4 months ago
Charlie Wilmoth
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Considering
Scott Boras’ relationship with Mike Rizzo, I don’t think we would have like the financial terms (re: Jason Worth)
Joe Lannan?
The glare of the spotlight is harsh, and the pressure that success breeds immense. We revere our heroes, but expect much. And criticism can come as easily as praise.
Perspectives become reality.
Twitter: @shanecglass
according to MLBTradeRumors John Lannan is being shopped aggressively...
Young, low ERA and a lefty…with Ross Detweiler out of options they want to move Lannan…I hope NH is calling Rizzo…he would be worth taking a look at.
I put up a fanshot linking to that. Reportedly they want a “position player” for him. Someone suggested Gorkys, which seems reasonable for both sides if they really want to be rid of him.
At $5M
I see him as the same thing as KC, though a little younger. WIth another arb season to come, I can’t see the Bucs offering him arb if he continues to pitch the way he as so far. I just don’t see Lannan happening.
by Wizard of Woz on Feb 2, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
Meh
Lannan would provide a little bit more security in the rotation but little else. Jackson would have been a real upgrade so I’m kinda bummed. Maybe Boras was just hellbent on a one year deal, which I’m not sure would have been the best idea for the Pirates. Having said that, I can’t imagine Boras would really think a 1 year deal would get E-Jax better than 4/40 in next year’s stacked pitching class.
by KentuckyPirate on Feb 2, 2012 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
i dont see the problem with a 1 year deal either
the Pirates have the payroll space. Unless they are really expecting to make some kind of major salary move, I don’t see how a 1 year deal would have hurt.
Lannan could benefit from PNC.
Plus don’t we have a bunch of speedy outfielders somewhere? Oh yeah, everywhere.
"You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock. You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance. That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all."
-Earl Weaver
Absolutely not interested in Lannan at that price, I would have easily rather kept Maholm.
If the Nats pay his contract in full I’d take him, otherwise I’m not interested at all.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
But they didn’t keep Maholm and he signed with someone else, so there’s not much of a point in going down that road.
Do you want a starter who has a multiple season track record of pitching at least 180 innings of 4.45 xFIP baseball for $5M (and some sort of asset)? I can certainly see “no” being the answer to that question without the need to bring “I’d rather have Maholm” into the discussion.
Ok...
No.
www.drstrangeglove.com
by nycbucsfan on Feb 2, 2012 2:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Yeah
Remove the phrase referencing Maholm from the post I replied to and I have to qualms with it. Just tired of reading the same hindsight-influenced analysis of that situation, I suppose.
or you could ask
would we want Maholm back for $5m? And everyone would say yes, and they are nearly identical pitchers…
And everyone would say yes, and they are nearly identical pitchers…
No, they aren’t.
Lannan’s last three years, most recent first, by xFIP: 4.24, 4.36, 4.64
Maholm’s last three years, most recent first, by xFIP: 4.03, 4.41, 4.18
At least in the recent past, Maholm has been a significantly better pitcher.
+1
Mr. E is way off the mark on this one, they aren’t even close to the same player.
Should the Pirates keep Neal Huntington?
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2011/5/16/2174135/poll-should-huntington-be-retained
It’s one stat in the sense that Voltron is one robot: Built up out of other, smaller components to make something more than the sum of the parts.
Not infallible, of course, but a good indicator in most cases.
by Vlad on Feb 3, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Lannan has also outperformed his xFIP every year except 2010
I’m not sure we should necessarily rely on it.
you have to be spot on perfect on this blog, eh?
i think “similar” is a fine interpretation. its not like you said “identical”
It's all good.
I shouldn’t give people that hard a time about that kind of thing, but I’m too much of a pedant – I can’t really stop myself.
Looks like he screwed up not taking Arb
He made $8.75 M last year, and the Cards offered. I would think at ERA+ of 106 adn 199 inning would have gotten him a nice little raise. I would guess he would have gotten more than $10M. Boras lost his client money. Crazy.
Nice thought while it lasted
As for Lannan: God no. No no no no no no.
Lannan’s career splits:
vs. L 7.58 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 4.20 FIP
vs. R 3.75 K/9, 3.56 BB/9 4.75 FIP
Lannan is a LOOGY masquerading as a starter. At best he should be a swingman.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Which one is the loogy?
Maholm career 3.11 FIP vs LHB, 4.47 FIP vs RHB
RHB .807 OPS against, LHB .593 OPS
541 IP last 3 years
4.36 career ERA, 3.66 in 2011
Lannan career RHB .752 OPS against, LHB .751 OPS against
534 IP last 3 years
4.00 career ERA, 3.70 in 2011
Lannan also gets more groundballs, has been ADDING velocity through his career (89.8 last year) compared to Maholm continuing to decrease (87.4 2011) and moving to PNC should help drop his HR rate a tick or two.
