.
by JSteelers86 on Jan 10, 2012 11:28 AM EST up reply actions
for what its worth, McGehee has hit Paulie well
by white angus on Jan 10, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
"Could Paul have been pissed about the Bucs not picking up his option?"
I think that’s entirely possible.
As I said above, this is just a gut feeling, without any evidence whatsoever.
I wish him the best personally, but I hope he comes to Chicago and “Grabows.”
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Jan 10, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
what? get traded again and not be in anyone's future plans?
by white angus on Jan 10, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
No....
Be overrated while not doing anything spectacular….
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
by IAPiratesFan on Jan 10, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
When I read that line
is sound ed my head like tomahto tomahto…
by BlindSquirrel on Jan 10, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions
Ketchup.
You gotta aim high to fail so big. - Trace Beaulieu
by IAPiratesFan on Jan 10, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
I wish Paulie well (except when he faces the Buccos),
but he needs a good infield D behind him, and I don’t remember the cubbies being very good; didn’t Starling have a bunch of errors ? I know Pena was pretty good, but he’s gone….
" I think this is probably the best team ever assembled. They talk about the Vince Lombardi Era, but I think the Chuck Noll Era is even greater. " - Mel Blount
Most of what makes Castro subpar...
is all the errors, not the range, correct?
His error rate is likely to, if anything, improve at his age. But assuming it does not and assuming the rest of the infield defense has decent range: Maholm’s ERA will likely benefit somewhat (and disproportionately vs. the simple difference between below average [Pirates] and average [Cubs 2012?] infield range, actually, since the “extra” errors will save him earned runs for which he’s more fairly at fault after the would-be 3rd out) and the world will decide he ain’t that bad.
This really seems like a steal UNLESS his shoulder is an issue. How NH doesn’t throw 2/12 or 2/13 guaranteed at him I don’t know. Pride is one thing, but I don’t think Maholm eats a few million dollars over pride.
OTOH, maybe NH thinks the Pirates defense is simply not good enough to make him sufficiently effective to be worth the money. If he believes “look, Paul is likely to post a .325 BABIP with our infielders in 2012,” I guess I see letting him go. But I see .300-.305-ish (given similar overall run environment in MLB to 2011), so… huh.
Pride could be working in another way
Paul could have convinced himself he’s guaranteed to get his option picked up and be saying he just signed a 2/11 deal. Meaning if he really wanted out or felt jilted, $1m wasn’t enough to sway him.
well i guess..
if we went out and signed a pitcher with a career record 20 games under .500 with a 4.35era and career 1.42 whip , coming off a decent season but ended by shoulder trouble for 4.5 million . we would just assume we were PUNTING!
This offseason is showing 2 things...
1) Neal Huntington may have a pretty good grasp on prices in the marketplace.
2) As soon as Neal mentions “internal value”, you can scratch that person’s name off the Pirates roster shortly thereafter.
Now if only he could learn to acquire actual good major leaguers.
if he is willing to trade prospects, he could.
but he wont, so i agree with you to a point. signing MLB talent isnt easy when youre in the Burgh, and it doesnt matter whom the GM or owner is right now.
If we are talking decent FA talent, then I agree with you that it isn’t easy in Pittsburgh. However, that’s not the only way to acquire MLB talent.
i know, its called trading, which NH hasnt done with his prospects
and i seriously doubt he will any time soon
Maholm definitely had more value to us
with PNC being lefty friendly . Maholm’s away numbers for his career
18-42 5.03 era 1.56whip
this is very telling as to why there wasnt significant interest and i would say that playing at Wrigley certainly wont help his numbers at all..certainly in Boston (another rumor we heard)he would have been shelled.
1 year of a higher end arm in Bedard at the same price and PNC helps him and his trade value. good move.
why can't we have both?
If Maholm had more value to us, we should’ve signed him for a bit more than the Cubs did. And if we made him an offer and he didn’t take it because he was angry that his option got declined, then the option was actually harmful to the team.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Jan 10, 2012 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
is he going to be better?
than anyone else on the staff ..especially considering a salary of 5mil?
