Reds Trade Josh Hamilton to Rangers

by Charlie on Dec 21, 2007 6:43 PM EST in News Comment 10 comments

The Reds have dealt outfielder Josh Hamilton to the Rangers for pitcher Edinson Volquez and minor league reliever Danny Herrera.

This isn't a terrible move by the Reds, but it's not a fantastic one, either. Volquez is a good prospect who made great strides with his control and repertoire after a poor beginning to his season at Class A+ Bakersfield. He ended the year in the Rangers' rotation and pitched well. Herrera has posted some impressive minor league stats and he seems like a fun player (he throws a good screwball-like changeup that's sometimes below 60 MPH). But he's 5'8" and his fastball tops out at 86. It seems like he's pretty similar to Carlos Guevara, the short screwball-throwing reliever who the Reds left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft in the last two seasons. Obviously, the Reds didn't take Guevara too seriously as a prospect (he's now with the Padres), so I doubt they'll take Herrera too seriously, either. So mostly this trade comes down to Hamilton for Volquez.

Hamilton obviously has personal issues, and one wonders how healthy he's going to be next year, but he hit well both at home and on the road last year, and he'll be under the Rangers' control for probably his entire prime. Adam Dunn may be gone after 2008 and Ken Griffey is slowing down; even with Jay Bruce and a couple of other decent outfield prospects, I'd have preferred to keep Hamilton around if I were the Reds. Slugging outfielders don't grow on trees, and anyway, if I were a Reds fan, I'd be concerned that this trade would be an excuse to see more of what Norris Hopper can do or something. Volquez could become a very good starter, though.

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Could we say

this is approximately what we would get for Snell? If the Reds had offered Hamilton for Snell, would you have taken it? Aside from the fact you could turn around and unload a surplus outfielder or two in the bargain, would it be worth it to fill one hole by creating another?

by bucdaddy on Dec 22, 2007 10:10 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

no way

that pitching hole is much, much harder to fill than the outfield hole. look at what carlos silva got in free agency (4yr $48m) compared to what geoff jenkins did (2yr $13m). both would be roughly replacement-level filler at their respective holes but the difference in value is huge.

by johnnycuff on Dec 22, 2007 11:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jenkins...

is an older dude, whereas Silva is at least nominally in his prime. I'd think a more accurate comparison would be Silva to Jose Guillen. There's still a gap there, but I don't think it's as large as you do. And I think the Mariners, at least, would disagree strongly with the notion that Silva is a replacement-level guy.

by Charlie on Dec 22, 2007 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

you're right that jose guillen is a much better comparison.

as for silva, bill bavasi obviously disagrees with my assessment, though i'm not counting that one too harshly against myself. all of silva's comps through age 28 ended up as relievers -- most recognizably paul quantrill, darren dreifort and former bucco and freddy kruger look-alike julian tavarez -- and ended up there sooner rather than later. hardly any of them made more than a few starts after age 28, excepting tavarez last year for boston's walking-wounded rotation. in 4 years he'll be a 12 million dollar swingman - but that's the cost of filling a rotation hole this offseason.

by johnnycuff on Dec 22, 2007 8:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That isn't the type of trade...

I've been talking about making. One might think that Snell would have more value on the trade market than Volquez, just because Snell is "proven" or whatever. And I'd want the Pirates to get multiple minor leaguers, not a player who's a similar age and experience level as Snell.

by Charlie on Dec 22, 2007 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess that's my question/point,

just how "proven" is Snell? Two seasons as a full-time starter, one well under 100 ERA+ and one well over (his career number is 100), but look at how the one well over was acheived month by month: 46, 109, 62, 151, 123, 71 (that's the OPS+ against him, BTW, so April = excellent, July/August = terrible). I'm cherry-picking small samples sizes, of course -- probably every pitcher has erratic seasons like that -- but another point is, a sample size of two years is all we have to go on for Snell.

So again: How "proven" is he? Enough to pull "multiple" minor leaguers? I have to wonder. I have no idea whether a guy with his build and stuff has any upside coming or if he is what he is right now. Do I want to gamble 2-3 top prospects on the answer?

by bucdaddy on Dec 22, 2007 4:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Where is the hole?

I'm just curious why everyone thinks we have a huge hole in the outfield? Nady isn't a bad baseball player. He's not a great one, but he's not bad. And as far as I can tell, everyone's favorite minor league player of the year, Steve Pearce, is now a right fielder.

If anything, I'd think our huge hole is at third base or behind the plate, and I'm not ready to rule out Ronnie...

by bryanzane on Dec 23, 2007 10:13 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

An upgrade at catcher or third base would be very helpful, but pitching, especially starting pitching, is what needs to improve.

Viva Clemente!

by Roberto on Dec 23, 2007 11:18 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nady's below-average.

He won't kill you, but he's like 30th-40th percentile as a corner OF starter, so the potential to upgrade is definitely there.

The problem with us is that we only have one real elite-level player (Bay, assuming he rebounds), and then a bunch of guys who range from average to below-average. It's easy to find an average player to plug in for a complete zero, but it's a lot harder to find a good player to plug in for a mediocre one. In that sense, we were actually better off five years ago...

by Vlad on Dec 24, 2007 7:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Snell vs Volquez

Snell and Volquez are similar talents, but yeah I'd have to say Snell is a bit more proven and so would be worth a little more than "one Hamilton".

But pitchers are always riskier bets, so if the Pirates can turn Snell into one "almost-certain" hot rookie bat that they can build around, plus a couple of longshots, they should most certainly take it.

ScoutingBook: Top Baseball Prospects, Closer Watch, more!

by scoutingbook on Dec 23, 2007 3:07 AM EST reply actions 0 recs