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News Roundup: Young/Garza Deal Happens, Pirates Shop Morris

It confuses me when well-run teams do dumb things. Like the Brewers paying Jason Kendall $4 million - why? The Delmon Young - Matt Garza I wrote about yesterday actually did happen. Unlike what was reported yesterday, Juan Rincon isn't in the deal - instead  he's replaced by minor-league reliever Eduardo Morlan. Morlan's numbers are just ridonkulous, and he has a filthy fastball and breaking ball, too. He's about as interesting as a minor-league reliever can possibly be, but even if the Rays plan on moving him back to the rotation (which seems unlikely, given that his mechanics aren't great and he doesn't have a good offspeed pitch), I still don't understand this deal. It makes me wonder whether Young is an even more difficult guy than has been reported.

-P- Unsurprisingly, the Bucs are interested in dealing Matt Morris and guesses (?) that the Cardinals may be interested, and that Anthony Reyes might be available in the right deal. If the Bucs could get Reyes, especially for a chump like Morris, that'd be a coup. Reyes has fallen out of favor in St. Louis, but he was a well-regarded prospect until fairly recently, and he's worth taking a flyer on. It seems his problem is pitching with runners in scoring position, and the reason he has that problem seems to be that he tends to throw a four-seamer rather than a two-seamer with men on, and as a result he leaves too many fastballs up in the zone with men on. In other words, a good pitching coach - well, one who isn't Dave Duncan - might be able to fix him, and if that happens, there's no reason he can't be an above-average starter.

Also, as Bryan pointed out in the diaries, the Cards may be interested in Jack Wilson. Even Dave Littlefield managed to be offered real prospects for Jack, so I see no reason to expect anything different now. The Cardinals don't have a great system, but it isn't completely barren. Top outfield prospect Colby Rasmus is almost certainly out of the question, but their other prospects might not be. Catcher Bryan Anderson is a guy I might ask about, given the lack of catching depth in the Pirates' system.

-P- I also want to mention the Xavier Nady-and-Nate McLouth-for-Chase Headley rumor, which has already been posted in the diaries and which Greg wrote to me about a couple days ago. Headley's a good third base prospect who has more upside than McLouth, and I think this trade would be a great idea. I've seen some message-board fretting about Neil Walker already being at third, but Walker's a long way from the big leagues, and if both Walker and Headley end up being good big league players, that's a good problem to have. I'd like Headley even more if he were a middle infielder or a catcher - since we don't have a top prospect at those positions - but I care far more about the fact that he can hit.

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Ridonkulous
Looking at Eduardo Morlan's minor league numbers really makes me want to join a deep keeper league...

by scoreboard on Nov 29, 2007 8:17 AM EST reply actions  

Funny you say that...
I just participated in a 28 team 60 round sim league inaugural draft and I took Morlan somewhere around the 40th round (40 mlb players + 20 minors players).

If anyone is interested to see the draft results for kicks let me know and I'll post the URL.

A-Rod went 1st overall, btw.

by OmarMoreno18 on Nov 29, 2007 2:01 PM EST up reply actions  

If only they were in another division.....
Here's the 2008 Tampa Rays (not Devil Rays) rotation:
  1.  Kazmir
  2.  Shields
  3.  Garza
  4.  E. Jackson
  5.  J. Niemann
Here's their 2009 rotation
  1.  Kazmir
  2.  Garza
  3.  Shields
  4.  Price
  5.  McGee/Davis (they're basically siamese twins anyway, one lefty, one righty, always mentioned in the same breath)
I love that 2009 rotation.  But they have to butt heads with the Sox and Yanks.  If they were in the NL East, that's a division title winning rotation.

Side note - Jim Callis of Baseball America, earlier this year, picked the Rays as 2010 World Series chanmps.

