J.C. Romero Re-Signs with Philadelphia

by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 11, 2007 12:49 AM EST in News

It's three years and $12 million with an option for a fourth year, which is just crazy. Romero used to be a pretty good reliever for the Twins, but that was some time ago. He was terrible for the Angels in 2006 and got released by the Red Sox in 2007. Then he went to the Phillies and posted a 1.24 ERA that was utterly out of step with his peripherals and talent level. Romero does an outstanding job keeping the ball on the ground, but look - the guy had 42 strikeouts and 40 walks last year. He's a good fit for Citizens Bank Park, but three years and $12 million is far too great a commitment for a guy like this.

Now may be a good time to reiterate that trading established relievers - guys like Damaso Marte, who's twice the lefty specialist Romero is - is a very good idea for a team in the Pirates' position.

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Romero

I don't think the signing was crazy. And while Romero is not going to repeat the 1.25 ERA he had with the Phillies, he was not as wildly over his head as you indicate, Charley.

This is a case where you have to look past the usual K/BB data to see what the Phillies saw. Sure he was lousy before, but for the Phillies he threw 36 innings, allowed 15 hits (!!), 25 BB, and 33 K, to go with that ERA. Whip was a respectable 1.11 even with all of those walks.

He actullay had good control. He was able to consistently make good pitches within the strike zone, which he could do behind in the count, as the 15 hits show, and the BBs rarely matterd. Glavin has been pitching that way his whole career, without the outstanding H/innings Romero achieved. When you think of Glavin, you don't really see a pitcher who is wild, do you?

He's no lefty specialist. RHers hit .133 against, including his time in Boston. And he was rubbered armed and utterly dependable down the stretch when the Phillies needed him the most. The most dependable of all the Phillie relievers, except Myers when Myers was healthy.
He's very confident, even cocky. He expects to do the job when he gets in there.

Combine all of this with the Phillies desperate need for pitching, the money they have to spend, and nature of the market in FA pitchers--way overpriced--and you can see how their deal with Romero makes sense. 3 years? Well, if you think Romero can help you in '08, you can argue that at 32 he can do it for a couple more years as well. And it was going to take a multi year deal to get him.

by rogero on Nov 11, 2007 12:51 PM EST reply actions

BABIP, etc

Romero had a completely-unsustainable, totally-attributable-to-luck .167 batting average on balls in play with Philadelphia. 63% of batted balls with Philly were groundballs: he did not clear 55% in '04, '05, '06, or '07 with Boston. He allowed 1 homer in those 36 innings (as his HR/FB rate fell way below career norms). His expected ERA, given his peripherals, was 4.45 in those 36 Phillie innings.

Romero had the fluke year to end all fluke years, and Philly's signing him is incredibly stupid. There is no other word for it.

by matskralc on Nov 11, 2007 10:38 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

Romero was playing way over his head - most of his numbers would be from a fantastical September (when the team needed it most).

But Romero is LH and he proved he could pitch in Philly and Charlie Manuel trusts him. Pat Gillick is leaving and the Phillies are energized to make their run now, so the signing makes perfect sense. When/if Romero converts back to his usual self, the contract will be Ruben Amaro's headache.

by Greg Schuler on Nov 12, 2007 4:17 PM EST up reply actions

Romero

Almost missed this post.

The Bill James Handbook shows Romero with an "ERC" of 1.86 last year with the Phillies. ERC is expected ERA, like what you say you calculated; i.e., "what a pitcher's ERA should have been, based on his pitching performance". The handbook uses a 14 step formula to calculate ERCs. Seems like you should contact James, et al to spare them the embarassment of publishing numbers that are so wide of the mark.