Which one is the loogy?
Lannan’s the LOOGY;
Lannan vs. RHB, career: 235 K/223 BB in 563 1/3 IP.
Lannan vs LHB, career: 158 K/59 BB in 187 2/3 IP.
Maholm vs. RHB, career: 501 K/321 BB in 921 2/3 IP.
Maholm vs. LHB, career: 204 K/61 BB in 222 IP.
Lannan’s OPS against numbers and raw ERA aren’t reflecting the greatly superior defensive/bullpen support that he’s received during that time. But balls and strikes don’t lie – a guy who can’t get his K/BB against RHP much above 1/1 doesn’t have a long and prosperous future as a SP ahead of him.
[It’s also worth noting that Lannan’s K/BB numbers vs. RHP are actually going backwards, as you’d expect once a guy’s platoon weakness becomes public knowledge. He was at 84/59 back in 2008, but was underwater last year at 51/60. Not good…]
The Nats bullpen was pretty terrible just as recently as the Pirates pen was, though I guess he could have been getting lucky there. Why do you say their D was greatly superior? Other than Ryan Zimmerman, the Nats defenders have been pretty mediocre. Maybe I’ve just blocked out how much Bixler we really had back then.
Perhaps they are both LOOGYs though because Paul’s FIP isn’t going to improve after moving to Wrigley.
Other than Ryan Zimmerman, the Nats defenders have been pretty mediocre. Maybe I’ve just blocked out how much Bixler we really had back then.
They had Nyjer for part of that time, too, and on the bench they’ve generally gone with gloves over bats, which helps as well. And they had the sense to move Dunn to 1B, which minimizes the damage from his glove.
That said, I probably oversold it a bit when I said “greatly superior”. They’re better, but not by as much as I indicated.
wasnt Morgan below average, per UZR, when he was a Nat?
not his monster half season in Washington, but his 2010.
Thank you
You saved me the trouble of digging further in the numbers. Obliged!
Even if I overstated the case, Lannan is a 5th starter at best and we have far too many of those right now, thanks.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
You can work around his limitations to a certain extent with careful management, but it’s a very nerve-wracking way to live.
I’d be reasonably enthusiastic about him as a LOOGY if he weren’t making quite so much money, and if Huntington hadn’t come out and said that we aren’t going to carry any purely situational relievers.
Everyone is saying we need innings eaters. Lannan can do that far better than Correia, Mcdonald, Locke and probably Karstens/Lincoln as well.
And, sure, maybe he’s the luckiest man alive, but 4.00 career ERA is way better than “5th starter at best.”
Lot more right handed bats than lefties out there
That said, if Charlie is ever going to progress beyond a #3 starter, he needs to figure out lefties to some degree.
Best season of his career last year and he had 6.75 BB/9 against lefties. That’s not going to cut it, long term.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
He looked a little bit like that last year, yeah, but I think he might be able to grow out of it.
The most classic ROOGY we’ve had on hand in the not-so-distant past is probably Scott Strickland in 2006. At the time, I couldn’t figure out why we didn’t give him a call-up from Indy, though in retrospect it seems pretty obvious.
At least this is final confirming proof...
…if such was still needed (which it wasn’t) that the Bucs are done for the off-season so at least we can start speculating about the 25 man roster with certainty now.
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
Hahah, nice catch
Speculating with certainty as to our choice of options
The devil is in the words one forgets to type!
Jose Tabata is the truth
The following is a list of everything Darren McFadden is bad at: 1) Giving birth. End of list.
I gues he didn't know who this Other team was that kept calling him
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/02/02/to-espn-the-pirates-and-astros-are-other/
Players who should be in the Hall of Fame: Pat TIllman, Dwight White, Donnie Shell, L.C. Greenwood, Ray Guy, Steve Tasker, Jack Butler, Greg Lloyd, Andy Russell, Cris Carter, Kevin Greene, Curtis Martin, Willie Roaf, Andre Reed and Jerry Kramer
"Clemson should've stopped turning the ball over" Dana Holgorsen when asked about running up the score in the Orange Bowl
by WVPiratesfan on Feb 2, 2012 3:50 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
nationals have a decent shot of competing this year
there was NO way the pirates were getting Jackson
Any concern
that there could be some bitterness from guys like Hammer and J-Mac if it comes out (or becomes apparent within the organization) that the Pirates didn’t really make a run at E-Jax?
At somewhere between $8M and $12M for one year (depending on the choice of reports), it doesn’t appear that Jackson was ever in (or even in the same county as) Neal Huntington’s “internal value” neighborhood.
by Thunder on Feb 2, 2012 5:40 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
confused why people are against Lannan
While Jackson had a better K/BB rate than Lannan, Lannan had a better ERA and WHIP was almost the same. I understand the Nats are really trying to put names out there and build a strong fan base(I went to lots of games last year and it was pathetic) However I don’t think Jackson was all that much of an upgrade and I still would be scared that he goes slightly mental and puts up a 5.50 era. I think the comparisons to Maholm are pretty spot on and if you give Lannan a good defensive SS(hey we have that) and possibly the best defensive outfield in the league(hey we have that too) I think he could put up good numbers. If it would only cost us Gorkys who really isn’t going to fit in here for long anyway, I don’t see any reason why we shouldn’t do it. It seems like an upgrade to Kevin C and he is young enough that it would be a pretty decent low risk medium reward. As long as he has a decent year, if he doesn’t fit into the long term plans, you should be able to trade him for something better than Gorkys later in the season.
confused why people are against Lannan
He’s a depth-type guy, not someone who belongs in a rotation, due to his issues with RHB. I could see bringing in a guy like him if the cost were minimal, but the Nats are going to want something back in trade for him.
Maholm was a significantly better pitcher. If you gave Lannan the kind of defensive support that Maholm received, you’d have a massacre on your hands.
why werent good defensive teams lined up to sign Maholm this offseason?
Perhaps the best defensive teams already liked their internal options enough that they didn’t need to buy a FA SP? Or maybe they’re concerned about the prospect of the luxury tax, and it’s deforming the market for mid-level starters?
Under the new CBA, the tax % escalates for every consecutive year that you’re over. So going a couple mill above the line this year might not be that big a deal for 2012, but it could really hammer you in 2013 or 2014 if you plan to make any significant acquisitions then.
Speculation is that the luxury tax is why the Red Sox traded away both Lowrie and Scutaro – they’re going to try and get under the line for 2013 to re-set their timer, then spend big in the next two seasons. Is it true? Hard to say…
i still think that Maholm is viewed as being one of the pirates better pitchers
and thats not a compliment
SAY IT!!!
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by cocktailsfor2 on Feb 4, 2012 8:22 AM EST up reply actions
Nice to see a downtrodden franchise go out and try to win
Unlike the current one in Pittsburgh.
Maybe NH can trade Cutch to the Nationals to help out their CF hole.
Thankfully DC is a crap sports town
and no cares about the Nats (yet). If the Skins were building their franchise the way the Nats are, I’d have to barricade myself in my office from all the whooping and hollering. It will be a long summer watching a young franchise on the come while we debate the merits of Jo-Jo Reyes.
by GPT on Feb 3, 2012 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
Update on the Deal
MLB Trade Rumors, quoting the Washington Post, says that Jackson will earn $11MM plus incentives this year.
Welcome to the new dark ages.....
isn't that also $11M?
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 3, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
Nope
Sorry if I appear to be picking nits. But I would rather have $11MM in my pocket (and even more if I did well this year) than $9MM this year and $2MM at some later date. More cash is better than less and fast cash is better than slow cash.
It depends how the deferred money is set up.
For example, when Bobby Bonilla signed with the Mets in 1992, he deferred $5.9M of his contract. In leiu of paying Bonilla a $5.9M lump-sum, the Mets bought him an annuity. Which pays him $1.19M a year. Every year. Up until 2035.
The total payments from that annuity, when it’s all said and done in the next 23 years, will be over $30M. That’s a pretty good retirement plan, in anybody’s book.
by Midnight Moose on Feb 3, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
lucky for bobby bo it was not from bernie madoff
by karreemofwheat on Feb 3, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
the way I heard it
Madoff convinced the Wilpons that they could expect a big return on their investment for a long time, so giving Bobby a lengthy annuity was more economical than giving him the money upfront, because by the time they started paying out the lump sum they saved would have grown so much that it’d cover it.
How such enormous suckers got to be rich in the first place, I don’t know.
lambert — thanks. In this case I’m not sure that it’d make that much difference to the Pirates, who I’m guessing are less cash-constrained this year than they will be in future years. Anyway, I don’t think there’s anything the Pirates could’ve done here short of giving him 5/85; it doesn’t sound like he’d have taken 4/40, I don’t think I’d have wanted them to offer more than $11M unless some of it was deferred, and even then I think they’d have had to beat the Nats by a big margin to land him.
Not actually affiliated with whygavs.
by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 3, 2012 7:09 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry I'm a little late on the response WHYGZS
Agree, the Pirates probably would have had to overpay anyway.
first post
what do you guys think about the pirates taking a flyer on someone like a rich harden? the pirates like the low risk high reward type signings and he may be available at a good price. if he regains his former form that would help with the uncertainty of this rotation.
by dhoff024 on Feb 5, 2012 12:36 AM EST via mobile reply actions
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