Pedro Alvarez first in at-bats, Josh Harrison second in fWAR

I was probably mixing him up with Tyler Skaggs. Some guys just sound like good prospects, don’t you know?

The Rays, drafting #1, haven’t had a single player made the majors; and though 3 of their top 5 picks were from high school, I don’t think any of them are top prospects unless you count Tim Beckham. I think they’d trade their 2008 draft for ours in a heartbeat, if only to get Robbie Grossman.

I haven’t given up on Beckham, but yeah, that’s pretty grim.

The Orioles, drafting #4, had Matusz make the majors (BBRef actually likes him a little) and Kyle Hudson (meh). LJ Hoes and Bobby Bundy are still decent prospects, I guess. Wouldn’t really trade our draft for theirs, but then they’re the Orioles.

The big name you missed there is Oliver Drake, who would’ve gone a lot higher than the 43rd round if he hadn’t been coming from the Naval Academy (and thus possibly tied up in a mandatory service requirement). Greg Miclat’s a decent MIF prospect: .371 OBP and a 50/3 SB/CS last year, mostly as a 23-year-old in AA. He was the final cut from my R5 preview. Xavier Avery hasn’t hit much, but he was known to be raw at the time of the draft, and scouts still like his tools. Ronnie Welty has decent tools and a little more performance than Avery. And I have a soft spot for Jason Gurka, who misses a lot of bats for a guy who doesn’t have much stuff (and who made Bryce Harper look stupid in one game last year).

The Giants, drafting #5, have had four players in the majors, though the non-Posey ones haven’t played much there or produced much — and they were all college guys. Eric Surkamp is still a prospect I guess, Crawford and Gillaspie could produce though I wouldn’t lay money that they’ll outproduce Mercer and d’Arnaud.

The Giants’ 2008 draft class also includes two other notable college arms: Scott Barnes, who got traded to the Indians, and Ryan Verdugo, who got dealt to the Royals.

The Marlins, drafting #6, went high-school heavy and have had one player hit the majors (second-rounder Brad Hand). I kind of don’t recognize any of the rest of the names, including first-rounder Kyle Skipworth.

Skipworth’s a catcher. Good raw power, but problems with the strike zone prevent him from making much use of it. In addition to Hand, the Marlins had Elih Villanueva make the majors – he’s a low-ceiling back-of-the-rotation SP type. Other than that, at this point their 2008 draft class is mostly RPs: Pete Andrelczyk, Dan Jennings, and Wade Korpi. Isaac Galloway has enough tools that he might make it as an OF if he learns the strike zone, which he probably won’t.

But this emphasizes how important it is to hit on your #1 pick.

Yes, exactly.

Odorizzi was part of the package for Greinke, so if you’re counting that way that’s how you count it. But that complicates things too much — part of the reason that the Pirates didn’t flip Pedro for Cliff Lee was that it would have been a completely insane thing to do given where the franchise was. But that shouldn’t affect our valuation of Justin Smoak — at least, the Pirates wouldn’t have got the value out of him that the Rangers did.

Would it have been a good idea for the Pirates to have traded Pedro Alvarez and three minor leaguers for Cliff Lee in 2010? Why or why not?