Pirates 2012 ZiPS Projections

Thanks to Dan for the shout-out in the intro. Every starting pitcher except Erik Bedard is predicted to have an ERA+ below 100. Pedro Alvarez is projected to have a .323 OBP and 24 homers, which I'd happily take.

3 months ago Charlie Wilmoth 33 comments 0 recs |

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Fox over Jones

In the OPS+ department stuck out.

by ATribeCalledGreg on Feb 17, 2012 1:31 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I don't understand the defensive chart at all

I can’t find an explanation at BTF anywhere. I can (kind of) guess what the letters mean, but the numbers after the slashes???

Also, I don’t buy the projections for Karstens and Lincoln at all. I wouldn’t predict much better results, but I’ll be shocked if either, let alone both, are as bad as ERA+ of 82 and 79.

OTOH, I’m pleased to see Pedro with a 2/3 chance of ODDIBE of average or better. In those circumstances, I think the team can be not-awful.

by JRoth95 on Feb 17, 2012 2:06 PM EST reply actions

I don’t understand the defensive chart at all

I can’t find an explanation at BTF anywhere.

It’s defensive ratings ported into the format that the Diamond Mind simulator uses, since a lot of people at BTF like to run seasons from the year’s ZiPS projections. The progression goes Excellent → Very Good – > Average → Fair → Poor.

I’m not sure what the numbers mean, since I don’t use Diamond Mind. Maybe the maximum number of games the sim will let the player play at the position in question (based on past usage), or something along those lines?

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:23 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, I got it.

Per this thread, the letter grade is for range, and the number is an error rating. 100 is a league-average error rate, 50 is half the number of errors, 200 is twice the number of errors, etc.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions

Of course

ZIPS comes out the day the Burnett trade happens. Couldn’t he have waited a couple of days so we could have something else to talk about? Journalists.

by Wizard of Woz on Feb 17, 2012 2:14 PM EST reply actions

Nick Evans vs. GFJ

Nick Evans OPS+ 97
GFJ OPS+ 101

with the bats being this similar Evans would almost be a lock to be more productive because of his great glove and better baserunning. He also has upside where Garrett Jones does not

sigh

by Mingy on Feb 17, 2012 2:30 PM EST reply actions

with the bats being this similar Evans would almost be a lock to be more productive because of his great glove and better baserunning.

ZiPS sees both as “Average” first base defenders, and it actually has Jones as a better fielder in RF (“Average”, compared to Evans’s “Fair”). Similarly, it’s got Jones at 8/3 SB/CS and Evans at 2/1, so I don’t really see a big edge there, either.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions

yeah

i actually disagree with a lot of stuff ZiPS has anyway. I’ve never seen anywhere other than here say Evans is “average” at 1B.

It seems really outdated and not that well thought out to me.

Cutch as an average CF? please.

by Mingy on Feb 17, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

Do you think “Average” is too high for Cutch, or too low?

UZR had him at +3.3/150 in CF last year, and -4.0/150 for his career, which would seem to correspond to a rating of average. Per B-R, TZ had him at +6 last year, and -3 for his career as a whole, which is in the same neighborhood as well.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

yes he improved last year

why would he go backwards at this point?

by Mingy on Feb 17, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

yes he improved last year

why would he go backwards at this point?

He’s not “going backwards”. Defensive stats become more reliable with larger samples, so ZiPS is probably using several years’ worth of weighted data in order to give Cutch his rating. Subjectively, he looks like he improved to you, but the metric only sees the numbers, and using a multi-year sample helps it screen out one-year outliers.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

i guess that backs up my point of this seeming outdated to me. Don’t really see Cutch as a candidate to regress defensively, do you?

larger point was NICK EVANS IS DEF NOT AN AVERAGE 1B haha this is the consensus!

by Mingy on Feb 17, 2012 3:36 PM EST up reply actions

i guess that backs up my point of this seeming outdated to me. Don’t really see Cutch as a candidate to regress defensively, do you?

It doesn’t think that he’s regressing. This year’s defensive projection for him is better than last year’s, because he played better in 2011.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:49 PM EST up reply actions

Oliver had a big increase in D for McCutchen

I had him around +5 in the minors, then -3 for the Pirates in both 2009 and 2010. Last year however +15. BIS also reported increase, could have been a positioning problem as BIS told me their records showed McCutchen playing deeper in 2011. Along that line, my records show improvement last year in reducing batter’s XBH, which UZR does not track.

by Brian Cartwright on Feb 17, 2012 7:05 PM EST up reply actions

and also on the SB thing baserunning ability is not solely calculated on SBs!

according to fangraphs GFJ was -4.3 in the BsR column last year while Evans was +1.0

def WAR Evans +1.7 Jones -2.3

Overall WAR Jones .9 in 478 PA
Evans .7 in 194

Evans is the better player with actual upside IMO. 26 years old. Jones going to be 31. No brainer to me

by Mingy on Feb 17, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

bill james

predicts.768 OPS from Evans and .776 OPS from GFJ

by Mingy on Feb 17, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

James projections aren’t really worth much, IMO, because he doesn’t set a realistic league offensive baseline.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:50 PM EST up reply actions

I've always thought, without any type of empircal study on my part,

that James was way too optimistic on offensive numbers while ZIPS seemed to depress them.

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Feb 18, 2012 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

no problem

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 17, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

hahahha

i just guffaw’d at work on that one. YES we can platoon them but i just think Evans should play every day and Jones should get spot starts or something idk. He’s better!

by Mingy on Feb 17, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

Evans is better against LHP, and Jones is better against RHP. As Zane says, a platoon is the obvious answer. Just eyeballing it, there looks to be something like a 20-30 run difference per 500 PA between Jones v. RHP and Evans v. RHP. I respect the defensive/baserunning difference, but it doesn’t make up for the offensive difference with RHP on the mound.

by epoc on Feb 18, 2012 1:34 AM EST up reply actions

That’s actually not a bad-looking offense. No real studs other than Cutch, but no real holes, either.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:14 PM EST reply actions

That was my reaction

You have to go pretty far down the chart to get to the bums.

Hope!

by JRoth95 on Feb 19, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

Even with AJB now

it still has the look of a 70-75 win team

Cole, Taillon, Marte, and Grossman can’t arrive soon enough

by BadAndy on Feb 17, 2012 3:20 PM EST reply actions

Why is Shelby Ford on the list?

by j1066 on Feb 17, 2012 3:26 PM EST reply actions

Probably a legacy from last year’s projections. Or maybe Dan just likes the name?

Ford got released partway through last year, but he hasn’t signed with anyone else yet, and ZiPS always projects players with their most recent organization.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions

Pat Lackey (who, I repeat, is not me)

is rolling on his back and purring at Cutch’s #2 comparable.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 17, 2012 3:27 PM EST reply actions

i'll bet

rod barajas is somewhere enjoying the heck out of his carlton fisk comp

by johnnycuff on Feb 17, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Well, maybe.

That’s Carlton Fisk at age 36… a season in which he hit .231/.289/.468 (102 OPS+). Not bad, but not CARLTON FISK, either.

by Vlad on Feb 17, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions

fisk went on

to hit another 150-ish HRs over the rest of his career. i’m taking the under on that one with barajas…

by johnnycuff on Feb 17, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Well; if Derrick Lee hits 18 homers for the Bucs in '12, I'll buy everyone here a drink

Beauty is in the eye of the beer holder.

by michaelbro8 on Feb 17, 2012 5:55 PM EST reply actions

Looks pretty reasonable.

I expect more from McCutchen and James McDonald, while I would be pleased as shit if Alvarez met his projection.

Everything that guy just said is bullshit . . .thank you

by Scranton on Feb 18, 2012 9:35 AM EST reply actions

This

I think that projection from Pedro is most favorable thing on that chart.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll keep saying it until at least April: if Pedro, Tabata, and Presley all stay healthy and perform as league-average at their positions (not at all an “and a pony” projection), the team gets 5-6 wins better than 2011.

With Bedard and Burnett on hand, I think the pitching should at least equal its 2011 production (remember, all those guys who overperformed when we were winning regressed in August and September, and that’s where the 72-win baseline comes from), and could well be worth another win or two.

Relief pitching should hold steady. 1B should be a bit better overall performance (Overbay canceled out whatever DLee did for us), SS and C are a wash, I expect Walker to hold steady, and Cutch could be good for another win.

All of which is to say, I like our chances at 78 wins, and see 82 as a real possibility. I think that, to drop below 75 wins, Pedro would have to basically play himself off the roster while the injuries exceed even 2011’s revolving door DL.

by JRoth95 on Feb 19, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions