Joe Sheehan: Nate McLouth Could Break Out in 2008

by Charlie on Jan 15, 2008 8:10 PM EST in News

Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectus, in a list of 2008 breakout candidates:

It's not clear whether McLouth can make enough contact to warrant being called a breakout candidate. However, in his career he's 34-for-36 stealing bases, including 22-for-23 in 2007, and that's a key skill for any speed player. Moreover, he nearly doubled his walk rate in '07 and hit for more power. That makes the strikeout rate (more than one every five PA) palatable, if just barely. McLouth's steady improvement over the past two years indicates that he is a good enough player to be an asset as a center fielder and leadoff hitter at his peak. One key split is that McLouth was much better after moving into a semi-regular role on June 17 (.268/.365/.502) than he was as a bench player prior to that (.221/.293/.294).

I'm not sure how much to make of McLouth's OPS as a starter last year, but it is interesting, and he's been a complete waste of time as a pinch hitter throughout his career after accumulating about an eighth of his career plate appearances there. Stick him in the field, and he's fine.

Another 2007 McLouth split that's interesting:

Facing a pitcher for the first time in a game: .222/.318/.353
Facing a pitcher for the second time in a game: .323/.425/.613
Facing a pitcher for the third time in a game: .388/.455/.816

McLouth's career splits in these areas are similar, though less dramatic.

Of course it makes sense that a hitter would improve the second and third time he faced a pitcher. But McLouth's splits in this area are especially extreme - more extreme than any other Pirate regular's. If these numbers mean anything, they suggest McLouth would strongly benefit from having a starting role.

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McLouth

Using young guys as pinch-hitters is almost always a bad idea, since it just plain messes with their heads too much. If you want a player to show up and play consistently well every day, you have to give them a consistent thing to DO.

McLouth was supposed to be a breakout guy last year, too, so the click is ticking here. Let's hope they run him out for 150 games and see what happens!

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by scoutingbook on Jan 16, 2008 5:51 AM EST 0 recs

If PH messes with their heads

They aren't mentally strong enough to be major league players anyway.

by azibuck on Jan 16, 2008 9:50 AM EST 0 recs

Some guys...

...just aren't cut out to be pinch hitters, though. They need that second/third PA to get a read on a pitcher.

Case in point: Abe Nunez.

by Vlad on Jan 16, 2008 10:25 AM EST 0 recs

His PH numbers

don't really matter much. Performance in that job tends to be wildly inconsistent from year to year, even with guys who are known as good PHers, porimarily (I guess) because it's ALWAYS a small sample size. I mean, if a guy gets 40 or so PH appearances that's a lot. So it's not at all surprising to see year-by-year PH BAs like .178, .429, .333, 125.

I wouldn't put any stock in that.

by bucdaddy on Jan 16, 2008 10:27 AM EST 0 recs

You mean Nunez?

The PH sample for him in my link is 274 AB... not exactly chump change.

by Vlad on Jan 16, 2008 1:21 PM EST up 0 recs

Abe

I actually did some research for the 4- or 5-yr period when Abe was the Pirates' #1 or #2 PH every year. I looked at every player who had significant PH appearances during that time in even one year. Not only was Abe the worst, but he was the worst by a huge margin. The fact that nobody with the team's management seemed to notice how much harm he was doing in the role they'd assigned him is one of the best arguments for the Pirates of the last decade being the worst-run team in the post-WWII MLB era.

by WTM on Jan 16, 2008 1:57 PM EST up 0 recs

The point was about fluctuations

You guys aren't wrong, clearly, but bucdaddy's point was about fluctuations, even in good PH. And even in horrendous PH as it turns out. Nunez, as a PH, ranged from .038 (1/26!) to .250. I'll agree some guys aren't cut out for it, but Nunez is a pretty crappy player. ... to prove the point.

by azibuck on Jan 16, 2008 3:06 PM EST up 0 recs

Insult to crappy players

I wasn't speaking to the point about fluctuations, which was clearly correct. I was just beating my own drum.

The hilarious thing about Abe is that, yeah, his PH performance did fluctuate, but the spread ran from terrible to a level so dismal that it doesn't have a name.

by WTM on Jan 16, 2008 5:43 PM EST up 0 recs