Here is a link to a post about the future of Pedro Alvarez that I wrote last year. More importantly, you can follow the links to two more interesting pieces, from Lincoln Hamilton at Project Prospect and Jeff Sackmann from The Hardball Times, both of which argue that K% is by far the most important predictive measure of future success for a college hitter.
I admit that I was in favor of drafting Alvarez at the time, but after reading these articles I have to say that his dismal performance so far should not have been a surprise to any of us, including the Pirates' organization
I think Pedro needs a full year at Indianapolis, but I can see both sides. We're in a real bind with this guy, almost a no win situation at this point.
By the way, since his piece was written a while back, I contacted Hamilton about his conclusions, and he stands by them, adding only that the percentages may change due to the BBCOR bats.