Let me break down your claim of a 4.45 expected ERA. Romero gave up 5 earned runs in 36 1/3 innings. You say removing that horseshoe from his ass means he would have given up 13 more runs. He gave up only 15 hits. About 20 or so of those "lucky" outs should have been hits, bringing his BABIP up to about .300--what it "should" have been. Well that's an extra 9 or 10 runs right there. But more of the hits should have left the park. Throw in the 2 or 3 more homers you say he avoided by "luck", each worth something more than an extra run compared to the average hit, and voila! we've got those 13 missing runs.

yes, the numbers add up, but they mean nothing.

If you're being consistent (assuming "luck" will balance over time), I assume you're already expecting Romero's ERA for the Phillies in '08 to be about 7.65--a run of bad "luck" to balance that incredible run of good "luck" he just had (you're not claiming he's an inherently lucky guy are you?) Hey, I'll take that bet.

Back to the central point one more time. The Phillies would not have made the playoffs without Romero. He was dependable, unflappable, handled late innings for them (the high leverage innings that most affect the win column), often pitched multiple days in a row, runners on base didn't bother him, and RH hitters actually hit worse (.133) than LH off of him.

Looking to '08, the Phillie pen is very weak; they need considerable help.. Where do you think they should look to find the kind of late inning relief Romero gave them. Think a shut-down reliever will one day appear on their doorstep and only ask for a one deal at $1.5 million? `-

by rogero on Nov 12, 2007 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

Fantasy

Roger, I hope you pick up Romero for your fantasy club next year! Get him early!

by azibuck on Nov 12, 2007 10:18 PM EST up reply actions

The problem with that signing...

...is that Romero is notoriously inconsistent (in both mechanics and performance), but the Phillies are assuming that his success last year is a) purely the result of skill rather than random variation and b) sustainable over an extended period of time.

I'm not convinced that either one is necessarily the case, and it's a lot of money/years to wager on a guy who's even less of a sure thing than most RPs.

by Vlad on Nov 11, 2007 1:45 PM EST reply actions

Romero

Everybody can see his inconsistency by looking at his stats, including the Phillies. Though I don't know why you think his mechanics are a particular problem. I watched him a lot in the 3 months and 2 days he pitched for the Phillies and I didn't see anything of the sort.

His inconsistency includes both tails--spectacular dominance (1.89 ERA in 81 innings in 2002, and his 1.92 last year, including 1.25 for the Phillies) as well as periods of not so good. Put it all together, and he has a 3.58 ERA in 379 2/3 innings in the 6 years since he switched to the pen full time. That's considerably above league average, to go with the dominanct periods.

But in judging this trade, don't abstract from the Phillies' situation or the market for pitchers. The Philles had the best offense in NL last year, but are going to have a hard time scoring as many runs in '08. Rowand is probably gone. Both he and Rollins had what were probably career years. I see Burrell declining from a high .800 OPS. I don't see a lot of room for the other guys to step up much.

They strengthened their rotation considerably by putting Myers there, but weakened their pen by trading Geary, a solid middle guy, and replacing Myers with Lidge. They could not go into '08 with their only reliable relievers being Lidge (want to talk inconsistency) and a 40 year old Tom Gordon with shoulder problems.

No, the Phillies aren't assuming his results last year is his skill level. As I said, he is not going to repeat that 1.25. But they desperatley need him, or someone like him. And signing him before he can test the FA market made a lot of sense.

3 years at $12 million turns out to be the price of all of that, and they can afford to pay it. They are, they think, on the cusp of winning it all.

by rogero on Nov 11, 2007 10:33 PM EST up reply actions

When I've seen him pitch...

...it looks like his release point drifts. In my experience, guys who are wild because they have one particular flaw are sometimes correctable, but guys who are wild because they lack a repeatable delivery often aren't (since they don't have the body awareness you need to implement changes).

With this being the case, I think he's probably going to continue to be the pitcher that he's been in the past, in which case $4M a year is probably too much for someone with that kind of variance.

If the Phils really think that they're on the cusp of winning it all, they should buckle down and pay a kajillion dollars for A-Rod.

by Vlad on Nov 12, 2007 7:55 AM EST up reply actions