Since the hot stove has cooled dramatically and we are so close to the start of Spring Training, I thought it would be a good idea to discuss some prospects, specifically predictions.

Which prospect do you think will have a breakout year?

Which prospect will falter?

Which prospect who faltered last year will rebound the most?

Which 1st year pro will have the best season?

Who wins the Pirates minor league pitcher and hitter of the year awards?

With Spring Training just a couple of weeks away I'm wondering if anybody has heard anything about the plans for pre- and post-game shows and hosts on the new flagship (93.7 The Fan).

I'm not optimistic, but I'm hoping BD regular David Todd makes the jump. I'd be okay with Rocco DeMarro as well. I also wouldn't be shocked to see a blogger have a regular roll in the show. However, I've heard nothing and would appreciate any updates yinz can provide. I'll be severly disappointed if any of the regular hosts on the KDKA formats are simply told to run a Pirates-centric talk show after games instead of something in the mode of what Rocco & DT provided in recent years at ClearChannel.

Good day.

(sorry if this is in appropriate use of a FanPost but I couldn't figure out how to make the FanShot work).

Jayson Stark has a, in my opinion, ridiculous article up now comparing the parity between the NFL and MLB. But don't take my word for it...have a look for yourself here. He seems to forget that parity is about opportunity, not relative to a particular set of random good/poor choices by a franchise. The teams that compete year in and year out in the NFL do so because they make good decisions. The teams that compete year in and year out in the MLB do so because they can afford to.

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Starling Marte
4. Josh Bell
5. Luis Heredia
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Stetson Allie
10. Nick Kingham
11. Rudy Owens
12. Jeff Locke
13. Jarek Cunningham
14. Alex Dickerson
15. Zack Von Rosenberg
16. Colton Cain
17. Jordy Mercer
18. Zack Dodson
19. Clayton Holmes
20. Alen Hanson
21. Yamaico Navarro
22. Justin Wilson
23. Bryan Morris
24. Matt Curry
25. Jose Osuna
26. Gorkys Hernandez
27. Mel Rojas, Jr.
28. Ramon Cabrera
29. Matt Hague
30. Tyler Glasnow

There they are. Glasnow, Hague, and Mercer were the only ones who didn't appear on BA's top 30. They had Victor Black, Brandon Cumpton, and Evan Chambers instead. Of the players that both lists included, the standard deviation was pretty small. If you ignore Glasnow, Hague, and Mercer, the SD was just 2.6 between our list and BA's. Bryan Morris was the only guy with a >10 spot gap between lists (though Mercer, who was 17 for us and not on BA's list, and Black, who was 19 for BA and not even in consideration when our poll closed, probably should count as well).

21 of the players on our list were drafted; five were international free agents; and four came in trades. Ten are RHP; five LHP. Two catchers, four 1B, four MI, and five outfielders. Zero 3B, unless you want to count Navarro there instead of as a middle infielder.

I thought this project started a lot of great discussions, and even though the list is done, hopefully we can keep the discussions going here.

I tend to ask everyone and their mother this heading into or around Spring Training every year, and now that I'm a part of BucsDugout I figure I can get even more opinions, not to mention they'll probably be more intelligent as well.

I'll break this up into Pitching and Position, neglecting the minors for now. The order I list them doesn't necessarily suggest who I think has a better chance either.

Pitching:

There are a few obvious things that can happen with the pitching situation. Erik Bedard could live up to his potential and be lights out, or his arm could fall off mid-seson as well. James McDonald and Charlie Morton could make huge strides forward and tap into their potential. Jeff Karstens could also make or break the rotation. Here a few less discussed players:

1.) Kevin Correia:

I kind of feel dirty for suggesting this, but the guy was more than solid on the road, and full knowing that he'll be heading into free agency at the end of the season I wouldn't doubt a turn around at home. He could very well step up as the Bucs will probably depend on him for quite a few innings. I've half-jokingly suggested before that Hurdle should sit him during home games and give a lefty his home starts to benefit from PNC, though that won't happen anywhere but my day dreams.

2.) Jo-Jo Reyes:

Ray Searage appears to be a miracle worker, and Reyes is young with some decent peripherals and a solid history in the minors. Worst case scenario he could be an effective lefty out of the pen.

3.) Chris Leroux:

Leroux's been discussed a good bit as to whether or not he'll get some starts or work out of the pen and how he no longer has any remaining options. He fared well in a small sample size in the bigs last season after some rough stints between AA and AAA. The brass seems pretty mum on the possibility of him starting, but he could be called on if situations get desperate. It'd be better than seeing another Aaron Thompson out there.

4.) Brad Lincoln:

It seems like forever ago that some fans were looking forward to Lincoln's debut. The guy has solid stuff and could be called on to be a dependable fifth starter, but it would be nice to see more. I'd love to see him turn it on, and I think he's still got the ability to do so, though the clock's running out on him.