Here's the rough lineup of names....
2B Iwamura
SS Brignac
3B Longoria
LF Crawford
CF Upton

They will probably draft Alvarez at #1 this year, so there's your 1B.  I can't in good conscience put Baldelli in that lineup without a good eraser on my pencil.

This is why, without a doubt, the Rays have the top farm system in all of baseball.

by Tricky Kid on Nov 29, 2007 8:34 AM EST reply actions  

Carlos Pena
I wouldn't write him off.  The guy was third in the AL in OPS last year.  Maybe he's not really that good, but unless he's Brady Anderson he should be really solid there for a while, assuming the Rays can afford him for much longer.

I'm kinda hoping some college pitcher will have a sensational year and Alvarez will fall to the Bucs.

by WTM on Nov 29, 2007 10:05 AM EST up reply actions  

Pedro
After trading Young and getting Garza to go with all the young pitchers they already have, I think this just about kills any chance that TB will pass up Alvarez for another pitcher.

by rogero on Nov 29, 2007 10:13 AM EST up reply actions  

At least . . .
. . . until all those young pitchers start getting hurt.  It'll happen.

by WTM on Nov 29, 2007 10:22 AM EST up reply actions  

young pitchers
Which, that some of the pitchers will get hurt (agreed) or that TB will pass up Alvarez for another one?  If you're predicting the latter, I'll take that bet.

Passing up bats like Pedro for pitchers is what the Pirates do, not a real organization like TB.  Besides, if several of their young aces go down, wouldn't it make more sense to take Alvarez rather than risking their #1 on another one?

by rogero on Nov 29, 2007 10:32 AM EST up reply actions  

Pirates 2008 Draft pick
Very early, but I would guess Justin Smoak from SC.  Power hitting 1B, which I don't like to draft with the #2 overall pick, just because it's not a premium position.  That high, you should be getting a 5-tool talent or a future #1/#2.

Or draft Bullington and immediately announce he's a #3.

It was an oversight on my part about Pena, especially the fact that he's not that old, but I do think this was an aberration and that Alvarez would push him aside if necessary.

by Tricky Kid on Nov 29, 2007 11:04 AM EST up reply actions  

This is all premature
At this time a year ago, Mike Burgess looked like a reasonable candidate to go first overall, and he ended up lasting until the middle of the sandwich round.

A lot can change in a year. Maybe Alvarez will step into a gopher hole and break his ankle in May, or some toolsy 17-year-old will flip the switch and turn into a destroyer of fastballs. Who knows?

by Vlad on Nov 29, 2007 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

5 tools
I'd be careful about wishing about getting someone that is claimed to have all 5 tools. See Chad Hermanson as a perfect example. I believe we had several other #1's in the 80s and 90s that were supposed to have all 5 tools as well and never even made the majors.

The amateur draft has been going since 1965. The list of Pirates first draft choices that HAVE played in the majors for more than a cup of coffee isn't terribly long. Here it is:

1966 Richie Hebner (drafted at SS?????)
1968 Dick Sharon (OF)
1971 Craig Reynolds (SS)
1973 Steve Nicosia (C)
1974 Rod Scurry (P)
1975 Dale Berra (SS)
1980 Rich Renteria (SS)
1981 Jim Winn (P)
1982 Sammy Khalifa (SS)
1985 Barry Bonds (OF)
1986 Jeff King (3B)
1989 Willie Greene (SS, none of it with us, Zane Smith trade)
1992 Jason Kendall (C)
1993 Jermaine Allensworth (OF) borderline cup of coffee
1995 Chad Hermansen (SS) several cups of coffee
1996 Krissy Benson (P)
1997 JJ Davis (drafted at 1B/P) cups of coffee
2003 Paul Maholm (P)

That's pretty much it, unless you count Burnett, JVB, and Bullington as being up for more than a cup of coffee.

