Pittsburgh vs. Houston, 15 September 2007

by Charlie on Sep 15, 2007 2:02 PM EDT in News Comment 27 comments

7:05 PM, WPGB

Matt Morris (9-9, 4.59) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (8-13, 4.65). Here's the box.

Some links for today:

-P- Former Diamondbacks scouting director and current Nationals assistant GM Mike Rizzo is interested in the Pirates' GM job. As someone who was partly responsible for the ridiculous batch of young hitters the Diamondbacks have, Rizzo seems like he definitely deserves a shot.

-P- With Dave Littlefield gone, the Pirates' front office has booted Tony Armas from the rotation in favor of Bryan Bullington and John Van Benschoten. I actually don't love this particular move, as I don't think any of those three have any upside whatsoever and Armas is pitching the best right now, but since this is the kind of move that actually reflects planning for the future, I'm happy to see it.

-P- Keith Law confirms that GM candidate Tony LaCava was behind the drafting of Adam Lind and Travis Snider, the Jays' two best prospects.

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GM hopefuls and the rotation

At this point, there are four candidates who seem pretty certain either to be interested or have attracted the Bucs' interest. No doubt there are others as well, since Nutting and Coonelly both are very secretive. Of the four whose names keep popping up, I'd probably rank them something like:

Rizzo
Zduriencik
LaCava
Bernazard

Of the four, the one I really wouldn't want is Bernazard. I'm sure he'd be real hot to mine Latin America, which is good, but I don't think his experience with the Mets is very relevant to the Pirates. Minaya is a pretty standard, solve-your-problems-with-money sort of GM. He's a lot better than Steve Phillips, but he's not exactly competing with the Yankees and Red Sox, either. There is no NL team that can compete with the Mets financially except the Cubs, who are handicapped by Hendry, and the Dodgers, who fired a good GM and replaced him with a bad one. With the Braves cutting costs, Minaya has the competently-run-big-spender field to himself in the NL. I'm just not that impressed with the Mets' success, as compared to Rizzo's work in Arizona or Zduriencik's in Mil.

On the rotation issue: The fact that any Pirates' fan would greet it as anything other than unequivocal good news shows just how long it's been since the Bucs were run like a major league team. The season is lost and Armas won't be back. Every start he gets is just as much a wasted resource as the money they're paying him. I don't think much of Bullington or JVB, either, but they'll be here next year. Real major league teams, once the season is lost in September, start planning for next year rather than desperately trying to eek out that 68th win. We haven't seen it done that way within memory, so we've all forgotten that that's how September works in the major leagues.

by WTM on Sep 15, 2007 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Gasp!

But according to Tracy, playing your young guys in September violates the integrity of the game. It doesn't matter if they're more talented than your veterans, it's against "the book".

Personally, I would like to find a copy of this mysterious book and go Fahrenheit 451 on it...

by OmarMoreno18 on Sep 15, 2007 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

It's amazing, isn't it....

On the rotation issue: The fact that any Pirates' fan would greet it as anything other than unequivocal good news shows just how long it's been since the Bucs were run like a major league team.

It's like night and day.

No inane spin
No irrational decisions
Intelligent design becomes a kind of PR

Maybe the Nutting clan has made a fan friendly decision. It sure seems like it.

by steve_z on Sep 15, 2007 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not a bad list.

I'm not too familiar with Bernazard, but I love Rizzo, I've gotten on board with LaCava, and Jack Z has some decent strong points. With our recent history, it just doesn't feel right to have a list of candidates without a huge mistake on it.

by Vlad on Sep 15, 2007 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Zduriencik

Have the Pirates followed up by interviewing or contacting him? I ask because our newspaper in Milwaukee reported on Tuesday that Brewers GM Doug Melvin said Pittsburgh hadn't asked permission to talk to Zduriencik yet. Of course a lot can change in a week and I figured you guys would know more than anyone else.

by TheJay on Sep 15, 2007 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tracy

Tracy doesn't exactly sound on board with removing Armas from the rotation.

Manager Jim Tracy said of the rotation change: "There obviously are some things taking place management-wise, and it's very important for us to see what our young pitchers have got."

I'll take any opp to bash Tracy, and it could just be the first sentence there is his usual bluster, but between the lines I'm translating it, "this isn't my idea, but here's what they're telling me to do."

by azibuck on Sep 15, 2007 5:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

IOW

"These bastards better not fire me because Van Benschoten cost us a shot at 72 wins instead of 71."

by WTM on Sep 15, 2007 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Take what you can get

The combination of naive and incompetent that was McClathcy and DL isn't around to employ TRacy anymore. I presume that the combination who replaces them -- Coonelly and anyone with any detectable brain activity -- isn't going to be swayed by lengthy soliloquies in the second person ("You're really intrigued by what Armas can do out of the bullpen") in which the obvious is explained in tones that suggest it's just now been thought of, and in which harebrained bullshit is explained as though it is obvious.

If Tracy wants to keep leaving bread crumbs to lead them to the conclusion that hard managing jobs are beyond his capacity, he can keep it up. The sooner we're rid of everyone who thinks the Izturis trade was a positive, the better -- I'd even suffer with actually being stuck with Cesar if his cretinous acolytes are on the bread lines.

by KPatrick on Sep 15, 2007 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

I know a lot of the posters here are more familiar with how teams operate than I am (or at least they sound like it) but
a) Isn't it, and shouldn't it be, the manager's job to decide who starts? (Especially if you have no GM?)
b) In his last four appearances, JVB has an ERA of 28.09. Is it fair to pitch him against a contender? Don't you have to at least look like you're trying if you're playing the Cubs or DBacks?

by Zadoras on Sep 16, 2007 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Header on last post should have said ...

I agree with Azibuck.

by Zadoras on Sep 16, 2007 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

re:

a) The trend in MLB seems to be shifting more towards the field manager as a middle manager of sorts. Oakland is an extreme case of this, where Beane and the front office pretty much dictate who plays, strategies, etc. The manager's job is to sit there and, what did they say about Howe, look stoic? I see no reason why it should be the manager's job to decide who should be playing. The guys getting paid to evaluate the talent are the front office: I think the manager's job is to make sure everybody gets along and act as an on-the-scene advisor to the front office. Kind of like Joe Torre in New York.

b) Uh, what better way than to find out what JVB has than to pitch him against good teams. What good does parking him on the pine do? And what on earth does "look like you're trying" mean? Is this Tracyesque "integrity of the game" mumbojumbo? Why does pitching a crappy 27-year-old instead of a crappy whatever-Armas-is-year-old somehow mean we've given up. It's precisely this stupid "drive for 75" mentality that has been strangling the Pirates for at least the past 6 years.

by matskralc on Sep 16, 2007 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep in mind, too . . .

JVB is out of options. They can probably get an extra one for him due to the time he missed, but they can only do that with one guy a year and Burnett also is out of options. If JVB shows now that he has a chance to make the team next year, they could request the extra option for Burnett, who has zero chance of pitching in the majors early next year. That way they might not lose either just yet.

As fans, we may figure these guys, especially Burnett, are toast, but I can't fault the Pirates for going to some lengths to see whether they can salvage one or both.

by WTM on Sep 16, 2007 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Burnett

Of the 3 (JVB, BB, SB) I hold out the most hope for Burnett. He's the youngest and seems to know how to pitch better than the other 2. Yes, he doesn't throw as hard and the cliche is that soft-tossers are more pitchers than throwers, but in seeing all 3 Burnett strikes me as the best hope.

When they made JVB a pitcher we all choked. And when they took BB over BJ Upton we all cried. But Burnett up until his arm injury looked to be a very good pitcher, and of the 3 he's had the most success in the majors as well.

What am I getting at? That I hope any extra option definitely goes to Burnett as his long-term value is likely higher. Not saying much, but it is what it is.

by OmarMoreno18 on Sep 16, 2007 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My view is just the opposite.

Burnett started out with the least pure stuff of the three, and his arm injuries were the worst by several orders of magnitude. As such, I think he's probably pretty much done as a useful player.

It doesn't help his case that he's never had a really successful season above AA.

by Vlad on Sep 16, 2007 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

On top of that . . .

He's still not healthy. He's got one of these mystery elbow problems that won't go away. My guess is he's headed for a second TJ.

by WTM on Sep 16, 2007 9:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

5.02 ERA in 72.1 IP in his MLB Rookie Season

JVB and Bullington would give their big toe for that type of number. Most rookies would.

After that he was hurt, so it's not really fair to gauge him based on that. What he does next year will be the true indicator.

I think it's too easy to fall in love with "stuff" and not on smarts and guile. Personally, I'll take the crafty guys that produce over the throwers who don't any day.

I'm not saying Cy Youngs are in his future, but it's not unreasonable to hope that Burnett can become an effective Jamie Moyer type. And I'll take that as our #5 starter any day.

by OmarMoreno18 on Sep 17, 2007 8:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Two problems

5.02 ERA in 72.1 IP in his MLB Rookie Season

JVB and Bullington would give their big toe for that type of number. Most rookies would.

Zach Duke wouldn't.

Burnett can become an effective Jamie Moyer type.

Jamie Moyer's elbow still works.

Anyway, every year there are dozens of lefty junkballers who could become a Jamie Moyer type if they just . . . uh . . . learned to pitch like Jamie Moyer. So far, only one has.

by WTM on Sep 17, 2007 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually, it is unreasonable

He's hurt, again, and quite ineffective. He's two seasons removed from surgery. His rookie year sample is so small. It was a fluke. Nothing he's done before or since points to him doing that. You really have to watch him -- he nibbles and barely gets by AT AAA.

You want hope for Burnett? Here's his best hope -- he becomes an effective LOOGY next year and we flip him at the deadline for anything.

