.500 Isn't Happening

by Charlie on Sep 5, 2006 4:56 PM EDT in News Comment 5 comments

...[T]he things that would need to be done to make the Pirates a .500 team in 2007 aren't really that difficult.

Van Slyke goes on to say that he has no faith that the Pirates' management will do what it should take to make that happen. (Neither do I, obviously.)

There's no need for cold water here - the fire's not exactly out of control to begin with - but I can't even agree with the assertion that the Pirates aren't that far from being a .500 team, even in the horrible National League. The Pirates are 27 games below 500. Their equivalent runs and equivalent runs allowed suggest that they're about 120 runs from being a .500 team, even before considering the weak schedule they've played this year.

120 runs is a whole lot. Let's take, for example, one of the Stats Geek's suggestions, which is to give 30 Victor Santos / B.P. Chacon / Kip Wells / Oliver Perez starts to a "real pitcher."

Okay. Let's give those 30 starts to, let's say, Brad Penny. The Pirates aren't getting Penny or anyone anywhere near as good as Penny, but he is a "real pitcher" and he's made 28 starts. This year, Penny has been 35 runs better than a replacement-level pitcher, according to Baseball Prospectus. 30 starts by the Santos / Chacon / Wells /Perez group, who had a 5.88 ERA with the Pirates, would be worth about 10 runs below replacement level. So replacing 30 starts by bad pitchers with Penny, a pitcher much better than any the Pirates are likely to get, improves the Bucs by 45 runs, only a little more than a third of the distance back to .500.

The trouble with even that analysis is that you can't make 30 starts of bad pitching disappear by acquiring a single player. Remember, the reason Perez and Wells were in the rotation in the first place is because the Pirates hoped, with some cause, that they'd produce this year. What if one of the Pirates' young pitchers pulls a Perez next year? Or what if one of them gets injured? There's no depth left in the minors, so if one bad thing happens to any of the Pirates' starters, well, it's B.P. time.

The Pirates aren't an average starter away from having a .500 team. They're a Vlad Guerrero and a Johan Santana away from having a .500 team, and that's only if those guys replace replacement-level players.

The Pirates might get some improvement from players they already have, of course - Ryan Doumit, Jose Castillo and Zach Duke all come to mind. But a lot of that will be offset by regressions by other players - Freddy Sanchez, for example. As young as this team is, it's not exactly brimming with upside.

In a fantasy universe where the Pirates have a good GM and a bit of money to spend, their best hope for finishing .500 is to sign a star player, grab one or two starters in case someone has an injury, and hope for big improvements from Castillo and the starting pitchers. And even that's a longshot.

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I think...

I think some messy typing skills (I was trying to rush a post out before class) may have kind of obscured what I really meant. What I've been saying for a while and meant to imply in the post is that what Littlefield has done flies in the face of common sense and that it wouldn't even take a particularly great GM to finish .500 a couple times during the years DL has been here. The way the team is currently structured, I don't agree with the Stats Geek's theory that a Corey Lidle type pitcher make us a contending team, too many years of Littlefield's management have put us beyond that, even if he has a sudden flash of brilliance in the offseason.

Of course, it is true that contention currently means something entirely different in the NL than it usually does and that a freakshow year like '97 is probably possible with the current players, as you mention I'm afraid that the window was this year, especially with the year Sanchez is having.

by Pat on Sep 5, 2006 6:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What i think

Players that will improve next year:
Duke
Maholm
Snell
Gorzellany
Castillo
Bautista
Nady
Doumit
McLouth/Duffy (They can't be much worse)

Players that contributed significantly to our -120 run differential that won't be here next year:
Burnitz -2.3 VORP
Jose Hernandez -.4
Randa -1.0
Cota -8.7
Perez -12.9
Wells -3.1
Reames -3.1
Chacon -1.9
Santos -1.3
Vogelsong -1.3
McLeary -.3
Total Negative Contributions: -36.3.

Much like I believed (before they signed Burnandez) that this year's team would be better with addition by subtraction (and the post-all star break record shows this), next year's team will be significantly better in the run differential department because we're getting rid of a bunch of shitty pitchers and unproductive hitters, and most of our position players are still on the upswing in terms of improvement. Castillo, Bautista, and Nady could all have huge years next year. Sure, Sanchez and Paulino might regress a little. But there's no reason to think that Sanchez can't hit .315-320 with a .360 OBP, which there is nothing wrong with. And Paulino could improve the slugging as the average falls. Unless we sign Carlos Lee or Soriano, i'd like to go into 2007 with the lineup and staff we have right now (plus JVB or Burnett in the 5 hole, who can't be any worse than Wells or Perez there), and let this team grow together one more year. The foundation is there.

by PGHcager on Sep 5, 2006 7:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I want

what bisoncager is smoking.

You assume of course that none of the young players will regress, which does seem to happen with some regularity in Pittsburgh.

And that the players on the current roster can evolve into impact players.

And that the Pirates stay injury free, which they did this year at the big league until the end of the season (Doumit doesn't eally count since Tracy would not have played Doumit to begin with).

And that impact free agents would willingly come to Pittsburgh, especially when word from McClatchy is that the payroll will remain flat for next season.

So everyone gets better and no one gets hurt and all the Pirates win more games - and they're pushing maybe 78-80 wins next season.

Yeah, pass that down the line - no need to bogart it.

by Greg Schuler on Sep 5, 2006 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You're taking SG way out of context

Stats Geek: "The Pirates need power and another starter."

He then expounded only on the latter, from his stats-perspective. I didn't read it at all as him saying 'if we replace all these crappy starts with a decent pitcher, voila, .500.'

>I can't even agree with the assertion that the Pirates aren't that far from being a .500 team

I guess it depends on your definition of "far".

>you can't make 30 starts of bad pitching disappear by acquiring a single player.

On paper, I think you can. Really, it's part retrospect. Forget about "acquiring" Penny, it's just an examination of the idea of "if we had Penny-or-equivalent this year instead of..." with the idea of doing just that next year.

azibuck

by azibuck on Sep 6, 2006 12:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs