Baseball America: 2012 Top 100 Prospects
Four Pirates made the cut: Gerrit Cole (12), Jameson Taillon (15), Josh Bell (60), and Starling Marte (73).
Update: Jim Callis was asked during a chat today about players who just missed the cut for the top 100, and Luis Heredia was one of the ten players he named in his response.
3 months ago
Vlad
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Slightly surprised
not to see Grossman, but I’ll take it. I expect/hope the number to go up next year as well.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 2:07 PM EST reply actions
Shouldn't be surprising
I know they don’t always line up exactly, but based on their Pirates top 10, Grossman probably wasn’t even particularly close. They had him 8th (behind Heredia, McPherson, and Sanchez).
Derp
oh ya. For some reason I thought they had him higher. 4 makes sense.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 2:33 PM EST up reply actions
boo
no Grossman OR Heredia. It is rather nice to see two pitching prospects in the top 15 howevahhhhh
How do you have Marte at 73 and Grossman doesn’t even crack the top 100. That is dumb.
Uh?
You Marte is better than Grossman and then Marte is at least 28 spots higher than Grossman?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
should’ve clarified a bit -
not that i think Grossman is a better prospect but every top 100 list i’ve seen he’s ten spots or so behind Marte.
Don’t see how he’s not a better prospect than someone like maybe Zack Cox who is only 4 months younger and yeah played a little AA last year but only OPSd .787 there and didnt bat as well as Grossman did in A+ ball
majority of top 100 lists feature Grossman, right?
Naw
He’s fringe from what I’ve seen. Back and forth
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
BA basically doesn’t care about numbers. They’re a tools publication. Asking them about a player like Grossman is like asking a guy who’s into drifting what kind of fuel economy his car gets.
That's good
That’s really good. What kinda fuel economy does your car get Vlad?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
What kinda fuel economy does your car get Vlad?
’02 Protege. Right around 20 MPG daily driving, give or take, maybe down a hair from factory specs.
It’s burning oil, though, and has been for a while. There’s something wrong with the engine (valve seals, I think) that I can’t fix myself and can’t afford to pay someone else to take care of.
C’est la vie.
So not as much
drifting as you’d like to?
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
i can imagine
Vlad Tokyo drifting sideways up on his 02 Protege with those green flames coming out the exhaust etc
Finally
This is a good start to rebuilding an organization. Too bad we ran in place for 15 years.
Interesting
They rank Josh Bell(60), higher than Sterling Marte(73). For a player that hasn’t even hit yet in the minors I don’t think.
Also love the Josh Bell Tag line ‘….Still waiting for the addendum to his mom’s letter to major league clubs that says, " . . . unless you offer us $5 million."’
Also, interesting to see that the ETA’s are mostly 2013-2014 for the prospects on the list.
I was thinking Maybe Marte may come up near the end of 2012 as either a September callup or August 2012 due to failings or trades (Pressley, Jones, McClouth) in the outfield.
I would move Cole up two spots to #10...
…as there is no reason that proven Japanese professional Yu Darvish should be on that list, and former Yankee uber-rated prospect Jesus Montero will show the world that he is a DH waiting to happen, thus reducing his actual value.
It's just my two cents. Could be worth more, could be worth nothing.
So still 5 in the top
110. Using some basic math, there should be 100/30 prospects in the top 100 per team. Whipping out my calculator (joke) that’s 3.33 prospects per team in the top 100. We have 4.
110/30 is 3.66 and we have 5. Could do better, but I ain’t complaining.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 5:55 PM EST reply actions
Not complaining either but...
We need more than +.77 players above the MLB average in the top 100 because those are going to be our best players at the MLB level where organizations like Yankees, Phillies etc…will have proven, expensive talent that we don’t have in addition to the 3.33 avg top 100 prospects.
I know this is a huge improvement from where we were but we need to continue to produce players from outside our 1st round pick (Bell is included in that because he was 1st round talent and we won’t be able to pull another maneuver like that with new CBA). I’m happy we are on the up swing but we need to beat the MLB average by a more significant amount in order to be successful in the future IMO.
by nagihcimwolves50 on Feb 21, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW
And based strictly on BA’s ranking of the prospects and their estimation of the likelihood of the prospect’s arrival in the majors in 2012:
The Rangers appear to have the strongest farm with six prospects on the list, two of whom are expected to arrive in the majors in 2012 (6/2). Cards follow, also with 6 prospects, none of whom are expected in 2012 (6/0) Got it? Here we go.
Top ten farms: Rangers 6/2; Cards 6/0; A’s 5/3; Royals 5/1; Padres 5/1; Braves 4/3; Mariners 4/3; D’Backs 4/2; Cubs 4/2; Rays sneak in with 4/1 but that 1 is the Number two prospect on BA’s list. Note: The Royals’, and even moreso The Cubs’ and Padres’ prospects, tend to be middle-rankers.
Second ten: Yankees 4/1; Rockies 4/1; Pirates 4/0; Jays 4/0; Reds 3/2; Dodgers 3/1; O’s 3/0; Astros 3/0; Angels 2/2; Nats 2/1. Note: The Angels have the Number three and the Nats the Number one prospects on BA’s list.
The rest: Twins 2/1 (sadly, Mr. Sano is one of their two); Tigers 2/1; Brewers 2/1; Red Sox 2/0; Mets 1/1; White Sox 1/1; Indians 1/0; Giants 1/0; Marlins 1/0; Phils 1/0. Hooray! Nobody got left out. Other than number of prospects and the number of each team’s prospects expected to arrive in 2012, teams appear in order of the ranking of their highest-ranked prospect.
Did we learn anything? It’s a little disappointing to see the Bucs still in the middle of the pack after all the money they’ve spent on the draft since 2008. Haven’t checked the draft spending for this post so I may be off base (that’s a little joke), but I wonder how the Bucs’ spending compares to that of the top ten farms over the past four years. Is there something in The Pirates’ scouting, draft strategy or development program that explains the Pirates ranking? Trevor Bauer and Dylan Bundy, both drafted behind G. Cole, are ranked above him. Danny Hultzen (who I still like), also drafted behind him, is projected to arrive in 2012 I’m not claiming this is the best or only way to look at BA’s rankings. It’s just what occurred to me at first glance. On the other hand, The Nats have spent a pile of money (I think) look where they are. Also a little surprised to see The Rays where they are. Would have thought they’d have been higher on the list.
Obviously, Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes are wild cards. Nonetheless, they’re prospects. Wonder if Billy Beane knows something we don’t.
Have at it.
Lino Donoso
But Marte's coming this year
Barring injury or serious setback. That doesn’t make a big difference (it doesn’t turn 4 into 5), but it arguably bumps us up a notch.
Just a quibble. In general I’m not concerned about this, since it seems that just a slightly different weighting/judgement would give us 6 guys in the Top 100, and 4 of them scheduled to arrive this year or next. I’d say that’s an adequate bump in talent, no?
Huh?
I expect Marte to play a full year at AAA and maybe get a September call-up but that’s it. He should be part of our farm system again next year.
by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 21, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
You know what?
I don’t know what I was thinking.
Actually, I think that I’ve been talking about all the 2013 arrivals in other threads, and then somehow pushed Marte up to this year.
So, uh,
I'm not at all sure Marte's coming to Pitt this year
Barring injury or performance drops, which I hope not, there won’t be space in Pittsburgh. And this doesnt account for the fact that Marte might take some time to adjust to AAA.
by BurgherKing on Feb 22, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
depends on how you mean forcing their hand
i m thinking an 850 OPS with 10 HR in half a season doesnt get him in pitt… yes, i like presley more than the BD consensus :)
by BurgherKing on Feb 22, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
That's almost exactly what Presley put up and he only had to push out Overbay
87G 8HR .874 OPS for Alex. It’s going to take a lot from Marte or very little from one of our other OFs.
yeah
i think all 3 of our OFs are capable of posting 800-ish OPSes, and as long as they are above .775, I don’t think Marte cracks the lineup, pretty much regardless of what he is doing (I mean, if he puts up a 1.000 OPS that’s different). Although if all 3 were hitting like that and Marte was hitting well, I could see one of the OFs becoming trade bait…
Great post, like it a lot
And just going by your numbers, the Bucs could very conceivably shoot up the rankings next year, particularly if some of that hitting (Bell, Dickerson) starts to pick up. I don’t mind that Cole is ranked behind the other two…everyone here knows that he was the one guy who some people questioned, and its not that those questions are invalid.
