seems to be a fair amount of optimism that #yankees #pirates deal involving aj burnett will get done.
4 months ago
Charlie Wilmoth
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Hooray Optimism!
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
Optimism?
What the hell is that? Being a Pirates fan, I have forgotten the meaning of this word.
by Schide on Feb 10, 2012 1:44 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
It means thinking there’s a 60% chance of a rainout the next time we play the Brewers.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
by WTM on Feb 10, 2012 2:28 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I wonder if Burnett will ask the Pirates for round-trip Limo rides for his wife like he did in Toronto
I have a pretty sweet mustache if not.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
by Cheap Beer on Feb 10, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Duck rides!
He’s holding out for one of those duck tour boats to bring himself and his entourage to the ballpark via the river, driving up into the ball park and depositing him at the pitcher’s mound, all while accompanied by a live brass band playing the AJ Burnett theme, which will be written by John Williams for the occasion.
by Aphthakid on Feb 10, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
That would REALLY work
if he went to Miami…
________________________________
Free your ass and your mind will follow.
by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 11, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
Goodness knows
I’m refreshing BD often enough for when the news comes.
May I suggest that this is a good thread for guesses about final terms? I’ll start:
Pirates pay $10.75M and throw in a non-prospect – maybe not as washed up as Alderson, but no one within sniffing distance of the Top 30. Calvin Anderson?
i m waiting for it to happen
before posting about how Burnett will imediately turn into a pumpkin.
(fwiw, I’m in favor of a deal, given the right terms)
Does saying "I'm in favor of a deal, given the right terms" actually say anything?
In other words, I could say that about any deal.
Burnett is a good option based on the lack of depth for our staff. If nothing else, he will provide ~200 innings or so this year, probably with a low 4 FIP and between 7-8 Ks per 9. Essentially, he is a cheaper, older, with less upside-version of E-Jax.
I’m in favor of it, too, provided – like Charlie states – we don’t give up Garrett Jones. We should obviously be willing to move GJ, but not for Burnett.
its too bad you choose to jump to comment
i’ve posted enough on this already that you should look for the context and intent, and not jump to making your second comment on the board.
Oh, and you’d have found mroe info if you looked 1 comment down. Good luck!
oh yeah
Pirates pay $12M and give up Nate Baker and get back AJ Burnett (and 21M salary) and Adam Warren
Go big or go home
Burnett, Swisher, Betances & $13MM in salary for Jones, Correia, Locke & G. Hernandez. :-)
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
The Yankees will immediately accept if we throw him in.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I thought it'd be pretty obvious I was kidding
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
No
Just because they pulled out something at the 11th hour doesn’t excuse the bad decision at hour 1.
by Wizard of Woz on Feb 10, 2012 2:07 PM EST up reply actions
+1
Especially when this appears to have been no better than Plan C.
Good day.
I'm not so sure this is true
If part of the Pirates decision towards not making a serious run at Maholm was that they had let’s say 5 options of how to fill his innings (Francis, Chen, E-Jax, Oswalt, and Burnett) and they truly believe that they could get one done and it would help them to improve the team as a whole, then they should get credit when one of those five plays out. It’s also not entirely true that this is an 11th hour option. Remember, the Pirates made an effort to get Burnett back in late December or early January. It may have taken a while to get it done, but it’s not like they totally sat on their hands for four months and then said ‘Oh shit! We need another pitcher!’
It is obviously debatable whether you’d rather have Maholm or Burnett, and I’m sure there are many on here who would rather have Maholm. However, it’s not beyond debate that the Pirates could wind up getting a better pitcher at a better price.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 10, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
Very well said, as usual.
www.drstrangeglove.com
by nycbucsfan on Feb 10, 2012 4:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'll buy that
Not 100% – ST starts in 4 days, which is awfully late to be handling something like this, but it may well be that, based on his Dec. discussion with Cashman, NH felt reasonably sure that they’d get another bite at the apple, and under acceptable terms.
As I said, if they find another 1B on top of this (it’s not as if Jones is an acceptable Plan A), I’ll call it a successful winter.
I'm not really sure that a Jones/McGehee platoon
isn’t average or slightly above average among NL first basemen. It really drops off quickly after Votto, and the platoon could realistically be close to an Ike Davis, Duda, LaRoche, or Helton.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
McGehee is just too big a question mark
I agree that the upside is acceptable, But the downside is close to zero WAR
I don't see
how they could count on the Yankees having rounded out their rotation, and still be in a position where they really wanted to dump some salary. We are fortunate that they are in this position, but I am not satisfied that they were hoping that the Yankees would still be stuck 4 months after declining Maholm.
To me, it seems obvious that even mid tier players will only come here via draft or trade. We had a chance to keep Maholm and let him go. Then, predictably we were rebuffed by a competitive offer to Jackson, and denied the opportunity to bid on Oswalt. I don’t remember rumors of them even bidding on anyone else. The Bedard pick up is a good bounce back gamble, but more of a side item than a main one.
As for the better price, we’ll see what the total damage ($+player) amounts to when it is all said and done.
by Wizard of Woz on Feb 10, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Same here.....
Bedard is better than Maholm. So, if you weren’t happy with not signing Maholm to a gross overpay, that misery should have been assuaged by the Bedard signing. If, otoh, you were still unhappy with the Maholm non-overpay after the signing of Bedard – and the subsequent possible acquisition of Burnett – then you are either Maholm’s wife (which means you’re hot and I want your number) or you simply can’t be satisfied.
Agree
The offseason is what, 5 months. What happens in month 1 is really no more important that months 4/5. So dropping Paul then, IMO, is no different than dropping him now.
Had they had the option to get him for less than half what his option was, then yes, they should have resigned him.
bw. What happens in month 1 is really no more important that months 4/5.
Important, I guess you are right. But its the process that upsets me. Consider two high school seniors. One applies to 10 schools, is accepted at 5, makes visits and decides on where his is attending in January. The other waits until May, is put on 2 waiting lists, and is accepted in August. Both got into school, so in the end, it really didn’t matter. But if these were your sons (or daughters, so not to be sexist) which route would you have preferred. Also, wouldn’t the more prepared student give you more confidence, going forward, that (s)he would make better decisions, or at least have a better process for making future decisions? Again, the end result isn’t always (and rarely is) the whole story.
Of course, if you thought they should cut Maholm in the first place, it really doesn’t matter.
by Wizard of Woz on Feb 10, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
Was this supposed to make sense?
Your hypothetical “senior” situation, how does that relate at all to the pirates situation with Maholm?
Sorry,
got inturrupted a few times while typing that, and didn’t really review it. I feel that the Pirates are waiting to the last minute here, 4 days before ST, to fill a hole that they could have filled about 4 days after the WS. The fact that they are fortunate that the Yankees still have maneuvering to do, and want to shed salary, and have added to their rotation enough to want to dump Burnett, at this late a time is great. But I hate to think that this was their strategy, and I tend to think that they were happy with what they had until this fell into their lap. Its not like the Pirates are offering anything special here. They are just offering to take some salary and a player off of the Yankees’ hands. Any other team could swoop in at any time and offer a slightly better package, and the Bucs would lose out. With all the press that this is getting, I almost think that is what they are hoping for.
In all, we are fortunate that this came through, but I hate the strategy.
by Wizard of Woz on Feb 10, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sure, I get that.
The pirates wait and see approach can be frustrating.
Duke, Gorzo, Snell...
Maholm is the next in the line of former Pirate starters who will go on to prove themselves completely ineffective elsewhere.
Gorzo?
Dude was worth 2.7 wins in 175 IP with the Cubs. Pretty sure the ’09 and ’10 teams could have used a couple more wins.
Gorzo + Grabow for Hart, Ascanio, and Harrison
Ascanio’s arm blew up, Hart, meh. The problem is that they might not have needed to throw in Gorzo to get a fair amount of that back; Grabow was going for inflated middle reliever rates. (Look at the next contract the Cubs gave him to see how they overvalued him.)
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 10, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Hey the guy does give you 200 innings
Plus he has to be more effective in the NL. Man the Yanks really don’t want this guy on the team, every Yankee fan I know loathes him.
Burnetts lifetime numbers
are better than Maholms
But he's older
For 2012, everything else being equal, I probably take Burnett. Add in 2013, and I get tempted by Paul. I think Burnett has a bigger collapse risk over the next 2 years, but short of collapse, I think Burnett is going to be more productive (and yes, I love the IP).
Better numbers facing much tougher competition. 34 is up there, but I think he has 2 more in him before the wheels fall off. Especially in the NLC, which frankly, might be the worst division in the history of baseball this upcoming season.
Cubs are a big question mark
I know you’re being facetious (hope so anyway), but the Cubs have a few talented guys; with a bit of luck, they could be well into the 70s for wins. I’d say a division with 3 teams between 83 and 93 wins, 2 teams between 72 and 78, and 1 team with 15, isn’t world-historically bad.
That said, it could also end up with 2 teams competing in a drive for 85, with the next 3 all mired in the 70s.
Thing is, the hitting is very, very thin, but the pitching is pretty solid – relatively few scrubs, and quite a few 1/2 guys (Garza, Greinke, Marcum, Wandy, Latos, Carp, Wainwright…).
15 for the Astros? Might be a little optimistic.
by thecheeseisblue on Feb 10, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
man, the snow out my window is in some serious denial.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
not mine
I live in northern Vermont, it’s almost the middle of February, and I haven’t had to shovel my driveway yet. WTH, weather?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 10, 2012 5:03 PM EST up reply actions
if he does
and win at least 12 games he’ll get the Comeback Player of the Year award hands down
So does Correria go to bullpen
Or do we look to deal him now
were it me at the helm
i’d attempt to trade correia for a similarly bad contract (but also expiring after this year) but in a different area. Maybe try to snag a somewhat effective relief pitcher that is way too expensive – something like that. Brad Lincoln is also better than Correia RIGHT NOW – then we have a slew of other options that are also probably better
no one wants Correia
so long relief he’ll go with Lincoln, in his final option, send down to Indy once again
If they pull this off
it will be a successful off season to me. Bedard and Burnett. Barmes over Cedeno. Both injury prone catchers gone.
Actually this was funny.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I'd hate that.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
Me too
If they want Mercer, they need to pay almost everything. Their #1 goal is salary relief, which means they can’t expect much in return.
Mercer has almost no shot at being a regular (esp. not behind Cano and Jeter), but he seems pretty likely right now to provide some value as at least a UT.
I’d consider $8M and Mercer, except I’d rather pay $2.5M more and keep Mercer.
give mercer one more year
he was pretty decent last year and reports were that he improved defensively
Agreed
I think JRoth’s points are right on, but I’m also willing to give Mercer one more year before I confirm that he has no shot at being a regular.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
I say
take on more money, and get something more from the Yanks.
by insane_sanity on Feb 10, 2012 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
I’m looking at home run charts, but am not completely conversant with them. Is it right that Burnett threw very few home run balls that would not have had home run distance at PNC? It looks like there are very few that could be run down in the Notch?
by sanny manguillen on Feb 10, 2012 2:42 PM EST reply actions
Instead of looking at Yankee stadium vs. PNC park home run charts, look at NL pitcher vs. AL DH batting splits.
by ATribeCalledGreg on Feb 10, 2012 2:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
But HR/FB rate tends to normalize for pitchers with basic MLB caliber stuff...
which Burnett most certainly still has.
It’s not that the balls that were actually hit last year wouldn’t be home runs in PNC, it’s that it’s very likely far fewer balls will be hit that far by the hitters he’ll face this year, ANYWHERE.
by tobynotjason on Feb 10, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
As I said on the previous thread, they should be running from this guy
I don’t really get the “AL DH” stuff, but I’m seeing a 35 year old pitcher who hasn’t been good the last two years, who has been way more successful in his home park than elsewhere, and who finished badly last year.
Is he the worst fielding pitcher in baseball? 19 errors in four season, with fielding percentages of .868, .862, .893, and .870.
by sanny manguillen on Feb 10, 2012 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Burnett is a clear upgrade
Burnett the last two seasons he “hasn’t been good”: 377 IP, 2.9 fWAR
Over the same span…
Jeff Karstens: 299 IP, 1.3 fWAR
Kevin Correia: 285 IP, 0.0 fWAR
Charlie Morton: 251.1 IP, 2.1 fWAR
James McDonald: 242.2 IP, 2.1 fWAR
Erik Bedard (reaching back to 2009 since he was out for 2010): 212.1 IP, 4.3 fWAR
In terms of pure talent, Burnett would still be the clear #2 starter on the team on opening day and he has zero peer on the staff at present when it comes to his ability to soak up innings.
If Morton comes on this year, he could wind up as the #3…but, $10MM (the magic number the Pirates would pay according to reports) over 2 years is not too much to pay a solid #3 starter.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
If I read it right, BB-Ref has Burnett at +0.6 over the two years. Doesn’t that seem a much more likely value for someone the Yankees are paying to give away?
by sanny manguillen on Feb 10, 2012 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
As we were discussing in the GFJ thread
bWAR is more focused on outcomes, fWAR on performance (which, in turn, is projectable). The Yankees don’t give a crap about performance, they care about outcomes.
Another team in their position would look at his numbers and think, “Bounceback candidate, we shouldn’t sell low.” The Yankees look at his numbers and say “Get him the F out of here, we can do better.”
It’s nice to be rich.
Wouldn’t there be other suitors if that were the case? I guess they could have been no-trade clause teams
It’s also possible that some other teams have filled up their payrolls or rosters.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 10, 2012 8:17 PM EST up reply actions
His peripherals were still above average and all the advanced metrics...
peg him as much better than his ERA. Pitchers of basic MLB caliber just don’t have much control over HR/FB or LOB%. The former was terrible and the latter bad last year. Given normal rates and similar results with regard to the things he controls (K%, BB%, GB%) he should be an above average pitcher.
by tobynotjason on Feb 10, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
Only the Pirates would view GFJ as a deal breaker...
I mean I’m all for making it happen without including Jones but if they screw this up and don’t get this done I’m going to be sick.
Jones at first is still a hole…not hot dog in a hallway hole but still a nice size gash.
Jones
at least gives the Pirates a plan at 1B. It might not be a great plan but a platoon of Jones (who hits righties well) and McGehee (who crushed lefties until last year) at least seems like the team has a direction at that position. Without Jones, what is the plan? Give it to McGehee full time? He’s coming off a horrible year and really has never played 1B extensively. Try to work Matt Hague into a platoon? For one thing, I don’t like the idea of assuming a platoon with work because a guy has reverse platoon splits. Secondly, the Pirates just seem to have no faith at all in Hague. Maybe he really can play but he seems like an pretty big gamble. Evans? The glove is nice and maybe he really can hit but again would people really be happy going into the season expecting a 26 year old waiver wire pickup who has never had more than 200 PA’s in a ML season to be our starting 1B? He also wouldn’t fit as a platoon partner with McGehee becuase they are both righties.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 10, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Right...
I agree with all of that….but I’m still not calling off a trade for him.
I think McGehee can handle first base defensively I don’t even hesitate to say that. IF you can play 3rd you can play 1st that’s my logic. Plus Jones is a pretty shitty first basemen and for some reason has become a fan favorite. Once again though I’m fine with keeping him if the deal can still get done.
I want to trade for Brandon Allen if we are talking best case scenario. I think trading Jones at least forces the FO to recognize the issues at first base instead of assuming the platoon will work out.
agreed, keeping Jones gives us a plan at 1B *for 2012*
the way arbitration salaries escalate, there’s no way Jones is still on the Pirates’ roster this time next year
Agreed.
Not a huge fan of G. Jones but he is an average major league player (although at 1b he’s probably below that) and we have no one to take his place unless Pedro moves to 1b (which I think should happen but whatever)
Keeping G Jones on the team isn’t taking any bats away from someone who has a future with the team so I think it would be best for Bucs to not trade him in this deal if they don’t have to.
I'm in favor of this.
My guess, Pirates wind up giving up Josh Harrison and pay 9.25 – 9.5 mill of Burnett’s contract. Yankess eat the rest.
Wow, everyone is suddenly optimistic again!!
Bucs Dugout needs some bipolar medication for sure.
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
until spring training actually starts, these kind of stories are all we got, man
don’t harsh my buzz, dude! :p
Oh, I'm ecstatic about this too!
Burnett from the AL East to the NL Central is exactly the player we need!
It’s just a bit funny to me that so many were ready with the noose two weeks for perceived inactivity, and now if they land Burnett w/o paying anything of significance (which looks to be the case), this is suddenly NH’s best offseason to date.
If Burnett is high 3’s in era, Bedard stays pretty healthy, and Pedro turns out to be league average… then we have a pretty damn decent shot at breaking that majority mark!
I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson
by Cheap Beer on Feb 10, 2012 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Sometimes one transaction can indeed turn things around
Worth noting here too that Jayson Stark just said on Baseball Tonight that Huntington could go after Blanton or Lannan after landing Burnett.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Scratch that, gave bad info
Blanton and Lannan seem to be fallback plans if the Burnett thing falls through
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
no, stark said huntington is going after Burnett OR Blanton OR Lannan. not two of the three. said huntington is look to just acquire one of them
Yep, corrected myself there
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
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