JMac.. better
Morton ..better upside at this point
Karstens.. at least his equal
Bedard ..definitely better
correia/lincoln .. yes and equal
JMac.. better
Morton ..better upside at this point
Karstens.. at least his equal
Bedard ..definitely better
correia/lincoln .. yes and equalwhy should we settle for mediocrity which is the same thing as bringing Cedeno back. you pretty much know hes going to be mediocre.
JMac.. better
Morton ..better upside at this point
Karstens.. at least his equal
Bedard ..definitely better
correia/lincoln .. yes and equalwhy should we settle for mediocrity which is the same thing as bringing Cedeno back. you pretty much know hes going to be mediocre.i would have put chances that Maholm would be closer to ’10 than ’11 this year
by patient pirate on Jan 11, 2012 12:48 AM EST reply actions
sorry ..not sure how i got three there but i guess it made my point
by patient pirate on Jan 11, 2012 12:48 AM EST up reply actions
JMac.. better
Morton ..better upside at this point
Karstens.. at least his equal
Bedard ..definitely better
correia/lincoln .. yes and equal
Maholm is currently better than any of those guys except for Bedard and maybe Morton. Of course, Morton’s hurt, and Bedard can’t be counted on for a full season…
I think J-Mac
is better than Paulie right now. After what essentially amounted to extended Spring Training because of his early injury last year, J-Mac put up a 3.49 ERA with 130 K in 150 IP. Maholm, while an innings eater, is one year removed from being the worst lefthanded pitcher in the NL (statistically at least) not named Duke…
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 11, 2012 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
I tend to agree on J-Mac, but here’s a sobering factoid on Bedard and Maholm:
Yearly WAR since Bedard’s arm problems started in 2008:
Bedard: 1.0, 1.9, 0.0 (DNP), 2.4 — AVG: 1.3
Maholm: 2.8, 3.2, 2.0, 2.1 — AVG: 2.5
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
True
but I think most people accept that Bedard is a huge health risk. Over that same span, Bedard’s average bWAR/162 games is 4.2 compared to 3.3 for Maholm. Bedard is the better pitcher, but is a much bigger gamble. If the Pirates get unbelievably lucky and Bedard gives them 30 starts this year, he will likely be more valuable than 30 starts of Maholm. The more likely scenario, though, is that Bedard makes 14 starts and Maholm gives the Cubs more total production over 32 starts…
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 11, 2012 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Maholm, while an innings eater, is one year removed from being the worst lefthanded pitcher in the NL (statistically at least) not named Duke…
Only if you don’t correct for defensive support. Maholm’s 2010 xFIP is lower than McDonald’s 2011 xFIP. Similarly, Maholm’s 2011 xFIP was lower than McDonald’s, even if you give McDonald a mulligan on his struggles at the start of the year.
You also need to account for Maholm’s greater stamina. Over his MLB career, he’s averaged 6.18 innings per start, and he was at 6.24 innings per start in 2011. McDonald averaged only 5.52 innings per start in 2011, and pitched a grand total of 8 2/3 innings more than Maholm did last year, even though he made five more starts than Maholm did. Those missing innings put extra strain on the bullpen, dragging down all the relievers’ performances. They also frequently end up in the hands of long relievers of dubious ability, making it tougher for us to stay in games.
I think you also need to account
for age and experience. Next season will be J-Mac’s age 27 season and it will be Maholm’s age 30 season. McDonald has shown improvement in his time with the Pirates and took strides last year towards being a better pitcher. If he continues to improve his command, then his stamina will be better. Maholm on the other hand has seen his FB velocity and his GB% go in the wrong direction the last two years. He’s also coming off the first injury of his career. If you’re asking me which pitcher I’d expect to take a step forward in 2012 and which one I think will regress, I’d say it’s far more likely for McDonald to have a breakout year while Maholm breaks down.
by KentuckyPirate on Jan 11, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
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