It seems to me that a big thing holding the Bucs back in these rankings was Sanchez’s drop from the previous year. I don’t have their rankings handy (wasn’t he in the top 50 last year?), but his drop out of the top 100 basically torpedoed their ranking. Not that the ranking in and of itself matters. But, its likely that the Bucs graduate no one of significance (I don’t expect Marte to get more than a cup of coffee this year) while some other teams ahead of them graduate some key pieces. All this being said…I’d likely think with normal years from the studs, and maybe a bounce-back here or there, they’d be top 5. Which of course…means not a whole lot.
by NastyNate82 on Feb 21, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent point
One guy’s performance or alternatively, the baseball world’s evaluation of same, can affect the rankings a lot. Also, these things take time. And, you can have all the tools in the world and still never figure out how to play the game. Or, the competition may just be better, or luckier. Lots of moving parts. I just want to see a level playing field (That’s meant for Bud and his friends).
Lino Donoso
Look for our team to fill the top 100 next year.
This is a strong year for people to be called up. An estimated 40 of the top 100 are either going to be called up or on the cusp of getting called up. If even half of them do, that will open up 20 more slots for the next year. The only person we could graduate this year is probably Marte. If he he is still a prospect next year, you have those four guys along with a slew of guys who could easily jump onto the list. Between Kingham, Von Rosenberg, Cain, McPherson, Allie, and Heredia… there are enough tools there that if someone puts together a good season they will turn heads and magically jump into the top 100. Also if Grossman, Sanchez or Dickerson crush the ball, they all should have the possibility to jump in. If we swing for the fences and get someone with our 8th pick that could put another guy in. Sure anything from guys getting hurt, not playing to their ability or even trades could happen, but it isn’t unheard of to think we might actually have the top farm system in the league in 2013. Add that to a team that could sniff .500 if some of the young guys put it together and Burnett and Bedard stay healthy and are successful moving to the NL central. It still isn’t the playoffs, but it would give me something to be excited about
Tim has a summary of the Bucs’ standing in the various top 100s here. It’s interesting to see the results in one place because it pretty clearly shows the different emphases. BA, where the Pirates’ showing was weakest, is more tools-oriented, while Law and BP are more skills-oriented. Grossman is the bellweather for that, I guess.
Actually, my sense—not necessarily from these lists, but from years of reading these sources—is that BA prefers raw tools with hitters but focuses more on command and current effectiveness with pitchers (hence my view that BA routinely overrates college pitchers, especially lefties). Law and BP seem to value stuff and projectability more with pitchers.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
Actually, my sense—not necessarily from these lists, but from years of reading these sources—is that BA prefers raw tools with hitters but focuses more on command and current effectiveness with pitchers (hence my view that BA routinely overrates college pitchers, especially lefties). Law and BP seem to value stuff and projectability more with pitchers.
I think this is generally true.
Vlad/WTM
Would you use this view of BA to justify Dylan Bundy and Trevor Bauer both being rated higher than Gerritt Cole? Or do you think they are both just better prospects at this point? I just find it a little funny/concerning that Bundy and Bauer are both rated higher than Cole at this point, not to mention a lot higher than Danny Hultzen considering both were selected earlier in the draft.
Obviously we are dealing with the first 4 players taken so maybe the talent gaps were small to begin with. I’m no expert…but I am a Pirates fan and missing the boat is something I’m painfully used to seeing in the draft…just makes me nervous. I was just hoping I could get some clarification/opinions from the experts on this.
Like I said, BA has always struck me as putting a lot of stock in current performance with pitchers, which is odd given their obsession with hitters like Anthony Gose. They seem to have been bothered more by Cole’s disappointing results in his jr. year, certainly more than Law. I also think Bauer is getting some reflected Lincecum Glory.
I don’t think the exact standings mean much.
Occupy MLB! Down with Seligula!
Would you use this view of BA to justify Dylan Bundy and Trevor Bauer both being rated higher than Gerritt Cole?
I think they’re all three really good prospects, and you could justifiably have them in any order. I also think that tiny gaps in rankings aren’t particularly meaningful – the gap between Bauer and Cole on BA’s list is only three slots, and one of those slots is Bundy. Now, if we were talking about the difference between Bauer and, say, Randall Delgado, a gap of that size might actually mean something.
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