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Four Bad Offseasons

Spring Training is approaching, and I'd like to take stock of the offseason so far. Keeping in mind that there are a ton of free agents still available, here are the four teams I think hurt themselves the most this winter. (My article about the five best offseasons is here.)

GIANTS: When a Pirates fan feels as free as I do to call the Giants the worst, stupidest franchise in baseball, well, San Francisco's got a problem. Heading into this offseason, the Giants were a 71-win team whose lineup managed to be incredibly boring despite the presence of Barry Bonds. Now Bonds is gone, and the Giants' big move this offseason was to sign a scarily inconsistent hitter (Aaron Rowand) to a five-year contract that could hamstring the Giants for years to come. Meanwhile, the Giants have six projected starting offensive players ages 33 or older, and only one projected starter besides Rowand who posted an OPS above .800 last year.  They're also planning on starting four guys with 2007 OBPs below .306, all of whom are at least 33. Nice work, Brian Sabean!

WHITE SOX: Most of the Sox's major moves this offseason - including signing Scott Linebrink and Octavio Dotel to multi-year deals and trading a pair of very high-upside arms in Faustino de los Santos and Gio Gonzalez for Nick Swisher - would've made a lot of sense if the Sox were a 90-win team. But they weren't. They were a 72-win team. Even after their offseason moves, their 2008 forecast is third place with a slight chance of dead last, and they're millions poorer and no longer have any farm system, either. They were probably headed in the wrong direction anyway, but the White Sox's offseason probably ensures that they're going to be in really terrible shape in two years or so.

ASTROS: Like the White Sox, the Astros don't seem to understand the shape their franchise is in. They won 73 games in 2007, so their big moves were... to trade their best reliever for pennies on the dollar, to sign Kaz Matsui and to trade several of their few remaining prospects for Miguel Tejada? Sure, their middle infield will be a lot better, and they're apparently finally going to start phasing out the execrable Brad Ausmus in favor of young catcher J.R. Towles, but this is all deck-chair shuffling. Even in the weak NL Central, the Astros are going nowhere. They could've used this offseason to acknowledge that obvious fact and make some strides toward addressing their uncertain future, but instead they did the exact opposite.

MARINERS: This one is more debatable than the first three, but I still think the Mariners' attempts to catch the Angels are doomed to failure. Seattle somehow managed to win 88 games last year, but by third-order wins, they were 78-84, and their Pythagorean record was 79-83. At least they correctly identified their rotation as one of their big problems, but Carlos Silva isn't a great pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, and he isn't a great fit for Safeco Field, either. Erik Bedard is a legitimately terrific pitcher, but Seattle gave up a king's ransom to get him, and he's not going to get them to the playoffs. Texas and Oakland have acknowledged the Angels' clear superiority and started rebuilding projects; in a couple years, the Mariners are going to wish they had, too.

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First three dead on..
but Seattle does not belong on this list, at least not yet.  The fact is they were an 88 win team and Bedard has outstanding stuff.  They gave up a lot in prospects but they have an Ace for two years.  I think putting them on this list is premature.  If they end up signing Bedard to a contract extension then no way they can be on this list.  I think the Twins belong here before the M's for not getting a better return for the best pitcher in the game (referring to the supposed better offers they had from the Yanks and Sox at the meetings).  Or how about the Cardinals?  Their big move was to acquire Izturis, trade Edmonds and swap a broken down over priced 3b for a broken down overpriced 3b.  

by Slick on Feb 14, 2008 1:15 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

No way on the Mariners
Pretty much for all the reasons stated above.  At least their GM and ownership, incompetent as they are, are going for it.  They sensed they were close (although the Pythag record tells the truth probably) and are making a move.  Wouldn't you love to be in that position....a) To be close and b) to have ownership make a move

Can I suggest to pre-emptively put the Reds on the list?  First they hired Dusty to coach young talent....which he hates to do.  Plus, he's not a great manager.  But mostly because it seems like they will trade 2-3 of their top shelf prospects for Joe Blanton soon.  Joe Blanton, more like Joe Bland-on.

by Tricky Kid on Feb 14, 2008 7:26 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

"Going for it"
At least their GM and ownership, incompetent as they are, are going for it.

"Going for it" is almost always what causes these really disastrous offseasons. If you're a 78-win team and you're going for it by trying to topple a 94-win team, you're usually going to fail. If you leverage the future of your franchise in order to do that, you're usually just killing yourself.

