FanPost

A Path to a Russell Martin Extension, Volume 1



Here's a potential path to funding a Russell Martin contract extension (just noodling, feel free to weigh in on anything):

Current payroll can increase by as much as $27 mil, between fixed increase and potential arb increases for players under control in 2015:

Fixed increases:

  • Morton - $4 mil
  • Cutch - $2.5 mil
  • Marte $0.5 mil
  • TOTAL - $7.0 mil

    Arb increases (projected - by me :-) - incremental increase only);

  • Pedro - $2.5 mil
  • Walker - $3 mil
  • Watson - $1 mil
  • Harrison - $3 mil
  • Hughes - $0.5 mil
  • Gaby - $1.5 mil
  • Melancon - $2 mil
  • Jeanmar - $0.5 mil
  • Stewart - $1 mil
  • Ike - $1.5 mil
  • Worley - $2 mil
  • Frieri - $1.5 mil
  • TOTAL - $20 mil

    And there are a variety of ways it will come down, through both passive (FA departures) and proactive means (trades, releases, non-tenders, etc. - keep in mind that the potential exists to trade ALL of these guys in a net-neutral/net-positive way, so the suggested transaction below isn't the only way to remove their salaries - FYI). Those ways include:

  • Liriano FA (down $6 mil from 2014, replace w/min. wage Kingham)
  • Barmes FA ($2 mil, replace w/ min. utility - Anna/Martinez type)
  • Volquez FA ($5 mil, replace w/Cumpton/Sadler/Phils-subsidized AJ/Taillon/Sampson/???)
  • Gomez non-tender ($500K, go to $1 mil in arb, replace w/min. RP or converted SP)
  • Snider non-tender ($1.2 mil, go to $2+ mil, replace w/min. Decker/Rojas/etc.)
  • Stewart non-tender ($1 mil, go to $1.5-$2, replace w/min. TSanchez)
  • Frieri non-tender ($3.8 mil, go to $5-$6, replace w/min. Oliver/Obispo or Mazzaro/MiL FA/?)
  • I. Davis non-tender ($3.5 mil, go to $5+, replace w/min. Lambo, JBell mid-season?)
  • Pedro trade/non-tender ($4.3 mil, go to $6-$7, replace with arb/$3 mil ? JHay)
  • DFA Morel (simply to avoid going from min. to whatever increase he would get as Arb1)
  • Find/someone/anyone for salary relief on Tabata ($3 mil, go to $4, maybe recoup $1-$3?)

That's ~ $30 mil potentially off the CURRENT books, putting you in net savings territory for a moment, realizing that you'll be even better off (payroll-wise) in 2015 as you will also avoid the $7-$8 mil in arb increases if all arb-eligibles would stay instead

NOTE: Alternatives to a couple of the above moves could be to non-tender Gaby instead of Ike, and roll the dice with a RH platoon Matt Hague until Josh Bell arrives. IMO, Ike-to-Lambo seems safer (save $1 mil less with Gaby-to-Hague, as Gaby has lower salary than Ike).

You could also non-tender Vance Worley ($500K, but who will likely go to maybe $2+ mil in his 1st arb, but you can make that decision once you have a better feel for overall SP/bullpen depth and other realistic min. wage options.

At the end of all that, you replace those $30 mil guys with about $6 mil worth of guys.

Looked at another way:

If your starting rotation is: Cole, Morton, Locke, Kingham and Worley (or Cumpton, Sadler, mid-season Taillon, etc.)

If your bullpen is: Melancon, Watson, Wilson, Hughes, Pimentel, Oliver and a #7-type guy (one of starters above or other AAA guy or MiL FA)

If your outfield is: Cutch, Polanco, Marte, Rojas (or Decker)

If your infield is: Gaby/Lambo, Walker, Mercer, JHay

If you have 2 other utility/bench bats (Anna/Hague/Martinez/Morel types, with maybe a MiL FA or PH/bench-bat type (on open market, nothing crazy), or a Decker/d'Arnaud)

If you have TSanchez as the back-up catcher........

.......then you're looking at a rough payroll of around $51 million, before you have to pay Russell Martin. Looked at thru those lenses, you've got a ton of room to figure out how affordable Martin is. The comfort level with that kind of team (compared to today's team) will hinge for most folks on the following:

JHay in lieu of Pedro.

Lambo in lieu of Ike (but with Josh Bell en route).

An upcoming RP in lieu of Frieri and/or Jeanmar.

An upcoming SP (or Worley) in lieu of a veteran/FA pitcher of some kind).

An upcoming/MiL FA-type set of reserves in lieu of Snider, Barmes, etc.

Buy up an SP (Volquez+ range) or RP ($1-$2 mil range) or bigger bench bat, etc. could put you back up another $10 mill.

Which means that you could pay Russell Martin something like $15 million, and still only have payroll at around $76 million, virtually where it is (or less) right now.

Noodle away!

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