5.) Shairon Martis:

Martis was pretty impressive for the Nats for awhile in '09 and he's still incredibly young at 24. He's got the stuff, but does he have the work ethic? His weight has presented struggles for him before, but if he could perform well he could very well work his way into a rotation that's far from concrete.


Position Players:

Once again I'll avoid the more obvious situations. We all know that Pedro needs to perform for the Bucs to be successful in 2012 and beyond. Alex Presley is also expected to play a big part in the face of the offense so I'll try to stay away from those guys.

1.) Garrett Jones

Garrett's had a bit of a fall from grace. He was once thought to be the next power hitter in a Pirates uniform, but at this point in time appears to just be lightning in a bottle or streaky at best. To his defense, he's bounced back and forth between outfield and first base, and seems to be fighting his own mentality at times. If Jones can come into the season prepared to play first and get off to a good start at the plate he could catch fire and reclaim the nick name "legend" once more. I believe he realizes he's on a short leash, after openly admitting to being nervous at the non-tender deadline. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

2.) Casey McGehee:

McGehee was a solid pickup by NH and he had impressive 2009 and 2010 campaigns, but became disposable to the Brewers after a glum 2011. If Mcgehee and turn it back on this year he could very well steal the first base job from under GFJ or third from Pedro if that situation is morbid again. McGehee has some great pop and everyone in the greater Pittsburgh area and then some knows the Pirates are starving for right handed power, or any power. If he turns it on McGehee could be fun to watch, plus hes a chubby guy and well, I always root for the chubby guy.

3.) Jose Tabata:

2011 was sizing up to be the year of Jose. He came into camp stronger, looking to add a little more pop to his swing, and after an impressive rookie debut in 2010 things were looking up, but those hopes fizzled rather quickly as Jose couldn't seem to avoid nagging injuries. Jose still looks strong, and with a new training staff he'll hopefully last the full season. I wouldn't expect him to start launching bombs per-say, but adding some more extra-base power isn't out of the question. If all pans out correctly, Tabata and Presley could be a force at the top of the lineup.

4.) Michael McKenry:

What? You don't have Fort Fever? Lies. It's hard not to root for McKenry. The guy has a strong work ethic, is young, has impressive minor league numbers, and Pittsburgh loves him. McKenry is nearly a shoe-in for the back up catcher job, and should expect to see some significant time if he does so as Barajas doesn't project to be catching many more than 100 games. In an organization short on catching, McKenry could provide a real boost for now and the short-term future if those hitting sessions with Clint Hurdle pay off.

5.) Neil Walker:

Another guy who Pittsburgh loves, Walker appears to be the unofficial team captain. This is a fortunate situation for the Pirates to have as since Walker took off in 2010 he's taken some pressure off McCutchen as the face of the franchise, and seems to be happy to do so. Neil isn't your prototypical second baseman, but proved he could handle it with ease last season, being nominated for a Golden Glove. Neil also doesn't size up well as a clean-up hitter, but indications are he could very well start the season hitting fourth since no other real options exist yet. If neil can build on two solid back-to-back seasons he could prove to be extremely valuable going forward. I don't expect a huge jump, but seeing him get closer to 20 HR's with a jump in average and slugging would be refreshing.


The cold, hard truth is that the NL Central is changing and the Pirates have an outside shot of competing, though everything must go right for that to happen. If even one or two of those guys listed above turn it up a notch, it could prove to be a boost to a team that deserves a few breaks...about 20 years worth.

Juan Cruz is a 33-year old RHP who appeared in 56 games with the Tampa Rays last year, pitching 48.2 innings with a 3.88 ERA. He struck out 46 and walked 28. Cruz has always put up good K/9 numbers, but control has been a problem throughout his career, as demonstrated by his 4.8 BB/9. Cruz's fastball velocity averaged 92.8 MPH last year and he threw it 42 percent of the time. He also throws a cutter (30 percent last year), slider (20 percent) and change (8 percent). Cruz is the 20th non-roster invitee to spring training.

Cruz broke into the majors with the Cubs in 2001 at age 22 and has also pitched for the Braves, A's, Diamondbacks and Royals in addition to the Rays. This seems like a very low-risk signing that will provide additional relief depth. With the bullpen the apparent strength of the major league team, it's curious that Neal Huntington hasn't supplemented the starting rotation in a similar fashion. At least not yet.

Exploiting inefficiencies has been all the rage the last decade, starting with Billy Beane's prioritization of OBP and continuing with Andrew Friedman's success emphasizing defense. You could argue that Neil Huntington has tried to exploit opportunity in the amateur draft over the last several years, with the results still TBD.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, Ben Lindberg argues today that the next inefficiency could be in-game management, which he estimates could make a difference of up to 3 wins per year. Imagine Dan Fox sitting next to Clint Hurdle in the dugout and telling him that the statistically prudent move would be to have Pedro Alvarez lay down a suicide-squeeze bunt with Rod Barajas on third.