Hiring Dusty is nearly bad enough to put the Reds on this list, it's true.

by Charlie on Feb 14, 2008 1:46 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

But...
The Mariners were an 88 win team last year (on paper).  They are going to try and take down the Angels for the next 2 years (unless Bedard extends).

That package to the O's was the best package of the offseason, but it's still a bunch of prospects.  All of us here love prospects, but if you look back at the majority of these 4 for 1, 5 for 1 deals, most of them favor the team getting the established guy.  (Don't bring up Lowe and Varitek, there's always an exception).

Adam Jones could have solved either CF or RF for the next 7-10 years in Seattle.  Or he could bomb out.  Seattle feels that Wilkerson and maybe Baleintein can replace his production in the short and medium term.

Tillman has all the tools and skills, but is still only 19/20 years old.  Butler did not have a great year but has a ton of potential.  I don't know anything about Mickolio.

Anyway, I would give up Jones/Tillman/Butler for Bedard if I thought I had a chance.  Felix and Bedard is a hell of a 1-2 punch.

It's not as if this left the Mariners farm system bare, either.  They kept Clement and Truinfel and feel very high on Michael Saunders as a CF in the long-term.

If you want to get something, you have to give something up.

I stand by my original statement that it's good to see a management team "go for it".

by Tricky Kid on Feb 14, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Quibble
They were an 88-win team in the real world. They were a 79-win team on paper (i.e. Pythag).

by Vlad on Feb 14, 2008 9:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jesus....
That is really splitting hairs.  Don't be a douche.
When you look back on teams, their records are written down.  A lot of times on things called "paper".
Just let it go and stop being nitty.

by Tricky Kid on Feb 15, 2008 11:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

OK
But that's not what the phrase "on paper" means in a sports-related context to 99.999% of people.

by matskralc on Feb 15, 2008 2:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

It's no wonder
That this is one of the least populated team sites.  Many other teams will have 50+ comments on any benign thread.  Here it's the same 5-10 people in your little clique, trying to show how smart they are and knowledgable about prospects and baseball.

Keep up the good job of wordsmithing and squashing any opinion different than the hive-mind.

by Tricky Kid on Feb 15, 2008 10:14 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey now
Take a nap. Walk it off. First of all, this isn't one of the least populated team sites (on SBN, I assume you mean), and to the extent that it doesn't have 50+ comments on every thread, maybe that has something to do with the fact that the Pirates have had 15 consecutive losing seasons, or that Pittsburgh isn't a huge or particularly tech-savvy market. If the lack of comments had to do with the commenters, one would think that there would be a huge group of Pirates fans congregating elsewhere, but there isn't. And if you think that other teams' blogs don't have commenters that quibble with one another, you should actually read the threads sometime. In the meantime, I'm not entirely sure what the context of your complaints is, but in this thread, YOU are the one who called someone a "douche" for a very minor correction that he even admitted was a "quibble." If you had simply said, "Heh, you're right" or just ignored it, there would have been no problem.

by Charlie on Feb 16, 2008 1:59 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I see what you are saying Charlie...
but you have to admit that if they stay healthy and a couple things go right (Beltre creeping back up to 30 HRs, Johjima finally taking that extra step, Hernandez getting more consistent) they could be pretty good all the sudden.

Of course if Ibanez, Vidro, Batista, Silva and the like simultaneously slip with age those forward steps will be negated.

by The New Guy on Feb 14, 2008 9:00 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I don't think...
...Aaron Rowand is necessarily a bad signing. He's got a whole lot of glove value, even if the bat slips back this year.

I think the Mariners are going to miss Adam Jones four or five years down the road. Even if they manage to catch and pass the Angels, they'd definitely be the weak sister among the AL playoff teams.

by Vlad on Feb 14, 2008 10:10 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

so
it's the most wonderful time of the year!

Pitchers and catchers, please report for duty...

by bryanzane on Feb 14, 2008 10:27 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

Nice the Bucs Are Not on this List!
Nice that we don't have the bucs on this list. So maybe this offseason doing nothing was the best move?

If the players on the Bucs do not improve this year, then next year could be a fire sale. Bay, Nady, Wilson, LaRouche all could be gone. Duke and Maholm were be possible goners too.

I hope the players understand that this year there can be no excuses for not playing their best. They need to show the fans and the new Management that they (the players)are not the reason for the "losing culture".

by zogger on Feb 14, 2008 1:08 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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