FanPost

An adjusted form of wOBA for 2012


As I would assume is the case for most Pirates fans, I am depressed pretty much every day about the ending to this season. As a result, I just don't think I can post any more about the downard spiral that is the 2nd half of this season. So here is an analysis of a potential adjusted form of weighted on base average!

With the season coming to a close the NL and AL MVP races are heating up and this is just another way of looking at offensive contribution. I took wOBA, and adjusted it by using each player's career babip and not just this season. I used each player's career babip to calculate how many hits each player should have. Then, using the percentage of hits each player had as 1B, 2B, and 3B to calculate a new wOBA based upon a more sample size friendly babip. Again, keep in mind that HR, RBOE, NIBB, and RBOE all did not change from the babip adjustment.

The top 5 players based on this adjusted wOBA (their regular wOBA rank):

1) Miguel Cabrera (1): 0.428

2) Ryan Braun (2): 0.418

3) Mike Trout (3): 0.405

4) Edwin Encarnacion (6): 0.404

5) Josh Hamilton (8): 0.401

....

14) Andrew McCutchen (4): 0.378

The top 5 luckiest players, listed in basis points wOBA is above my adj wOBA:

1) Melky Cabrera: 509

2) Torii Hunter: 413

3) Alcides Escobar: 306

4) Andrew McCutchen: 292

5) Miguel Montero: 261

The top 5 unluckiest players listed in basis points wOBA is below my adj wOBA:

1) Ichiro Suzuki: 365

2) Jemile Weeks: 323

3) Kevin Youkilis: 305

4) Michael Young: 280

5) Hanley Ramirez: 276

I realize the potential problems with this adjustment which include, but are not limited to:

1) This is not park-adjusted

2) babip in the past 3 years may be more applicable to use than career babip since guys like Ichiro are at the tail end of their careers

Both of these things, as well as several other adjustments could be made, but I think what I did was a decent start.

Thoughts?

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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