BD Community Top 30 Prospects
by epoc on Feb 1, 2012 8:17 PM EST
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1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Starling Marte
4. Josh Bell
5. Luis Heredia
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Stetson Allie
10. Nick Kingham
11. Rudy Owens
12. Jeff Locke
13. Jarek Cunningham
14. Alex Dickerson
15. Zack Von Rosenberg
16. Colton Cain
17. Jordy Mercer
18. Zack Dodson
19. Clayton Holmes
20. Alen Hanson
21. Yamaico Navarro
22. Justin Wilson
23. Bryan Morris
24. Matt Curry
25. Jose Osuna
26. Gorkys Hernandez
27. Mel Rojas, Jr.
28. Ramon Cabrera
29. Matt Hague
30. Tyler Glasnow
There they are. Glasnow, Hague, and Mercer were the only ones who didn't appear on BA's top 30. They had Victor Black, Brandon Cumpton, and Evan Chambers instead. Of the players that both lists included, the standard deviation was pretty small. If you ignore Glasnow, Hague, and Mercer, the SD was just 2.6 between our list and BA's. Bryan Morris was the only guy with a >10 spot gap between lists (though Mercer, who was 17 for us and not on BA's list, and Black, who was 19 for BA and not even in consideration when our poll closed, probably should count as well).
21 of the players on our list were drafted; five were international free agents; and four came in trades. Ten are RHP; five LHP. Two catchers, four 1B, four MI, and five outfielders. Zero 3B, unless you want to count Navarro there instead of as a middle infielder.
I thought this project started a lot of great discussions, and even though the list is done, hopefully we can keep the discussions going here.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.
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This was a really fun project
so thanks epoc for heading it up.
As far as the list goes, it looks like a pretty logical list to me…I’m really not even sure where to start the discussion because I think there’s so much you can say. Honorable mentions? Prospect Tiers? Untouchables? Is it time for the season yet?
Honorable mention: Elevys Gonzalez. Pretty impressive line for a 21-year-old in the FSL. I know he lacks home-run power for a 3rd baseman (not too many Placido Polancos in MLB), but 36 doubles and 6 triples show he’s not powerless. If he can hit .300 with some pop in Altoona, then I think he’s going to start making these lists.
Comparison to Sickels
Found here:
All of Sickels’ top 20 were in our top 30 (unsurprisingly). Our highest ranked prospect who wasn’t in his top 20 was Jarek Cunningham at #13. The other ten guys were in his “others” listing.
The biggest gap between our rankings and his was again Bryan Morris, who he had ten spots higher at 13.
Not counting the guys not on his list, the root-mean-square-deviation was 3.38, in the unlikely event that I didn’t mess up the calculation. If we rank his “others” as 21-30 in the order we ranked them on our list (so Cunningham is 21, Cain 22, etc.), the rmsd is almost unchanged at 3.41.
Sickels didn’t even have Cumpton, Chambers, or Black on his “others” list either, which did include some guys who were getting votes in the last poll like Gonzalez, Santos, and Irwin, though not other vote-getters like Herrera, Ramirez, Cayonez, Holt, and Lambo.
Thanks for a great project, epoc.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
By the way
How is Victor Black, a 24 year old who has already lost 3-5 mph on his fastball, can’t throw strikes (5 BB/9), can’t get people out (1.626 WHIP) and has 6.2 IP above A ball the #19 prospect in our system?
Anybody feel like posting their personal next five?
FWIW, mine would look something like this: Gonzalez, Holt, Colla, Ramirez, and Herrera, in that order.
Hard work always beats talent if talent doesn't work hard.
"Matt Cooke and Evgeni Malkin for Brian Boyle, Derek Stepan, Brandon Dubinsky, Mike Rupp, and a first round pick." -JackCampbell
How many brooks would a Brooks Laich like if a Brooks Laich could like brooks?
Ramirez
Herrera, Ryan Hafner, Dovydas Neverauskaus, Colton Brewer.
Might as well go upside.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 2, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Next five:
EXICARDO CAYONEZ
That is all.
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 4, 2012 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
What makes you like Cayonez so much, c42? I don’t see much to be excited about there, and it seems like he’s been surpassed by a bunch of other young OF in the system.
Agree
even if Cayonez could have faked his way through SS-ball this year, I’d be higher on him. Sure there is talent there and he was solid after being demoted but he was just so overmatched at State College that I need to see him bounce back a little before considering putting him ahead of guys like Herrera and Ramirez (just for example).
He does have a really cool name though…
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 4, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions
"He does have a really cool name though…"
BINGO!
I don’t really care where he ranks in the system, to tell you the truth. It’s just a great name, and I’ve kind of turned it into a personal chuckle / meme.
Great names… Exicardo Cayonez, Gift Ngoepe. Say them out loud – they “roll trippingly off the tongue,” no?
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 5, 2012 10:36 PM EST up reply actions
thanks for doing this, epoc
I ended up participating more than I’d expected to, due to some traveling, and it was good fun…
my next 5 as wg1of5 asked would probably be: Adalberta Santos, Harold Ramirez, Dilson Herrera, Elevys Gonzalez and Phil Irwin
Thing
that stood out to me first time I saw this list in finality. Mel Rojas Jr. at #27. Crazy and such a good sign to have a guy with those tools and upside being the #27 prospect in the system.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 2, 2012 4:12 PM EST reply actions
The only ones that seem misplaced in my opinion are:
Owens, who I think is a bit too high, and Morris and Wilson, who I am a bit more bullish on. It was a fun exercise.
Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you
Great project
taps into the croudsourcing concept that has become so popular lately.
On a side note, Fangraphs is croudsourcing broadcasters. The Pittsburgh team can be voted on here.
What?
Marte’s is a 23 year old four tool player who, by the way, displayed real power for the first time last season so he could potentially be a 5 tool guy. He’s never hit below .312 at any level and cut down on his strikeouts last season. He’ll make an appearance in the majors at some point this year, I promise you, barring a complete and total implosion.
Marte’s coming along exactly how we’d hope. The only real hole in his game right now is his inability to draw walks.
Forgive me if I’m misreading you, but your comment struck me as something one might say about a guy who’s 26 and still hasn’t debuted in the majors yet.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Not to pile on
here but I think your comment could be applicable to half a dozen other guys but not Marte.
"Don Mossi was the complete five-tool ugly player. He could run ugly, hit ugly, throw ugly, field ugly and ugly for power.
In order to be a good team we need to make trades.
Looking at the holes in the big league club and the holes in the minor league system, there is no way that we can fill all of our needs within. We have a ton of pitching all up and down the scale. We hope that we can at least get a number one guy out of what we have. Face it the Pirates will never trade or sign for a top pitcher.. the price is too high. With as much talent as we have, I think that our rotation will one way or another shape up in the next few years into something very good. I also don’t worry about the bullpen. Finally, the outfield is going to be fine and deep. Maybe we can figure out our catching internally, but I think that is a 50/50 deal at this point. I think Walker will be at 2nd for the foreseeable future so I don’t worry about that and I even like Barmes at SS. It would be nice to have a young stud in the minors, but I am more worried about getting defense out of our SS than having a top talent there. The problems come in at the corners. As stated, we don’t really have anyone behind Alvarez and right now is anyone willing to bet he is going to live up to the potential. He very well might hit 30 homers in a season, but he also could struggle for the next couple of years and we don’t have anything on the horizon to fill in there. 1B is the other major issue. We might have 4 1B in our top 30 but is anyone sold that we will have our future 1B from that group. Is there a 30 or 40 homer guy in the bunch? Hague might have a decent bat and has done really well in the minors, but he strikes me more of a decent bat at some other positions without the defense to play them. Curry came out of nowhere last year and then started to trail off. I guess the overall assumption is that we are going to be doing a lot more wishing that one of these guys turns into something than anything else. I just don’t see how we are going to become a complete team without a couple of big time trades where we start selling off some of this talent in the minors. Im not saying it has to be done today, but over the next 2 to 3 years I think we are going to need to make at least 2 blockbuster type(keep this in perspective of the Pirates) deals to fill needs. We are set up nicely to do so, but I hope when the time comes that NH pulls the trigger rather than hoping we are going to figure it out from out minors.
I agree with the general principle
that the Pirates are likely going to have to make a trade or two to push themselves into contention. However, I think timing is an important factor here. Not to put everything on one guy’s shoulders but I think a lot of that time frame depends on Pedro Alvarez. If the Pirates have a legit cleanup hitter and 3B/1B already in the system and cost controlled for the next 5 years then it will go a long way by 1) making the team better and 2) eliminating one hole that needs to be filled and allowing for more resources to be dedicated to the remaining weak spots.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 3, 2012 6:08 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly
That’s why I’d wait a year or two.
Hey KP, mind shooting me an e-mail. McCutchenisthetruth@gmail.com. Got a few things to ask you in private. Cool if you don’t want too.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 5, 2012 12:14 AM EST up reply actions
Just sent something
lemme know of it doesn’t come through…
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 5, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
everything depends on pedro
i think it probably hasn’t been harped on enough. do you have a 35hr guy or don’t you. you aren’t going to get one in free agency. without it, no matter how dreamingly the pitching might end up, you aren’t going to have much of a chance.
you hate to put too much pressure on the kid, but maybe we’re too worried about that. this isn’t new york. yeah, he moved through the system a little bit quickly, but he wasn’t a high schooler. we need him and maybe it would help to pressure him more. it’s easy to say he’s pressing and pressure would be wrong but i’m not so sure.
hopefully signing mcgehee turns out to be a bigger move then we realize in that it inspires pedro. maybe the challenge will push him to reach his ability.
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