Starting with 1996, the ONLY first rounders that weren't drafted as pitchers or converted to one (JVB) are Walker and McCutchen. Tools don't seem to be a high priority to the Pirates in the first round, and they don't seem to be able to recognize one anyway. Maybe this administration will be different. We can only hope.

by Thunder on Nov 29, 2007 2:10 PM EST up reply actions  

The former
a real organization like TB

Now there's a phrase I haven't seen before.

by WTM on Nov 29, 2007 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

on the way to being real
And you wouldn't have until recently, Wilbur.  But it's time to recognize the truth of it.  Just look at how loaded they are with young talent.  Shows what can be done if you get high draft picks year after year.  Shows the Pirates can do it too, now that DL is gone.

It is true, though, that the extent to which they are a fully realized "real organization" depends on how adept they are at sorting through and keeping most of their young talent, including spending the money to do so.  That's still ahead.  I do think the way they adjusted their talent base in the Twins trade is a good first step.

by rogero on Nov 29, 2007 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

It's true.
They've generally been very sharp management-wise ever since Friedman took over, and they've been drafting well for a while now.

by Vlad on Nov 29, 2007 1:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Pena
Pre-'07, Pena had a career .790 OPS. Even if he falls a long way back toward his career baseline, he should still be useful.

by Vlad on Nov 29, 2007 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

Duncan
I was always under the impression that Dave Duncan WAS a good pitching coach... I don't know what I'm basing that on, it was just a notion in my head.  

by ILLZ on Nov 29, 2007 10:05 AM EST reply actions  

Yeah.
That's what I meant.

"A good pitching coach - well, a good pitching coach who isn't Dave Duncan..."

by Charlie Wilmoth on Nov 29, 2007 12:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Morlan
Of course TB will leave Morlan in the pen, Charlie.  He has all the makings of a shut down late inning guy.  If that weren't enough, they're loaded with young starters (add Sonnanstine and Howell to the long list already mentioned), and their bullpen has sucked for years.  Now that the other pieces are in place, a better pen is the last piece they need to compete with the big boys in the next couple of years.  I like their chances.

I sense that you and others think the only way a pitcher can have real value is to start.  Yet every year the playoffs show the opposite--just how important the pen is.  Well that's also true for the 162 games it takes to get to the playoffs.

by rogero on Nov 29, 2007 10:43 AM EST reply actions  

Don't Forget...
Two things that are under-appreciated about this deal:
  • Bartlett is significantly better than Harris, because he's a good fielder while Harris is really bad.  This part of the swap is about a 1.5 win upgrade for the Rays.
  • Delmon Young was just awful in 2007.  He hit extremely poorly and didn't field well.  Overall he was worse than replacement level, totally undeserving of any Rookie of the Year votes.  Yes, he still has all the tools that made him a top prospect and he should definitely improve.  But between his performances in AAA and the majors, he's yet to show his potential.
To me, Garza for Young is even, perhaps a small advantage to the Twins.  Bartlett for Harris is a solid advantage for the Rays.  So overall the trade is pretty even.  The Rays open up their outfield logjam and the Twins deal from a position of strength.  Excellent all around and I respect both GMs for making a move that will be deemed risky from fans of both teams.

by Sky Kalkman on Nov 29, 2007 12:17 PM EST reply actions  

Brian Barton
Anyone else have a feeling that we might take him in the Rule 5?

OF isn't really a position of need for us, but he's well-regarded, he has some upper minors experience, and Huntington would be pretty familiar with him.

I'm thinking that someone in Cleveland must have been pulling for the guy while he worked up through the system, and not too many people have left the Indians between last year and this one...

by Vlad on Nov 29, 2007 1:42 PM EST reply actions  

Brian Barton
Don't know much about him, but I see that he is not on the 40 man. Based on his numbers, I would not jump at him because he Ks too much and has not shown much power. Plus he bats right and we need some everyday players who bat left.

by thegunner on Nov 29, 2007 2:20 PM EST reply actions  

Barton
I would be absolutely shocked if the Pirates DIDN'T take him.  I was thinking the same thing when BA put their Rule 5 preview out.

