FanPost

Reliable Mediocrity

In a comment on last night's game recap, I referred to Kevin Correia as "reliably mediocre". Using Game Scores, this article tries to quantify that.

For the uninitiated, Game Scores are a quick measure of the quality of a starting pitcher's game. A Game Score of 50 is basically average, with a Game Score of 65 being considered a "Gem" (per John Dewan). On the other side, we could consider a Game Score below 35 as a "Bomb". The following chart shows Correia's Game Scores for the 2012 season:

7946909602_05d3bf8116_medium

Red lines are "Gem" (65), average (50), and "Bomb" game scores. Blue lines are Correia's mean game score (48.5) and +/- one standard deviation, and the diamonds are individual games.

Correia has clearly been mediocre (his mean game score is right around 50), and his variance has been fairly low. In addition, he's only had two games that were in the "Bomb" range - and no "Gems".

Contrast with someone like Bedard - whose mean game score of 48 is right around Correia's:

7946909690_d9b2abfd18_medium

Bedard's standard deviation is larger, and there are far more games outside the Gem/Bomb ranges - three "Gems", including two games with Game Scores of 78, where Correia hasn't put up a Game Score over 63; on the other hand, Bedard threw seven Bombs.

No Pirates starter has fewer Bombs than Correia - AJ has two, and Karstens has two in only 15 starts. McDonald has five, but also has nine Gems (as does AJ).

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results," and all that - but if you're looking for a starter who is likely to keep you in the game, you could do worse than KC. He's not going to dominate, but he's also not likely to get blown out.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of the managing editor (Charlie) or SB Nation. FanPosts are written by Bucs Dugout readers.

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