Cardinals Sign Chris Carpenter to Massive Extension

by Charlie Wilmoth on Dec 4, 2006 5:48 PM EST in News

The Cards have Chris Carpenter to a five-year, $65 million extension.

If that were all there were to the story, this would be a pretty good deal - Carpenter is a great pitcher. But given the leverage the Cardinals had, this is excessive. The Cards had Carpenter signed for $7 million in 2007 and an option for $9 million in 2008. This deal includes those two years. So they're essentially paying $49 million for 2009, 2010, and 2011, plus they get a club option for 2012. That's a lot to pay for a time period that's many years in the future, when Carpenter will be ages 34-36 and might not be nearly as good as he is now.

This could be a good deal if the market spirals out of control and Carpenter continues to be a great pitcher, but I wouldn't bet on both those things happening.

Tweet Comment 3 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

carpenter

With Carpenter's injury history, I would have waited another year before offering this kind of extension.

But pitching is so expensive (see Randy Wolf, Adam Eaton) that I'm feeling strangely optimistic about the Pirates. Having Duke, Snell, Maholm and Gorzelanny at cheap prices puts the team at a big advantage over their rivals.

If I were GM, I wouldn't trade any of them unless there was the potential of landing a total stud. Someone like the troubled Elijah Dukes.

I would, however, trade a reliever. It's not that difficult to find a pitcher who can throw one good inning. It's really tough to find one that can throw six.

by bolton on Dec 4, 2006 8:59 PM EST reply actions

risk and rewards

Yeah, it's a risky deal, but maybe less risky than a lot of teams are going to give pitchers in the next month. I think the Cards looked at who is available this winter, and the past few, and decided they'd rather pay Carpenter than have to make choices like the Rangers are having to make now.
I also don't think you gave enough emphasis on the potential for this deal to be a steal. Carpenter is capable of doing what Kevin Brown did in his age 34-36 seasons. Even if the market for baseball players slows its rate of ascent, I could get behind shelling out for that upside.
It's true that this is a risky deal because Carpenter could blow his rotator cuff tomorrow and never pitch again. But here's an important question - and I haven't thought much about the answer: how often do 30-32 year old great pitchers up and disappear? Sink back to average within two seasons?

by estranged o on Dec 5, 2006 12:05 PM EST reply actions

answered my own question

OK, in partial answer to my question I spent some time I shouldn't have flipping through the internet baseball award results for the past ten years or so. I came up with a list of pitchers who were very good to great until they were about Carpenter's age. Then I judged whether they still would be desirable signs after their age 33 year (the Cards are gambling that Carpenter will be). I put them into four rough categories: sustained performance, significant dropoff in performance by 33, worst case scenerio and jury's still out.

Sustained performance:
Schmidt: Great @ 30-31. Very good @ 33
Mussina: very good @ 30-31 Good @ 33
Pedro: Great @ 31 Great @ 33
Johnson: Great @ 31 Great @ 33
Schilling: Great @ 31, injured @ 33, great @ 34-35
Maddux: Great @ 31, good @33, great @ 34-36
Smoltz: Great @ 31, injured @ 33, great again by 35
Glavine: Great @ 31, very good @ 33
Clemens: Great @31, good @ 33, (great @ 34)
Pettitte: very good @ 31, great @ 33 (career year)
Brown: Great @ 31, great @ 33
Key: very good @ 31, good @ 33

Dropoff in performance:
Cone: great @ 31, great @ 33-34 (though injured much)
Appier: good to great through 29, bad @ 30-31
Benes: good 28-30, terrible by 33

Worst case scenerio:
A. Fernandez: very good @ 29, done @ 30

Jury's still out:
Hudson: very good @ 29, bad @ 30

So, extremely roughly, that's 12 pitchers who were great to very good at 31 and still desirable at 33, and four who would have been questionable to bad long-term investments at similar stages of their careers. Only one of those four dropped off the map completely (Fernandez) and one was still useful though oft-injured (Cone).

I'd take the gamble.

by estranged o on Dec 5, 2006 1:24 PM EST reply actions