Thoughts On Casey Deal

by Charlie on Dec 7, 2005 2:28 AM EST in News Comment 5 comments

Dejan Kovacevic says the Pirates may keep trading pitching this offseason, but even with money left over after the Sean Casey trade, this was probably the Pirates' big move of the offseason.

Sorry for the cynicism that follows, but I've been a Pirates fan too long to be able to help it:

DJ AnyReason, in the comments to my last post about Casey:

See, Sean Casey is a big name, so if the Pirates get him, it looks like they're doing something to try to win. That way, more people will buy tickets, because they think the bucs are trying to win (and the Trib will assure them the Pirates have a great shot at contending, now that we have a REAL 1b, and we're assured of at least .500). Then, they can say "Hey, lookit all the money we spent on Sean Casey! We really did increase payroll!" and then go bargain shopping the rest of the offseason and nobody will be the wiser.

Plus, Casey's a local kid, so that's even better for PR and the gate! It's brilliant! Casey will easily pay for himself. Then, next year, when we don't resign him, the Pirates can cry about how unfair the market is, and confuse people for at least another year or two into thinking they're actually trying to win, not just rake in as much money as they can.

I think this is spot-on. Casey hasn't been a great ballplayer for years, and while he's better than many of the stiffs who've played for the Bucs recently, he's not a particularly good bet to be even a good one going forward. His value to the Pirates lies mostly in his Pittsburgh roots. Pictures like this one of Casey from his days at Upper St. Clair, which appears in today's Post-Gazette, are very valuable to the Pirates in terms of marketing. (Although I'm sure they wish Casey hadn't gotten baked before the picture was taken.) The Pirates appear to be getting a star, and a popular, likable, hometown star at that.

There is definitely value in having a popular player. Exactly how much value is difficult to quantify, but I feel quite comfortable saying that, for example, the Mariners are getting much more from Ichiro Suzuki than just a stat line.

The trouble with that is that the fans aren't likely to ever see any of that marketing money. It'll disappear into the pockets of Kevin McClatchy and Ogden Nutting. Meanwhile, when the Pirates lose next year (and they will), the ownership can say, "Hey, we tried to spend money. It didn't work."

As a ballplayer rather than a stoned-looking face in an Upper St. Clair uniform, Casey's value to the Pirates is limited. He'll essentially be replacing some combination of Brad Eldred, Nate McLouth and Jody Gerut next year. Casey had an 804 OPS in 2005, and he's on the wrong side of 30. I'd put the odds of one of Eldred, McLouth and Gerut beating an 804 OPS at about 70 percent.

You can quibble with that guess if you like, but either way, Casey is at best a marginal upgrade for the Pirates. He hit NINE homers last year. Think about that.

Also, he'll be a free agent after 2006, meaning he'll probably be gone at this time next year. Why are the Pirates trading real talent and spending money for a marginal upgrade? Because Casey will help them make money that you and I will never see. That's the only sensible reason I can think of.

Man, I try to get excited about the Pirates' future, I get my hopes up because they make noises about acquiring legitimately helpful players this offseason, and then they go and do this.

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Yeah....

I see your point, and you're probably right, but this is so much better than the other established guys they've brought in in the past. Other than the fact that this guy somehow has an 8 mill contract for this year (!) I don't particularly mind it. But it is a marketing stunt for sure. Two questions however...first, how is Casey defensively? And second, where does this leave the issues of 3rd base and RF? Mackowiak/Snachez and Wilson?

by ILLZ on Dec 7, 2005 10:11 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Another thing

Why do you say that this is the only "big bat" they're going to bring in? Casey is apparently only going to cost about $5 mill more than Williams and I was under the impression Littlefield was going to bump payroll about $15 million...is that little shopping spree over with? Are we gonna sign some low level guys and then McClatchy will pocket the rest?

by ILLZ on Dec 7, 2005 10:17 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

With respect to the talent involved

this trade is akin to the Leo Nunez for Benito Santiago trade Littlefield made last winter. While Casey is not on his last legs like Santiago was, he's probably on the descending part of his career path. Williams, for his part, is a major leaguer, not a prospect like Nunez. Still, by trading Williams for Casey, Littlefield really did not mean to make the Pirates appreciably better than they were last season. He meant only to help the organization to tread water at a level more acceptable than the 67 wins his team posted last year, an important goal for the McClatchy partnership in their All Star game year. Moreover, Littlefield traded a valuable asset away for a one-year solution for his firstbase problem. Even if Casey were to put together his last great season for the Pirates in 2006, his doing so would only serve to increase the price the Pirates would need to pay him in 2007 and beyond. His greater value will issue from the PR he'll generate for the team, as Charlie noted.

With regards to breaking out of the `Drive for 75' cycle, the best Pirate fans can hope for from the Casey trade: The team might get a few draft choices from Casey when he signs with another team in 2007.

by steve_z on Dec 7, 2005 11:35 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Oh, and

trading Williams also increases the chances that the Pirates will put a good young starting rotation on the field in 2006. Still, Williams was preferable to Wells, Redman, Fogg or the Veteran Presence he'll sign if he trades away each of his veteran pitchers now on the roster.

by steve_z on Dec 7, 2005 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What are the cheapskates likely to do next year?

If Casey has a good year in 2006, offering him arbitration would make sense for the cheapskate Pirates.

The reason: Casey would refuse arbitration because he'd want that last big multi-year contract, a contract he could reasonably expect to get and one the McClatchy partnership would reluctantly offer. Of course, the partnership, being cheapskates, might not want to risk paying Casey >$10 M for the 2007 season. So, they might not offer Casey arbitration even though they could rationally expect Casey to refuse the offer.

Still, one can always hope the partnership will do the right thing.

by steve_z on Dec 7, 2005 3:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs