FanShot

ESPN Stats & Info Takes A Look At Pirates Pitching Numbers

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We talked a lot last year about how the peripherals suggested the Pirates pitchers were very unlikely to perform as well as it had through the first half of the season if they continued on the same path. Unfortunately, that proved to be true. From the get-go this year, things have been different. The peripherals have backed up the excellent results. These numbers suggest that some of the starters could actually do even better if they continue to pitch to their peripherals. This looks much more sustainable. Good news for Pirates fans. (via DejanMustard) UPDATE by Charlie: I'm sorry to be Debbie Downer again, but I don't understand why the author, after sensibly looking at FIP (although xFIP, which is more favorable to Kevin Correia and much less favorable to James McDonald than FIP is, is a more comprehensive stat) to see whether Pirates' starters' ERAs are sustainable, didn't take the next logical step and look at FIPs (or xFIPs) for Pirates relievers. Almost to a man, the Pirates' pen is due for a huge, honking regression. The author could even have just looked at the Pirates' team stats this year as a whole: 3.32 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 3.91 xFIP. That's a huge difference, and for some reason he just missed it. In fact, if we're going to use FIP/xFIP as the measure of the likelihood that a staff will regress, only one other team in baseball (the A's) has an xFIP-ERA that's bigger than the Pirates'. This year's staff is, I think, more legitimately talented than last year's, but the conclusion the author reaches here is way too rosy.

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