Hopes for pitching

by terrbeargray on Feb 6, 2012 12:25 PM EST

This is my first fan post. I seldom comment, but I have been reading almost all the comments daily for some time now.

Ever year around this time I look for something in the upcoming season to really root for. A bench mark of sorts that if it happens then things could be going pretty well for the Pirates. For instance, in 2010 I told my friends that if Clement sticks at 1st then we could start to expect some good things. Imagine if Clement had become an Ike Davis. Last year it was Pedro breaking out. Could still happen. This year I started considering my hopes for the season while exploring Pirates Prospects articles on the 2013, 14', and 15' payrolls. Really good reading.

I like most dream of the Pirates developing a minor league system that is continuously providing talent to the major league club. All this recent talk about the state of the system and what it should be expected to produce has led me to this years hopes. If form all the starting pitchers that the Pirates draft each year the system was able to push one into the majors yearly a rotation of bringing a guy with 6yrs of control and trading a guy with 2yrs could run endlessly.

Erik Bedard, one year of control. Correia, one year of control. Karstens, two years of control. Morton, three years. McDonald, four years. Lincoln, five years. If Rudy Owens pushes his way onto the major league squad early, the guys at top end of the rotation become the depth that we all have been begging for. Imagine Bedard being trade bate before he breaks down. Correia pushed into a bull pen that is suddenly much deeper then it already is. A rotation of Karstens, Morton, McDonald, Lincoln, and Owens. Karstens and Correia become trade bate at the deadline when Locke is brought up.

The success of Owens and Locke is my wish for the upcoming season. They could be the last chance for the Pirates to add LH starting pitchers from within for a while. Let the infusion begin, Karstens, Morton, McDonald, Lincoln, Owens clock starts in 12', Locke in 13', Cole in 14', Taillon in 15', Holmes, Heredia. I know I'm projecting pretty far out, but that was the beauty of the PP articles. It shows us the road map for future Pirates teams and the potential of filling holes internally.

I'm interested in your feed back and what you may think are some keys to the upcoming season in respect to the long term outlook of the club. Thanks.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Comments

Welcome Terr!

From your mouth to God’s ears. Having enough starters in the pipeline to go from a guy with 6 years’ service to a guy with 2 years’ service is the dream, but we’d have to be lucky to do that; there’ll be some attrition in those pitching prospects.

I’d also guess that Locke comes up before Owens, though I really hope for Owens to put it back together.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 6, 2012 2:36 PM EST reply actions

If Morton is healthy

enough to start the season the first time a fifth starter is needed, and Owens is strong enough in the spring to get in the mix with Lincoln and Correia, I wouldn’t hesitate to move Correia to the pen to start the year and roll with Lincoln and Owens long term upside.

by terrbeargray on Feb 6, 2012 3:01 PM EST reply actions

I like your thinking

I’m also going to judge 2012 based on the progress in the entire system. I realize that’s a DUH! moment, but the Bucs obviously have much more depth in the system so our chances of seeing some serious breakouts at all levels has to be better than 2011, 2010, 2009…

Thanks for the refreshing new thought (at least for me). It seems like there have been too many SALE THE HUNTINGTON posts lately which I’m hoping go away when ST starts.

by lambert58 on Feb 6, 2012 3:39 PM EST reply actions

especially with the Jackson proposal that just came to light...

by white angus on Feb 6, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

don't count on that anytime soon

It seems like there have been too many SALE THE HUNTINGTON posts lately which I’m hoping go away when ST starts

by BadAndy on Feb 7, 2012 10:16 AM EST up reply actions

I think that it is reasonable

to expect your top prospects to advance through the minors at a predictable rate. Therefore I think it’s ok for a team to draft by position or trade for prospects with an eye toward filling holes at the major league level, at least with top prospects. I look for these patterns when I study the Pirates future payroll at PP. For instance Tabatas’ contract runs through 2019, Presley is controlled through 17’, McCutchen 15’, and if Marte is brought up at a date that starts his clock in 2013 he would be under control until 2018. If Grossman spends 2012 at AA, 13’ at AAA, and is brought up after the point in 14’ that his clock doesn’t start until 15’ then the Pirates have control of him through 2020. That’s putting yourself in a position to be able to replace an outfielder yearly as players salaries jump through arbitration. Bell, clock starts in 2016, under team control until 2021.

by terrbeargray on Feb 6, 2012 4:48 PM EST reply actions

As you imply, pitching is the key.....

…..especially the starting rotation.

Most Pirate fans can see an infusion of capable starting pitchers somewhere down the road. At least, we all hope so.

For 2012, questions marks abound:

- Will Bedard stay healthy? (If he does, he’ll help for one season.)

- Will Morton recover fully from his hip surgery? (…..and learn how to get lefties out?)

- Will Correia be any more than a replacement level starter? (Seems unlikely.)

- Will Karstens prove to be the starter he was for much of 2011? (…..or will he regress?)

- Will McDonald find some consistency? (…..or will the early hooks continue?)

Seems appropriate to wish for something out of Lincoln, Locke, and Owens, because the five above do not inspire a great deal of confidence in terms of their sustainable effectiveness. It would be great if Cole powers his way through the system and is ready to debut before the 2012 season ends (as a few prognosticators are suggesting). It would be nice if Wilson and/or Morris move back to starting….. and pitch effectively. It would be wonderful if McPherson continues to show progress.

Heck, it would be cool if one of the long-shots came through as a starter (guys like Daniel Cabrera, Jo-Jo Reyes, Chris Leroux, Shairon Martis).

All things considered, the performance of the Pirates’ starting rotation in 2012 could range from good (perhaps approaching the first half of 2011) to awful. As the rotation goes, so will go the Pirates.

by magnumo on Feb 6, 2012 6:31 PM EST reply actions

I think Pedro and Sanchez are the keys to the franchise for 2012. We don’t really have long-term backup plans at either of these crucial positions. If they don’t turn things around it could very likely lead to a new GM as well.

by Mr. E on Feb 6, 2012 7:18 PM EST reply actions

Agree

I don’t think the key is pitching this year. I think we have mostly replaceable parts there. Lincoln and Owens for example. Alvarez is the difference between having a decent year and a championship year. As is the health of Jose Tabata. He has to stay healthy this year.

by SojourningPirate on Feb 6, 2012 7:54 PM EST up reply actions

Looking at the

infield in the same light as the rotation and outfield I see that Alvarez and Walker are both under team control through 2016. Jones 2015, McGehee 14’, Barmis 13’, d’Arnaud 17’, Barajas 13’, McKenry 16’.
If Sanchez starts at AAA in 2012 and his clock starts in 13’ then he will be under control until 2018. d’Arnaud somehow makes the big league squad and he is under control through 2017. Alvarez probably will become a free agent no matter what happens between now and 2016. I see Walker as the most likely to get a extension, lets say the home town discount gets you Walkers first three years of FA, 2019. Jones should not become a free agent as a Pirate, but his number is 2015.
The bench would be McLouth (2012) as the 4th OF, Barmis (2013) as the back up MI. McGehee (2014) as the Backup to Pedro. Evans (2016) as Jones platoon partner. McKenry (2016) backing up Barajas.
d’Arnaud beating out Barmis would probably be my other hope for the upcoming season. There was some rumblings about the Bucs wanting another MI for off the bench, but Barmis being pushed to the bench by d’Arnaud or Mercer would be as good as Owens and Locke finding success. Ultimately I see Mercer at SS and d’Arnaud as the MI.

by terrbeargray on Feb 6, 2012 8:53 PM EST reply actions