Seriously, the dream is dead. Sean Burnett is not good, and there is no reason to ever expect him to be good. You can point to 72 rookie innings all you want, it's just not happening again.

by azibuck on Sep 17, 2007 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes and no.

It's a good season with qualifiers (for a rookie, for a 21-year-old, for a guy who was basically making the jump from AA, etc.), but not that good a season on its individual merits. He had trouble getting outs at AAA that year, but got promoted anyway, then came up and put up an ERA significantly higher than Josh Fogg's. His AAA performance at the start of that year should be a big red flag for people, but it hardly ever gets mentioned.

Finesse guys often don't project forward as well as power guys when they advance through the upper minors, and Burnett (even at his best) is an extreme finesse guy. It's possible that even a fully healthy Burnett wouldn't have had what it takes to break the AA ceiling. It happens: look at Kip Bouknight or Rico Washington.

by Vlad on Sep 17, 2007 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow, what a bunch of pessimists...

You must be Pirate fans or something <g>.

Let's be clear -- I am not touting Sean Burnett as a rotation anchor. The original point was that I'd rather roll the dice with him over JVB or Bullington.

Time will tell, but I still think Burnett will be a serviceable major league pitcher. Maybe in the pen, maybe a swing guy, but serviceable. I don't see much hope for the other two.

Trust the eyes more than statistics. Burnett's rookie season wasn't great by any stretch, but he had some very good starts where he had a plan and looked like a major league pitcher. I can't say that for the other two.

by OmarMoreno18 on Sep 17, 2007 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Rookie year

Actually, his rookie year was much better than the final numbers show. He started off 4-2, 2.18, then things went south along with his elbow. He allowed no HRs in 7 games before the elbow problems started, 9 in 6 games after.

Nevertheless, whether it's a small sample size or not (and Duke provides some lessons there), he's not that guy any more.

Trust the eyes more than statistics.

I think that's part of the point.

by WTM on Sep 17, 2007 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hate to say this ...

but his getting yanked from the rotation doesn't necessarily mean we've seen the last of Armas. It could well be they're thinking, "We know what we have in Armas, and it ain't much, so let's see if either of these other two guys suck even more so we'll know if we have to consider bringing him back." As poor as Armas has been most of the year, he's also been better than Duke. As of right now the No. 5 spot is still undecided for next year, and unless they're going to go out and throw money at somebody, I'd rank our options for that job as follows:

Armas
Duke
Bullington
JVB
prayer

by bucdaddy on Sep 15, 2007 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

$5 million

Is why Armas won't be back next year. Your 2/3/4 options can do approximately the same job for near-minimum.

by matskralc on Sep 15, 2007 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

"Approximately the same job ..."?

Beg to differ. In 13 games (8 starts) in the second half, here's Armas' line:

.239/.310/.393 OPS .703

That's not "approximately the same," that's SUBSTANTIALLY better than what 2/3/4 have been giving us (for TWO YEARS in Duke's case). Now am I saying Armas is any good? No. We've all been fooled (cough bucdaddy/duffy cough) by small sample sizes before, and brief bursts of competence. All I'm saying is, that's a far better stretch than the other guys have shown in ANY sample size since Duke's 2005. And to help the team in the 5-hole, Armas doesn't even have to be THAT good. He just has to be mediocre, an attribute that is underappreciated in that role, if not exactly undervalued. I mean look, you can stick JVB in the 5-hole for a season if saving money is what you want to do, and he'll give you a chance to win how many games out of every 10? 1? Maybe 2? Or Duke. He'll give you a shot at maybe 3. A guy who gives you a decent chance just to win half of them, that's about a six-game advantage over a season. That's a BIG edge.

Well, regardless of any of my theoretical BS, IMHO he's pitched decent enough to at least get consideration to come back, if a reasonable price can be worked out. And by "reasonable price" I mean roughly what he got this year.

by bucdaddy on Sep 17, 2007 1:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

BABIP

Armas' second half "improvement" is happening behind the wall of a completely unsustainable .266 batting average on balls in play. Coupled with the uselessness of a second half split (37-35, bucdaddy!), I'm far from convinced.

by matskralc on Sep 17, 2007 7:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fair enough

I'm not either. I simply would not dismiss him from the mix of pitchers under consideration for the 5-spot next year, if he's interested in staying. As he's pitching RIGHT NOW, he's certainly no worse than the 2/3/4 options.* For that matter, he's been pitching better than our No. 4 guy, too.

*--unless Duke rediscovers 2005.

by bucdaddy on Sep 17, 2007 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tony Armas

Hello my name is sludgeworm and I wholeheartedly endorse bucdaddy's endorsement of Tony Armageddeon. At 5 million he would be a good deal, if we buy him out I'm a guessing someone else will take him to the pay window....like the Cards....any similarities between me and bucdaddy are purely coincidental

by sludgeworm on Sep 18, 2007 7:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs