Community Projection: Zach Duke

by Charlie Wilmoth on Feb 7, 2007 7:16 PM EST in News

UPDATE: The Duke projections are now closed.

Zach Duke is the first pitcher in our community projections. Projecting him will be tough - how should we interpret the excellent end to his 2006 season? Should we worry about his lack of strikeouts, or focus on the way he seemed to walk fewer batters as the year went on?

Let me know in the comments by predicting Duke's 2007 ERA, innings pitched, strikeouts and walks.

X is still open. Chris Duffy is now closed. Here are the results:

NAME	POS.	COMMUNITY	ZiPS
Ronny Paulino	C	.271/.334/.414	.272/.327/.378
Adam LaRoche	1B	.281/.350/.539	.279/.345/.526
Freddy Sanchez	2B	.314/.360/.436	.306/.348/.432
Jack Wilson	SS	.273/.314/.373	.270/.312/.377
Jose Bautista	3B/OF	.255/.343/.436	.255/.338/.431
Jose Castillo	2B/3B	.259/.307/.404	.256/.304/.388
Jason Bay	LF	.294/.398/.564	.278/.378/.521
Chris Duffy	CF	.285/.340/.387	.274/.326/.389

Again, the community and ZiPS are on the same page.

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Comments

That's interesting

The community is generally more optimistic about Duffy than I am, and I thought I was his chief defender. I'll have to think about Duke. Way more potential in the pitchers for wild performance swings.

by bucdaddy on Feb 7, 2007 8:19 PM EST reply actions

Castillo

AP reports Jose, the last arb-eligible Pirate, has signed a one-year deal. Doesn't say for how much, but you can make a good guess. He wanted $2.2M, the Bux offered $1.8M.

by bucdaddy on Feb 7, 2007 9:08 PM EST reply actions

Duke

ERA/IP/K/BB

4.35/225/120/60

by bucdaddy on Feb 7, 2007 10:50 PM EST reply actions

Duke

I think he puts it together, in large part due to reduced walks.

3.77/222/136/38

by escroll on Feb 7, 2007 11:26 PM EST reply actions

Duke?

I can't decide if it will be one or the other, so i will give 2 lines: 3.88/206/118/54 5.12/206/103/62

by bryanzane on Feb 7, 2007 11:27 PM EST reply actions

Duke

I just looked at his history in the majors and minors, and while before I liked him, but didn't love him, all that has changed. I am increasingly optimistic about Duke, especially with his low HR rate.

3.62/200IP/115K/57 BB

by chetthespian on Feb 7, 2007 11:39 PM EST reply actions

Duke

4.47/185/115/62

by matskralc on Feb 8, 2007 1:25 AM EST reply actions

Duke

4.10/230/135/70

by Bukanier on Feb 8, 2007 4:10 AM EST reply actions

Duke

I'm optimistic as well, but it is going to be tough to have a sub 4 era.

4.05/215/125/50

by The New Guy on Feb 8, 2007 7:14 AM EST reply actions

duke

does anyone else remember his crazy 1st inning stats? if i remember at one point in july his era was around 9.00 in the 1st. being a control pitcher, maybe he needs to warm up better.

if he can get out of the first inning without getting shelled this year, i think it's worth half a run.

3.95/220/145/55

by johnnycuff on Feb 8, 2007 10:35 AM EST reply actions

Duke

4.10/230/130/65, and 12-15 wins

by gonfalon on Feb 8, 2007 11:12 AM EST reply actions

3.25/250/141/57

Top 5 in Cy Young voting.

azibuck

by azibuck on Feb 8, 2007 12:00 PM EST reply actions

zach

4.01/193/125/65

by bolton on Feb 8, 2007 1:28 PM EST reply actions

Duke

I'm surprised by all the lofty projections of Duke, especially in the innings pitched category. I also don't think his stuff is good enough to sustain an ERA much below 4.50, let alone 4.00.

That said,

4.30/200/120/60

by Willton on Feb 8, 2007 3:11 PM EST reply actions

Yeah, seriously.

Duke's good, but Top 10 Pitcher In The National League good (which is about what all these ERA and IP projections would put him)? I don't really think so.

by matskralc on Feb 8, 2007 7:41 PM EST up reply actions

But ...

Duke pitched 215 innings last year, and Tracy (or maybe it was Littlebrain) has said he feels comfortable upping the kiddies' workload about 20 innings a year. I really don't figure Duke to put up 235, so I split the difference, is how I came to my figure. He was basically an average pitcher in '06, at least ERA wise. I'm making him a little above average this year, bit lower ERA achieved by dropping his BB/IP.

by bucdaddy on Feb 8, 2007 10:34 PM EST up reply actions

If he stays healthy

he should go pretty deep into most of his games--moreso than last year due to the slightly thinner bullpen. But yes, a sub 4 era doesn't seem reasonable.

by The New Guy on Feb 8, 2007 10:36 PM EST up reply actions

Why are you surprised?

His highest ERA before last year was barely over 3, and you don't think he has the stuff to sustain much below 4.50? He's got the stuff, and I say that having watched him several times, not just looking at his (sparkling) track record.

azibuck

by azibuck on Feb 9, 2007 9:22 AM EST up reply actions

"Before last year?"

He's only had one full year in the majors! You're pointing to his minor league ERA as evidence of his stuff? Come on man, you should know better than taking minor league ERA on its face as evidence of skill. I like Duke, but he doesn't strikeout many guys. He's got good command and keeps the ball on the ground, but if you want to be dominant (and a sub-4.00 is one requirement to be dominant) you have to get guys out at the plate. Duke will be fine this year, but expecting a sub-4.00 ERA is totally unreasonable.

by Willton on Feb 9, 2007 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Yes, yes I am

pointing to his minor league ERA as evidence of his stuff, although it says right there that I said that NOT JUST looking at his minor league stats.

It sure wasn't an overpowering fastball that blitzed him through the minors, was it? Reasonable people can disagree about how he'll pitch this year, but if you don't think his stuff is good, I'll have to assume you haven't watched, or don't know what you're watching.

azibuck

by azibuck on Feb 9, 2007 2:29 PM EST up reply actions

Last I checked,

I wasn't a scout, and I don't believe you are either. So if you're going to say his stuff is good but the numbers don't match, I have a feeling that you may be biased or a poor judge of performance. Me, I don't trust what I see all the time. Braden Looper looks like a good pitcher, but I know for a fact that he's not.

by Willton on Feb 9, 2007 7:00 PM EST up reply actions

geez

Put down the spreadsheets and watch a freakin game, man!!!1

by matskralc on Feb 10, 2007 1:29 AM EST up reply actions

Duke

Past ERA, especially at entirely different levels, is a terrible predictor of future ERA.
Duke's strikeout rates have trended sharply downward as he advanced in level. Last year he struck out 4.89 per 9 innings. That is not Top 10 Stuff In The National League.
Duke is a groundball pitcher. The Pirates have, to be generous, a bad defense.

None of this adds up to Duke being one of the best pitchers in the league, posting a sub-4.00 ERA. I sure wouldn't mind if he was and did, but let's be fairly realistic here.

by matskralc on Feb 9, 2007 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Duke

OK. How should his minor league record be examined? As Charlie noted, Glavine didn't strike out a ton of guys early, and neither did Maddux for that matter.
Duke's level trended sharply upward as he decreased his strikeout rate. I certainly hope this year is not last year, and I don't know why anyone would predict this year based on his 2006 performance alone.
Oh, Duke's a groundball pitcher? Then what's your point about the strikeouts? And, they had a bad defense last year. I think there are reasons to believe their defense could be anywhere from slightly to somewhat improved this year.

Here's my realism: I've watched him pitch, and think he's much better than he showed last year. I think he has a chance to be brilliant, based on personal observation and his track record at every level including the major leagues.

Yes, I freely admit my prediction for him falls into the best-case scenario bin, but I think it's more likely he comes closer to greatness than mediocrity this year.

azibuck

by azibuck on Feb 9, 2007 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Duke is not Glavine or Maddux

Those guys have much better control.

by Willton on Feb 9, 2007 7:01 PM EST up reply actions

Duke

Bad feeling here when it comes to health. I'm thinking like 160 IP. Strikeouts, walks, and ERA will improve from last year though (relative to innings pitched, of course). I'll say: