In a piece written yesterday by the grandmaster of baseball scouting Bob Smizik claims that Cole an Taillon are busts because they, brace for it, getting worn down by not being used to throwing as they are now. You may ask why I read a Smizik article, I was bored and hadn't ventured to Smizikstan for a while.So without further adeu, lets break this down.
Pirates right-handed pitching prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are consistently ranked among the very best in professional baseball. But they certainly are not pitching like it.I guess this is true if you assume that all 1st round picks tear up the minors, like Steven Strasburg, but once you compared them to other first round picks it seems a little less like they are busts and more like young pitchers learning to pitch. Comparing Jameson Taillon to Homer Bailey in their 20 year old seasons, Taillon has pitched 91.2 innings and Bailey pitched 138.2 in two leagues. Taillon has 75 Ks and Bailey had 156. Taillon has a ERA of 4.43, Bailey 2.47, shockingly his ERA was lower in AA than A+. Now this was Bailey's third year in the Reds system. Cole has thrown 82.2 in his 21 year old season and when compared to Phil Hughes who threw 146, Cole and Hughes have both pitched in two different levels. Cole has 85 Ks compared to Hughes' 168, which is roughly half has many Ks in over half as many IP, and until the disasterious beginning to his AA career Cole was actually barely a run above to Hughes' ERA of 2.15 and Cole's ERA is barely above 3, with an ERA of 3.05. But again this was Hughes' third season in the Yankees system.
Cole, the overall No. 1 pick in 2011, and Taillon, the second player taken in 2010, both had disappointing starts last night with their respective minor-league teams and in both cases the trend is a bit alarming.Yes, alarming if you think guys in their first and second pro season respectivley should be seasoned veterans. He also has come to the conclusion that a guy with a 8/1 K/BB ratio, 16/2, in 15.2 IP at AA is a bust and a 20 year old who is going to past his IP total from last year in his next start is also a bust.
Pitching for Altoona in the Class AA Eastern League, Cole, who will be 22 in September, allowed six hits and three earned runs in four innings while walking one and striking out threeSo a 21 year old who going into that game had pitched 11.2 innings at AA had a rough outing, color me shocked.
Pitching in the Class A Florida State League for Bradenton, Taillon, who will be 21 in November, allowed six hits and six earned run in 4 2/3 innings while walking four and striking out two. Taillon’s performance is far more troubling because it comes at a lower level and after an excellent start to the season. His monthly earned run averages tell this story: 1.46, 4.94, 5.86, 6.17So a 20 year old who has yet to pitch this many innings before in a single year against guys that are just as good as him is struggling, what a shock.
Taillon ranks 25th in ERA in the FSL, seventh in WHIP and 10th in strikeouts. Opponents are hitting .233 against him. After a particularly bad stretch of four starts -- 9.31 ERA -- Taillon pitched better in his next three -- ERA 2.37 -- but last night was another downer. So he has a high ERA, but looks good in every other stat for a kid who's 20 and has to be wearing down due to his lack of being used to throwing this many innings before. Cole pitched well enough in the FSL -- 5-1, 2.56 ERA, .217 BAA -- that he was promoted to Altoona last month. He has been overmatched in four starts with a 5.17 ERA and .324 BAA. On the positive side, he has 16 strikeout and two walks in 15 2/3 innings.Sure his Ks are way higher than his walks and did very well in A+, but he's not going to do anything because he had 4 bad starts in AA, the logic of Smizik everyone. All stats from BBRef.com