Whether in-game management is an inefficiency worth 3 games a year, I'm not sure. But I think it raises two questions: 1) What are the next inefficiencies in baseball? 2) Are those inefficiencies significant enough to make a demonstrable difference in wins?

I raise this because it's imperative for small-to-mid-market teams like the Pirates to unearth innovative and sound strategies for generating wins, and the opportunities to significantly and consistently impact the standings may be dwindling. Several writers/experts have suggested that the new wave of smart GMs around baseball will reduce the effectiveness of inefficiency exploitation, which Lindberg summarizes nicely:

We’ve established that teams are getting smarter. It’s becoming increasingly difficult for them to discover something their competitors don't already know. And as I wrote in December, “the less variation there is among GMs, the stronger the correlation between spending and winning will become.”

We'll see a MLB team in Wheeling, WV, before we see a salary cap, so how do the small-market teams like the Pirates consistently find a way to compete with the large-market clubs? Exemplary drafts on an annual basis? Acting like a wealthy team and signing big-ticket free agents? Increased reliance on specialization? More post-game concerts by Styx? Luck?

The general question may be rhetorical: The best inefficiencies are ones that haven't gone mainstream, so we'll be hard pressed as fans to come up with the answer. But it will be interesting to see if Huntington and Co. are smart enough to produce new solutions in an increasingly difficult landscape.

Dave Cameron wrote a post over on USS Mariner which was critical of Seattle's inaction this off-season. It seems to me that if you substitute some of the particulars you have a fairly apt critique of the Pirates work thus far this winter.

The Pirates project to be about a 72 win team, the Mariners about 75. As Cameron points out there's generally team that outplays such projections as result of luck or a number players exceeding expectations, etc. Were the Pirates to exceed the 72 win projection by say 5 games so that their current squad projected to win 77 games, the addition of Edwin Jackson (and his 3.8 WAR) might mean that they then would have a reasonable chance of finishing around 500.

This shouldn't be the goal because it would finally erase the losing streak but because as Cameron points out there's real value to striving for relevancy and at least remaining on the fringes of contention deep into the season. In terms of increased attendance and revenue but also because I think it's important for the Pirates to build on the improvement they made from 2010 to 2011. This shouldn't of course be at the expense of what they're building towards in 2013 and onward. But they seem to have little interest, at least from the information available to the public, in making cost effective improvements to the 2012 team, which wouldn't at all undermine the rebuilding process.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/20348/defining-whos-mr-average#comment

Two Bucco Players are brought up in the article

Catcher: Rod Barajas, .258 Equivalent Average (EqA). Sure, he struggles to get on base, but Barajas’ modest pop at the plate -- delivering a .200 ISO last season -- and solid receiving skills makes him the acme of average from the backstop bin. In Pittsburgh, he might help propel their latest bid for a .500 season.
Runner-up: The Brewers’ Jonathan Lucroy, .254 EqA.

Shortstop: Clint Barmes, .257 EqA. Here we have another Pirates offseason acquisition, which might be taken as proof that average is the new up, or that it takes a certain kind of player to choose to go to Pittsburgh. But more fundamentally, Barmes reflects today’s higher standard for adequacy on offense at short, because beyond premium defense he ripped a dozen homers for the Astros.
Runner-up: The White Sox’s Alexei Ramirez, .256 EqA, and another example after knocking 15 homers of his own.

Matt Hague is our #29 prospect. He got 36% of the vote, with Tyler Glasnow the runner-up at 15%.

1. Gerrit Cole
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Starling Marte
4. Josh Bell
5. Luis Heredia
6. Robbie Grossman
7. Tony Sanchez
8. Kyle McPherson
9. Stetson Allie
10. Nick Kingham
11. Rudy Owens
12. Jeff Locke
13. Jarek Cunningham
14. Alex Dickerson
15. Zack Von Rosenberg
16. Colton Cain
17. Jordy Mercer
18. Zack Dodson
19. Clayton Holmes
20. Alen Hanson
21. Yamaico Navarro
22. Justin Wilson
23. Bryan Morris
24. Matt Curry
25. Jose Osuna
26. Gorkys Hernandez
27. Mel Rojas, Jr.
28. Ramon Cabrera
29. Matt Hague

I guess I'll add Cayonez and Lambo, since they got write-in votes last time. Poll will run for 24 hours.

This is going to be the last time I post the poll. If someone else wants to take up the mantle and keep it going, please do so. If not, I'll post some sort of wrap-up in the next couple days, which we can use to discuss the system in general and everyone who didn't make the list.