Kevin Goldstein's Top 101 Prospects (Taking ?'s on Twitter Now)

by rj.reynolds on Feb 13, 2012 3:25 AM EST

Luis Heredia not only makes Kevin's list but does so by a healthy margin. The entire Top 101 is available to view here (whether you're a subscriber or a nonsubscriber):

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=16020

Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon both rank about where you might except them to, however take a look at who precedes Cole on the list by three spots.

If you live on the West Coast or just up late you can hop over to twitter and throw questions you might have about the list his way:

twitter.com/kevin_goldstein

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

6 in the Top 76, 5 in the top 56, and 4 in the top 43. Top heavy or not that’s still not bad at all.

by rj.reynolds on Feb 13, 2012 3:56 AM EST reply actions

I count Sano as a Pirate.

So……3 of the top 13 :)

by Woo! on Feb 13, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions

Wow

Luis Heredia @ #42

Has he been that high anywhere else…?

by insane_sanity on Feb 13, 2012 5:43 AM EST reply actions

Not even close.

by rj.reynolds on Feb 13, 2012 6:11 AM EST up reply actions

is the pleasant surprise on this list. I’m a big Heredia guy too – i mean he could be a good SP in the ML at the age of what? 18? 19? Insane. If he continues to develop and get better starting his career that early gives him chance at HOF type numbers! haha insanely optimistic i know but that is exciting. we could take him all the way through arbitration and then sign him to any kind of extension that would be covering all his prime years

by Mingy on Feb 13, 2012 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

Don't get me wrong

I love Heredia and truly believe his upside is through the roof. But he’ll be 17 (actually he’ll turn 18 but this is his “age 17” season) this year and will open the year no higher than State College. I can’t image he’ll be in Pittsburgh at all next year, let alone being a good SP in Pittsburgh next year. Plus, the Pirates don’t appear to be in any kind of rush with their pitching prospects. I think even the most optimistic of timelines puts Heredia in the bigs as a 20-year old.

by KentuckyPirate on Feb 13, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed. A million things have to go right for him to be in Pittsburgh in 2014. Even in the Pirates Top 11, Kevin Goldstein put Heredia’s ETA at 2016.

by Dorn on Feb 13, 2012 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

From the chat today. Re: Heredia

ttt (Manhattan): You have Luis Heredia ranked much higher than others. What factors led you to do this? Is it just the pure upside potential?

Kevin Goldstein: I often talk about how few true No. 1 starters there are in baseball. There are also very few prospects who even have a SHOT at being a No. 1. Heredia is one of them.

by rj.reynolds on Feb 13, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting

The more stat-oriented guys, Goldstein and Law, like our prospects better than the BA types.

Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!

by WTM on Feb 13, 2012 7:15 AM EST reply actions

Goldstein and KLaw aren’t any more stat-oriented than BA. Those three sources are all pretty hardcore about the scouting perspective.

Also, BA hasn’t released their top 100 yet, have they? What are you basing the “BA vs. KLaw/Goldstein” thing on?

by epoc on Feb 13, 2012 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

What are you basing the "BA vs. KLaw/Goldstein" thing on?

There have been a few indications as to BA’s feelings on our prospects, from the Q&A they did when the team-specific ranking came out. If nothing else, it seems obvious that BA doesn’t like Grossman as much as some other analysts do.

by Vlad on Feb 13, 2012 10:51 AM EST up reply actions

There’s also the fact that BA ranked the Pirates’ system 13th while Law ranked it 8th.

Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!

by WTM on Feb 13, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

The BA guys all did their top 50s in the handbook. Taillon and Cole were the only Pirates in any of them.

Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!

by WTM on Feb 13, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions

Good to know.

Didn’t get mine yet – still saving up my nickels.

by Vlad on Feb 13, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

Speaking of books,

didjoo get my mail?

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by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 13, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

The Pirates’ section of it was . . . disappointing. Not as informative as last year’s, but that’s all I want to say here.

Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!

by WTM on Feb 13, 2012 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

look at whom finished one spot above Taillon

maybe NH and his crew know more about prospecting than many give them credit

by white angus on Feb 13, 2012 9:07 AM EST reply actions

And Cheslor Cuthbert is #83

The FO is doing a great job of identifying talent for other people to sign.

Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!

by WTM on Feb 13, 2012 9:55 AM EST up reply actions

absolutely

by white angus on Feb 13, 2012 10:22 AM EST up reply actions

Wow

Awfully high on Dylan Bundy huh?

The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
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by glass0941 on Feb 13, 2012 9:17 AM EST reply actions

I think the main reason some people arent as high on Bundy...