It's the perfect storm...new GM from Cleveland, a semi-prospect blocked in Cleveland, all the overtures about getting more prospects in the system...

If they trade Nady, start Pearce in RF that would allow McClouth to play CF with Barton backing up the corners and possibly (but I hope not) Duffy to back up CF.

He's a 20-20 talent at the majors within a few years in the right environment.

by Tricky Kid on Nov 29, 2007 2:51 PM EST reply actions  

Giants?
What category do the Giants fall into, well run, or dumb? They've hired Ed Creech as a senior advisor for scouting. Confirmed on their webpage.

by Thunder on Nov 29, 2007 10:54 PM EST reply actions  

It depends . . .
. . . on whether they have him scouting baseball players.

by WTM on Nov 29, 2007 10:59 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep
evaluating amateur talent.

by Thunder on Nov 29, 2007 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

umm...
i didn't think that was an unanswered question.  adding creech is like the cherry on a crap sundae, though (much to rajai davis' benefit) sabean seems to have let up a bit on his plan to field an offense entirely over the age of 35.

by johnnycuff on Nov 29, 2007 11:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Here's a couple other rumors
about potential trade partners:

...The (White) Sox are among the teams interested in Japanese free-agent outfielder Kosuke Fukudome, a rival GM says, and also are exploring a possible deal for Pirates left fielder Jason Bay...

Padres Class AAA third baseman Chase Headley is heavily in demand. The Red Sox wanted him in a deal for Coco Crisp, and the Pirates are aggressively pursuing him in exchange for Xavier Nady and Nate McLouth. The Padres are reluctant to move Headley, who could end up in left field.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7506740

by puget sound pirate on Nov 30, 2007 2:03 AM EST reply actions  

Cool.
The more the merrier on Bay bids, although the Sox don't have much high-ceiling stuff to trade right now. Have to start with Gio and build from there, I guess.

Nady+Nate>Crisp.

by Vlad on Nov 30, 2007 3:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Headley
Dejan pretty strongly implied in his Q/A that the Headley rumor is bogus.

by WTM on Nov 30, 2007 7:26 AM EST up reply actions  

I can see Towers on the horn with
friends in the press driving up the value of Headley to see what he can get for him and the rumor being BS. I think Dejan brought up a possibility of Wilson getting traded to the Cards and they go out today and pick up Izturis. Do they have a need for Wilson now?

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071130&content_id=2314436&vkey=hotstove2007&fe xt=.jsp

This time of year what is implied and what is accurate can never be truly defined. Huntington is as new to Dejan as he is with any of us, so...

by puget sound pirate on Nov 30, 2007 6:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Cards still in the hunt
Sure St. Louis will still be interested in Wilson. Hasn't it been proven to be a successful formula, to have BOTH Izturis and Wilson?

by NW Pirate fan on Nov 30, 2007 7:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Which makes sense
I just never did see what was in that deal for the Padres.  I am also getting the impression that he has some growing issues with the credibility of the new sheriffs, but I am already predisposed against them, so I may well be reading between the lines.  Listening to Kyle Stark the other day on XM, I got the impression that they have set up another formidable BS machine, and that dissembling is what Nutting wants from all of his people.  We are screwed until the spirit moves this bastard to sell.

by RichieHebner on Nov 30, 2007 6:12 PM EST reply actions  

Look at what the Padres needs are right now.
They want a right handed corner outfielder and are probably not going to resign Cameron to play centerfield. They recently brought in Geoff Jenkins for negotiations. The Padres are a thrifty organization and probably are out of the running for Jones and Rowand. Who does that leave out there for them to get? A deal with the Angels for outfield help is a posssibility.

I can see them listening to what the Bucs have to say but the Padres finalizing the deal is a whole other story.

by puget sound pirate on Nov 30, 2007 7:03 PM EST up reply actions  

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