Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects

by rj.reynolds on Feb 9, 2012 8:46 PM EST

The bulk of information is behind a pay wall but the highlights, including the Pirates 10, Pittsburgh's prospects who made the Top 100, and the Pirates prospect who just missed the Top 100 are summarized nicely over at Pirates Prospects.

I thought I'd throw up a FanPost over here for additional discussion. There are certainly a few surprised on the list relative the general perceptions of Keith's feeling about the Pirates system.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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Marte & Grossman

There was a lot of speculation that Marte might not even end up on Law’s list. Not only is he on the list but he’s ahead of Grossman, who Law has been more vocally positive about than just about any of the other prospect analysts.

by rj.reynolds on Feb 9, 2012 9:02 PM EST reply actions

and wasn't Heredia on the mid-season top 50?

now he’s 110? and Zack Dodson at no.10? At least Law is creative

by Mr. E on Feb 10, 2012 3:19 AM EST up reply actions

Both points highlight

an oddity in Law’s list. Heredia was at #46 and now he’s at #110. That’s still good, and that means we have 6 guys in the top 110. Considering basic math dictates that the average team should have 3.66 prospects in the top 110 (and ~.50 prospects in the top 16 – we have two), I’ll certainly take it.

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Buried Treasure - #7 Prospect Tony Sanchez
Buried Treasure - Jeff Karstens's June and July

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 10, 2012 3:45 AM EST up reply actions

It also means

Law doesn’t really know what he’s doing, if, maybe 6 starts, drops a guy 60 spots. Something weird is going on either way

by Mr. E on Feb 10, 2012 5:48 AM EST up reply actions

I don't think thats why he fell

There isn’t much information on Heredia because of those 6 starts…but all of the guys behind him probably played a lot more so he could get more data. So if say, all of the guys from 70-80 played roughly a full season or in the AFL and played really well, its not shocking that they’d pass Heredia, who played about 10 minutes this season.

by NastyNate82 on Feb 10, 2012 6:53 AM EST up reply actions

isn't it also partly 2011 draftees?

I think KLaw’s midseason top 50 was before the signing deadline, so e.g. Cole and Bell weren’t on it.

Not actually affiliated with whygavs.

by WHYG Zane Smith on Feb 10, 2012 7:40 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

This is definitetly true

no 2011 draftees were on it. Although, there were also prospects that graduated post midseason top 50 list, such at Brett Lawrie.

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Buried Treasure - #7 Prospect Tony Sanchez
Buried Treasure - Jeff Karstens's June and July

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Feb 10, 2012 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Law said (I think in his chat) that his opinion on Heredia has not changed since the mid-season list.

Pirates Prospects

by MBandi on Feb 10, 2012 8:04 AM EST up reply actions

He actually said

“no change,” which could mean either that his opinion hasn’t changed or that he dropped Heredia slightly because he doesn’t see a quality changeup from him yet. I wish he’d elaborated on that one.

by epoc on Feb 10, 2012 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

got to be the latter I would think. His ranking would make sense then, along with 15-20 draftees passing him

by Mr. E on Feb 10, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions

I like Keith Law, I know there’s a fair number of folks who don’t. I think he brings some intelligence and erudition to ESPN but if he rubs you the wrong way I won’t argue that point.

I do think that he’s methodical and intellectually consistent, even if you disagree with his conclusions.

It’s definitely fair to question Heredia’s absence from the Top 100 based on the second half rankings.

When did he publish those? Obviously the 2011 would have pushed Heredia down the list as well some guys who made strides in the AFL (such as Grossman) and perhaps some folks who came on strong in the second depending on when the previous list was published.

Still that’s a size able drop. I’d be curious to hear his thinking on that. I don’t have Insider but from the summary of his Heredia capsule it sounds like he thinks he’s super raw and a long way from the Majors.

by rj.reynolds on Feb 10, 2012 1:25 PM EST via mobile reply actions

That was my biggest question

when I saw that Heredia didn’t make the cut. He was #50 in the mid-season rankings. Without going back to see everybody who “jumped” over Heredia since then, I have a hard time understanding how he could fall so far since July 14th.

by KentuckyPirate on Feb 10, 2012 3:15 PM EST up reply actions

My guess

is that in addition to the 2011 draftees leapfrogging Heredia, as well as guys who may have shot above him with more data and improvements (i.e. Grossman), is maybe Law reconsidered his initial opinion on Heredia. More specifically, maybe his initial ranking was a little too aggressive. After all, with as much upside as Heredia has, he’s still 16 friggin years old. He didn’t say thats why (I’m puzzled by the no change comment discussed above…meaning no changeup?) Heredia moved down, but I think it may be possibility.

by NastyNate82 on Feb 10, 2012 8:12 PM EST up reply actions