Is his frame, he is “only” 6’0" tall. Some scouts/analysts dock him for that, and those are the guys you see him lower on the lists. For those who dont read much into his size, all seem to be very high on him.,

by goodtymes31 on Feb 13, 2012 10:11 AM EST up reply actions

I am really surprised that people are so high on Bundy over Taillon. i wanna put it this way, if Bundy was in the 2010 draft, who do you think all the scouts would have rated higher? Bundy or Taillon? I am just awfully surprised that mostly all of the scouting services rate Bundy higher than Taillon even though Taillon is the one with professional experience and to take it back to pre draft, I think the competition Taillon was facing in Texas was probably better than that of Bundy’s in Oklahoma. Being that Taillon’s school was in the Houston area and Texas is definitely known as a big time baseball hotbed with Florida, California, and Georgia. i remember some people were even saying that Taillon would have been the sure-fired #1 overall pick in 2010 if Harper wouldnt have been available and left high school 2 years early. alot of teams even had Taillon as their #1 on their boards anyway even in front of Harper

by rinsana11 on Feb 13, 2012 10:57 AM EST reply actions

There was a Fanshot about this

Bundy is probably the more polished of the two, his change is farther along and his command is a little better. Having said that, I’d go with Taillon because 1) he has more of the prototypical “workhorse” frame and 2) I think Taillon’s curve is the best pitch that either player throws. Neither is a bad prospect and you could probably argue pretty convincingly that the probability of future stardom for the #6 ranked prospects and #13 ranked prospects is negligible.

by KentuckyPirate on Feb 13, 2012 12:19 PM EST up reply actions

more polished of the two? uhh dont you think a guy with already a year of professional ball under his belt would be more polished and acclimated than a kid that has only pitched HS ball in Oklahoma? obviously that is up for debate, but like I said if both were in the 2010 draft, who do you think would have gone higher? I think majority, if not all of MLB GMs, wouldve taken Taillon over Bundy because I think there was alot more hype and praise for Taillon going up the the 2010 than Bundy for the 2011 draft

by rinsana11 on Feb 13, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions

Having a year of pro ball

doesn’t necessarily mean a guy is more polished. Stetson Allie has a year of pro ball, but I don’t think you’d find a lot of people who would describe him as polished. None of what I said was meant as a knock on Taillon. Again, I think he is a better prospect than Bundy. However, Bundy probably has the cleaner, more repeatable delivery. If both players were in the same draft, you’d probably see a split similar to what we saw this year with Bauer and Cole. Bundy was also not without his pre-draft hype.

I asked a veteran scouting director this question, and he texted back about Bundy: “Best HS arm/pitcher I’ve ever seen!!!” -Jim Callis in May

by KentuckyPirate on Feb 13, 2012 5:20 PM EST up reply actions

but a year ago Taillon had 4 pitches, was very polished and there were no questions of his command. Perhaps it’s just that only relatively few scouts have seen Bundy while Jameson is more exposed.

“Mystery door syndrome,” I’ll call it.

by Mr. E on Feb 13, 2012 5:48 PM EST up reply actions

Or the

shiny new toy syndrome

by NastyNate82 on Feb 13, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions

this

I could feel his muscle tissues collapse under my force. It's ludicrous these mortals even attempt to enter my realm. ~~ Mike Tyson

by Cheap Beer on Feb 15, 2012 2:58 PM EST up reply actions

Like how we got 6 in the top 101

I would probably have Bell and Marte back to back at 42. and 43. though and have Heredia at 56.

by BigB2323 on Feb 13, 2012 11:55 AM EST reply actions

I find it interesting

That the ranking of our prospects have improved but it is still largely based on talent moreso than minor league success. The Bucs really need to have some breakout seasons by minor leaguers in 2012.

Good day.

by Uncle Nate on Feb 13, 2012 12:44 PM EST reply actions

Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon both rank about where you might except them to, however take a look at who precedes Cole on the list by three spots.

I had Bundy #1 on my overall big board last year, so that’s not too much of a surprise.

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by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 13, 2012 4:55 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, no I wasn’t shocked, especially given that Kevin also had Bundy as his #1 player in the draft, but thought it was worth pointing out.

Speaking of which there’s been a good deal of conversation about the paucity of true #1 starters as well as prospects who have the potential to be #1’s, Kevin refers to Shelby Miller for instance as more likely to be a #2 starter. So the fact that the Pirates have 3 guys who have a realistic shot about being aces is certainly something. Of course you never know. Mike Montgomery fell from #21 to off the list, so these projections can shift quickly.

by rj.reynolds on Feb 13, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

#1 pitching prospects

Everyone’s standards for those prospects…I’d kind of think thats a bit of a harsh judgment by him on Miller. And we all know how these things go, as just about everyone is ushering Matt Moore into the AS game already this year. Miller may be more likely to be a #2 than a #1 pitcher, but thats probably true about every pitcher as things are much more likely to not work out as planned. I’m not sure anyone even knows what the difference between a #1 and #2 pitcher is anyway.

by NastyNate82 on Feb 13, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions

agreed

many, MANY #2s are pitching as #1s in the ML; if there are only 5-10 true #1 starters in the MLs…the rest of the teams are using (at least) a #2 as their #1.

per rj.reynolds’ post above:

Kevin Goldstein: I often talk about how few true No. 1 starters there are in baseball. There are also very few prospects who even have a SHOT at being a No. 1. Heredia is one of them.

by insane_sanity on Feb 15, 2012 11:38 AM EST up reply actions